St. Petersburg, Russia
Mr. Aurangzeb Qureshi represented the International Energy Forum at the XI International Scientific Conference – ENERGETIKA XXI: economy, policy, ecology hosted by the St. Petersburg State University of Economics on 14-16 November 2018 in St. Petersburg, Russia. The conference was founded in 2007 as an initiative of Gazprom to address recent developments in the energy sector on a global basis and with a special focus on Russia. Leading energy experts from government, academia and industry participated over three days through presentation and dialogue. This year’s theme was entitled: ‘’The Need for Energy Dialogue in a Fast Changing Environment’’
Presentations focused on topics of decarbonization and emissions reduction along with the role of hydrogen in the energy transition. Energy developments from a macro-level viewpoint from the role of natural gas to the evolving nature of energy security and sustainable energy transition were discussed at length through interactive presentations and intelligent questions and answer sessions. The pace of the energy transition was a relevant and timely discussion point that contributed to insightful dialogue. Presentations on topics involving EU-Russia dynamics, the role of infrastructure and climate and decarbonization were held concurrently in parallel work streams.
The conference also held interactive discussion under Chatham House Rule on the possibility of an all-electric and renewable world and the new geopolitics of energy featuring speakers from academia, research organizations and governmental departments. The role of electrification was put forward given falling costs and exponential growth of renewable technology. However, the concentration of raw materials and possibility of a technology plateau provides a role for hydrogen and other fuels as a possible complement to renewables. From a geopolitical perspective, discussants examined the intersection of geopolitics and energy and how energy influences the foreign policies of the U.S., Russia and the European Union.
The meeting, hosted by The IEA at their Headquarters in Paris, focused on following up on the guidance received from the JODI Heads and IEF Ministers during the JODI Heads IEF16 Ministerial held in India on April 2018 and reaffirmed action plans and activities for 2019.
The meeting further reviewed following progress and items:
Partners agreed to hold a next JODI Conference during second half of 2019 and reviewed a plan to hold a JODI Training Workshop for MENA Region in cooperation with UN-ESCWA in December 2018. Partners also agreed to work with OPEC Fund International Development and AFREC to plan a follow-up JODI Training Workshop for Sub Sahara Africa during first half of 2019. In the meantime, plans for training workshops for Latin America and Asia-Pacific region during 2019 are underway.
Partners also took notes on progress made on planning for an upcoming JODI User Information Seminar during 9th International Forum on Energy for Sustainable Development, 15 November 2018 in Ukraine. The event is held under framework of collaboration among United Nation Economic Commissions the seminar is expected to benefit from large attendance of key policy makers to the Forum.
Energy research and data analytic company Kayrros presented JODI partners their business model charactarised by their application of big data and digital media to their analysis. In the backdrop of increasing attention to digitalisation of the energy industry and policy implication, JODI partners and Kayrros discussed area of possible future cooperation.
The meeting concluded that JODI partners continues to enhance global energy data transparency through actions identified in the 5-Year JODI Action Plan.
Marrakech City, Morocco
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum, Dr Sun Xiansheng, participated in the 11th Arab Energy Conference hosted by Morocco under the high patronage of H.M. King Mohammed VI under the theme Energy and Arab Cooperation on 1-4 October in Marrakech, Morocco. The 11th Arab Energy Conference was opened by the conference chairman HE Aziz Rabbah, Minister of Energy, Mines and Sustainable Development, Morocco and HE Dr. Ahmed Aboul Gheit, Secretary General, the League of Arab States on behalf of the Sponsoring Organizations of the Conference that also involved the Organisation of the Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC), the Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development, and the Arab Industrial Development and Mining Organization.
The IEF Secretary General participated in both the first and second high-level ministerial sessions discussing the Transformations in Global Oil and Gas Markets and their Implications for Arab Oil Exporters, and Energy Security as a Global Partnership respectively. Both sessions were informed by background papers that HE Abbas Ali Al-Naqi, Secretary General of OAPEC, invited from Dr. Bassam Fattouh, Director, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, and the International Energy Forum.
The IEF Dialogue Insight Paper on Energy Security as a Global Partnership highlighted that:
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum, Dr Sun Xiansheng hosted H.E. Luca Ferrari, Ambassador of Italy to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, to deliver a lecture on the impact of the American sanctions on Iran and the energy industry at the IEF on 12 September 2018.
Among the Ambassadors and dignitaries attending, Dr Sun was pleased to welcome H.E. Michele Cervone D’Urso, Ambassador of the European Union Delegation to Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar, who kindly agreed to introduce and moderate the session.
The lecture was conducted under the Chatham House Rule and was attended by high ranking government and industry representatives, as well as senior experts from academia and advisory services.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum, Dr Sun Xiansheng hosted the President of the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, Mr Adam Sieminski, to present on the World Energy Outlook at the IEF on the 9th of September 2018.
Mr. Sieminski started off by highlighting KAPSARC’s mission to advance the understanding of energy challenges and opportunities, through unbiased, independent, and high-calibre research for the benefit of society. Mr Sieminski emphasized the enduring value of the IEF in providing a unique and neutral platform to strengthen market stability through data-driven dialogue on market, policy, and technology evolutions. The exchange of views on energy security, industry transformations, and reserve mechanisms fosters healthy energy markets for both producers and consumers and the effective achievement of shared goals they pursue together. He looked forward to further strengthen collaboration and bringing the growing capabilities of KAPSARC to bear on the IEF platform.
