IEF Lecture - BP Energy Outlook 2035

Mark Finley, General Manager, Global Energy Markets, and US Economics, BP, presented the fourth annual edition of the Outlook, which for the first time sets out BP’s view of the most likely developments in global energy markets further beyond 2030 to 2035, based on up-to-date analysis.

The Outlook reveals that global energy consumption is expected to rise by 41 per cent from 2012 to 2035 – compared to 55 per cent over the last 23 years (52 per cent over the last twenty) and 30% over the last ten. Ninety five per cent of that growth in demand is expected to come from the emerging economies, while energy use in the advanced economies of North America, Europe and Asia as a group is expected to grow only very slowly – and begin to decline in the later years of the forecast period.

Shares of the major fossil fuels are converging with oil, natural gas and coal, each expected to make up around 27% of the total mix by 2035 and the remaining share coming from nuclear, hydroelectricity and renewables. Among fossil fuels, gas is growing fastest, increasingly being used as a cleaner alternative to coal for power generation as well as in other sectors.

Interesting questions answered in Mr Finley’s presentation include: "Is there enough energy to meet growing demand? Can we meet demand reliably? And what are the consequences of meeting demand? In other words, is the supply sufficient, secure and sustainable?”