Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Hosted by the Government of Malaysia under the theme "Towards Recovery and Shared Prosperity: Natural Gas Opportunities for a Sustainable World" the 7th IEF-IGU Ministerial Gas Forum will take place on 3 December 2020 from Kuala Lumpur.
His Excellency Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, Prime Minister of Malaysia will inaugurate the Ministerial followed by welcome and opening statements by His Excellency Dato' Sri Mustapa bin Mohamed, Minister in the Prime Minister's Department (Economy), Malaysia, and Mr. Tengku Muhammad Taufik, President & Group CEO, PETRONAS on behalf of the host country.
With a view to strengthening existing partnerships and forging new ones in the post-pandemic environment, the two regional sessions of the 7th IEF-IGU Ministerial Gas Forum will focus dialogue among Ministers and industry leaders on:
The International Energy Forum (IEF) and the International Gas Union (IGU) have set up this important virtual platform for dialogue between Ministers, CEOs and subject matter experts in close collaboration with the Economic Planning Unit, Prime Minister’s Department of Malaysia.
The 7th IEF-IGU Ministerial Gas Forum will focus on relevant issues revolving around the role of natural gas in emerging markets, where Asia is the main driver of demand. Dialogue among ministers and industry leaders will help to identify and advance energy policies and business strategies that support the dynamic evolution of global gas markets, explore new natural gas market prospects, enable a sustainable future, and achieve shared prosperity in the aftermath of COVID-19.
Roundtable sessions will be held under Chatham House Rules. Other relevant information regarding the Forum will be made available in due course.
For more information, please see the enclosed agenda below.
Moscow, Russian Federation
Joseph McMonigle, Secretary General of the International Energy Forum was invited as a special guest to the BRICS Energy Research Cooperation Platform that the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation hosted on a semi-virtual platform on 15 October 2020 from Moscow. Leading experts from Brazil, Russia, India, and China, and representatives of key international energy organisations discussed the findings of the BRICS Energy Report shortly in advance of the 12th BRICS Leaders’ Summit taking place on 17 November 2020 in Saint Petersburg dedicated to strengthen partnerships on global stability, shared security, and innovative growth under the BRICS chairmanship of Russia.
In his keynote address Mr Joseph McMonigle highlighted the important role that Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa play as key IEF producers and consumers in global energy security alongside other leading international energy organisations. “Today global oil markets find their way towards new balances by the guardrails consuming and producing countries set in the framework of the 2016 Declaration of Cooperation among OPEC and OPEC-plus members, and through the closer collaboration between Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa also as IEF and G20 member countries. The silver lining of the COVID-19 pandemic is that producers and consumers have strengthened dialogue and collaboration and sharpened focus on forward looking energy agendas to achieve shared aspirations. Investments in high-return infrastructure projects by major economies that help the world achieve universal access to affordable, clean, and reliable energy services, and lower greenhouse gas emissions can further those objectives” he said.
The BRICS countries account for more than a third of global energy demand and supply today. Their share in global energy markets will continue to rise and the decisions of policy makers and industry leaders of BRICS economies is of growing significance to the future of world energy markets.
International travel is the essential ingredient to ensuring the aviation, tourism, and energy industries recover from the pandemic, but the revival in global travel has been weaker than expected and could signal a slower return to economic vitality, according to an expert roundtable hosted by the International Energy Forum (IEF).
The IEF virtual roundtable – Focus on the Energy, Aviation, Tourism Nexus on 8 October 2020 – explored the impact of COVID-19 on these closely related industries, and how the recovery of these sectors could make the largest contribution to restoring economic growth and employment globally.
"This is the most challenging period tourism has faced in its history," says Zurab Pololikashvili, Secretary General of the United Nations World Tourism Organization. "The surest way of bringing confidence back is to get everyone working together. This means governments working together and more cooperation between the public and private sectors than ever before."
These sectors are particularly interdependent. What influences tourism naturally touches aviation and travel, which in turn has implications for the energy sector. In fact, all three industries have been increasingly converging as autonomous but coupled peers, sharing much the same eco-system during the COVID-19 pandemic.
