Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum and the President of the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center welcomed participants in the Third IEF-KAPSARC Thought-Leaders’ Roundtable discussion on oil markets at IEF headquarters in Riyadh on 16 February.
Discussions focused on the theme: "Post-Paris Agreement: A World of Peak Oil Demand?"
Many of the parties to the ‘Paris Agreement’, that entered force on 4 November 2016, anticipated that its subsequent implementation would lead to a world of peak oil demand. However, the transition through a demand peak, should investors expect it to arrive within the time horizons of their medium-term oilfield developments, might increase price volatility. Paradoxically, a reduced reliance on fossil fuels among consumer nations might lead to periods of supply shortage while at other points of an accentuated cycle, exporters may compete for market share after giving up hope of a rebound in prices.
Energy Ministers gathered at the 15th International Energy Forum on 26-28 September 2016 called for an enhanced role of the producer-consumer dialogue and greater market transparency. An inclusive and energy-technology neutral dialogue among producing and consuming countries will offer more clarity to investors and market participants, and so may contribute to a more orderly and cost efficient transformation of energy markets. On one hand, this will facilitate more orderly transitions between investment cycles in the interest of overall energy market security. On the other hand, accelerated deployment of energy efficiency and new energy technologies in oil producing and consuming growth markets will foster energy productivity gains across regions and help reduce greenhouse gas emissions more swiftly, placing global economic growth on more advanced and healthier footings.
The 3rd IEF-KAPSARC Thought Leaders’ Roundtable invited thought leaders and government and industry representatives to collectively look beyond the corners of these policy turns and physical market developments to assess what their likely impact is on the dynamics of global oil supply and demand in the medium and long term.
This roundtable launched a year-long engagement to explore scenarios for producers and consumers navigating the transition to a lower carbon energy future. During the year, participants will be invited to contribute intellectually to the development of modelling infrastructure to describe the transition and its impacts on the global economy - particularly the risks of increased volatility in the oil market and the potential impacts on international energy relations. Workshops in The Netherlands, Dubai, UK and Saudi Arabia with a joint study report to be issued late in 2017.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The Seventh IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks took place on 15 February 2017 at the IEF Headquarters in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Dr Sun Xiansheng, the Secretary General of the International Energy Forum opened the Symposium together with the Secretary General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, HE Mohammed Sanusi Barkindo and the Director, Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks of the International Energy Agency, Dr Kamel Ben Naceur.
HE Khalid Al-Falih, Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources (Saudi Arabia), delivered a keynote speech, and participants also received a special address delivered on behalf of HE Shamshad Akhtar, Under Secretary General of the United Nations & Executive Secretary of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
Dr Sun Xiansheng, IEF Secretary General, moderated discussions of the first session with a focus on the latest OPEC and IEA energy outlooks and a comparative analysis of short-, medium-, and long-term energy outlooks released by the IEA and OPEC in 2016 provided by the IEF-RFF Introductory Background Paper. HE Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa Al Khalifa, Minister of Oil, Bahrain chaired Session II on Industry views on short-, medium-, and long-term energy outlooks, and HE Mohamed Zayed Awad Mousa, Minister of Petroleum, Sudan chaired the final session on the subject of Transportation.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) each year publish energy market outlooks based on the rigorous analysis of available statistical data, market fundamentals, macroeconomic developments, policy trends and assumptions. In addition, on the occasion of the biennial International Energy Forum Ministerial meetings, both organisations present focused findings that they derive from their analysis and outlooks. The Seventh Symposium is part of a wider trilateral work programme undertaken by the IEA, IEF and OPEC in recognition of mandates from the Energy Ministers of the IEF and G20 countries. The underlying principle of the Symposium is to improve transparency, and facilitate comparability among the various outlook scenarios, and help advance a data-driven and well informed producer-consumer dialogue.
In addition to the Joint IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposia on Energy Outlooks, the joint collaboration involves High-Level Workshops on Physical and Financial Energy Market Interactions and Gas and Coal Market Outlooks.
Additional detail about the Seventh Joint Symposium will be forthcoming shortly.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The IEF was pleased to host the 1st IEF-EU Energy Day at its headquarters on 14 February 2017. IEF Secretary General, Dr Sun Xiansheng opened the event alongside EU Ambassador HE Michele Cervone d’Urso and noted the importance of this inaugural IEF-EU Energy Day as a first step to strengthened IEF-EU relations, and to better inform and further enrich the producer-consumer dialogue.