Mr Sieminski shared his perspective on global energy demand and pathways to its evolution. He observed that world energy demand will continue to expand on account of average annual increases in economic growth to 2040. These are forecasted to amount to 4.1% and 1.7% for the non-OECD and OECD regions respectively by the International Energy Outlook the U.S. Energy Information Administration released this summer. Forecasts show that petroleum, liquids and natural gas dominate growth, alongside renewables that will continue to grow at a steady rate and amount to 17% of global energy consumption by 2040. Coal demand will plateau after 2020 and nuclear shows modest growth comprising 21% and 5% of the global energy mix each in 2040. Electrification of energy demand will account for 40% of growth; a new regional pattern that China and India lead with other non-OECD countries.
Against the background of growing uncertainties reflected in the wide range of oil demand forecast across scenario’s, Mr Sieminski underlined that the need for oil will remain robust for decades. Large scale investment in new conventional production is essential to compensate for natural decline rates and maintain secure supplies also when tight oil plateaus and non-OPEC production slows in the 2020s. Though advances in new vehicle technologies command attention, by 2040 and beyond transportation will still be driven by the internal combustion engine. Oil demand growth in the industry and petrochemicals sector remains steady over the forecast period.
With reference to KAPSARC’s research on inventory assessments, Mr Sieminski noted that energy security concepts have evolved from concerns with physical availability to price volatility. Net flows and inventory levels, including 5-year average measurements are insufficient indicators of market balance. As the function of inventories and idle capacity is changing in the new market environment the velocity of oil will matter more to market stability in future.
Mr Sieminski ended his presentation with a reference to KAPSARC’s work on the positive contribution to the global economy of OPEC’s spare capacity. Published earlier this year in the peer-reviewed Energy Journal, the paper provided an estimate of the $170-$200 billion annual value to the world of OPEC’s willingness (especially in Saudi Arabia) to temper volatility in oil prices by using spare capacity to, occasionally, add or remove oil from markets.
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum (IEF) Dr Sun Xiansheng and the President of the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development (RIPED) Dr Zhao Wenzhi welcomed senior representatives from the international energy industry, and high-ranking government representatives of IEF member countries at the 2nd Industry Advisory Committee that IEF and RIPED co-hosted at the Institute’s Science and Technology Centre in Beijing China on 31 July 2018.
Gathered under the theme “Energy Transformations and Oil and Gas Strategies” participants explored how new technology, innovation and policy evolve and what promise oil and gas strategies and market fundamentals hold for energy market stability and orderly transitions in China and the world.
The role of technology is pivotal to global energy security and network stability. Technology enhances rational development of natural resources, efficiency gains in energy supply chains and enables synergies among flows in industrial clusters to enhance productivity. This enables viable transformations for inclusive growth towards healthy and sustainable futures that rely on both hydrocarbon and renewable sources to work in concert with industry and government stakeholders in ever more interconnected energy markets.
Discussions at the 2nd Industry Advisory Committee Workshop took place in two panel sessions moderated by Amos Hochstein, Senior Vice President, Marketing, Tellurian and Dr Kamel Ben Naceur, Chief Economist, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, inviting perspectives from a wide selection of senior government and industry panelists to deepen understanding and strengthen confidence in global energy market functioning.
Discussions were governed by the Chatham House rule, presentations are retrievable below.
Moderated by Amos Hochstein, Senior Vice President, Marketing, Tellurian
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum, Dr Sun Xiansheng and the President of the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Centre, Mr Adam Sieminski jointly hosted Dr Kenneth B Medlock III, Senior Director of the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute to present on the prospects for US oil and gas exports at the IEF on 18 July 2018.
US oil and gas exports have grown substantially and are making landfall in a growing number of countries. This is influencing current market dynamics and will continue to reshape global oil and gas trade. Following the oil market downturn in late 2014, unconventional US oil and gas production has become more resilient due to cost reductions and operator innovation. By 2017, US crude oil and petroleum products exports reached 6.3 million barrels per day while natural gas exports reached 8.7 billion cubic feet per day. Infrastructure and environmental considerations, however, present a potential, albeit temporary, drag on US exports’ stellar rise. Infrastructure constraints are limiting evacuation options and natural gas flaring exemptions for crude oil-directed developments are likely to lapse. The combined effect will be that some production may be shut in or take longer to materialise.
US oil production increased by over 5.5 mb/d over the past decade, covering for production declines that resulted from above-ground constraints elsewhere. Although shale production dipped in 2015, it has recovered since due to productivity improvements and higher prices. Nevertheless, both near-term global market balance and US exports will depend largely on global demand. US exports will be driven by profitability because development is driven by commercial considerations; US oil and gas are not an overt policy vector. Hence, international trade opportunities and the ability to overcome hurdles related to cost and market access through innovation and new infrastructure will drive exports in the long term. This will contribute to an ongoing transformation of global oil and gas trade, along with frontier supplies in the Western Hemisphere – including in several countries ranging from Canada to Argentina.