"Energy, aviation, and tourism have been among the hardest hit industries, but their recovery stands to make the largest contribution to reestablish economic growth," says Joseph McMonigle, Secretary General of the IEF. "Their fates are inextricably entwined as we consider our best way forward."
Even working together across industries, the facts of the pandemic and its aftershocks may delay the revival of the tourism industry and the resulting resurgence of the aviation and energy industries. The coronavirus pandemic has already resulted in five times the loss in international tourism receipts than the shortfalls that stemmed from the 2009 global economic crisis.
"I am presupposing we will not have a vaccine to save next year (2021)," said His Excellency Harry Theoharis, Minister of Tourism for Greece. "For 2021, we should be working the assumption that the vaccine will be operable and make a difference sometime in the year, but it will not be soon enough to save the year in its entirety. The effects of the crisis will be felt for the next three to five years."
The numbers reflect that assessment. The tourism sector is expected to see losses of 1 trillion in US dollars and 100 million jobs worldwide. If tourism's revival is slowed, as it looks like it will be, the global GDP could decline between 1.5 and 2.8 percent. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) says lost revenues to airlines through August was $250 billion and likely will approach $500 billion by the end of 2020. In the aviation and energy sectors, job losses are likely to surpass half a million. These numbers are dwarfed by the more than 100 million jobs threatened in tourism. Restrictions on travel keep the sector from sharing prosperity across world regions and limit options for an inclusive recovery.
Steve Sear, President of Delta Airlines International, said the airline industry has been trying to rebuild public confidence in the safety of air travel as the virus has receded in various countries. Delta alone has already implemented 200 major safety initiatives, including creating a new position—the vice president of global cleanliness.
"It's going to be a multi-year process of recovery," said Mr. Sear. "It will be choppy and slow. Everybody is working to put safety protocols in place to make sure the entire journey is going to be safe, and to enable us to get our customers confident about traveling again."
Righting the weakened tourism industry comes first, said Minister Theoharis. To accelerate the revival, countries must work to make the recovery safe and lasting. To do so, he recommends a common strategy for reopening: removing country travel bans and quarantines; stimulating tourism demand on a government-by-government level; investing further in research into a vaccine; and boosting spending for sustainable tourism projects to build new customers for the future.
"We are lucky in one sense," said Minister Theoharis. "The tourism industry is a product that cannot be transferred to the virtual world."
Secretary General Pololikashvili seconded the notion that how countries respond to COVID-19 will be key to the successful transition out of the pandemic for the tourism economy. Travel restrictions by individual countries undermine the sense of recovery worldwide. He noted that the global tourism crisis also opens up additional avenues for the aviation, tourism, and energy industries to recover in a sustainable fashion.
For the airline industry, the road ahead won't be easy. The focus will be on risk mitigation and rebuilding the confidence of consumers, Mr. Sear said. That includes applying social distancing to the process by keeping middle seats open; using electrostatic spraying and other cleaning protocols to increase safety; requiring temperature checks and multiple test options for employees; and installing hospital-style hepa filers in cabin air systems. None of the actions are particularly profitable, he added.
"We're a customer- and people-oriented business that won't change," said Mr. Sear. "We're going to be a little bit smaller, but we're going to make sure we get through this. Thinking long term, we're pretty bullish, but thinking short term, it's brutal. We just have to be persistent."
The challenges ahead for the energy industry are significant. While demand is the short term immediate obstacle to a full recovery for oil markets, the most worrisome impact is on supply, according to Ann-Louise Hittle, Vice President, Oils Research at Wood Mackenzie.
Demand comes back in particular for middle distillates, gasoline, and petrochemical feed stocks. It is expected to be up about 5 million barrels a day, compared to the 9 million drop this year, but that's still not near 2019 levels.
"Demand going forward lags our forecast for total demand," Ms. Hittle says. "It catches up though in 2030 [in terms of] global demand growth to where we were before the pandemic. It's still globally on target, but we see it slowing the next decade."
