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New Data Shows Oil Demand Exceeded 2019 Levels in March, Production Lags

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia – New data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) shows that global oil demand surpassed pre-pandemic levels in March, while production of crude oil was stuck at 97 percent of the level before the onset of COVID-19.

The JODI oil and gas databases were updated on Monday with more than 50 countries reporting data for the latest month of March 2022. The March data submissions account for 70% of global oil demand and 55% of global crude production.

Highlights from the aggregated total of countries that reported oil data for March include:

  • Oil demand in March was at 101% of 2019 levels while crude production was only at 97%.
    • Demand exceeded 2019 levels despite sharp declines in China.
    • Crude production is materially lower now vs. 2019 in Nigeria, US, Angola, Iraq, and the UK.
  • Demand for gasoline, diesel, and LPG exceeded pre-COVID levels in March, but jet fuel demand was 25% lower than 2019 levels.
  • Product inventories in March fell by 32.4 mb (slightly more than the seasonal average) and are now 99.8 mb below the 5-year average.
  • Crude inventories in March increased by 12.7 mb (slightly less than the seasonal average) and are now 284 mb below the 5-year average.

Country-level highlights include:

  • Saudi Arabia
    • March crude production increased by 75 kb/d to 10.30 mb/d. It is now 2.16 mb/d above year-ago levels.
    • Crude exports in March declined by 72 kb/d to 7.24 mb/d and product exports declined by 207 kb/d to 1.49 mb/d.
    • Crude inventories declined by 1.3 mb in March to 135.8 mb.
  • United States:
    • Crude production in March increased by 356 kb/d to 11.67 mb/d. It is now 508 kb/d above year-ago levels, but still 1.15 mb/d below March 2020 levels.
    • Total product exports in March increased by 921 kb/d to 5.93 mb/d – the highest level recorded in JODI database.
    • March crude inventories fell by 11.1 mb to 977 mb and are now at their lowest level since 2007.
  • China:
    • Total product demand fell by 1.47 mb/d in March to 14.49 mb/d and was 688 kb/d below year-ago levels.
    • China's crude imports fell by 1.15 mb/d in March to 10.09 mb/d.
    • China's total product exports increased marginally by 22 kb/d in March to 1.03 mb/d but were 660 kb/d below year-ago levels.

JODI gas data shows March demand was at 94% of year-ago levels and below the 5-year average while production was at 97% of 2021 levels and above the 5-year average. Gas inventories declined by 8.4 bcm (less than the seasonal average) and are now 20.7 bcm below the 5-year average.

The full JODI oil and gas database will be available today at noon BST and can be viewed at jodidb.org or jodidata.org. The next update will be on Monday, June 20th with data through April 2022.

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