Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
IEF Secretary General, Dr Sun Xiansheng, welcomed Mr Masakazu Toyoda, CEO and Chairman of the Institute of Energy Economics (IEEJ), to the IEF Secretariat on 17th January to give a presentation on the IEEJ 2019 energy outlook and provide a perspective from Japan on the world energy future.
Mr Toyoda discussed trends in world energy supply and demand balances to 2050, on the basis of three IEEJ scenarios that compare results for maintaining current energy and environmental policies in place, to the introduction of powerful new policies and low carbon technologies, and efforts to keep global warming within the 2 degrees Celsius threshold at a reasonable cost to society.
In the reference scenario global primary demand will increase by 1.4 times in 2050 and over 60 percent of that demand growth will come from China, India and the ASEAN countries. While decoupling of economic expansion from energy demand growth proceeds and reduces demand growth rates in the OECD, the share of Asia in total primary energy demand will amount to almost 50%. Global electricity demand will double by 2050 accelerating at a faster pace in Asian economies than in the non Asia region growing from 21% to 30% and from 20% to 28% over the projection period respectively. Coal will play a smaller yet still vital role in Asia’s power generation while natural gas and renewable advance. From an Asian perspective, energy imports and reliance on overseas supplies will increase sharply when 80% of energy traded globally will be consumed in Asia.
Although the share of fossil fuel consumption decreases to around 69 % by 2050 in the advanced technology scenario, high dependency on fossil fuels will continue. Greater investment, technology advances, and efficiency gains will be required to ensure energy security and environmental sustainability. This will limit the energy import reliance of Asian economies and lead to a substantial reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050.
Mr Toyoda presented a model to ensure a balanced approach between mitigation, adaptation and costs to effectively mitigate the negative effects of climate change over long-term horizons. Focussing on the role of technologies, he highlighted advances in the production of carbon-free hydrogen by steam reforming of fossil fuels in combination with Carbon Capture and Storage alongside other technologies.
After discussing the risks and impacts of energy supply disruptions, and a moratorium on new coal fired power plants, Mr Toyoda concluded his presentation with the recommendation that more focus should be on placed on innovative technologies that can balance energy demand with environmental responsibility.
The 17th Regional JODI Training Workshop targeting MENA countries was held in Beirut, Lebanon from 11-14 December 2018. Coordinated by the IEF, the workshop was held as part of Training on Energy Statistics hosted by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (UNESCWA). It was supported by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and other JODI Partners, including GECF, UNSD and the newest JODI Associate, OAPEC.
More than 30 delegates from 17 countries took part in the workshop which improved support of the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI), and raised awareness of the importance of data transparency while strengthening capacity of statistical agencies in the Middle East and North Africa.
The workshop was aimed at relevant energy data professionals in charge of energy data collection and dissemination at national administrations. Through presentations, discussions and practical exercises the regional statistical capacity was strengthened towards the shared aims of improved energy data transparency. For the first time in the history of JODI, the workshop was held in association with a training programme on building annual energy balances from comprehensive energy commodity statistics. The cooperative spirit of JODI among international organisations has enabled such joint programme, which provids a comprehensive picture of energy data compilation activities and their application for better decision.
Several of the JODI partner organisations sent experts to present on the merits and technicalities of JODI, highlighting the importance of cooperation in delivering upon ministers’ calls for global energy data transparency. The International Energy Agency presented the uses of JODI data including the importance of data granularity for data usability. Their perspective offered valuable insight into the needs of specific definitions and consistent submissions to build a more informed energy future.
Three officials for the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center provided welcome insights into the requirements of data users, namely; the need for free, regular, consistent, timely and transparent figures. KAPSARC’s presentation also exhibited some end uses of energy data including their inputs for policy initiatives, forecasts and investment models. OAPEC presentation exhibited the usability and highlights of OAPEC’s energy database.
The hands-on nature of the workshop’s training sessions gave delegates the opportunity to learn about JODI definitions in more detail. Specifically, the workshop reinforced an understanding of the techniques required to perform necessary data quality assessments which underpin the accurate and timely completion of JODI questionnaires. Delegates expressed particular interest in the experience-sharing elements of the programme.
The workshop was held as a part of the JODI 5-Year Action Plan toward 2020 to extend its reach to regions where there is room for improving data availability.
UNESCWA and the seven JODI partners will continue their work with MENA countries to follow-up on commitments and action items agreed in Beirut with the aim of capitalising on the experience gained through this successful workshop.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
IEF Secretary General, Dr Sun Xiansheng, welcomed Mr Ma Weidu to the IEF Secretariat on 29 November to give a presentation and lecture on Cultural Exchanges in History between China and Saudi Arabia on Ancient Works of Art with regards to the Belt and Road Initiative.
Mr Ma Weidu is a Chinese cultural scholar, writer, expert in Chinese art work who is also the founder of the Guanfu Museum. He hosts multiple popular TV and livestream programs where he shares his experiences in culture and antique collection with his audience. Currently he is a member of China Democratic National Construction Association; and a member of the board of directors of China Association for Friendship; goodwill ambassador for WildAid.
Mr Ma Weidu is committed to promoting Chinese culture to the world. He gave many lectures in schools, government organizations, companies and residential quarters, such as Party School of the Communist Party of China, National School of Administration, and Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and so on. He was invited to give lectures at the United Nations Headquarters in Geneva, Denver Art Museum in the USA, Confucius Institute in Turkey and so on.
Ministers, Heads of International Organisations, Chief Executive Officers and public and private sector officials gathered at the 6th IEF-IGU Ministerial Gas Forum hosted by the International Energy Forum (IEF) and the International Gas Union (IGU) on 21-22 November in Barcelona, Spain. Delegates debated how gas market technologies and innovation contribute to inclusive growth and a sustainable energy future to achieve globally shared goals faster together.
