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Fifth IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

The Fifth IEA-IEF-OPEC  Symposium on Energy Outlooks took place on 23 March 2015 at the IEF Headquarters in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The Heads of the IEA, IEF and OPEC opened the Symposium. Dr Aldo Flores-Quiroga, IEF Secretary General, moderated discussions of the first session. To improve transparency among various scenarios and advance a data driven and well informed producer-consumer dialogue, these focussed on the latest OPEC and IEA energy outlooks and a comparative analysis of short-, medium-, and long-term energy outlooks released by the IEA and OPEC in 2014 provided by the IEF-Duke University Introductory Background Paper

Watch highlights from the 5th IEA IEF OPEC Symposium on Energy OutlooksSymposium discussions in the subsequent sessions were moderated by senior industry practitioners and facilitated an open exchange of views among invited participants. Key energy outlooks from industry stakeholders factored into the discussions. Well-informed insights deepened the collective understanding of present day market dynamics and their impact on energy market security, with a special focus on investment.

The Symposium is part of a wider joint programme of work agreed upon by the three organisations and endorsed by energy ministers at the 12th International Energy Forum (Cancun, March 2010). Attendance is by invitation only.

Session I: Key findings from the Comparative Analysis on Energy Outlooks, and presentation of the latest IEA and OPEC projections.

Session Chair: HE Aldo Flores-Quiroga, Secretary-General of the IEF

Session II: Industry views on short-, medium-, and long-term energy outlooks

Session Moderator: David Fyfe, Head Market Research and Analysis, Gunvor Group

Session III: Uncertainties in coping with appropriate investment decisions

Session Moderator: Harry Tchilinguirian, Global Head, Commodity Markets Strategy – Commodity Derivatives, BNP Paribas

Additional Reading

The IEF-Duke University Global Energy Outlooks Comparison: Methods and Challenges

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Oil Market Volatility, Investment and Spare Capacity

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum, Dr Aldo Flores-Quiroga, and the President of the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, Mr Samer AlAshgar, convened a joint IEF – KAPSARC Thought-Leaders’ Roundtable on Oil Market Volatility, Investment and Spare Capacity: Connections, Costs and Consequences, to thereby contribute toward the understanding of developments that are shaping world oil markets and the producer-consumer dialogue. The Joint Thought Leaders’ Roundtable was held at the IEF Secretariat on 24 March 2015 and shed light on the return of turbulence in global oil markets and its consequences for investment and spare capacity.

Discussions in Session I, moderated by Dr Aldo Flores-Quiroga, focused on investment and how the oil industry will adjust capital expenditures to current market turbulence, and what consequences are for future supply and demand balances. 

Discussions in Session II, moderated by David Hobbs, Vice President Research of KAPSARC, discussed the requirements for spare capacity under new supply and demand realities and who is to furnish it, and at what cost. The meeting was open to participants of the Fifth IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks that convened at the IEF Secretariat on 23 March. HE Amir Hossein Zamaninia, Deputy Petroleum Minister for International Affairs and Commerce, Ministry of Petroleum, Islamic Republic of Iran, contributed as a panelist to the roundtable discussion, alongside other leading global energy experts.

Session I: Investment: how is the oil industry adjusting capital expenditures to current market turbulence and what are the likely consequences for the future supply-demand balance?

Moderator: Aldo Flores-Quiroga, Secretary General, IEF

Session II. Spare capacity: Is it required under new supply and demand realities? Who must provide it and at what cost?

Moderator: David Hobbs, VP of Research, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center

Previous IEF Thought-Leaders Roundtables:

Geopolitics of Energy: Key Challenges - Lecture by Dr Iván Martén
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IEF Lecture - Geopolitics of Energy: Key Challenges

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

The IEF was honoured to receive Dr Iván Martén of Boston Consulting Group’s (BCG) Energy Practice at our headquarters today. Dr Martén, who joined BCG in 1987 and is the global leader of the firm's Energy practice, delivered an IEF Lecture entitled “Geopolitics of Energy: Key Challenges” to a distinguished audience of diplomats, representatives from the energy and finance sectors and academia.

