- International Energy Forum
- Global Energy Security Through Dialogue
- Knowledge Generation Through Dialogue
Shanghai, China
1st IEF-Shanghai Futures Exchange Industry Advisory Committee
29 May 2019 Shanghai, China
Dr Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General of the International Energy Forum (IEF) and Mr Jiang Yan, Chairman of the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) hosted the the 1st IEF-SHFE Industry Advisory Committee on the Emerging Asian Energy Trading Market within the framework of the 16th Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum (SDMF) that took place on 27-29 May in the International Convention Centre Shanghai, China. Dialogue focussed on the role of newly emerging price discovery mechanisms and risk management tools for evolving producer-consumer relations to strengthen secure, efficient, and sustainable energy trade and investment flows in Asia’s growth economies.
The meeting was co-hosted by the IEF and SHFE together with the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE), the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation (CPCIF) and sponsored by the Bank of Communications of China (BOCOM). Mr Fu Xiangsheng, Vice Chairman, CPCIF and Mr Xu Bin, President and Party Secretary, BOCOM Shanghai Branch, welcomed delegates and provided opening remarks alongside the hosts. Mr Fu Chengyu, former Chairman, SINOPEC & CNOOC gave a key note speech as a special guest. Discussions were structured in three sessions that focussed on:
Energy market stability will continue to rely on building understanding and trust among producers and consumers that seek to foster new bonds in the Asian Pacific region. This ranges from new price formation and risk management tools, bolstering confidence in price discovery and reporting agencies, to an equitable distribution of burdens and benefits among stakeholders that maintain energy security and resilience through spare capacity, strategic stocks, commercial inventories and enhanced data transparency.
The Shanghai Futures Exchange, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, and other newly emerging trade platforms stand at the centre of these new momentous developments in Asia. Around 60% of crude traded on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange is sourced from the Middle East which ships 75% of its total exports to Asia. New large importers increasingly influence price formation and will move pricing East of Suez as more crude flows from the Middle East to China, India, and other growth economies in South West, and North East Asia.
Participants found that dialogue on the platform that the IEF provides in close collaboration with the Shanghai Futures Exchange will strengthen newly emerging market signals from transparent and reliable functioning trading hubs. This will offer market participants the opportunity to manage risks effectively while reducing transaction cost in the interest of secure, efficient, and sustainable energy markets in Asia and beyond.
Outcomes will help to inform the global energy dialogue including the 8th Asian Ministerial Energy Roundtable hosted by the United Arab Emirates on 9-10 September 2019 in Abu Dhabi with India as co-host, and the 17th International Energy Forum Ministerial hosted by China in 2020 with Morocco as co-host.
The full annotated agenda and presentations made available to download are listed below under key documents.
Key Links
Cape Town, South Africa
Hosted by HE Jeff Radebe, Minister of Energy of South Africa, Dr Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General of the International Energy Forum (IEF), and Mr Belkacem Ouzrourou, Director Africa Region of the OPEC Fund for International Development (OFID) opened the 4th IEF-OFID Symposium on Energy Poverty that took place on 2-3 May 2019 in Cape Town, South Africa. Dr Dapo Odulaja, Head of the Data Services Department of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also welcomed delegates on behalf of HE Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, Secretary General, OPEC.
HE Jeff Radebe underlined the importance that South Africa attaches to international engagement and dialogue on the platform that the IEF provides to attract investment, improve energy systems, and ensure affordable access to modern energy services for all. Dr Sun Xiansheng, and Mr Belkacem Ouzrourou highlighted the links that exist between the alleviation of energy poverty and economic development. They recognised the need for enhanced dialogue on the many opportunities available and new energy policy and technologies offer for investment and expanding capacity. Invited to give a keynote address, HE Mahaman Laouan Gaya, Secretary General of the African Producers’ Organisation (APPO) addressed the central role that affordable and modern energy services play in the fulfilment of all Sustainable Development Goals of the UN2030 Agenda, and how hurdles may be overcome to close the gap.
Set in a context in which a minority of Sub-Sharan Africa has access to electricity, and under 15% have access to clean cooking fuels according to the latest UN figures. The 4th IEF-OFID Symposium Symposium was structured in five key sessions:
Session moderators and panellists included senior representatives of intergovernmental organisations, as well as government, and private sector companies including Rashid Ali Abdallah, Executive Director of the African Energy Commission (AFREC) and senior experts of the Economic Community for West African States (ECOWAS), the United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO), the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), and JODI Partner organisations.
Discussions focussed on the solutions that alternative energy delivery systems such as Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) and smart grid electrification can offer for clean cooking and rural areas respectively when compared to the cost of national network extensions. The delivery of clean cooking and electricity services is linked to a nexus of development in health, education, gender equality, and opportunities for social-economic growth and stability. Increased public-private energy sector cooperation should extend across borders to enable more diverse and secure energy supply. Outreach on energy policy and regulation will facilitate both national and regional infrastructure investment. Symposium participants acknowledged that while advances are being made there is a need to improve regional cooperation towards the provision of universal energy access to modern energy services and the complete alleviation of energy poverty.
The full agenda and the concluding statement are available to download alongside speeches and presentations as listed below.
Moderated by: Ivan Yaholnitisky, Director, Bethel Business and Community Development Center in Lesotho
Cape Town, South Africa
The Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) Energy Data Transparency Workshop for Sustainable Future was held on 30 April-3 May 2019 in Cape Town, South Africa supported by energy data experts from both public and private sectors and attended by some 60 attendees from 14 countries. The workshop was held with the support of JODI partner organisations under the auspices of HE Jeff Radebe MP, Minister of Energy of South Africa.
HE Jeff Radebe remarked that policies, informed by sound data are vital to the improvement of energy systems and economic development, stating that the importance of energy data could not be underestimated. Attendees noted that by building capacity for energy data collection in Africa, national administrations can organise and display data where it is accessible, not just to industry, but to governments, investors and academics to strengthen data transparency and inform dialogue. The availability of such data enhances evidence based strategies for economic development by informing decision makers of a countries energy needs. The active monitoring of policy impact also facilitates policy adjustments, by providing the necessary feedback for assessment of policy progress.