Taking a Mediterranean perspective on gas market trends between Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, Asia Oceania and the Americas, discussions at the 6th IEF-IGU Ministerial Gas Forum were structured in three plenary sessions on:
The biennial IEF-IGU Ministerial Gas Forum aims to facilitate a constructive conversation among governments and companies from both producing and consuming countries on the potentials and risks in gas markets, and share a clear vision on what is needed to stimulate inclusive growth and create a sustainable energy future.
New conventional and unconventional resources, pipelines and LNG technologies diversify gas trade and investment flows among world regions, and create a more abundantly supplied and competitive gas market environment. The value gas supply chains offer to consumers has steadily improved through technology advancements, cost reductions and efficiency gains, as a consequence. In the current setting, natural gas market functioning depends more on technology, innovation and effective supply chain management, than extraction or off-take requirements. New gas technologies and innovations in gas market development are also coming into sharper focus as the need for clean air in major cities and greenhouse gas emission reductions grow. While implementation of the 2015 United Nations Paris Agreement and Agenda 2030 Sustainable Development Goals requires sustained and stepped-up efforts globally, policy choices and investment decisions take on a different character in distinct energy market settings.
Taking place in the context of these new gas market trends that create significant new market opportunities and enable enhanced ambition for climate resilient development on the eve of the 24th UNFCCC Conference of Parties in early December 2018, the 6th IEF-IGU Ministerial Gas Forum will build on the dialogue among government and industry stakeholders. This will support well informed decisions in light of greater interconnectivity and more stringent energy and climate policy requirements.
Delegates noted that the importance of natural gas in achieving inclusive sustainable growth and successful energy sector transformations is more widely acknowledged. They highlighted that natural gas is critical to help keep global warming within tolerable limits and improve air quality in major cities, noting that in comparison to other fossil fuels, natural produces less greenhouse gas emissions, negligible sulphur dioxide and airborne particulate matter and very low nitrogen dioxide emissions, while supporting the greater deployment of renewable energies and integration of other sources.
Delegates called on government and industry leaders to build confidence by overcoming obstacles to gas market trade and cross border interconnections and foster stable and predictable conditions to accelerate the deployment of gas sector technologies such as Carbon Capture Use and Storage (CCUS), Hydrogen, modern gas sector infrastructure, including flexible and small scale Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) and explore synergies.
Co-dependencies between importers and exporters are increasingly governed by flexible arrangements in a currently well supplied market. Yet to boost stable and resilient gas markets long-term investment must accelerate over the next decade. Predictable and transparent market conditions including reliable price signals and regulation are vital to gas market security and trade flows in a more diverse and rapidly changing environment.
Delegates of the IEF-IGU Ministerial Gas Forum noted the progress made by the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) Gas initiative since JODI-Gas was launched in Moscow on 2014. Delegates welcomed the enhanced visibility of JODI-Gas data that is now also available on different major data re-distribution agencies (Argus, Bloomberg, and Thomson Reuters). As LNG trade increases, delegates recognised the need for improved granularity of LNG data available in the marketplace and called on JODI Partner Organisations to help achieve this goal.
The importance of natural gas in achieving sustainability and successful energy sector transformations is now more widely acknowledged. Natural gas supports the greater deployment of renewable energies and in comparison to other fossil fuels produces much less greenhouse gas emissions, and negligible sulphur dioxide and airborne particulate matter and very low nitrogen dioxide emissions, critical to air quality. The challenge for the future is how energy systems will evolve to meet greenhouse gas emission, and more stringent fuel quality standards while at the same time respond to growing demand for affordable access to reliable energy services. Governments and industry are sharpening focus on the technologies and innovations needed to capitalize on the environmental benefits gas offers for inclusive growth towards sustainable futures.
Moderator: Adam Sieminski, President, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Centre (KAPSARC)
In 2017, global gas demand grew by almost 4% due to strong demand growth in Asia and Europe. While the outlook for gas is bright in view of its abundance, New infrastructure developments in Europe from the Baltic to the Mediterranean, rising North American LNG exports and Asian gas demand growth illustrate both the opportunities and hurdles that remain for the world to fully capitalise on the benefits that readily available gas resources and new and innovative technologies bring. The share of gas in the energy mix has remained largely unchanged until very recently as a consequence. In order to encourage the necessary investments in infrastructure and trade flows, there is a need to focus on pricing, cost, and acceptance issues to realise new growth potentials.
Producers and consumers cooperate to strengthen security of gas supply on international markets and benefit from greater resource availability and new market opportunities. This involves investment in gas infrastructure, ranging from pipeline systems, on land LNG terminals and floating facilities, cross-border and inland interconnections, as well as storage. Co-dependencies between importers and exporters are increasingly governed by flexible arrangements in the current well supplied market. Yet to boost resilient and healthy growth in Asia, or respond to the rising import dependencies in Europe, long-term investment must accelerate over the next decade. Predictable and transparent market mechanisms including reliable price signals and regulation will be required to enhance gas market security in a more diverse and rapidly changing environment.
Details of the previous IEF-IGU Ministerial Gas Forums can be found below.
Dr. Sun Xiansheng inaugurated the JODI Information Seminar and Energy Data Exhibition held as part of the UNECE Ninth International Forum on Energy for Sustainable Development in Kiev, Ukraine on 15 November 2018. The event was inaugurated along with Mr. Scott Foster, Director, Sustainable Energy Division, UNECE and a representative from the Ministry of Energy and Coal Industry, Ukraine. JODI Partners including the GECF, IEA, OPEC, & UNSD and OAPEC, JODI’s newest member, attended the event alongside notable International organisations such as Energy Community and UN-ESCAP.