Dr Martén's presentation covered a wide range of market developments that are affecting energy demand, supply, and trade patterns, as well as their relationship to geopolitical factors. He highlighted how climate change challenges, the evolution of the energy mix, the impact of technology on production and consumption trends, the unpredictable nature of energy markets, and the impact of volatile oil prices on the competitiveness of nations are reshaping the world of energy.

Dr Martén's presentation is available for download below:

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IEF Lecture: World Gas Market's Outlook: Developments and Perspective

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

The IEF was honoured to receive Mr Victor Zubkov, Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for Cooperation with the Gas Exporting Countries Forum at our headquarters today. Mr Zubkov who is also Chairman of the Board of Directors of Gazprom, and a former Prime Minister of the Russian Federation delivered an IEF Lecture entitled "World Gas Market's Outlook: Developments and Perspectives" to a distinguished audience of diplomats, representatives from the energy and finance sectors and academia. A translation of the full text of Mr Zubkov's speech is available for download below.

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ExxonMobil: The Outlook for Energy - A View to 2040

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

The IEF was honoured to receive Mr Rob Gardner, Manager of the Economics & Energy Division of the Corporate Strategic Planning Department ExxonMobil Corporation at our headquarters today. Mr Gardner delivered a presentation of ExxonMobil's Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 to a distinguished audience of diplomats, representatives from the energy and finance sectors and academia. The Outlook for Energy is ExxonMobil’s long-term global view of energy demand and supply. Its findings help guide ExxonMobil's long-term investments, and the Outlook is shared to help promote better understanding of the issues shaping the world’s energy future. Updated each year, this edition covers the period to 2040.

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10th JODI Regional Training Workshop

Doha, Qatar

Support JODI

The 10th Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) Regional Training Workshop was generously hosted by JODI’s newest partner, the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), at its headquarters in Doha, Qatar from 23-25 November 2014. The Workshop targeted various nations of Sub-Saharan Africa, as well as the member countries of the GECF and OPEC. In all, 29 energy statistics professionals from 21 countries participated in the training. All of these professionals play key roles in the collection and dissemination of hydrocarbon data to their respective JODI Partners.

His Excellency, Dr Seyed Mohammad Hossein Adeli, Secretary General of the GECF, delivered opening remarks and Dr Hussain Elhag, Secretary General of the Africa Energy Commission (AFREC) gave a keynote speech regarding both AFREC's activities and potential areas for future cooperation with the JODI Partners on energy data transparency in Africa.

The core objective of JODI Regional Training Workshops is to enhance the quality of JODI-Oil and JODI-Gas data. This 10th Workshop covered a range of topics, including an overview of JODI-Oil and JODI-Gas, a review of good practices for oil and gas data collection, and a discussion of data quality assessment techniques. In addition, the Workshop involved hands-on training with the JODI-Gas and JODI-Oil monthly questionnaires, a special session featuring how GECF analysts use JODI data in gas modeling, and an overview of perspectives from data users (i.e. how JODI data are used).

The International Energy Forum (IEF) and JODI Partners extend their sincere appreciation to the GECF for having generously hosted this 10th JODI Regional Training Workshop, and for having contributed towards the advancement of energy data transparency.

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G20-IEF Gas Market Dialogue

Acapulco, Mexico

The members of the G20 account for around 70% of global gas consumption and include some of the world’s largest gas producers and exporters. During 2014, the G20’s Energy Sustainability Working Group (ESWG) met three times (in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane) to discuss global energy issues, including significant shifts in gas supply, demand, production and trade.

Recognising the increasing demand for gas and the changing nature of its supply, at its Brisbane meeting in August 2014 the G20 agreed to hold a dialogue to engage with countries beyond its membership, together with gas industry experts from industry and both international and regional organisations.

The G20 viewed the International Energy Forum (IEF) as a natural partner for this dialogue, given the IEF’s neutral platform, its broad membership of 76 countries, and its core objective of fostering greater mutual understanding and awareness of common energy interests among its members. 