Attendees of the four-day workshop also outlined the importance of energy data to contribute to a more stable global energy market and to increase financial investments in energy infrastructure. This facilitates a less volatile energy future recognising that energy transitions require a quantitative understanding of the current status quo. Through the workshop technical linkage between annual and monthly data collections were explained alongside differences in advantages and focuses of these two energy data collection activities from policy making perspective. To provide for both data collection time frames JODI (Oil and Gas) monthly data collection, annual energy statistics and balances compilation as well as principles of energy efficiency indicators were explained. Energy data transparency in Africa provided improved understanding of their energy system, challenges and opportunities to enable better long term planning and investment decision making.
The workshop covered the following topics:
In addition, the Workshop ran alongside the 4th IEF-OFID Symposium of Energy Poverty at the same venue. The workshop attendees benefited from both events, seeing the application that collection of energy statistics has to decision making in the alleviation of energy poverty in Africa.
Presentations are available for download here.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The International Energy Forum welcomed the Deputy Director of the Foreign Economic Relations Research Department of the Research Center of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China, Dr Wang Jinzhao on 25 April to give a presentation on energy cooperation between China and Saudi Arabia, and the wider region.
Dr Wang’s presentation featured an analysis of the cooperation between China and Saudi Arabia, as the largest oil importing and exporting nations, respectively. Discussions focused on long-term strategy to build comprehensive, reciprocal, sustainable and inclusive cooperation between China and Saudi Arabia, while strengthening oil trade relationships, expanding mutual investment in oil and gas and promoting energy cooperation in the Belt and Road regions. The presentation was followed by a discussion among the dignitaries from the Riyadh energy community in attendance.
Vienna, Austria
The International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Energy Forum (IEF) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) hosted the 3rd Joint IEA-IEF-OPEC Technical Meeting on the Interactions between Physical and Financial Energy Markets at the OPEC Secretariat in Vienna, Austria on 28 March 2019.
OPEC Secretary General, HE Mr. Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, HE Dr. Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General of the IEF, and Mr. Neil Atkinson, Head of the Oil Industry and Markets Division at the IEA jointly opened the senior experts meeting. Discussions were structured into three sessions focusing on the following key topics:
The 3rd Joint IEA-IEF-OPEC Technical Meeting is held once every two years and forms integral part of the trilateral work programme established by the IEA, IEF and OPEC, that was endorsed by energy ministers at the 12th International Energy Forum in Cancún, Mexico, held in March 2010 and subsequent G20 meetings. In addition to the 6 Joint Workshops held over the years, the Joint Technical Meeting represents the 9th event in this ongoing dialogue that considers the evolving inter-linkages between physical and financial energy markets, and new issues of common concern. These largely focused on:
To encourage open and informative discussions, the Workshop was held under the Chatham House Rule, with participation of key market participants on the financial and physical sides of the market.The next Joint Workshop is scheduled to take place in March 2020.
Moderated by Harry Tchilinguirian, BNP Paribas
Moderated by Dr Cornelia Meyer, MRL Corporation
Moderated by Dr Steven Knell, IHS Markit
Vienna, Austria
The IEF chaired an Inter Secretariat Meeting of JODI partner organisations among APEC, GECF, IEA, IEF, and OPEC in Vienna on 26-27 March 2018.
The meeting, hosted by OPEC at their Headquarters in Vienna, followed up on the progress on the various items per the 2015-2020 JODI Action Plan and the guidance from the JODI Heads & IEF Ministers.
The meeting further reviewed the following:
Partners reviewed the outline of the JODI Training Workshop for Sub Sahara Africa in April-May 2019, and took note of the plans to hold an APEC- JODI Workshop for Asia Region in Tokyo on June 2019, and the plan to hold a JODI User Seminar as part of the Japan Workshop for Tokyo based energy data users. Partners agreed to proceed on the organisations of a JODI Conference during 4th quarter of 2019 or early 2020.
Partners also took note of progress made on planning for a JODI Information Seminar on the sidelines of the GECF Summit in Equatorial Guinea on November 2019. The seminar is expected to benefit from large attendance of key policy makers who are attending the GECF Summit.
Energy research and data analytic company OilX presented to the JODI partners their business model which is characterised by the use of cutting-edge data sources such as satellite imaging combined with official data to provide real time data to energy analysts to support more accurate decision making. Furthermore, In the backdrop of increasing attention to digitalisation of the energy industry and policy implication, JODI partners and OilX discussed area of possible future cooperation.
The meeting concluded that JODI Partners will continue to enhance global energy data transparency through actions identified in the 5-Year JODI Action Plan to begin developing the new JODI Plan that is due to cover 2020-2025.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The Secretary General of the IEF, Dr. Sun Xiansheng welcomed SINOPEC delegates and members of industry, academia and the diplomatic community of Riyadh to an IEF Lecture on the "Report of China’s Energy and Petrochemicals Industry 2019" on 25 March 2019. The lecture was opened by Mr. Tao Wang, Deputy General Director of SINOPEC Corporate Culture Department and Mr. Li Xihong, Chief Representatives of SINOPEC in Saudi Arabia highlighting the significance of SINOPEC's operations to China, Saudi Arabia and the international community. China's "Belt and Road" Initiative and its benefit to the international energy sector was a prevalent theme throughout the presentations featuring the Review and Prospects for China’s Energy and Petrochemical Industry, China's Energy Transition and Development Path, China's Refinery Industry Outlook and Peak Oil Demand and New Horizons for the China's Petrochemical Industry.
Presenters included Ms. Jiao Yu, Vice President of SINOPEC Economics and Development Research Institute (EDRI); Dr. Zuoxian Luo, Deputy Director of Industrial Development Research Division and Senior Economist at SINOPEC EDRI; Mr. Xiaoming Ke, Deputy Chief Engineer and Director of Market Research and Mr. Xiaodong Lyn, Senior Analyst in SINOPEC’s Marketing and Research department.
The presentation began with a detailed analysis on the history, development and prospect for China’s petrochemical industry as a major player in the global energy supply chain. China’s increased refining capacity and natural gas production will allow it to further build its international network and deepen global partnerships. The demand for sustainable and advanced products in China is driven by urbanisation and rural vitalisation strategies, a rising middle class, coordinated regional development, technological advancements and the opening of China’s market offers greater potential for investment and encourages more sustainable development. China is expected to hit peak carbon emissions ahead of the rest of the world making sustainable development a top priority. Looking forward into 2019, China is forecasting a stable economic environment amidst a potentially volatile energy market with increased natural gas production despite lower oil and petrochemical demand.