US shale has made global supply more price responsive. But, while shale can temper long term price movement it remains governed by market fundamentals. So, US shale will lend to greater long term price stability, but the role of inventory and spare capacity as a stabilizing force for short term disturbances in the global market is not diminished. Moreover, given that oil and gas demand will be largely driven by non-OECD markets for the next couple of decades, the importance of traditional sources of supply remains significant.
The Second JODI Inter Secretariat Meeting of 2018, chaired by the International Energy Forum, was hosted by Eurostat on 4-5 July at the Eurostat Headquarters in Luxembourg. Representatives of the JODI Partner Organisations, including APEC, Eurostat, IEA, IEF, OLADE, OPEC & UNSD, met to discuss the progress of JODI initiatives and the way forward in light of the guidance and feedback received from the JODI Heads and IEF Ministers during the 16th IEF Ministerial Meeting and Heads of JODI Meeting held in India on 10-12 April, 2018.
The partners also reviewed progress and action plans regarding the following:
The JODI Partners agreed to host the next JODI Capacity Building Workshop in collaboration with the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (UNESCWA) for the Middle East/North Africa region in December 2018. The Partners also encouraged ongoing work with The OPEC Fund for International Development (OFID) and the Africa Energy Commission (AFREC) to follow up on efforts to increase the quality of JODI Data submission from Africa. The partners agreed to host JODI Capacity Building Workshops in Africa and Latin America during the first half of 2019, followed by a Workshop in Asia in late 2019.
The Partners agreed to continue the JODI User Information Seminars with plans to host the next Seminar alongside the UNECE 9th International Forum in Ukraine in November 2018, taking advantage of the large number of energy experts who will be in attendance.
Finally, the JODI Partners deliberated on how to continue to improve cooperation and inclusiveness of collaboration with other regional energy organisations such as AFREC, OAPEC, OFID and others, who are keen to share benefits of association with JODI and strive towards greater global data transparency.
IEF Energy Analyst, Mr. Aurangzeb Qureshi, represented Dr Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General, International Energy Forum, at the Global Forum on Energy Security which was co-hosted by the Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics (IQTE) at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS), and the United States Energy Security Council (USESC) in Beijing on 18-19 June 2018. The Global Forum on Energy Security has become China’s premier international platform for deliberations on the changing global energy landscape and China’s role in global energy security that aims to promote research and information exchanges on energy security among think tanks, government officials, diplomats and industry leaders,
The 2018 conference was focussed on how energy governance and innovation play a role in China’s “New Belt Road Initiative” (BRI) given the importance and scale of the BRI as it relates to global energy security. Presentations focussed on the future of China’s energy demand followed by projects dedicated to the promotion of development and connectivity. Sustainability was also an important topic throughout the conference. The future of energy as it pertains to “smart society” was discussed at length through presentations by think tanks and companies specialising in renewable energy solutions.
The forum also addressed energy geopolitics featuring speakers from Chinese and American think tanks with special emphasis on energy governance and President Xi Jinping’s geopolitical and geo-economic vision in Eurasia. Detailed analysis of developments in Asia Pacific oil and gas markets including Asian refining and trade and LNG upstream, downstream, transportation and infrastructure dynamics were also discussed. The forum contributed to sharpening collective focus on the development of the LNG industry in China, the future of LNG imports in light of increasing coal to gas switching, and related new investments in gas storage.
San Carlos de Bariloche, Argentina
Dr Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General, International Energy Forum (IEF) participated in the 2nd G20 Energy Transitions Working Group, and G20 Energy Ministers Meeting hosted by the Presidency of Argentina under the theme “Building Consensus for Fair and Sustainable Development” on 13-15 June 2018 in San Carlos de Bariloche, Argentina.
To advise the G20 Delegations, the Presidency of Argentina circulated the Concluding Statement of the IEF16 Ministerial Meeting that HE Dharmendra Pradhan, Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas and Minister for Skill Development and Entrepreneurship of India, issued on behalf of the IEF16 host country, India, on 12 April 2018, in advance of the G20 Energy Transitions Working Group and Energy Ministers Meetings.
The IEF Secretary General was given the floor in Session III and IV on Energy Access and Data Transparency of the Energy Transitions Working Group to briefly highlight interrelations and IEF engagement in these areas that it carries out in close collaboration with the OPEC Fund for International Development (OFID) and as the coordinator of the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) with JODI Partner Organisations: The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), Eurostat, the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), the International Energy Agency (IEA), Organización Latino Americana de Energia (OLADE) , the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD).
The Secretary General took part in the G20 Energy Ministers Meeting proceedings and held several bilateral meetings with participating heads of delegations.
Previous G20 Meetings
San Carlos de Bariloche, Argentina
Dr Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General of the International Energy Forum took part in the Natural Gas Day hosted by the International Gas Union and the Argentinian Institute of Oil & Gas (Instituto Argentino del Petróleo y del Gas, IAPG) under the theme “Natural Gas: Facilitating Growth and Cleaner Energy Systems” in San Carlos de Bariloche on 12 June 2018.