Ms. Hittle said global supply, however, takes far longer to return to normal. OPEC-plus producers have cut supply production in response to the sharp drop in demand caused by the pandemic. But supply has been further impacted by the entire upstream sector cutting investments and deferring project expansions. As a result, global supply likely won't get back to pre-COVID-19 levels until 2035 or 2040, she said.
On the demand side, Ms. Hittle sees a strong recovery in China. Due to the pandemic, oil demand dropped by 400,000 barrels a day this year. But next year, she and other analysts expect to see demand rebound by 1.3 million barrels a day, although the driver of that will be domestic travel. Experts don't expect to see China go back to 2019 levels until 2023, said Ms. Hittle.
"I think in the short term what we're trying to grapple with is the second wave of COVID-19 impacts this winter," said Joanne Shore, President of Downstream Petroleum Markets in the U.S. "That is a near-term uncertainty for all fuels but jet fuel in particular."
Ms. Shore noted that refiners faced some interesting challenges with the unprecedented drop in demand. Demand dropped very quickly, and the product mix changed. As a result, there was a large drop in refinery utilization. The reduction in crude runs reduced everything going through the refinery. There was a problem in terms of product mix, she noted.
"As demand began to shift, the yields at the refineries began to shift, too," said Ms. Shore. "Those are very large yield shifts for a refining system to go through. The refining [industry] like the airline industry and many other industries during this period has been rationalizing more quickly than they would have been doing in the past. We are seeing some changes there. They did the same things that other industries did. They cut back on capital expenditures and controlled operating expenses."
These forecasts reflect IEF's own assessments as well. The IEF believes jet fuel demand could recover by 25 percent—an increase of about 2 million barrels a day—but it will depend on a vaccine being distributed in early 2021, the widespread adoption of new tourism policy guidelines and regulations recommended by the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD); and an ongoing commitment by the airlines to lead on safety measures.
"There is still a great deal unknown about the pandemic and its impacts. We don't have a good handle on the demand part of this," said Secretary General McMonigle. "I do think there could be pent up demand. I am worried that when the demand comes back, it may be swift. For oil markets, it would be hard to catch up and it could create some price issues in the next couple years."
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum (IEF), Joseph McMonigle and the President of King Abdullah Petroleum Study and Research Center (KAPSARC), Adam Sieminski, hosted a joint virtual meeting to discuss open and transparent energy data ecosystems, policy scenario models and tools on 5 October 2020. The webinar focused on the collaborative efforts by the IEF and KAPSARC to enhance national and regional energy data transparency and highlighted the compilation of the energy balance of Saudi Arabia as a case study.
The event gathered some 150 registered attendees from 70 institutions globally with participation by panelists from Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) Partners including the International Energy Agency (IEA), the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD) as well as the United Nation Economic and Social Commission for West Asia (UN ESCWA) to solidify international cooperation on improving energy data availability and comparability.
Secretary General McMonigle underscored the importance of cooperation with national and regional energy knowledge centers such as KAPSARC to validate consistency across various official data sources that inform JODI data sets. President Sieminski welcomed the collaboration with the IEF as the coordinator of the JODI Initiative to improve consistency and comparability of national data reporting methodologies.
The IEA highlighted the agency’s comprehensive data gathering and compilation activities including in the context of JODI to inform market analysis. The UNSD and UNESCWA presented on advances made by international and national stakeholders to harmonise energy data compilation methods and definitions.
Participants stressed that enhanced cooperation among national, regional, and international stakeholders is needed. Dialogue on options to harmonise energy data definitions and compilation methodologies based on JODI, International Recommendation for Energy Statistics (IRES), and the Energy Statistics Compilers Manual (ESCM) will make energy data more readily available and comparable across energy sectors and national boundaries, leading to better-informed policy and investment decisions that will benefit all energy market stakeholders.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Hosted by the G20 Presidency of Saudi Arabia dedicated to Realizing Opportunities of the 21st Century for All, the Secretary General of the International Forum (IEF), Joseph McMonigle joined Energy Ministers of G20 nations and invited countries, alongside Heads of International Organisations at the G20 Energy Ministers Meeting that convened virtually under the Chairmanship of HRH Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman bin Abdulaziz on 27 and 28 September 2020 to address the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and strengthen the global energy sector.