Government officials and industry experts engaged in an interactive session demonstrating JODI’s importance to sustainable development and energy transition. The Partners highlighted JODI’s collaborative framework among national administrations, JODI partners and data users as the key feature that makes JODI possible. Dr Sun emphasized the need for reliable data and reaffirmed IEF’s commitment to enhance global energy data transparency under the JODI framework, while Fuad AlZayer, Global Coordinator of Energy Data Transparency – JODI, showcased the history of JODI since its inception in 2000 and the different millstones.
Panelists viewed data transparency as paramount to a smooth energy transition and stronger collective efforts towards achieving sustainable development goals, including the UN Sustainable Development Goals: SDG7 - “Ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all”.
The event is in line with JODI 5-Year Action Plan which calls for “Raising awareness of the JODI platform and database and identifying and engaging champions for JODI.” By putting the JODI 5-Year Action Plan into practice, JODI Partners meet with stakeholders around the world to promote the need for:
Delegates from the JODI Partners organisations, International Organisations and Seminar attendees also deliberated on the way forward, how to overcome challenges in compiling JODI World Databases and communicate the benefit of JODI to national administrations.
St. Petersburg, Russia
Mr. Aurangzeb Qureshi represented the International Energy Forum at the XI International Scientific Conference – ENERGETIKA XXI: economy, policy, ecology hosted by the St. Petersburg State University of Economics on 14-16 November 2018 in St. Petersburg, Russia. The conference was founded in 2007 as an initiative of Gazprom to address recent developments in the energy sector on a global basis and with a special focus on Russia. Leading energy experts from government, academia and industry participated over three days through presentation and dialogue. This year’s theme was entitled: ‘’The Need for Energy Dialogue in a Fast Changing Environment’’
Presentations focused on topics of decarbonization and emissions reduction along with the role of hydrogen in the energy transition. Energy developments from a macro-level viewpoint from the role of natural gas to the evolving nature of energy security and sustainable energy transition were discussed at length through interactive presentations and intelligent questions and answer sessions. The pace of the energy transition was a relevant and timely discussion point that contributed to insightful dialogue. Presentations on topics involving EU-Russia dynamics, the role of infrastructure and climate and decarbonization were held concurrently in parallel work streams.
The conference also held interactive discussion under Chatham House Rule on the possibility of an all-electric and renewable world and the new geopolitics of energy featuring speakers from academia, research organizations and governmental departments. The role of electrification was put forward given falling costs and exponential growth of renewable technology. However, the concentration of raw materials and possibility of a technology plateau provides a role for hydrogen and other fuels as a possible complement to renewables. From a geopolitical perspective, discussants examined the intersection of geopolitics and energy and how energy influences the foreign policies of the U.S., Russia and the European Union.
The 4th IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Gas and Coal Market Outlooks was held at IEA Headquarters in Paris on 6 November, bringing together more than 100 participants, including experts, government officials, business leaders and representatives from the gas and coal industries.
Senior experts from the three hosting organisations along with the GECF and IGU discussed the future of the natural gas and coal market from a short-medium and long-term perspective. Meanwhile, industry experts from Snam S.p.A, Shell and Cheniere Energy presented on natural gas infrastructure capacity, unlocking investment in natural gas and the rise of LNG. From a coal perspective, Dr Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General of the IEF moderated an important discussion on coal outlooks and its ongoing evolution given the growing role of natural gas and renewables.
The last session centred on the competition between natural gas and coal and implications such a dynamic has on long-term sustainability. Discussion revolved around sustainability in gas and coal supply chains, clean technologies and energy transitions.
The Symposium on Gas and Coal Markets Outlooks is jointly organised by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Energy Forum (IEF) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), in accordance with the outcomes of the 12th IEF Ministerial International Energy Forum (Cancun, 2010) and the G20 Leaders’ Summit (Cannes, 2011) that called for “continued annual dialogue between producers and consumers on short-, medium- and long-term outlooks and forecasts for oil, gas and coal.”
The meeting, hosted by The IEA at their Headquarters in Paris, focused on following up on the guidance received from the JODI Heads and IEF Ministers during the JODI Heads IEF16 Ministerial held in India on April 2018 and reaffirmed action plans and activities for 2019.
The meeting further reviewed following progress and items:
Partners agreed to hold a next JODI Conference during second half of 2019 and reviewed a plan to hold a JODI Training Workshop for MENA Region in cooperation with UN-ESCWA in December 2018. Partners also agreed to work with OPEC Fund International Development and AFREC to plan a follow-up JODI Training Workshop for Sub Sahara Africa during first half of 2019. In the meantime, plans for training workshops for Latin America and Asia-Pacific region during 2019 are underway.
Partners also took notes on progress made on planning for an upcoming JODI User Information Seminar during 9th International Forum on Energy for Sustainable Development, 15 November 2018 in Ukraine. The event is held under framework of collaboration among United Nation Economic Commissions the seminar is expected to benefit from large attendance of key policy makers to the Forum.
Energy research and data analytic company Kayrros presented JODI partners their business model charactarised by their application of big data and digital media to their analysis. In the backdrop of increasing attention to digitalisation of the energy industry and policy implication, JODI partners and Kayrros discussed area of possible future cooperation.
The meeting concluded that JODI partners continues to enhance global energy data transparency through actions identified in the 5-Year JODI Action Plan.
Marrakech City, Morocco
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum, Dr Sun Xiansheng, participated in the 11th Arab Energy Conference hosted by Morocco under the high patronage of H.M. King Mohammed VI under the theme Energy and Arab Cooperation on 1-4 October in Marrakech, Morocco. The 11th Arab Energy Conference was opened by the conference chairman HE Aziz Rabbah, Minister of Energy, Mines and Sustainable Development, Morocco and HE Dr. Ahmed Aboul Gheit, Secretary General, the League of Arab States on behalf of the Sponsoring Organizations of the Conference that also involved the Organisation of the Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC), the Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development, and the Arab Industrial Development and Mining Organization.