Benefitting from the institutional support of the Ministry of Energy and Mining of Argentina, the meeting took place on the eve of Argentina’s G20 Energy Transitions Working Group and Energy Ministers Meetings on 13-15 June. David Carroll, IGU President and HE Juan José Aranguren, Minister of Energy and Mining of Argentina welcomed delegates and provided opening statements.
Dr Sun Xiansheng moderated panel session discussions on the role of gas as part of the pathway to achieving a sustainable energy future. Other panel sessions focused on gas as an abundant, accessible and flexible energy source, and contributor to climate change mitigation and clean air. Discussions demonstrated that gas is both a catalyst for orderly energy transitions and sustainable development.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum, Dr Sun Xiansheng hosted Mr Alexander Pögl, Head of Business Development of JBC Energy to present on recent oil market dynamics and JBC demand and supply projections at the IEF Headquarters in Riyadh on 10 May 2018. The presentation provided perspectives on OPEC supply strategies, US tight oil production and the repercussions of crude quality changes, including the impact of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) bunker fuel regulation on oil markets.
On the demand side, Mr Pögl highlighted that after almost six years of sustained demand growth, increases in consumption may slow due to rising prices for transport fuels that, out of all refined products, are forecast to remain the strongest force to shape the dynamics of demand. Pointing at a recent upswing in European oil demand, gasoline and diesel demand are projected to come under pressure in the 2020s.
On the supply side, Mr Pögl touched on the interaction between OPEC and US tight oil supplies driven by the Permian Basin. Though the first phase of US tight oil production was largely absorbed by US refineries, new production will be directed to international markets after infrastructure constraints are overcome to draw US stockpiles to international markets. He also noted that technology advances allow the industry to operate with greater efficiency. This has not only enabled more resilient unconventional production but is also likely to decrease conventional decline rates. The presentation concluded by discussing the IMO Bunker Fuels Regulation that limits sulphur emissions to 0.5 percent globally by 2020 and what this entails for LNG and oil product demand and how industry can best meet this challenge.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum, Dr Sun Xiansheng was pleased to host Dr Zhang Hualin, Director General, Policy Research Office, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) as the Head of the CNPC Delegation presenting on the China “One Belt One Road” Initiative (OBOR) and the Role of Natural Gas in China’s Energy Transition at the IEF Headquarters in Riyadh on 8 May 2018.
CNPC’s presentation on “The Belt and Road”: Oil and Gas Cooperation Basics”, provided an overview of OBOR including CNPC’s role in the project ‘s scale and breadth that involves 68+ countries with a combined population of 4.4 billion. The OBOR initiative revolves around 3 Principles and 5 Priorities: The Principle of Joint Discussion, Co-construction and Sharing with Priorities focussed on Policy Coordination, Facilities Connectivity, Unimpeded Trade, Financial Integration, and People-to-People Bonds. The substance of the presentation focused on CNPC’s role in managing risks and opportunities in the energy sector dimension of the 5 overseas oil and gas cooperation areas of the OBOR initiative by implementing these principles and priorities.
CNPC’s presentation on “The Role of Gas in China’s Energy Transition” and focussed on natural gas demand-supply dynamics including China’s growing natural gas consumption and domestic production. CNPC baseline projection for natural gas demand to grow by 8.6% between 2016-2020 and 4.3% between 2020-2030 reaching 290 billion cubic meters (bcm) and 440 bcm in 2020 and 2040 respectively. Excellence in natural gas supply chain management must be achieved by the 5As of Availability, Accessibility, Assurance, Affordability and Accountability as accelerated urbanisation and clean air requirements demand.
For China’s gas industry to enter a period of strategic opportunity and rapid development price and infrastructure hurdles need to be overcome according to CNPC. Alongside China’s increasing reliance on international energy markets for oil, gas and coal imports – for which foreign dependencies reached 68%, 39% and 9.5% respectively in 2017 – the energy transition challenges China faces relate to a coal dominated and carbon intensive industry. To overcome these challenges, China’s 13th Five Year Energy Plan promotes expansion of the natural gas market, scaling up renewables as well as deploying clean and ultra-efficient technologies, while reducing excess coal capacity.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum (IEF) Dr Sun Xiansheng welcomed Dr Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) to present an IEF Lecture on Global Energy Market trends at IEF Headquarters in Riyadh on 2 May 2018.
In his presentation and roundtable discussion, moderated by the Ambassador of Germany to Saudi Arabia, His Excellency Dieter Walter Haller, Dr Birol complimented the IEF Secretary General on the successful conclusion of the IEF16 Ministerial Meeting hosted by India on 10-12 April in New Delhi. He noted that Asian economies such as India have moved closer towards the centre stage of world energy affairs and highlighted that global oil demand growth had rebounded in 2017 at twice the rate of the past decade. The need for investment in oil has therefore not diminished, given continued growth in demand and 3 mb/d of declines from mature fields each year.