In their communiqué, G20 Ministers reaffirmed their commitment to ensure that the energy sector continues to make a full, effective contribution to overcoming COVID-19 and powering the subsequent global recovery. With the support of the IEF and other relevant international and regional organisations, G20 Ministers agreed among others to:
Building on the longstanding partnership among our seventy member countries, the IEF stands ready to take forward the vibrant dialogue and important work of the G20 Energy Ministers Meeting, Secretary General McMonigle noted in his keynote remarks to the virtual meeting.
The mission of the IEF to strengthen global energy security, market transparency, and facilitate orderly transitions remains closely linked to the core objectives of the G20 to achieve global economic stability, sustainable and inclusive growth, and to modernise international governance systems. Dialogue and cooperation agendas on the IEF and G20 platforms rely on each other to reduce risks and prevent global economic and energy market crises.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
H.E. Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei, Minister of Energy and Infrastructure of the United Arab Emirates shared his views on the current state of energy markets at the Global Energy Risk Forum Series that the International Energy Forum (IEF) and the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) convened on 15 September 2020.
Dialogue at the virtual IEF-GARP Global Energy Risk Forum, the second in a four-part series, focused on transformative trends in energy supply and demand and how recovery and stimulus measures to overcome the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the world economy will affect energy sector development. In the run-up to the inaugural IEF-GARP Global Energy Risk Forum on Sustainability in an Evolving Risk Environment that is currently scheduled to take place on 26 May 2021 in Vienna, Austria, forthcoming virtual IEF-GARP Global Energy Risk Forum sessions will focus on:
The Secretary General of the IEF, Joe McMonigle and Richard Apostolik, President and CEO of GARP, provided opening remarks and welcomed H.E. Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei and invited guests. Novera Khan, Chief Risk Officer, Uniper, set the scene and moderated panelists contributions from Sopna Sury, Director, Strategy and Regulatory Affairs, RWE Renewables, Nobuo Tanaka, Special Advisor, Sasakawa Peace Foundation and Peter Tertzakian, Deputy Director, ARC Energy Research Institute and Managing Director, ARC Financial Corp. Discussions touched on several topics including:
The Chairman of the IEF-GARP Global Energy Risk Forum Steering Committee, Vincent Kaminski, Professor of Practice of Energy Management at Rice University delivered concluding remarks and high-lighted the importance of ongoing dialogue on the IEF platform in collaboration with partner organisations. The third virtual IEF-GARP Global Energy Risk Forum on Transformative Trends in Energy Supply and Demand is scheduled to take place in November 2020.
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum, Joseph McMonigle, participated in the Asian Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC) Annual Conference and Advisory Board Meeting and Joint Symposium along with the Institute of Energy Economics (IEEJ) that convened virtually on 11 September 2020 in Tokyo, Japan. This year’s conference centered on various energy topics including energy security, climate change, energy investment, and data analysis.
Mr McMonigle participated in Session Two of the Energy Security Workshop where he presented on the importance of dialogue and collaboration in maintaining energy security. The advent of COVID-19 has radically transformed supply-demand fundamentals and increased energy market volatility. This makes the role of the global energy dialogue even more significant to drive energy markets forward.
While total energy investment fell by 20 percent in 2020, Non-OPEC exploration and production investment has seen the brunt of the decline at 43 percent compared to 2019. Non-OPEC shale production is also under pressure due to lower demand and calls for return on capital invested. Employment layoffs in the oil and gas sector, particularly shale and offshore non-OPEC producers, further exacerbate uncertainty and the ability for the energy sector to attract the talent needed to move forward.