The IEF Secretary General participated in both the first and second high-level ministerial sessions discussing the Transformations in Global Oil and Gas Markets and their Implications for Arab Oil Exporters, and Energy Security as a Global Partnership respectively. Both sessions were informed by background papers that HE Abbas Ali Al-Naqi, Secretary General of OAPEC, invited from Dr. Bassam Fattouh, Director, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, and the International Energy Forum.
The IEF Dialogue Insight Paper on Energy Security as a Global Partnership highlighted that:
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum, Dr Sun Xiansheng hosted H.E. Luca Ferrari, Ambassador of Italy to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, to deliver a lecture on the impact of the American sanctions on Iran and the energy industry at the IEF on 12 September 2018.
Among the Ambassadors and dignitaries attending, Dr Sun was pleased to welcome H.E. Michele Cervone D’Urso, Ambassador of the European Union Delegation to Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar, who kindly agreed to introduce and moderate the session.
The lecture was conducted under the Chatham House Rule and was attended by high ranking government and industry representatives, as well as senior experts from academia and advisory services.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum, Dr Sun Xiansheng hosted the President of the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, Mr Adam Sieminski, to present on the World Energy Outlook at the IEF on the 9th of September 2018.
Mr. Sieminski started off by highlighting KAPSARC’s mission to advance the understanding of energy challenges and opportunities, through unbiased, independent, and high-calibre research for the benefit of society. Mr Sieminski emphasized the enduring value of the IEF in providing a unique and neutral platform to strengthen market stability through data-driven dialogue on market, policy, and technology evolutions. The exchange of views on energy security, industry transformations, and reserve mechanisms fosters healthy energy markets for both producers and consumers and the effective achievement of shared goals they pursue together. He looked forward to further strengthen collaboration and bringing the growing capabilities of KAPSARC to bear on the IEF platform.
Mr Sieminski shared his perspective on global energy demand and pathways to its evolution. He observed that world energy demand will continue to expand on account of average annual increases in economic growth to 2040. These are forecasted to amount to 4.1% and 1.7% for the non-OECD and OECD regions respectively by the International Energy Outlook the U.S. Energy Information Administration released this summer. Forecasts show that petroleum, liquids and natural gas dominate growth, alongside renewables that will continue to grow at a steady rate and amount to 17% of global energy consumption by 2040. Coal demand will plateau after 2020 and nuclear shows modest growth comprising 21% and 5% of the global energy mix each in 2040. Electrification of energy demand will account for 40% of growth; a new regional pattern that China and India lead with other non-OECD countries.
Against the background of growing uncertainties reflected in the wide range of oil demand forecast across scenario’s, Mr Sieminski underlined that the need for oil will remain robust for decades. Large scale investment in new conventional production is essential to compensate for natural decline rates and maintain secure supplies also when tight oil plateaus and non-OPEC production slows in the 2020s. Though advances in new vehicle technologies command attention, by 2040 and beyond transportation will still be driven by the internal combustion engine. Oil demand growth in the industry and petrochemicals sector remains steady over the forecast period.
With reference to KAPSARC’s research on inventory assessments, Mr Sieminski noted that energy security concepts have evolved from concerns with physical availability to price volatility. Net flows and inventory levels, including 5-year average measurements are insufficient indicators of market balance. As the function of inventories and idle capacity is changing in the new market environment the velocity of oil will matter more to market stability in future.
Mr Sieminski ended his presentation with a reference to KAPSARC’s work on the positive contribution to the global economy of OPEC’s spare capacity. Published earlier this year in the peer-reviewed Energy Journal, the paper provided an estimate of the $170-$200 billion annual value to the world of OPEC’s willingness (especially in Saudi Arabia) to temper volatility in oil prices by using spare capacity to, occasionally, add or remove oil from markets.
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum (IEF) Dr Sun Xiansheng and the President of the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development (RIPED) Dr Zhao Wenzhi welcomed senior representatives from the international energy industry, and high-ranking government representatives of IEF member countries at the 2nd Industry Advisory Committee that IEF and RIPED co-hosted at the Institute’s Science and Technology Centre in Beijing China on 31 July 2018.
Gathered under the theme “Energy Transformations and Oil and Gas Strategies” participants explored how new technology, innovation and policy evolve and what promise oil and gas strategies and market fundamentals hold for energy market stability and orderly transitions in China and the world.
The role of technology is pivotal to global energy security and network stability. Technology enhances rational development of natural resources, efficiency gains in energy supply chains and enables synergies among flows in industrial clusters to enhance productivity. This enables viable transformations for inclusive growth towards healthy and sustainable futures that rely on both hydrocarbon and renewable sources to work in concert with industry and government stakeholders in ever more interconnected energy markets.
Discussions at the 2nd Industry Advisory Committee Workshop took place in two panel sessions moderated by Amos Hochstein, Senior Vice President, Marketing, Tellurian and Dr Kamel Ben Naceur, Chief Economist, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, inviting perspectives from a wide selection of senior government and industry panelists to deepen understanding and strengthen confidence in global energy market functioning.
Discussions were governed by the Chatham House rule, presentations are retrievable below.
Moderated by Amos Hochstein, Senior Vice President, Marketing, Tellurian
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum, Dr Sun Xiansheng and the President of the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Centre, Mr Adam Sieminski jointly hosted Dr Kenneth B Medlock III, Senior Director of the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute to present on the prospects for US oil and gas exports at the IEF on 18 July 2018.
