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IEF Lecture: JBC Energy Market Watch

10 May 2018

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum, Dr Sun Xiansheng hosted Mr Alexander Pögl, Head of Business Development of JBC Energy to present on recent oil market dynamics and JBC demand and supply projections at the IEF Headquarters in Riyadh on 10 May 2018. The presentation provided perspectives on OPEC supply strategies, US tight oil production and the repercussions of crude quality changes, including the impact of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) bunker fuel regulation on oil markets.

On the demand side, Mr Pögl highlighted that after almost six years of sustained demand growth, increases in consumption may slow due to rising prices for transport fuels that, out of all refined products, are forecast to remain the strongest force to shape the dynamics of demand. Pointing at a recent upswing in European oil demand, gasoline and diesel demand are projected to come under pressure in the 2020s.

On the supply side, Mr Pögl touched on the interaction between OPEC and US tight oil supplies driven by the Permian Basin. Though the first phase of US tight oil production was largely absorbed by US refineries, new production will be directed to international markets after infrastructure constraints are overcome to draw US stockpiles to international markets. He also noted that technology advances allow the industry to operate with greater efficiency. This has not only enabled more resilient unconventional production but is also likely to decrease conventional decline rates. The presentation concluded by discussing the IMO Bunker Fuels Regulation that limits sulphur emissions to 0.5 percent globally by 2020 and what this entails for LNG and oil product demand and how industry can best meet this challenge.