Asian energy demand growth in which India has taken over the lead from China will influence global energy markets trends. Natural gas, electrification and digitalisation will be new driving forces alongside growing demand for oil in transport and petrochemicals sectors and for clean technologies in coal fired power generation. Dr Birol pointed towards a moderate decoupling between global economic growth and carbon emissions over recent years accompanied by large-scale deployment of wind and solar technologies. Although, after three years of remaining flat, global energy-related CO2 emissions grew in 2017 partly due to less emphasis being placed on energy efficiency.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum, Dr Sun Xiansheng was pleased to host Bill Farren-Price, CEO of Petroleum Policy Intelligence (PPI), and Derek Brower, Managing Director of Research to present on oil supply risks and opportunities at the IEF Headquarters in Riyadh on Wednesday May 2, 2018.
The first of the two-part presentation focused on geopolitical risks to oil supply that may create volatility in a tightening market. Discussion revolved around the political volatility in Venezuela and the Middle East including what a potential withdrawal by the United States from the 2015 Iran deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action may imply for an oil market moving towards equilibrium. PPI concludes that OPEC spare capacity is limited, and security of supply is now more exposed to geopolitical risks.
Part two of the presentation discussed whether tightening supply-demand balances risk a new oil cycle by eroding demand or will stimulate more investment. Participants discussed how geopolitical risks, new policies, and technology advances will work together to assess their impact on oil market stability.
New Delhi, India
The Government of India hosted 90+ delegations including 50 energy ministers, 30 CEOs, 12 heads of international organisations and 500+ guests at the 16th biennial International Energy Forum Ministerial Meeting (IEF16) in New Delhi on 10-12 April 2018 with the support of the People’s Republic of China and the Republic of Korea as co-hosts. The meeting was held under the theme: "The Future of Global Energy Security - Transition, Technology, Trade and Investment". Providing the opportunity for attendees to discuss relevant issues that currently affect global energy markets, the IEF Ministerial is the largest gathering of energy ministers in the world.
Meeting on the neutral global platform that the IEF provides to strengthen international cooperation on energy through dialogue, the IEF16 focused on how global shifts, transition policies and new technologies influence market stability and future investment and trade patterns in the energy sector. Dialogue among Ministers and industry leaders on how global shifts, new policies and technologies change investment and trade patterns and influence energy market security, facilitate orderly transitions, and accelerate the achievement of shared goals.
On behalf of the IEF16 host country, Shri Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India inaugurated the IEF16 Ministerial Meeting. Prime Minister Modi shared his energy vision as comprising four pillars – energy access, energy efficiency, energy sustainability and energy security. He called for a mutually supportive relationship between producers and consumers. He also called for optimal use of the neutral platform of the IEF to build a global consensus on ‘responsible pricing’, that serves the mutual interests of both producers and consumers. H.E. Dharmendra Pradhan, Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas and Minister for Skill Development and Entrepreneurship of India, HE Khalid Al Falih, Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and H.E. Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General of the International Energy Forum also addressed delegates at the Inaugural Session, setting the scene for the Forum’s discussions.
Ministerial dialogue was structured in four thematic plenary sessions, and four parallel roundtables focussed on:
Meeting at a time of uncertainty, dynamism and change, IEF16 ministers acknowledged that global energy security is taking on new meanings that have just as much to do with adaptability as energy access, affordability, and inclusive and sustainable growth. IEF16 ministers noted that their presence in New Delhi manifests that, through open dialogue, energy market stakeholders can move forward faster and farther when embracing shared value propositions that benefit all. Noting from contributions by both the International Energy Agency and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries that the fossil fuel sector shall continue to provide around three-quarters of energy demand in 2040, as projected in their main scenarios, IEF16 delegates focused dialogue on the mutual reinforcing role of fossil fuels and clean energy technologies, including renewables calling for reliable, and realistic transformations that all can afford, and rational responses to the global energy challenges we face together.
Delegates took note of the contributions by the OPEC Fund for International Development (OFID), and the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), acknowledging that global agreements on shared goals, and energy access concluded under the aegis of the United Nations in 2015, are in the early phases of implementation and that despite progress, collective efforts must be stepped up to achieve universal energy access and alleviate energy poverty by 2030.
IEF16 delegates focussed on the limited volume of upstream oil and gas sector investments as a consequence of the downward price cycle, and the risks and opportunities that new unconventional production resilience brings to the stability of oil and gas markets globally. Ministers and industry leaders welcomed enhanced dialogue on the role of new and existing energy producers and innovative cooperative arrangements to collectively shoulder the responsibility of maintaining oil and gas market stability and ensure investment moves forward in a timely and cost-effective manner in both short and longer cycle oil and gas projects.
Delegates welcomed the rapid development of new energy technologies and the competitive disciplines a more diverse and vibrant market environment creates for the industry at large. To ensure successful energy sector transformations, IEF16 delegates acknowledged that more dialogue is needed on new policy and technology deployment to facilitate cost-effective transitions between new and existing technologies. Delegates recognised that failure to protect investments of existing assets in favour of new technologies will deter the effective mobilisation of capital in new projects as well.
IEF16 delegates noted that global shifts in energy demand and supply patterns, as well as rapid technology advances alter world energy market dynamics and compel corresponding governance structures including the institutional set up of the IEF energy dialogue to respond to evolving producer-consumer relations. IEF16 delegates also acknowledged that as energy markets are governed by complexity, enhanced dialogue on probable energy pathways will improve market transparency and work to achieve shared goals together. They noted that institutional cooperation has gone from strength to strength to make different outlook projections more comparable, raise the energy dialogue to a higher level and welcomed sharpened focus on reducing differences in historical baseline data, improving fuel type classifications and the modernisation of country classifications.