US oil and gas exports have grown substantially and are making landfall in a growing number of countries. This is influencing current market dynamics and will continue to reshape global oil and gas trade. Following the oil market downturn in late 2014, unconventional US oil and gas production has become more resilient due to cost reductions and operator innovation. By 2017, US crude oil and petroleum products exports reached 6.3 million barrels per day while natural gas exports reached 8.7 billion cubic feet per day. Infrastructure and environmental considerations, however, present a potential, albeit temporary, drag on US exports’ stellar rise. Infrastructure constraints are limiting evacuation options and natural gas flaring exemptions for crude oil-directed developments are likely to lapse. The combined effect will be that some production may be shut in or take longer to materialise.
US oil production increased by over 5.5 mb/d over the past decade, covering for production declines that resulted from above-ground constraints elsewhere. Although shale production dipped in 2015, it has recovered since due to productivity improvements and higher prices. Nevertheless, both near-term global market balance and US exports will depend largely on global demand. US exports will be driven by profitability because development is driven by commercial considerations; US oil and gas are not an overt policy vector. Hence, international trade opportunities and the ability to overcome hurdles related to cost and market access through innovation and new infrastructure will drive exports in the long term. This will contribute to an ongoing transformation of global oil and gas trade, along with frontier supplies in the Western Hemisphere – including in several countries ranging from Canada to Argentina.
US shale has made global supply more price responsive. But, while shale can temper long term price movement it remains governed by market fundamentals. So, US shale will lend to greater long term price stability, but the role of inventory and spare capacity as a stabilizing force for short term disturbances in the global market is not diminished. Moreover, given that oil and gas demand will be largely driven by non-OECD markets for the next couple of decades, the importance of traditional sources of supply remains significant.
The Second JODI Inter Secretariat Meeting of 2018, chaired by the International Energy Forum, was hosted by Eurostat on 4-5 July at the Eurostat Headquarters in Luxembourg. Representatives of the JODI Partner Organisations, including APEC, Eurostat, IEA, IEF, OLADE, OPEC & UNSD, met to discuss the progress of JODI initiatives and the way forward in light of the guidance and feedback received from the JODI Heads and IEF Ministers during the 16th IEF Ministerial Meeting and Heads of JODI Meeting held in India on 10-12 April, 2018.
The partners also reviewed progress and action plans regarding the following:
The JODI Partners agreed to host the next JODI Capacity Building Workshop in collaboration with the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (UNESCWA) for the Middle East/North Africa region in December 2018. The Partners also encouraged ongoing work with The OPEC Fund for International Development (OFID) and the Africa Energy Commission (AFREC) to follow up on efforts to increase the quality of JODI Data submission from Africa. The partners agreed to host JODI Capacity Building Workshops in Africa and Latin America during the first half of 2019, followed by a Workshop in Asia in late 2019.
The Partners agreed to continue the JODI User Information Seminars with plans to host the next Seminar alongside the UNECE 9th International Forum in Ukraine in November 2018, taking advantage of the large number of energy experts who will be in attendance.
Finally, the JODI Partners deliberated on how to continue to improve cooperation and inclusiveness of collaboration with other regional energy organisations such as AFREC, OAPEC, OFID and others, who are keen to share benefits of association with JODI and strive towards greater global data transparency.
IEF Energy Analyst, Mr. Aurangzeb Qureshi, represented Dr Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General, International Energy Forum, at the Global Forum on Energy Security which was co-hosted by the Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics (IQTE) at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS), and the United States Energy Security Council (USESC) in Beijing on 18-19 June 2018. The Global Forum on Energy Security has become China’s premier international platform for deliberations on the changing global energy landscape and China’s role in global energy security that aims to promote research and information exchanges on energy security among think tanks, government officials, diplomats and industry leaders,
The 2018 conference was focussed on how energy governance and innovation play a role in China’s “New Belt Road Initiative” (BRI) given the importance and scale of the BRI as it relates to global energy security. Presentations focussed on the future of China’s energy demand followed by projects dedicated to the promotion of development and connectivity. Sustainability was also an important topic throughout the conference. The future of energy as it pertains to “smart society” was discussed at length through presentations by think tanks and companies specialising in renewable energy solutions.
The forum also addressed energy geopolitics featuring speakers from Chinese and American think tanks with special emphasis on energy governance and President Xi Jinping’s geopolitical and geo-economic vision in Eurasia. Detailed analysis of developments in Asia Pacific oil and gas markets including Asian refining and trade and LNG upstream, downstream, transportation and infrastructure dynamics were also discussed. The forum contributed to sharpening collective focus on the development of the LNG industry in China, the future of LNG imports in light of increasing coal to gas switching, and related new investments in gas storage.
San Carlos de Bariloche, Argentina
Dr Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General, International Energy Forum (IEF) participated in the 2nd G20 Energy Transitions Working Group, and G20 Energy Ministers Meeting hosted by the Presidency of Argentina under the theme “Building Consensus for Fair and Sustainable Development” on 13-15 June 2018 in San Carlos de Bariloche, Argentina.
To advise the G20 Delegations, the Presidency of Argentina circulated the Concluding Statement of the IEF16 Ministerial Meeting that HE Dharmendra Pradhan, Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas and Minister for Skill Development and Entrepreneurship of India, issued on behalf of the IEF16 host country, India, on 12 April 2018, in advance of the G20 Energy Transitions Working Group and Energy Ministers Meetings.
The IEF Secretary General was given the floor in Session III and IV on Energy Access and Data Transparency of the Energy Transitions Working Group to briefly highlight interrelations and IEF engagement in these areas that it carries out in close collaboration with the OPEC Fund for International Development (OFID) and as the coordinator of the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) with JODI Partner Organisations: The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), Eurostat, the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), the International Energy Agency (IEA), Organización Latino Americana de Energia (OLADE) , the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD).