The growth of non-fossil fuels in China’s energy mix and reduction of self-sufficiency rates means a greater dependence on foreign markets. For its part, China aims to lessen its demand of coal for power and embrace advancements in electrification and storage capacity. Crude oil demand is expected to increase due to decreased domestic production, lower oil prices and higher refining capacities. Given the growth of China's diverse import network, SINOPEC forecasts Chinese oil demand to peak in 2027 before giving way to a more diversified energy mix with the uptake of electrification and natural gas in the heavy transport sector. Natural gas demand has increased significantly particularly with the rise of LNG and technological advancements in renewable energy like solar and wind are expected to reduce costs and boost electricity generation.
A key point emphasised during the presentation was the increasing role of independent refineries and the potential to add more integrated and concentrated capacity to the market which would be targeted towards the export market. While oil demand for jet fuel and petrochemicals increases, moves toward greater efficiency, electrification and lower transport fuel consumption will also come to the forefront in China's energy mix. In 2018, China's sale of electric vehicles accounted for about 50 percent of global sales, making electric vehicles a dominant transportation option in the future.
The continued evolution of China’s petrochemical industry, especially considering the growth of ethylene and paraxylene capacity will be a trend to watch for the future. Although China may be the world’s largest market for petrochemicals, per capita consumption is rising slowly. Increasing urbanisation and evolving consumption habits create greater demand for plastics and polymer supply. China will still be required to import petrochemical products and have taken measures to reduce barriers for international trade. Further discussions focused on international investment, trade and efficiency measures to meet China’s growing potential in the industry.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum (IEF), Dr Sun Xiansheng and the President of the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC), Mr Adam Sieminski co-hosted the 5th IEF-KAPSARC Thought Leaders’ Roundtable on 28 February 2019 at the IEF Headquarters in Riyadh. The Roundtable was held under the Chatham House Rules. Dialogue informed by the IEF-KAPSARC Introductory Paper explored the role of efficiency and innovation in sustainable and competitive energy supply in four sessions focused on:
Panelists noted that innovation to make hydrocarbon supply chains more competitive and sustainable is the fastest and easiest way to reduce emissions and highlighted carbon efficiency, industry restructuring to unlock synergies that reduce cost and capture value as key levers. Discussions focused on the role of carbon capture use and storage and other technologies including new opportunities offered by digitalization in detection to reduce harmful emissions, the development of premium fuels and more efficient energy conversion processes, as well as the reemergence of hydrogen derived from hydrocarbons, renewable, nuclear, and waste materials in enabling successful transformations. Panelists also highlighted the importance of cohesive government-industry partnerships to formulate and advance consistent innovation agendas that mobilise investment, broaden public acceptance and create consensus.
The Fifth IEF-KAPSARC Thought Leaders' Roundtable follows up on the call by IEF Ministers to pool efforts in globally integrated frameworks to accelerate energy efficiency gains across the full energy sector spectrum and leverage the IEF Energy Efficiency Knowledge Sharing Framework in collaboration with relevant organisations and governance platforms globally. Outcomes will also help to inform the global energy dialogue that the IEF pursues including but not limited to the 8th Asian Ministerial Energy Roundtable hosted by the United Arab Emirates on 9-10 September 2019 in Abu Dhabi with India as a co-host alongside the 24th World Energy Congress, and the 17th International Energy Forum Ministerial hosted by China in 2020 with Morocco as the co-hosting country.
Moderated by Adam Sieminski, President, KAPSARC
Moderated by Steve Griffiths, Senior Vice President, Research and Development, Khalifa University
Moderated by Kamel Ben Naceur, Chief Executive Officer, NOMADIA Consulting, Former Minister of Energy, Tunisia
Moderated by Axel Pierru, Interim Vice President of Research, KAPSARC
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The Ninth IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks that the International Energy Forum (IEF) convenes yearly in collaboration with the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), took place on 27 February 2019 at the IEF Headquarters in Riyadh. Senior government and industry representatives from producing and consuming countries met alongside distinguished energy sector experts to discuss energy outlooks in a collective effort to enhance dialogue on global energy security, energy market transparency, and orderly energy transitions.
HE Khalid Al-Falih Minister of Energy, Industry, and Mineral Resources, Saudi Arabia made introductory remarks on behalf of the host country of the IEF, alongside HE Shaikh Mohammed bin Khalifa Al Khalifa, Minister of Oil of Bahrain and HE Manuel Quevedo, People’s Minister of Petroleum of Venezuela and President of the OPEC Conference.
Highlights
HE Khalid Al Falih - Interview
HE Shaikh Mohamed Al Khalifa - Interview
HE Dr Sun Xiansheng - Interview
Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo - Interview
HE Yury Sentyurin - Interview
Keisuke Sadamori - Interview
Anas Alhajji - Interview
Leila Benali - Interview
Jason Bordoff - Interview
Adnan Shihab Eldin - Interview
Sergio Garribba - Interview
Noé van Hulst - Interview
Samiha Khayyat - Interview
Robert McNally - Interview
Cornelia Meyer - Interview
Yasser Mufti - Interview
HE Manuel Quevedo - Interview
Adam Sieminski - Interview
The Symposium was opened by HE Dr Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General of the IEF, HE Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, Secretary General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and Mr Keisuke Sadamori, Director, Energy Markets and Security, representing the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency and welcomed more than 150 senior government and industry representatives from energy producing and consuming countries to the open platform the IEF provides. On behalf of the three organisations the Symposium this year welcomed HE Yury Sentyurin, Secretary General of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) and Mr Ian Mead Deputy Administrator of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (U.S. EIA) as special guests.