IEF16 ministers, industry leaders, and heads of international organisations applauded the leadership of the government of India in taking the IEF energy dialogue forward as host of the 16th International Energy Forum Ministerial. Thanking the government of India for its generous hospitality, and the People’s Republic of China and the Republic of Korea for their support as co-hosts, IEF16 delegates took note of the productive outcomes of their dialogue reflected in the concluding statement (available for download) that H.E. Dharmendra Pradhan, Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas, and Minister for Skill Development and Entrepreneurship presented on behalf of the government of India
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IEF Knowledge Partner
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New Delhi, India
The heads and representatives of the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) Partners who were present for the 16th IEF Ministerial Meeting in New Delhi, India - Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), the International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Energy Forum, (IEF), Organización Latino americana de Energia (OLADE) , and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) - met on 10 April 2018 for the 6th Meeting of the Heads of JODI Partner Organisations to take account of progress made since their last high-level meeting in Algiers in 2016.
The meeting of the Heads of the JODI Partners is held every 2 years in association with the IEF Ministerial Meeting. The main objective of the Head of JODI meeting is to help determine and set forth an agreed path forward for JODI based on the outcome of consultations with the JODI data-user community and the aspirations of the Partners to deliver ongoing improvements to the Initiative.
The JODI Heads discussed how they can best collaborate with different stakeholders at various stages of the JODI Data supply chain focusing on improving the quality and completeness of the released information. They also reviewed progress made on the 5-Year JODI Action-Plan and commend future JODI activities in line with the Plan.
The JODI Heads welcomed that JODI is now seen as reference in the oil and gas industry, and that JODI Data now appear on commercial data redistribution platforms.
The JODI Heads took note of efforts to improve energy data transparency beyond the current data collection framework by increasing the visibility and accessibility of currently available data, such as coal, on the JODI Website, and to assess thefeasibility of extending JODI coverage to other energy flows.
Upon concluding the meeting, the Heads of JODI Partner Organisations called on all JODI stakeholders in government and industry to continue their support for improving JODI Data quality. The Partners also called on IEF Ministers to ensure that the necessary regulatory and institutional framework, as well as adequate human and financial resources are available to provide comprehensive, reliable, and timely energy data.
New Delhi, India
The JODI Information Seminar was held on 10 April 2018 on the sidelines of the 16 International Energy Forum Ministerial Meeting (IEF16) held in New Delhi, India.
The event was inaugurated by H.E. Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General of the IEF and Sunjay Sudhir, Joint Secretary for International Cooperation of the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, India. H.E. Yury Sentyurin, Secretary General, GECF, H.E. Mohammed Sanusi Barkindo, Secretary General, OPEC as well as representative of APEC, IEA, and OLADE inaugurated the Seminar.
The Seminar gathered government officials, industry experts, and media to revisit the history of JODI, characterised by strong political support since its inception in 2000. Acting as the mechanism for cooperation among national administrations, the JODI Partners were highlighted for their role in the JODI Data supply chain, maintaining a key feature of the initiative.
IEF Secretary General, H.E. Sun Xiansheng highlighted that leaders need reliable data to make foresighted decisions on policies and investments. He reaffirmed the IEFs commitment to enhance global energy data transparency under the JODI framework and saluted collaborations by the JODI Partners amongst international organisations and representatives of national administrations to achieve the shared goals of JODI. Sunjay Sudhir reinforced the significance of reliable data to support short-, and long-term gas market research and forecasts.
Fuad AlZayer, the Coordinator of JODI at the IEF highlighted strong political support and joint efforts of the JODI Partners as well as their member countries, to build the JODI Database since its inception in 2000. Erica Robin, Oil and Gas Section Head, IEA highlighted the key features that differentiate JODI from other data sources while Aziz Yahyai of OPEC demonstrated how OPEC use JODI data for their market research to achieve “Better Data - Better Decisions”. Atreyee Das, Director General, Petroleum Planning and Analysis, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, India, underlined the benefits of energy data transparency for national administrations and India’s journey to enhance their energy data transparency.
Delegates from the JODI Partners Organisations and Seminar attendees deliberated views on the way forward, and avenues for overcoming challenges faced in the processes involved in compiling the JODI World Databases.
Attendees viewed data transparency as paramount to a smooth energy transition and stronger collective efforts towards achieving sustainable development goals, including the UN Sustainable Development Goals: SDG7 - “Ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all”.
The JODI Information Seminar hosted in India held on the sideline of the IEF16 Ministerial was in line with key actions stated in the JODI 5-Year Action Plan which calls for raising awareness of the JODI platform and database, and Identifying and engaging champions for JODI.
By putting the JODI 5-Year Action Plan into practice, the JODI Partners spare no effort to meet with key stakeholders around the world to deliver JODI aspirations for:
The International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Energy Forum (IEF) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) hosted the 6th Joint IEA-IEF-OPEC Workshop on the Interactions between Physical and Financial Energy Markets at the OPEC Secretariat in Vienna, Austria on 15 March 2018.