The Secretary General took part in the G20 Energy Ministers Meeting proceedings and held several bilateral meetings with participating heads of delegations.
Previous G20 Meetings
San Carlos de Bariloche, Argentina
Dr Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General of the International Energy Forum took part in the Natural Gas Day hosted by the International Gas Union and the Argentinian Institute of Oil & Gas (Instituto Argentino del Petróleo y del Gas, IAPG) under the theme “Natural Gas: Facilitating Growth and Cleaner Energy Systems” in San Carlos de Bariloche on 12 June 2018.
Benefitting from the institutional support of the Ministry of Energy and Mining of Argentina, the meeting took place on the eve of Argentina’s G20 Energy Transitions Working Group and Energy Ministers Meetings on 13-15 June. David Carroll, IGU President and HE Juan José Aranguren, Minister of Energy and Mining of Argentina welcomed delegates and provided opening statements.
Dr Sun Xiansheng moderated panel session discussions on the role of gas as part of the pathway to achieving a sustainable energy future. Other panel sessions focused on gas as an abundant, accessible and flexible energy source, and contributor to climate change mitigation and clean air. Discussions demonstrated that gas is both a catalyst for orderly energy transitions and sustainable development.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum, Dr Sun Xiansheng hosted Mr Alexander Pögl, Head of Business Development of JBC Energy to present on recent oil market dynamics and JBC demand and supply projections at the IEF Headquarters in Riyadh on 10 May 2018. The presentation provided perspectives on OPEC supply strategies, US tight oil production and the repercussions of crude quality changes, including the impact of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) bunker fuel regulation on oil markets.
On the demand side, Mr Pögl highlighted that after almost six years of sustained demand growth, increases in consumption may slow due to rising prices for transport fuels that, out of all refined products, are forecast to remain the strongest force to shape the dynamics of demand. Pointing at a recent upswing in European oil demand, gasoline and diesel demand are projected to come under pressure in the 2020s.
On the supply side, Mr Pögl touched on the interaction between OPEC and US tight oil supplies driven by the Permian Basin. Though the first phase of US tight oil production was largely absorbed by US refineries, new production will be directed to international markets after infrastructure constraints are overcome to draw US stockpiles to international markets. He also noted that technology advances allow the industry to operate with greater efficiency. This has not only enabled more resilient unconventional production but is also likely to decrease conventional decline rates. The presentation concluded by discussing the IMO Bunker Fuels Regulation that limits sulphur emissions to 0.5 percent globally by 2020 and what this entails for LNG and oil product demand and how industry can best meet this challenge.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum, Dr Sun Xiansheng was pleased to host Dr Zhang Hualin, Director General, Policy Research Office, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) as the Head of the CNPC Delegation presenting on the China “One Belt One Road” Initiative (OBOR) and the Role of Natural Gas in China’s Energy Transition at the IEF Headquarters in Riyadh on 8 May 2018.
CNPC’s presentation on “The Belt and Road”: Oil and Gas Cooperation Basics”, provided an overview of OBOR including CNPC’s role in the project ‘s scale and breadth that involves 68+ countries with a combined population of 4.4 billion. The OBOR initiative revolves around 3 Principles and 5 Priorities: The Principle of Joint Discussion, Co-construction and Sharing with Priorities focussed on Policy Coordination, Facilities Connectivity, Unimpeded Trade, Financial Integration, and People-to-People Bonds. The substance of the presentation focused on CNPC’s role in managing risks and opportunities in the energy sector dimension of the 5 overseas oil and gas cooperation areas of the OBOR initiative by implementing these principles and priorities.
CNPC’s presentation on “The Role of Gas in China’s Energy Transition” and focussed on natural gas demand-supply dynamics including China’s growing natural gas consumption and domestic production. CNPC baseline projection for natural gas demand to grow by 8.6% between 2016-2020 and 4.3% between 2020-2030 reaching 290 billion cubic meters (bcm) and 440 bcm in 2020 and 2040 respectively. Excellence in natural gas supply chain management must be achieved by the 5As of Availability, Accessibility, Assurance, Affordability and Accountability as accelerated urbanisation and clean air requirements demand.
For China’s gas industry to enter a period of strategic opportunity and rapid development price and infrastructure hurdles need to be overcome according to CNPC. Alongside China’s increasing reliance on international energy markets for oil, gas and coal imports – for which foreign dependencies reached 68%, 39% and 9.5% respectively in 2017 – the energy transition challenges China faces relate to a coal dominated and carbon intensive industry. To overcome these challenges, China’s 13th Five Year Energy Plan promotes expansion of the natural gas market, scaling up renewables as well as deploying clean and ultra-efficient technologies, while reducing excess coal capacity.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum (IEF) Dr Sun Xiansheng welcomed Dr Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) to present an IEF Lecture on Global Energy Market trends at IEF Headquarters in Riyadh on 2 May 2018.
In his presentation and roundtable discussion, moderated by the Ambassador of Germany to Saudi Arabia, His Excellency Dieter Walter Haller, Dr Birol complimented the IEF Secretary General on the successful conclusion of the IEF16 Ministerial Meeting hosted by India on 10-12 April in New Delhi. He noted that Asian economies such as India have moved closer towards the centre stage of world energy affairs and highlighted that global oil demand growth had rebounded in 2017 at twice the rate of the past decade. The need for investment in oil has therefore not diminished, given continued growth in demand and 3 mb/d of declines from mature fields each year.