Mr Hans Steen, Head of International Relations at the European Commission Directorate for Energy delivered a key note speech: “EU energy policies - the international perspective” during the opening session. Mr Steen was joined by guest speakers from Saudi Arabia, the Gulf Region and Europe. The IEF Secretary General noted that the sharing of insights in energy policy and market developments among government and industry officials from IEF and EU member countries strengthens cooperation on energy security, healthy energy market development and orderly transitions to achieve global goals. He further noted that content and feedback from the meeting would help inform the 1st IEF Energy Efficiency and New Technologies Ministerial that Saudi Arabia will host jointly with Japan on 30 October 2017, and the 7th Asian Energy Ministerial hosted by Thailand on the IEF platform in Bangkok on 1-3 November shortly thereafter, as well as many other forthcoming IEF dialogue events including with the EU.
Other EU and GCC company and government representatives invited
The 4th Argus Middle East Crude Conference hosted the Secretary General of the IEF, Dr Sun Xiansheng alongside the Under Secretary of Oil and Gas of Oman, HE Salim Al-Aufi as key note speakers among other senior industry and government representatives at the Al Bustan Palace in Muscat, Oman on 23-24 January 2017.
The IEF Secretary General discussed the new features of the global oil market, proposing to strengthen the Joint Organisation's Transparency Initiative (JODI), make full use of the platform for dialogue and cooperation that the IEF uniquely provides to accommodate new trends in green, low carbon, and efficiency, strengthening, secure, and sustainable energy market functioning for all.
The Under Secretary of Oil and Gas of Oman highlighted the strategic position and longstanding tradition of Oman in expediting trade and investment flows between the Middle East and Africa with growth markets in Asia and beyond. He also noted that Government and industry cooperation has enabled Oman to reduce upstream unit operating costs, and remove downstream fossil fuel subsidies achieving greater energy productivity in general. Under Secretary Al-Aufi further noted that Oman has successfully attracted substantial new investments in the petrochemical and storage sector in addition to its engagement in the upstream sector that will maintain production at around 1 mb/d.
Challenges in the oil and gas sector also relate to manpower. Oman is extending training opportunities to ensure that employment for Omani talent exists across sectors. The IEF is now working with the Russian Federation on organising the 2nd IEF Conference on Human Resources. The conference will be hosted by the Kingdom of Bahrain, in Manama on 17-18 May 2017.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
On Thursday 19 January 2017 Professor Masakasu Toyoda, CEO and Chairman of the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ) visited IEF Headquarters in Riyadh for a bilateral meeting with IEF Secretary General, Dr Sun Xiansheng. Professor Toyoda also delivered an IEF Lecture entitled: "IEEJ Energy Outlook 2016 for Asia/World" to a distinguished gathering of the diplomatic corps and business community of Riyadh.
The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ) was established in June 1966 and certified as an incorporated foundation by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry in September that year. The IEEJ has been conducting specialised research activities in the areas of environment and energy economics for 50 years. According to the 2015 Go To Think Tank Index from the University of Pennsylvania, the Institute progressively gained recognition and now ranks Best Energy and Resource Think Tank in the World.
Professor Toyoda has been an active participant in the global energy dialogue for many years, having previously held senior positions at the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) of Japan, which was renamed in 2001 as the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI). He is a Board Member of KAPSARC, Accenture Global Energy, and Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. Professor Toyoda is also a member of the Board of Directors of the Pacific International Center for High Technology and a member of the International Advisory Board of Brunei National Energy Research Institute. The Professor holds a bachelor’s degree in law from the University of Tokyo and a master’s in Public Affairs from Princeton University.
Professor Toyoda’s presentation is available for download below.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The IEF was delighted to welcome Dr Urban Rusnák the Secretary General of the International Energy Charter to deliver a lecture at the IEF headquarters today. Ambassador Rusnák’s presentation "The International Energy Charter & International Energy Forum: Existing Complementarities and Possible Synergies" is available for download below.
The fundamental aim of the Energy Charter Treaty is to strengthen the rule of law on energy issues, by creating a level playing field of rules to be observed by all participating governments, thereby mitigating risks associated with energy-related investment and trade.
Further details of the work of the International Energy Charter can be found at their website, and through the key topics discussed during the 27th Energy Charter Conference that was held in Tokyo, Japan on 25-26 November 2016.
The IEF chaired an Inter-Secretariat Meeting of its JODI partner organisations (APEC, Eurostat, GECF, IEA, OLADE, OPEC, & UNSD) in Paris on 15-16 December 2016. The US EIA also participated in the meeting via teleconference to discuss plans for the upcoming JODI Conference in Washington DC.
The meeting, hosted by the IEA at their Headquarters in Paris, focused on reviewing progress and action plans in regard to the following:
In addition to confirming the organisation of the Washington conference, partners discussed on-going cooperation with AFREC and the organisation of a JODI Workshop for the African region in Tunisia in April 2017. The workshop will build on the findings from the JODI Workshop held in Moscow in November 2016 with the participation of more than 40 delegates from the CIS & MENA regions.