HE Dr Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General of the IEF, Mr Adam Sieminski, President of the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Centre (KAPSARC), and Dr Adnan Shihab-Eldin, Director General, Kuwait Foundation for the Advancement of Sciences (KFAS) moderated Symposium Sessions that were governed by the Chatham House Rule and focused on:
Moderated by Adam Seiminski, President, KAPSARC
Keynote Address by HE Yury Sentyurin, Secretery General, GECF
Moderated by Dr Adnan Shihab-Eldin, Director General, KFAS
Keynote Address by Ian Mead, Deputy Administrator, US EIA
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum (IEF), Dr Sun Xiansheng and the Ambassador of the European Union to Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, HE Michele Cervone d’Urso co-hosted the 3rd IEF-EU Energy Day on 26 February 2019 at the IEF Headquarters in Riyadh. Keynote addresses, invited from both the European Union (EU) and the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC), highlighted how both regions view new energy technology deployment opportunities over the long-term to set the scene for discussions in two sessions:
The 3rd IEF-EU Energy Day was held under the Chatham House Rules, against the background of recent announcement on renewable energy deployment in the Gulf and Europe. Participants benefited from the contributions of senior government and private sector panelists including from Austria, Italy, Saudi Arabia, and the UK as well as international organisations and multilateral development banks such as the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and the Arab Petroleum Investment Corporation (APICORP).
Discussants noted that visions evolve and are useful to inspire action and help establish a common direction of travel. New energy technology deployment and innovation, driven by international trade and investment and local manufacturing and research capabilities, as well as greater systems integration and flexibility, are central to meet growing demands regionally, and achieve shared goals globally. Dialogue on enabling policy mechanisms for secure and sustainable energy markets strengthens investor confidence creating new industrial growth and employment opportunities. The IEF is a useful platform for identifying areas of cooperation and acting upon these discussants found. They looked forward to strengthening their engagement and help deepen the dialogue, noting that while tremendous advances are being made there is a need to improve regional cooperation.
The outcomes of the 3rd IEF-EU Energy Day will help to inform the global energy dialogue including but not limited to the 8th Asian Ministerial Energy Roundtable hosted by the United Arab Emirates on 9-10 September 2019 in Abu Dhabi with India as a co-host taking place alongside the 24th World Energy Congress.
Keynote Address: The EU's Strategic Long-Term Vision for a Prosperous, Modern, Competitive and Climate Neutral Economy by 2050
Session Moderator: HE Jorg Ranau, Ambassador of Germany to Saudi Arabia
Session Moderator: HE Luca Ferrari, Ambassador of Italy to Saudi Arabia
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
IEF Secretary General, Dr Sun Xiansheng, welcomed the Undersecretary of the Ministry of Energy and Industry of the United Arab Emirates, Dr Matar Hamed Al Neyadi on 24 February 2019 to give a lecture on the realities of the energy landscape and the need for energy transition.
In his presentation Dr Matar Hamed Al Neyadi noted that energy consumption and production represent around two-thirds of the global greenhouse gas emissions and 81% of the global energy mix is still based on fossil fuels; the same percentage as 30 years ago. Energy transitions are needed to shape a more secure, sustainable, and affordable energy systems for all that respond to global energy-related challenges, while creating value for business and society, without compromising the balance between energy security, access and environmental sustainability, and inclusive economic development and growth.
Dr Matar Hamed Al Neyadi highlighted that hydrocarbons will continue to play a major role in energy matrices, but that renewable energy and efficiency measures could potentially achieve 90% of required carbon reductions according to the International Renewable Energy Agency. Providing further insights into the policies that the United Arab Emirates pursues to achieve a 50% clean energy mix by 2050 he referred to the deployment of renewable and nuclear energy technologies, energy efficiency and other demand side measures as key drivers.
Discussions focused on the progress made in establishing an Arab energy market and how to advance renewable technologies, through greater interconnections and the provision of flexibility and balancing services including storage, for successful energy transformations within the region. Discussants noted that investment in research and development and communication on the role of new and existing technologies is key to improve energy sector performance and better inform policy.
Tokyo, Japan
The International Energy Forum (IEF) took part in the first meeting of the G20 Energy Transitions Working Group (ETWG) held in parallel with the first Environment Senior Officials Meeting (ESOM) on 12-13 February 2019 in Tokyo. With the aim to accelerate the virtuous cycle of environmental protection and economic growth by innovation ETWG and ESOM meetings shall work in tandem towards the first joint energy and environment ministers meeting on Energy Transitions and Global Environment for Sustainable Growth convening on 15-16 June in Karuizawa under the G20 Presidency of Japan.
ETWG sessions focused on the possibilities of innovation in the energy sector, developments in energy demand and supply, and international oil and gas market security. The IEF was invited to present the achievements gained from cooperation between consumers and producers, activities contributing to energy security and energy transitions, as well as greater energy data transparency to improve secure and sustainable energy market functioning in the framework of the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) coordinated by the IEF with JODI Partner Organisations (APEC, Eurostat, IEA, GECF, OLADE, OPEC, UNSD).
Among the many initiatives ongoing to stabalise markets and advance orderly energy transitions the role of the IEF and JODI are key the chair noted in his summary. Discussions highlighted the need to advance investment and innovation in the energy sector and focussed on the role of new technologies to accelerate successful energy sector transformations. Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) and other new gas technologies, renewables integration, cleaner use of hydrocarbons, as well as infrastructure resilience are all important levers to improve market conditions and enable greater energy access and resource efficiency.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
IEF Secretary General, Dr Sun Xiansheng, welcomed Mr Masakazu Toyoda, CEO and Chairman of the Institute of Energy Economics (IEEJ), to the IEF Secretariat on 17th January to give a presentation on the IEEJ 2019 energy outlook and provide a perspective from Japan on the world energy future.
Mr Toyoda discussed trends in world energy supply and demand balances to 2050, on the basis of three IEEJ scenarios that compare results for maintaining current energy and environmental policies in place, to the introduction of powerful new policies and low carbon technologies, and efforts to keep global warming within the 2 degrees Celsius threshold at a reasonable cost to society.
In the reference scenario global primary demand will increase by 1.4 times in 2050 and over 60 percent of that demand growth will come from China, India and the ASEAN countries. While decoupling of economic expansion from energy demand growth proceeds and reduces demand growth rates in the OECD, the share of Asia in total primary energy demand will amount to almost 50%. Global electricity demand will double by 2050 accelerating at a faster pace in Asian economies than in the non Asia region growing from 21% to 30% and from 20% to 28% over the projection period respectively. Coal will play a smaller yet still vital role in Asia’s power generation while natural gas and renewable advance. From an Asian perspective, energy imports and reliance on overseas supplies will increase sharply when 80% of energy traded globally will be consumed in Asia.