Asian energy demand growth in which India has taken over the lead from China will influence global energy markets trends. Natural gas, electrification and digitalisation will be new driving forces alongside growing demand for oil in transport and petrochemicals sectors and for clean technologies in coal fired power generation. Dr Birol pointed towards a moderate decoupling between global economic growth and carbon emissions over recent years accompanied by large-scale deployment of wind and solar technologies. Although, after three years of remaining flat, global energy-related CO2 emissions grew in 2017 partly due to less emphasis being placed on energy efficiency.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum, Dr Sun Xiansheng was pleased to host Bill Farren-Price, CEO of Petroleum Policy Intelligence (PPI), and Derek Brower, Managing Director of Research to present on oil supply risks and opportunities at the IEF Headquarters in Riyadh on Wednesday May 2, 2018.
The first of the two-part presentation focused on geopolitical risks to oil supply that may create volatility in a tightening market. Discussion revolved around the political volatility in Venezuela and the Middle East including what a potential withdrawal by the United States from the 2015 Iran deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action may imply for an oil market moving towards equilibrium. PPI concludes that OPEC spare capacity is limited, and security of supply is now more exposed to geopolitical risks.
Part two of the presentation discussed whether tightening supply-demand balances risk a new oil cycle by eroding demand or will stimulate more investment. Participants discussed how geopolitical risks, new policies, and technology advances will work together to assess their impact on oil market stability.
New Delhi, India
The Government of India hosted 90+ delegations including 50 energy ministers, 30 CEOs, 12 heads of international organisations and 500+ guests at the 16th biennial International Energy Forum Ministerial Meeting (IEF16) in New Delhi on 10-12 April 2018 with the support of the People’s Republic of China and the Republic of Korea as co-hosts. The meeting was held under the theme: "The Future of Global Energy Security - Transition, Technology, Trade and Investment". Providing the opportunity for attendees to discuss relevant issues that currently affect global energy markets, the IEF Ministerial is the largest gathering of energy ministers in the world.
Meeting on the neutral global platform that the IEF provides to strengthen international cooperation on energy through dialogue, the IEF16 focused on how global shifts, transition policies and new technologies influence market stability and future investment and trade patterns in the energy sector. Dialogue among Ministers and industry leaders on how global shifts, new policies and technologies change investment and trade patterns and influence energy market security, facilitate orderly transitions, and accelerate the achievement of shared goals.
On behalf of the IEF16 host country, Shri Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India inaugurated the IEF16 Ministerial Meeting. Prime Minister Modi shared his energy vision as comprising four pillars – energy access, energy efficiency, energy sustainability and energy security. He called for a mutually supportive relationship between producers and consumers. He also called for optimal use of the neutral platform of the IEF to build a global consensus on ‘responsible pricing’, that serves the mutual interests of both producers and consumers. H.E. Dharmendra Pradhan, Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas and Minister for Skill Development and Entrepreneurship of India, HE Khalid Al Falih, Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and H.E. Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General of the International Energy Forum also addressed delegates at the Inaugural Session, setting the scene for the Forum’s discussions.
Ministerial dialogue was structured in four thematic plenary sessions, and four parallel roundtables focussed on:
Meeting at a time of uncertainty, dynamism and change, IEF16 ministers acknowledged that global energy security is taking on new meanings that have just as much to do with adaptability as energy access, affordability, and inclusive and sustainable growth. IEF16 ministers noted that their presence in New Delhi manifests that, through open dialogue, energy market stakeholders can move forward faster and farther when embracing shared value propositions that benefit all. Noting from contributions by both the International Energy Agency and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries that the fossil fuel sector shall continue to provide around three-quarters of energy demand in 2040, as projected in their main scenarios, IEF16 delegates focused dialogue on the mutual reinforcing role of fossil fuels and clean energy technologies, including renewables calling for reliable, and realistic transformations that all can afford, and rational responses to the global energy challenges we face together.
Delegates took note of the contributions by the OPEC Fund for International Development (OFID), and the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), acknowledging that global agreements on shared goals, and energy access concluded under the aegis of the United Nations in 2015, are in the early phases of implementation and that despite progress, collective efforts must be stepped up to achieve universal energy access and alleviate energy poverty by 2030.
IEF16 delegates focussed on the limited volume of upstream oil and gas sector investments as a consequence of the downward price cycle, and the risks and opportunities that new unconventional production resilience brings to the stability of oil and gas markets globally. Ministers and industry leaders welcomed enhanced dialogue on the role of new and existing energy producers and innovative cooperative arrangements to collectively shoulder the responsibility of maintaining oil and gas market stability and ensure investment moves forward in a timely and cost-effective manner in both short and longer cycle oil and gas projects.
Delegates welcomed the rapid development of new energy technologies and the competitive disciplines a more diverse and vibrant market environment creates for the industry at large. To ensure successful energy sector transformations, IEF16 delegates acknowledged that more dialogue is needed on new policy and technology deployment to facilitate cost-effective transitions between new and existing technologies. Delegates recognised that failure to protect investments of existing assets in favour of new technologies will deter the effective mobilisation of capital in new projects as well.
IEF16 delegates noted that global shifts in energy demand and supply patterns, as well as rapid technology advances alter world energy market dynamics and compel corresponding governance structures including the institutional set up of the IEF energy dialogue to respond to evolving producer-consumer relations. IEF16 delegates also acknowledged that as energy markets are governed by complexity, enhanced dialogue on probable energy pathways will improve market transparency and work to achieve shared goals together. They noted that institutional cooperation has gone from strength to strength to make different outlook projections more comparable, raise the energy dialogue to a higher level and welcomed sharpened focus on reducing differences in historical baseline data, improving fuel type classifications and the modernisation of country classifications.