Partners also agreed on a set of actions to improve coal data transparency, and efforts to improve synergies among the partners who are already collecting coal data.
Partners also agreed on an action plan to allow JODI data to appear on data re-distributor agencies platforms during 2017.
The meeting concluded with partners agreeing to hold one or two JODI User Seminars during 2017 to continue engagement with JODI users, analysts, and providers of data/industry.
The 3rd IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Gas and Coal Market Outlooks was held at IEA Headquarters in Paris on 14 December 2016 at a time when supply abundance sets the tone in medium term gas and coal market projections, and the rapid entry in force of the UN Paris Agreement points at a new global consensus on emission reductions. Senior experts from government and industry discussed energy market fundamentals, as well as the role of regulation and technology to assess the implications of these developments for the share of gas and coal in the evolution towards healthier energy markets in both producing and consuming countries.
The Symposium is part of the IEA-IEF-OPEC trilateral work programme that aims to improve transparency in the interest of energy security among producing and consuming countries in response to the G20 Cannes Summit Leaders’ Declaration (November 2011) call for "continued dialogue annually between producers and consumers on short medium and long-term outlook and forecasts for oil, gas and coal." G20 and IEF Energy Ministers encouraged the IEA, the IEF and OPEC "to continue their fruitful collaboration", and affirmed their commitment to "strengthen global energy security and facilitate an orderly energy transition" at their recent ministerial meetings held in June and September 2016.
The Symposium considered the dialogue outcomes of the 5th IEF-IGU Ministerial Gas Forum hosted on 6 December 2016 in New Delhi by the government of India, and built on the findings of the earlier held IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposiums on Gas and Coal Market Outlooks referenced below.
The IEF highlights 10 Key IEF Dialogue Insights derived from Symposium discussions. These insights, along with the Joint IEA-IEF-OPEC Summary Report, are coming shortly and will be given below alongside the Agenda:
Session Moderator: Fuad Al Zayer, Co-ordinator Energy Data Transparency (JODI), IEF
Session Moderator: Erfan Vafaie Fard, Analyst - Alternative Sources of Energy, OPEC
Session Moderator: Keisuke Sadamori, Director, Energy Markets and Security, IEA
The 4th Symposium on Gas and Coal Market Outlooks will take place in 2018.
The International Energy Forum (IEF) participated in the 1st Group of 20 Energy and Sustainability Working Group (G20 ESWG) Meeting, held under the German Presidency of the G20 with the motto “Shaping an Interconnected World” on 14-15 December 2016 in Munich, Germany.
The Second G20 Energy Ministers’ Meeting called on the International Energy Forum to establish a Knowledge Sharing Framework on Energy Efficiency in support of the G20 Energy Efficiency Leading Programme. This extends work on an Asian Energy Efficiency Knowledge Sharing Framework under the IEF that Energy Ministers gathered at the 6th Asian Ministerial Energy Roundtable in Doha, Qatar in 2015 endorsed upon a proposal from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia with the support of Japan.
In presenting options for G20 delegates to consider and support, the IEF briefed the 1st G20 ESWG on the work ongoing for the launch of the Energy Efficiency Knowledge Sharing Framework in collaboration with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Japan, and other IEF member countries, as well as with relevant International Organisations.
Mindful of the outcomes of the 15th Session of the IEF International Energy Forum Ministerial Meeting held on 26-28 September in Algiers, Algeria that enhance the IEF producer-consumer dialogue to strengthen energy security and facilitate an orderly energy transition, G20 ESWG delegates expressed their support for this new initiative and welcomed the progress made. Delegates also emphasised the importance of IEF work on market transparency for secure and healthy functioning energy markets, and energy technology neutral debate on the facilitation of long term energy sector investment.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The IEF was delighted to welcome Mr Wim Thomas the Chief Energy Advisor of Shell to deliver an IEF Lecture on the recently published supplement to Shell’s New Lens Scenarios “A Better Life with a Healthy Planet: Pathways to Net-Zero Emissions”. This work illustrates choices, challenges and ideas for society to decarbonise the global economy in a way that Shell believes might address both the challenge of climate change and the desire for broader economic growth.
Shell notes that in spite of the many challenges, the practical details of providing enough energy for a better life for everyone with net-zero emissions can be envisaged - and that is reassuring, even inspiring. But getting there will not be easy. Successful and orderly energy transitions will require a combination of urgency and long term vision in policy making and leadership.
Mr Thomas’ presentation is available for download below and further details of Shell’s New Lens Scenarios can be found on the Shell website.