Although the share of fossil fuel consumption decreases to around 69 % by 2050 in the advanced technology scenario, high dependency on fossil fuels will continue. Greater investment, technology advances, and efficiency gains will be required to ensure energy security and environmental sustainability. This will limit the energy import reliance of Asian economies and lead to a substantial reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050.
Mr Toyoda presented a model to ensure a balanced approach between mitigation, adaptation and costs to effectively mitigate the negative effects of climate change over long-term horizons. Focussing on the role of technologies, he highlighted advances in the production of carbon-free hydrogen by steam reforming of fossil fuels in combination with Carbon Capture and Storage alongside other technologies.
After discussing the risks and impacts of energy supply disruptions, and a moratorium on new coal fired power plants, Mr Toyoda concluded his presentation with the recommendation that more focus should be on placed on innovative technologies that can balance energy demand with environmental responsibility.
Beirut, Lebanon
The 17th Regional JODI Training Workshop targeting MENA countries was held in Beirut, Lebanon from 11-14 December 2018. Coordinated by the IEF, the workshop was held as part of Training on Energy Statistics hosted by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (UNESCWA). It was supported by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and other JODI Partners, including GECF, UNSD and the newest JODI Associate, OAPEC.
More than 30 delegates from 17 countries took part in the workshop which improved support of the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI), and raised awareness of the importance of data transparency while strengthening capacity of statistical agencies in the Middle East and North Africa.
The workshop was aimed at relevant energy data professionals in charge of energy data collection and dissemination at national administrations. Through presentations, discussions and practical exercises the regional statistical capacity was strengthened towards the shared aims of improved energy data transparency. For the first time in the history of JODI, the workshop was held in association with a training programme on building annual energy balances from comprehensive energy commodity statistics. The cooperative spirit of JODI among international organisations has enabled such joint programme, which provids a comprehensive picture of energy data compilation activities and their application for better decision.
Several of the JODI partner organisations sent experts to present on the merits and technicalities of JODI, highlighting the importance of cooperation in delivering upon ministers’ calls for global energy data transparency. The International Energy Agency presented the uses of JODI data including the importance of data granularity for data usability. Their perspective offered valuable insight into the needs of specific definitions and consistent submissions to build a more informed energy future.
Three officials for the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center provided welcome insights into the requirements of data users, namely; the need for free, regular, consistent, timely and transparent figures. KAPSARC’s presentation also exhibited some end uses of energy data including their inputs for policy initiatives, forecasts and investment models. OAPEC presentation exhibited the usability and highlights of OAPEC’s energy database.
The hands-on nature of the workshop’s training sessions gave delegates the opportunity to learn about JODI definitions in more detail. Specifically, the workshop reinforced an understanding of the techniques required to perform necessary data quality assessments which underpin the accurate and timely completion of JODI questionnaires. Delegates expressed particular interest in the experience-sharing elements of the programme.
The workshop was held as a part of the JODI 5-Year Action Plan toward 2020 to extend its reach to regions where there is room for improving data availability.
UNESCWA and the seven JODI partners will continue their work with MENA countries to follow-up on commitments and action items agreed in Beirut with the aim of capitalising on the experience gained through this successful workshop.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
IEF Secretary General, Dr Sun Xiansheng, welcomed Mr Ma Weidu to the IEF Secretariat on 29 November to give a presentation and lecture on Cultural Exchanges in History between China and Saudi Arabia on Ancient Works of Art with regards to the Belt and Road Initiative.
Mr Ma Weidu is a Chinese cultural scholar, writer, expert in Chinese art work who is also the founder of the Guanfu Museum. He hosts multiple popular TV and livestream programs where he shares his experiences in culture and antique collection with his audience. Currently he is a member of China Democratic National Construction Association; and a member of the board of directors of China Association for Friendship; goodwill ambassador for WildAid.
Mr Ma Weidu is committed to promoting Chinese culture to the world. He gave many lectures in schools, government organizations, companies and residential quarters, such as Party School of the Communist Party of China, National School of Administration, and Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and so on. He was invited to give lectures at the United Nations Headquarters in Geneva, Denver Art Museum in the USA, Confucius Institute in Turkey and so on.
Barcelona, Spain
Ministers, Heads of International Organisations, Chief Executive Officers and public and private sector officials gathered at the 6th IEF-IGU Ministerial Gas Forum hosted by the International Energy Forum (IEF) and the International Gas Union (IGU) on 21-22 November in Barcelona, Spain. Delegates debated how gas market technologies and innovation contribute to inclusive growth and a sustainable energy future to achieve globally shared goals faster together.
Taking a Mediterranean perspective on gas market trends between Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, Asia Oceania and the Americas, discussions at the 6th IEF-IGU Ministerial Gas Forum were structured in three plenary sessions on:
The biennial IEF-IGU Ministerial Gas Forum aims to facilitate a constructive conversation among governments and companies from both producing and consuming countries on the potentials and risks in gas markets, and share a clear vision on what is needed to stimulate inclusive growth and create a sustainable energy future.
Photo: H.E. Mustapha Guitouni, Minister of Energy, Algeria presents on Gas Demand Growth Beyond Power Generation
New conventional and unconventional resources, pipelines and LNG technologies diversify gas trade and investment flows among world regions, and create a more abundantly supplied and competitive gas market environment. The value gas supply chains offer to consumers has steadily improved through technology advancements, cost reductions and efficiency gains, as a consequence. In the current setting, natural gas market functioning depends more on technology, innovation and effective supply chain management, than extraction or off-take requirements. New gas technologies and innovations in gas market development are also coming into sharper focus as the need for clean air in major cities and greenhouse gas emission reductions grow. While implementation of the 2015 United Nations Paris Agreement and Agenda 2030 Sustainable Development Goals requires sustained and stepped-up efforts globally, policy choices and investment decisions take on a different character in distinct energy market settings.