The high-level meeting was chaired by OPEC Secretary General, HE Mr Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, together with HE Dr Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General of the IEF, and Mr Neil Atkinson, Head of the Oil Industry and Markets Division at the IEA. Discussions were structured into five sessions focusing on the following key topics:
The Workshop is part of the trilateral work programme established by the IEA, IEF and OPEC, and endorsed by energy ministers at the 12th International Energy Forum in Cancún, Mexico, held in March 2010 and subsequent G20 meetings. The Joint Workshop represents the 8th event in this particular ongoing dialogue of the trilateral work programme that considers the evolving inter-linkages between physical and financial energy markets, and issues of common concern not typically addressed in other high-level fora.
To encourage open and informative discussions, the Workshop was held under the Chatham House Rule, with participation of key market participants on the financial and physical sides of the market. The next Joint Workshop is scheduled to take place on 19 March 2019.
Moderated by Bill Farren-Price, Petroleum Policy Intelligence
Moderated by Antoine Halff, Columbia University
Moderated by Giovanni Serio, Vitol
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Dr Sun Xiansheng, IEF Secretary General took great pleasure in hosting Mr Mark Finley, General Manager, Global Energy Markets and US Economics, BP, to present the BP Energy Outlook 2018 at IEF Headquarters in Riyadh on Tuesday, 13 March 2018.
Informed by BP’s Statistical Review of Global Energy, the BP Energy Outlook 2018 provides high-quality data and well-informed assessments on world energy market developments. As the global energy landscape is changing, the outlook outlines BP's views of future global energy markets through 2040 and explores key uncertainties. This year’s presentation informed a distinguished audience of diplomats, industry representatives and academic researchers on the growing role of developing economies in energy consumption, continued energy efficiency gains, and the increasing share of unconventional production, as well as non-fossil fuels in global energy supply. Providing perspectives from one of the key players in the energy industry on global energy transformations, the presentation Mr Mark Finley gave upon the invitation of Dr Sun Xiansheng on the IEF platform advanced open, transparent and informed energy dialogue among IEF stakeholders.
The 16th Regional JODI Training Workshop targeting Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Europe was held in Odessa, Ukraine from 12-16 March 2018. The event was held as a part of IEA for EU4Energy Training Week on Monthly Statistics hosted by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the European Union under the EU4Energy Project initiative.
The Workshop was organised by the IEF with the support of the JODI Partners: APEC, Eurostat, GECF, IEA, OPEC, OLADE and UNSD. Trainers from Eurostat, GECF and UNSD were present to benefit the energy data professionals in charge of hydrocarbon data collection and dissemination at national administrations in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Europe.
More than 50 delegates from 10 countries took part in the Workshop designed to raise awareness of JODI and improve the national capacity to achieve better JODI data submission from each represented country within the region. The Workshop was opened by Mr Ihor Verner, Chair of State Statics Services of Ukraine, and was also attended by representatives from the Ministry of Energy and Coal Industry of Ukraine.
Hands-on exercises provided a unique opportunity to explore methodologies for condensing data from complex energy supply chains into simple JODI questionnaire formats. Throughout these intensive training activities, attendees actively exchanged in dialogue on data with the JODI Partner organisations and amongst themselves, to share knowledge on the best practices related to data reporting mechanisms.
Workshop attendees also had the opportunity to participate in a parallel forum on transportation policies held under EU4Energy framework, with a special emphasis on the need for reliable data to make effective policy decisions. The theme of this forum highlighted the JODI mission for Better Data, Better Decisions.
JODI Regional Training Workshops fall directly in line with Objective 3 of the JODI 5-Year Action Plan to continue to strengthen capacity building efforts to improve JODI Data quality, timeliness and availability.
The JODI Partners will continue to follow-up on outstanding issues identified during the workshop and commitments made by participating countries to ensure greater data transparency within the region.
Washington DC, USA
Oil and gas markets witnessed profound changes on both the supply and demand side over the past three years. Market stability, however, appears more than before, to rest on agreements and technologies yet to be fully tested in the new market setting. Though new unconventional volumes have shortened investment cycles, and policy shifts on the demand side may slow demand growth rates, increasing oil and gas consumption must ultimately be balanced by a return of investment in conventional production and infrastructure.
To discuss energy security in the new market setting, Dr Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General of the International Energy Forum (IEF), and Mr Barry K. Worthington, Executive Director of the United States Energy Association (USEA) co-hosted a First IEF Industry Advisory Committee Workshop in Washington DC on 27 February 2018.
The Workshop explored developments that are reshaping energy markets to help inform dialogue at the 16th International Energy Forum Ministerial that India will host in New Delhi on 10-12 April 2018 under the theme “The Future of Global Energy Security”.
Mrs Andrea Lockwood, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Africa, Middle East, Europe & Eurasia of the U.S. Department of Energy, and member of the IEF Executive Board welcomed participants. To set the stage for two panel sessions with representatives from industry, Dr Linda Capuano, Administrator of the U.S. Energy Administration and Mr Biswajist Roy, Director of Oil India Limited gave key note addresses. Joseph McMonigle, President & Cofounder of the Abraham Group, and Vicky Bailey, Founder of Anderson Stratton International, Director Cheniere Energy, Former Assistant Secretary of International Affairs at DOE, and Chairman of the USAE, moderated discussions on continuity and change in energy markets, and transparency respectively assessing strengths and weaknesses of the new oil and gas market setting and requirements for investment to move forward in future.