The G20-IEF Gas Market Dialogue was held on 11 November 2014 in Acapulco, Mexico, one day prior to the Fourth IEF-IGU Ministerial Gas Forum. The objective of the gathering was to enhance cooperation and communication among gas industry stakeholders and to identify practical ways to improve the functioning of gas markets. Discussions at the G20-IEF Gas Market Dialogue, wherein roughly 40 stakeholders from government, industry and international organisations participated, were structured around three key themes: market transparency, encouraging investment, and gas market supply security. Findings from the meeting, which was held under the Chatham House Rule, will feed into the ongoing G20 ESWG and IEF energy dialogue processes.

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4th IEF-IGU Ministerial Gas Forum

Acapulco, Mexico

The International Energy Forum (IEF) and the International Gas Union (IGU) held the 4th IEF-IGU Ministerial Gas Forum in Acapulco from 11-12 November 2014. This 4th joint Ministerial Gas Forum, which was generously hosted by the Government of Mexico, gathered Energy Ministers, industry CEOs and selected thought-leaders for discussions around "The Role of Gas in Energy Security and Sustainable Economic Development".

The topics covered at the 4th IEF-IGU Ministerial Gas Forum are of global relevance. They included the role of gas in economic development and its interaction with other sources of energy, the opportunities and challenges for investments in turbulent markets, the competitive landscape for LNG trade, and overall the interaction between policy and private sector strategy in this capital-intensive and long-term oriented sector.

The fact that this meeting took place in Mexico is of particular interest, given that it has just enacted sweeping reforms that have fundamentally changed the legal framework of its energy sector. Mexico has considerable potential in the gas sector and has been listed among the top countries with shale gas deposits in the world. This 4th IEF-IGU Forum provided a unique opportunity to learn first-hand how these historic reforms may affect the Mexican gas sector and influence developments in regional and global energy markets.

In addition to the IEF-IGU Ministerial Gas Forum, the first-ever G20-IEF Gas Market Dialogue was held at the same venue on 11 November.

The IEF-IGU Ministerial Gas Fora have their roots in the 11th International Energy Forum (Rome, 2008), wherein the representatives from 74 countries and 13 international organisations in attendance discussed the growing reliance of consuming countries on natural gas exports, the increasing interdependence between energy producing and energy consuming countries, and the emerging trend towards globalisation in the gas market. Energy Ministers at IEF11 encouraged the IEF Secretariat to work with other relevant international organisations to address the key challenges facing the natural gas industry.

Just seven months later, the IEF and the International Gas Union jointly held the First IEF-IGU Ministerial Gas Forum (Vienna, 2008) organised under the theme "The World Gas Markets Going from Regional to Global". The Second IEF-IGU Ministerial Gas Forum (Doha, 2010) followed two years later, and the Third IEF-IGU Ministerial Gas Forum (Paris, 2012) further enhanced the joint event's standing as a unique opportunity for Ministers and industry executives to engage in an open, informal dialogue in a neutral setting.

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2nd IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Gas and Coal Market Outlooks

Paris, France

The 2nd IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Gas and Coal Market Outlooks was held at IEA Headquarters in Paris on 30 October 2014. The Symposium gathered expert-level representatives from the memberships of the IEA, IEF and OPEC, and featured the participation of a diverse selection of industry representatives, academics and thought leaders.

The objective of the Symposium was to foster dialogue on gas and coal market outlooks and enhanced market transparency, to take stock of current developments in gas and coal market competition, and to discuss other key topics including sustainability and energy security. This Symposium was organised in response to the G20 Cannes Summit Leaders Declaration (November 2011) that called for “continued dialogue annually between producers and consumers on short medium and long-term outlook and forecasts for oil, gas and coal.”

The Symposium built on the findings from the 1st IEA–IEF–OPEC Symposium on Gas and Coal Market Outlooks convened in Paris on 4 October 2012. Selected speaker presentations are available below, and a summary report containing key insights from the 2nd IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Gas and Coal Market Outlooks will be forthcoming shortly.

Symposium proceedings were governed by the Chatham House Rule, and participation is by invitation-only. The 3rd Symposium on Gas and Coal Market Outlooks will take place in 2016.

Should you require more information please contact Mr Christof van Agt, Senior Energy Analyst (Christof.vanagt@ief.org) or Ms Arianna Khan, Executive Assistant to the IEF Director of Energy Dialogue (Arianna.Khan@ief.org).

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