Taking place in the context of these new gas market trends that create significant new market opportunities and enable enhanced ambition for climate resilient development on the eve of the 24th UNFCCC Conference of Parties in early December 2018, the 6th IEF-IGU Ministerial Gas Forum will build on the dialogue among government and industry stakeholders. This will support well informed decisions in light of greater interconnectivity and more stringent energy and climate policy requirements. 
Photo: Head table including IEF and IGU Secretary Generals, H.E. Dr Sun Xiansheng, H.E. Luis Bertran Rafecas, IGU President H.E. Joe Kang and Session Moderators, Mr Adam Sieminski, Dr Ivan Marten and Dr Kamel Ben Naceur
Delegates noted that the importance of natural gas in achieving inclusive sustainable growth and successful energy sector transformations is more widely acknowledged. They highlighted that natural gas is critical to help keep global warming within tolerable limits and improve air quality in major cities, noting that in comparison to other fossil fuels, natural produces less greenhouse gas emissions, negligible sulphur dioxide and airborne particulate matter and very low nitrogen dioxide emissions, while supporting the greater deployment of renewable energies and integration of other sources.
Delegates called on government and industry leaders to build confidence by overcoming obstacles to gas market trade and cross border interconnections and foster stable and predictable conditions to accelerate the deployment of gas sector technologies such as Carbon Capture Use and Storage (CCUS), Hydrogen, modern gas sector infrastructure, including flexible and small scale Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) and explore synergies.
Photo: Delegates participate in Roundtable discussion at the 6th IEF IGU Ministerial Gas Forum
Co-dependencies between importers and exporters are increasingly governed by flexible arrangements in a currently well supplied market. Yet to boost stable and resilient gas markets long-term investment must accelerate over the next decade. Predictable and transparent market conditions including reliable price signals and regulation are vital to gas market security and trade flows in a more diverse and rapidly changing environment.
Delegates of the IEF-IGU Ministerial Gas Forum noted the progress made by the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) Gas initiative since JODI-Gas was launched in Moscow on 2014. Delegates welcomed the enhanced visibility of JODI-Gas data that is now also available on different major data re-distribution agencies (Argus, Bloomberg, and Thomson Reuters). As LNG trade increases, delegates recognised the need for improved granularity of LNG data available in the marketplace and called on JODI Partner Organisations to help achieve this goal.
The importance of natural gas in achieving sustainability and successful energy sector transformations is now more widely acknowledged. Natural gas supports the greater deployment of renewable energies and in comparison to other fossil fuels produces much less greenhouse gas emissions, and negligible sulphur dioxide and airborne particulate matter and very low nitrogen dioxide emissions, critical to air quality. The challenge for the future is how energy systems will evolve to meet greenhouse gas emission, and more stringent fuel quality standards while at the same time respond to growing demand for affordable access to reliable energy services. Governments and industry are sharpening focus on the technologies and innovations needed to capitalize on the environmental benefits gas offers for inclusive growth towards sustainable futures.
Moderator: Adam Sieminski, President, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Centre (KAPSARC)
In 2017, global gas demand grew by almost 4% due to strong demand growth in Asia and Europe. While the outlook for gas is bright in view of its abundance, New infrastructure developments in Europe from the Baltic to the Mediterranean, rising North American LNG exports and Asian gas demand growth illustrate both the opportunities and hurdles that remain for the world to fully capitalise on the benefits that readily available gas resources and new and innovative technologies bring. The share of gas in the energy mix has remained largely unchanged until very recently as a consequence. In order to encourage the necessary investments in infrastructure and trade flows, there is a need to focus on pricing, cost, and acceptance issues to realise new growth potentials.
Producers and consumers cooperate to strengthen security of gas supply on international markets and benefit from greater resource availability and new market opportunities. This involves investment in gas infrastructure, ranging from pipeline systems, on land LNG terminals and floating facilities, cross-border and inland interconnections, as well as storage. Co-dependencies between importers and exporters are increasingly governed by flexible arrangements in the current well supplied market. Yet to boost resilient and healthy growth in Asia, or respond to the rising import dependencies in Europe, long-term investment must accelerate over the next decade. Predictable and transparent market mechanisms including reliable price signals and regulation will be required to enhance gas market security in a more diverse and rapidly changing environment.
Moderator: Dr Kamel Ben Naceur, Chief Economist, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC)
Details of the previous IEF-IGU Ministerial Gas Forums can be found below.
Kiev, Ukraine
Dr. Sun Xiansheng inaugurated the JODI Information Seminar and Energy Data Exhibition held as part of the UNECE Ninth International Forum on Energy for Sustainable Development in Kiev, Ukraine on 15 November 2018. The event was inaugurated along with Mr. Scott Foster, Director, Sustainable Energy Division, UNECE and a representative from the Ministry of Energy and Coal Industry, Ukraine. JODI Partners including the GECF, IEA, OPEC, & UNSD and OAPEC, JODI’s newest member, attended the event alongside notable International organisations such as Energy Community and UN-ESCAP.
Government officials and industry experts engaged in an interactive session demonstrating JODI’s importance to sustainable development and energy transition. The Partners highlighted JODI’s collaborative framework among national administrations, JODI partners and data users as the key feature that makes JODI possible. Dr Sun emphasized the need for reliable data and reaffirmed IEF’s commitment to enhance global energy data transparency under the JODI framework, while Fuad AlZayer, Global Coordinator of Energy Data Transparency – JODI, showcased the history of JODI since its inception in 2000 and the different millstones.
Panelists viewed data transparency as paramount to a smooth energy transition and stronger collective efforts towards achieving sustainable development goals, including the UN Sustainable Development Goals: SDG7 - “Ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all”.
The event is in line with JODI 5-Year Action Plan which calls for “Raising awareness of the JODI platform and database and identifying and engaging champions for JODI.” By putting the JODI 5-Year Action Plan into practice, JODI Partners meet with stakeholders around the world to promote the need for:
Delegates from the JODI Partners organisations, International Organisations and Seminar attendees also deliberated on the way forward, how to overcome challenges in compiling JODI World Databases and communicate the benefit of JODI to national administrations.