IEF16 ministers, industry leaders, and heads of international organisations applauded the leadership of the government of India in taking the IEF energy dialogue forward as host of the 16th International Energy Forum Ministerial. Thanking the government of India for its generous hospitality, and the People’s Republic of China and the Republic of Korea for their support as co-hosts, IEF16 delegates took note of the productive outcomes of their dialogue reflected in the concluding statement (available for download) that H.E. Dharmendra Pradhan, Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas, and Minister for Skill Development and Entrepreneurship presented on behalf of the government of India
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New Delhi, India
The heads and representatives of the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) Partners who were present for the 16th IEF Ministerial Meeting in New Delhi, India - Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), the International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Energy Forum, (IEF), Organización Latino americana de Energia (OLADE) , and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) - met on 10 April 2018 for the 6th Meeting of the Heads of JODI Partner Organisations to take account of progress made since their last high-level meeting in Algiers in 2016.
The meeting of the Heads of the JODI Partners is held every 2 years in association with the IEF Ministerial Meeting. The main objective of the Head of JODI meeting is to help determine and set forth an agreed path forward for JODI based on the outcome of consultations with the JODI data-user community and the aspirations of the Partners to deliver ongoing improvements to the Initiative.
The JODI Heads discussed how they can best collaborate with different stakeholders at various stages of the JODI Data supply chain focusing on improving the quality and completeness of the released information. They also reviewed progress made on the 5-Year JODI Action-Plan and commend future JODI activities in line with the Plan.
The JODI Heads welcomed that JODI is now seen as reference in the oil and gas industry, and that JODI Data now appear on commercial data redistribution platforms.
The JODI Heads took note of efforts to improve energy data transparency beyond the current data collection framework by increasing the visibility and accessibility of currently available data, such as coal, on the JODI Website, and to assess thefeasibility of extending JODI coverage to other energy flows.
Upon concluding the meeting, the Heads of JODI Partner Organisations called on all JODI stakeholders in government and industry to continue their support for improving JODI Data quality. The Partners also called on IEF Ministers to ensure that the necessary regulatory and institutional framework, as well as adequate human and financial resources are available to provide comprehensive, reliable, and timely energy data.
New Delhi, India
The JODI Information Seminar was held on 10 April 2018 on the sidelines of the 16 International Energy Forum Ministerial Meeting (IEF16) held in New Delhi, India.
The event was inaugurated by H.E. Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General of the IEF and Sunjay Sudhir, Joint Secretary for International Cooperation of the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, India. H.E. Yury Sentyurin, Secretary General, GECF, H.E. Mohammed Sanusi Barkindo, Secretary General, OPEC as well as representative of APEC, IEA, and OLADE inaugurated the Seminar.
The Seminar gathered government officials, industry experts, and media to revisit the history of JODI, characterised by strong political support since its inception in 2000. Acting as the mechanism for cooperation among national administrations, the JODI Partners were highlighted for their role in the JODI Data supply chain, maintaining a key feature of the initiative.
IEF Secretary General, H.E. Sun Xiansheng highlighted that leaders need reliable data to make foresighted decisions on policies and investments. He reaffirmed the IEFs commitment to enhance global energy data transparency under the JODI framework and saluted collaborations by the JODI Partners amongst international organisations and representatives of national administrations to achieve the shared goals of JODI. Sunjay Sudhir reinforced the significance of reliable data to support short-, and long-term gas market research and forecasts.
Fuad AlZayer, the Coordinator of JODI at the IEF highlighted strong political support and joint efforts of the JODI Partners as well as their member countries, to build the JODI Database since its inception in 2000. Erica Robin, Oil and Gas Section Head, IEA highlighted the key features that differentiate JODI from other data sources while Aziz Yahyai of OPEC demonstrated how OPEC use JODI data for their market research to achieve “Better Data - Better Decisions”. Atreyee Das, Director General, Petroleum Planning and Analysis, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, India, underlined the benefits of energy data transparency for national administrations and India’s journey to enhance their energy data transparency.
Delegates from the JODI Partners Organisations and Seminar attendees deliberated views on the way forward, and avenues for overcoming challenges faced in the processes involved in compiling the JODI World Databases.
Attendees viewed data transparency as paramount to a smooth energy transition and stronger collective efforts towards achieving sustainable development goals, including the UN Sustainable Development Goals: SDG7 - “Ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all”.
The JODI Information Seminar hosted in India held on the sideline of the IEF16 Ministerial was in line with key actions stated in the JODI 5-Year Action Plan which calls for raising awareness of the JODI platform and database, and Identifying and engaging champions for JODI.
By putting the JODI 5-Year Action Plan into practice, the JODI Partners spare no effort to meet with key stakeholders around the world to deliver JODI aspirations for:
The International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Energy Forum (IEF) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) hosted the 6th Joint IEA-IEF-OPEC Workshop on the Interactions between Physical and Financial Energy Markets at the OPEC Secretariat in Vienna, Austria on 15 March 2018.
The high-level meeting was chaired by OPEC Secretary General, HE Mr Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, together with HE Dr Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General of the IEF, and Mr Neil Atkinson, Head of the Oil Industry and Markets Division at the IEA. Discussions were structured into five sessions focusing on the following key topics:
The Workshop is part of the trilateral work programme established by the IEA, IEF and OPEC, and endorsed by energy ministers at the 12th International Energy Forum in Cancún, Mexico, held in March 2010 and subsequent G20 meetings. The Joint Workshop represents the 8th event in this particular ongoing dialogue of the trilateral work programme that considers the evolving inter-linkages between physical and financial energy markets, and issues of common concern not typically addressed in other high-level fora.
To encourage open and informative discussions, the Workshop was held under the Chatham House Rule, with participation of key market participants on the financial and physical sides of the market. The next Joint Workshop is scheduled to take place on 19 March 2019.
Moderated by Bill Farren-Price, Petroleum Policy Intelligence
Moderated by Antoine Halff, Columbia University
Moderated by Giovanni Serio, Vitol