Discussions were governed by Chatham House rule, opening remarks and presentations are retrievable below.
Moderated by Joseph McMonigle, President and Cofounder, The Abraham Group
Moderated by Vicky Bailey, Founder Anderson Stratton International, Director Cheniere Energy, former Assistant Secretary of International Affairs at DOE
Buenos Aires, Argentina
The International Energy Forum (IEF) participated in the 1st Energy Efficiency & Renewables Forum and Energy Transitions Working Group, held under the G20 Presidency of Argentina with the motto "Building Consensus for Fair and Sustainable Development" on 21-23 February 2018 in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
In the 1st Session of the G20 Energy Transitions Working Group the G20 Presidency requested the IEF to contribute to G20 session discussions on energy data transparency and markets digitalisation by presenting on JODI-Oil and Gas. Delegates observed that market transparency has always been at the heart of the IEF Energy Dialogue on energy security, and the mission of the G20. Enhancing collaboration on data transparency will become more important to strengthen energy security, sustainable development, and orderly transitions in the interests of all stakeholders. The greater ease of access to more granular data that digitisation offers will allow energy policy makers and investors to make better decisions faster in a more dynamically evolving world energy market.
The IEF also participated in the Energy Efficiency & Renewables Forum following the 2nd G20 Energy Ministers’ call on the International Energy Forum in 2016 under the Chinese Presidency to establish a Knowledge Sharing Framework on Energy Efficiency in support of the G20 Energy Efficiency Leading Programme. This extends work on an Asian Energy Efficiency Knowledge Sharing Framework under the IEF that Energy Ministers gathered at the 6th Asian Ministerial Energy Roundtable in Doha, Qatar in 2015 endorsed upon a proposal from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia with the support of Japan, and welcomed at the IEF15 Ministerial Meeting in Algiers in 2016.
At the 7th Asian Ministerial Energy Roundtable held in Bangkok, Thailand in 2017, Ministers encouraged stakeholders to pool efforts in globally integrated frameworks to accelerate energy efficiency gains across the full energy sector spectrum and leverage the IEF Energy Efficiency Knowledge Sharing Framework, in close collaboration with relevant organisations, and governance platforms in Asia, as well as with other international organisations such as the International Partnership for Energy Efficiency Cooperation, the IEA, the International Energy Charter, OPEC, SEforAll, the United Nations, working together in the G20 Energy Efficiency Leading Programme adopted under the Chinese G20 Presidency in 2016 and other relevant arrangements to further enhance energy productivity in Asia and the wider world economy.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The IEF welcomed Mr Rob Gardner, Manager for the Economics & Energy Division of the ExxonMobil Corporate Strategic Planning Department at its Riyadh headquarters on 18 February 2018. Mr Gardner presented the 2018 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 which provides ExxonMobil’s perspective on energy demand and supply through 2040. The report informed a distinguished audience of diplomats, industry representatives and academic researchers on the company’s long-term global view of factors that will shape the world’s energy future. Findings from the outlook support ExxonMobil’s business strategies and investment plans to navigate through the changing energy market environment. The re-conceptualised report includes various alternative scenarios adding important insights to help inform an open and transparent energy dialogue from the perspective of a key energy sector stakeholder.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum (IEF), Dr Sun Xiansheng and the Head of Research at the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC), David Hobbs moderated dialogue on energy security in transition at the 4th IEF-KAPSARC Thought Leaders’ Roundtable meeting on 15 February 2018. Discussions, governed by Chatham House Rule, explored whether fossil fuels will share common or differentiated energy futures, and how energy transition policies influence oil and gas investment assessing realities and visions.
The roundtable examined the future of oil, gas, and coal in a low demand growth environment. Panelists highlighted how subsidies on both fossil-, and non-fossil fuels, from coal to renewables, affect supply and demand patterns in producer and consumer countries differently according to varying needs. Panelists from consumer countries emphasised the importance of infrastructure investment to ensure networks are sufficiently resilient and robust to accommodate new technologies and changing demand and supply patterns. Though technology breakthroughs in unconventional oil and gas production and decentralised electricity generation are difficult to foresee, producers and consumers who swiftly adapt to these developments will succeed in the new market environment. Producer country representatives underlined the importance of improving energy efficiency in energy supply chains and economic sectors that rely on fossil fuels. They also highlighted the importance of diversifying energy technologies by unlocking investment from the private sector.
The roundtable follows up on a year-long engagement to explore scenarios for producers and consumers navigating the transition to a lower carbon energy future. The initiative was launched at the Third IEF-KAPSARC Thought Leaders’ Roundtable in 2017. Outcomes of these discussions will help to inform the global energy dialogue at the 16th International Energy Forum Ministerial Meeting under the theme "The Future of Global Energy Security, Transition, Technology, Trade, and Investment" hosted by India in New Delhi on 10-12 April 2018.