St. Petersburg, Russia
Mr. Aurangzeb Qureshi represented the International Energy Forum at the XI International Scientific Conference – ENERGETIKA XXI: economy, policy, ecology hosted by the St. Petersburg State University of Economics on 14-16 November 2018 in St. Petersburg, Russia. The conference was founded in 2007 as an initiative of Gazprom to address recent developments in the energy sector on a global basis and with a special focus on Russia. Leading energy experts from government, academia and industry participated over three days through presentation and dialogue. This year’s theme was entitled: ‘’The Need for Energy Dialogue in a Fast Changing Environment’’
Presentations focused on topics of decarbonization and emissions reduction along with the role of hydrogen in the energy transition. Energy developments from a macro-level viewpoint from the role of natural gas to the evolving nature of energy security and sustainable energy transition were discussed at length through interactive presentations and intelligent questions and answer sessions. The pace of the energy transition was a relevant and timely discussion point that contributed to insightful dialogue. Presentations on topics involving EU-Russia dynamics, the role of infrastructure and climate and decarbonization were held concurrently in parallel work streams.
The conference also held interactive discussion under Chatham House Rule on the possibility of an all-electric and renewable world and the new geopolitics of energy featuring speakers from academia, research organizations and governmental departments. The role of electrification was put forward given falling costs and exponential growth of renewable technology. However, the concentration of raw materials and possibility of a technology plateau provides a role for hydrogen and other fuels as a possible complement to renewables. From a geopolitical perspective, discussants examined the intersection of geopolitics and energy and how energy influences the foreign policies of the U.S., Russia and the European Union.
Key Links
Paris, France
The 4th IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Gas and Coal Market Outlooks was held at IEA Headquarters in Paris on 6 November, bringing together more than 100 participants, including experts, government officials, business leaders and representatives from the gas and coal industries.
Senior experts from the three hosting organisations along with the GECF and IGU discussed the future of the natural gas and coal market from a short-medium and long-term perspective. Meanwhile, industry experts from Snam S.p.A, Shell and Cheniere Energy presented on natural gas infrastructure capacity, unlocking investment in natural gas and the rise of LNG. From a coal perspective, Dr Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General of the IEF moderated an important discussion on coal outlooks and its ongoing evolution given the growing role of natural gas and renewables.
The last session centred on the competition between natural gas and coal and implications such a dynamic has on long-term sustainability. Discussion revolved around sustainability in gas and coal supply chains, clean technologies and energy transitions.
The Symposium on Gas and Coal Markets Outlooks is jointly organised by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Energy Forum (IEF) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), in accordance with the outcomes of the 12th IEF Ministerial International Energy Forum (Cancun, 2010) and the G20 Leaders’ Summit (Cannes, 2011) that called for “continued annual dialogue between producers and consumers on short-, medium- and long-term outlooks and forecasts for oil, gas and coal.”
Paris, France
The IEF chaired an Inter Secretariat Meeting of JODI partner organisations among APEC, Eurostat, GECF, IEA, IEF, OLADE and OPEC in Paris on 04-05 October 2018.
The meeting, hosted by The IEA at their Headquarters in Paris, focused on following up on the guidance received from the JODI Heads and IEF Ministers during the JODI Heads IEF16 Ministerial held in India on April 2018 and reaffirmed action plans and activities for 2019.
The meeting further reviewed following progress and items:
Partners agreed to hold a next JODI Conference during second half of 2019 and reviewed a plan to hold a JODI Training Workshop for MENA Region in cooperation with UN-ESCWA in December 2018. Partners also agreed to work with OPEC Fund International Development and AFREC to plan a follow-up JODI Training Workshop for Sub Sahara Africa during first half of 2019. In the meantime, plans for training workshops for Latin America and Asia-Pacific region during 2019 are underway.
Partners also took notes on progress made on planning for an upcoming JODI User Information Seminar during 9th International Forum on Energy for Sustainable Development, 15 November 2018 in Ukraine. The event is held under framework of collaboration among United Nation Economic Commissions the seminar is expected to benefit from large attendance of key policy makers to the Forum.
Energy research and data analytic company Kayrros presented JODI partners their business model charactarised by their application of big data and digital media to their analysis. In the backdrop of increasing attention to digitalisation of the energy industry and policy implication, JODI partners and Kayrros discussed area of possible future cooperation.
The meeting concluded that JODI partners continues to enhance global energy data transparency through actions identified in the 5-Year JODI Action Plan.
Marrakech City, Morocco
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum, Dr Sun Xiansheng, participated in the 11th Arab Energy Conference hosted by Morocco under the high patronage of H.M. King Mohammed VI under the theme Energy and Arab Cooperation on 1-4 October in Marrakech, Morocco. The 11th Arab Energy Conference was opened by the conference chairman HE Aziz Rabbah, Minister of Energy, Mines and Sustainable Development, Morocco and HE Dr. Ahmed Aboul Gheit, Secretary General, the League of Arab States on behalf of the Sponsoring Organizations of the Conference that also involved the Organisation of the Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC), the Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development, and the Arab Industrial Development and Mining Organization.
The IEF Secretary General participated in both the first and second high-level ministerial sessions discussing the Transformations in Global Oil and Gas Markets and their Implications for Arab Oil Exporters, and Energy Security as a Global Partnership respectively. Both sessions were informed by background papers that HE Abbas Ali Al-Naqi, Secretary General of OAPEC, invited from Dr. Bassam Fattouh, Director, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, and the International Energy Forum.
The IEF Dialogue Insight Paper on Energy Security as a Global Partnership highlighted that:
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum, Dr Sun Xiansheng hosted H.E. Luca Ferrari, Ambassador of Italy to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, to deliver a lecture on the impact of the American sanctions on Iran and the energy industry at the IEF on 12 September 2018.
Among the Ambassadors and dignitaries attending, Dr Sun was pleased to welcome H.E. Michele Cervone D’Urso, Ambassador of the European Union Delegation to Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar, who kindly agreed to introduce and moderate the session.
The lecture was conducted under the Chatham House Rule and was attended by high ranking government and industry representatives, as well as senior experts from academia and advisory services.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum, Dr Sun Xiansheng hosted the President of the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, Mr Adam Sieminski, to present on the World Energy Outlook at the IEF on the 9th of September 2018.
Mr. Sieminski started off by highlighting KAPSARC’s mission to advance the understanding of energy challenges and opportunities, through unbiased, independent, and high-calibre research for the benefit of society. Mr Sieminski emphasized the enduring value of the IEF in providing a unique and neutral platform to strengthen market stability through data-driven dialogue on market, policy, and technology evolutions. The exchange of views on energy security, industry transformations, and reserve mechanisms fosters healthy energy markets for both producers and consumers and the effective achievement of shared goals they pursue together. He looked forward to further strengthen collaboration and bringing the growing capabilities of KAPSARC to bear on the IEF platform.
Mr Sieminski shared his perspective on global energy demand and pathways to its evolution. He observed that world energy demand will continue to expand on account of average annual increases in economic growth to 2040. These are forecasted to amount to 4.1% and 1.7% for the non-OECD and OECD regions respectively by the International Energy Outlook the U.S. Energy Information Administration released this summer. Forecasts show that petroleum, liquids and natural gas dominate growth, alongside renewables that will continue to grow at a steady rate and amount to 17% of global energy consumption by 2040. Coal demand will plateau after 2020 and nuclear shows modest growth comprising 21% and 5% of the global energy mix each in 2040. Electrification of energy demand will account for 40% of growth; a new regional pattern that China and India lead with other non-OECD countries.
Against the background of growing uncertainties reflected in the wide range of oil demand forecast across scenario’s, Mr Sieminski underlined that the need for oil will remain robust for decades. Large scale investment in new conventional production is essential to compensate for natural decline rates and maintain secure supplies also when tight oil plateaus and non-OPEC production slows in the 2020s. Though advances in new vehicle technologies command attention, by 2040 and beyond transportation will still be driven by the internal combustion engine. Oil demand growth in the industry and petrochemicals sector remains steady over the forecast period.
With reference to KAPSARC’s research on inventory assessments, Mr Sieminski noted that energy security concepts have evolved from concerns with physical availability to price volatility. Net flows and inventory levels, including 5-year average measurements are insufficient indicators of market balance. As the function of inventories and idle capacity is changing in the new market environment the velocity of oil will matter more to market stability in future.
Mr Sieminski ended his presentation with a reference to KAPSARC’s work on the positive contribution to the global economy of OPEC’s spare capacity. Published earlier this year in the peer-reviewed Energy Journal, the paper provided an estimate of the $170-$200 billion annual value to the world of OPEC’s willingness (especially in Saudi Arabia) to temper volatility in oil prices by using spare capacity to, occasionally, add or remove oil from markets.
Beijing, China
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum (IEF) Dr Sun Xiansheng and the President of the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development (RIPED) Dr Zhao Wenzhi welcomed senior representatives from the international energy industry, and high-ranking government representatives of IEF member countries at the 2nd Industry Advisory Committee that IEF and RIPED co-hosted at the Institute’s Science and Technology Centre in Beijing China on 31 July 2018.
Gathered under the theme “Energy Transformations and Oil and Gas Strategies” participants explored how new technology, innovation and policy evolve and what promise oil and gas strategies and market fundamentals hold for energy market stability and orderly transitions in China and the world.
The role of technology is pivotal to global energy security and network stability. Technology enhances rational development of natural resources, efficiency gains in energy supply chains and enables synergies among flows in industrial clusters to enhance productivity. This enables viable transformations for inclusive growth towards healthy and sustainable futures that rely on both hydrocarbon and renewable sources to work in concert with industry and government stakeholders in ever more interconnected energy markets.
Discussions at the 2nd Industry Advisory Committee Workshop took place in two panel sessions moderated by Amos Hochstein, Senior Vice President, Marketing, Tellurian and Dr Kamel Ben Naceur, Chief Economist, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, inviting perspectives from a wide selection of senior government and industry panelists to deepen understanding and strengthen confidence in global energy market functioning.
Discussions were governed by the Chatham House rule, presentations are retrievable below.
Photo: Workshop attendees group photo.
Moderated by Amos Hochstein, Senior Vice President, Marketing, Tellurian
Photo: Frank Fannon, Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of Energy Resources (ENR), U.S. Department of State addresses Panel Session I.
Moderated by Dr Kamel Ben Naceur, Chief Economist, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC)
Photo: Panel Session II speakers.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum, Dr Sun Xiansheng and the President of the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Centre, Mr Adam Sieminski jointly hosted Dr Kenneth B Medlock III, Senior Director of the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute to present on the prospects for US oil and gas exports at the IEF on 18 July 2018.
US oil and gas exports have grown substantially and are making landfall in a growing number of countries. This is influencing current market dynamics and will continue to reshape global oil and gas trade. Following the oil market downturn in late 2014, unconventional US oil and gas production has become more resilient due to cost reductions and operator innovation. By 2017, US crude oil and petroleum products exports reached 6.3 million barrels per day while natural gas exports reached 8.7 billion cubic feet per day. Infrastructure and environmental considerations, however, present a potential, albeit temporary, drag on US exports’ stellar rise. Infrastructure constraints are limiting evacuation options and natural gas flaring exemptions for crude oil-directed developments are likely to lapse. The combined effect will be that some production may be shut in or take longer to materialise.
US oil production increased by over 5.5 mb/d over the past decade, covering for production declines that resulted from above-ground constraints elsewhere. Although shale production dipped in 2015, it has recovered since due to productivity improvements and higher prices. Nevertheless, both near-term global market balance and US exports will depend largely on global demand. US exports will be driven by profitability because development is driven by commercial considerations; US oil and gas are not an overt policy vector. Hence, international trade opportunities and the ability to overcome hurdles related to cost and market access through innovation and new infrastructure will drive exports in the long term. This will contribute to an ongoing transformation of global oil and gas trade, along with frontier supplies in the Western Hemisphere – including in several countries ranging from Canada to Argentina.
US shale has made global supply more price responsive. But, while shale can temper long term price movement it remains governed by market fundamentals. So, US shale will lend to greater long term price stability, but the role of inventory and spare capacity as a stabilizing force for short term disturbances in the global market is not diminished. Moreover, given that oil and gas demand will be largely driven by non-OECD markets for the next couple of decades, the importance of traditional sources of supply remains significant.