In the short-term, timely OPEC-plus production adjustments along with greater transparency on stock data will be the keys towards ensuring energy market stability. However, the return of pent up demand in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic combined with a lack of investment may lead to a rapid tightening market in the medium-term. Sharpening producer-consumer dialogue on the investment crisis will be crucial to secure market stability in the medium-term.
Mr McMonigle also emphasised the need to accelerate full and comprehensive energy data submissions on inventory levels and stock changes. The IEF will be working with JODI partners to accelerate data submissions and enhance market transparency by leveraging digital solutions as well. At the same time, clean technologies and renewables play an increasing role in energy sector transformations and will benefit from additional government support in green recovery efforts. Other economic approaches include greater focus on market reforms and circular concepts to achieve both climate and energy access goals. Greater collaboration amongst producer-consumer countries, international organisations, and industry stakeholders, will be necessary in a rapidly changing risk environment.
The annual APERC conference is attended by delegates from participating APEC economies, as well as distinguished expert speakers. The conference provides an opportunity for participants to exchange views and share research findings on the energy policy challenges facing the APEC region.
London, United Kingdom
Joseph McMonigle, Secretary General of the International Energy Forum, delivered a keynote address at the Gastech Virtual Summit on 8 September highlighting the importance of producer-consumer collaboration in expediting natural gas market recovery. This year’s agenda explored issues impacting the future of the industry, energy security, affordability, and sustainability, the prospects for demand and investment recovery, and changes to supply in a post COVID-19 world.
Mr McMonigle emphasized that the continued spread of COVID-19 has had an unprecedented impact on the global economy and the energy market. Collaboration between producers and consumers is the remedy needed to accelerate natural gas market recovery and seize opportunities that affordable, readily accessible, and clean natural gas technologies offer for a swift return to sustainable economic growth. A key role will be played by natural gas technologies and busines models that capitilise on gas market abundance. These can accelerate fuel-switching and facilitate energy systems integration with nuclear, renewables, green gas, hydrogen, and other solutions to achieve net-zero emissions that green growth and circular concepts aim for.
The exceptional energy market circumstances created by the COVID-19 pandemic enable governments to make progress in enhancing natural gas market transparency for which policy support remains essential. Mr McMonigle highlighted that the IEF will continue to push for more complete and faster energy market data submission, including through closer cooperation with the G20 and the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) that the IEF co-ordinates with JODI Partner Organisations.
The Gastech Virtual Summit is a strategic and technical conference that featured more than 200 speakers in 89 conference sessions and presentations. Over 1500 delegates participated on the platform that included Ministers, CEOs, and leaders of international organisations.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
H.E. Sheikh Mohamed bin Khalifa bin Ahmed Al-Khalifa, Minister of Oil of the Kingdom of Bahrain shared his views on the current state of the energy market at the Global Energy Risk Forum Series that the International Energy Forum (IEF) and the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) launched on 21 July, 2020.
Dialogue at the virtual IEF-GARP Global Energy Risk Forum, the first in a four-part series, focused on evolving physical and financial energy market interactions and the unusual energy market volatility caused by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the world economy. In the run-up to the inaugural IEF-GARP Global Energy Risk Forum on Sustainability in an Evolving Risk Environment that is currently scheduled to take place on 26 May 2021 in Vienna, Austria, forthcoming virtual IEF-GARP Global Energy Risk Forum sessions will focus on:
The Secretary General of the IEF, Joe McMonigle and Richard Apostolik, President and CEO of GARP, provided opening remarks and welcomed H.E. Sheikh Mohamed bin Khalifa bin Ahmed Al-Khalifa and invited guests. Mr Paul Cusenza, Chairman & CEO, Nodal Exchange, set the scene for panelists Ed Morse, Global Head of Commodity Research at Citigroup and Tobias Paulun, Chief Strategy Officer of EEX Group and moderated discussions that touched on several topics including:
The Chairman of the IEF-GARP Global Energy Risk Forum Steering Committee, Vincent Kaminski, Professor of Practice of Energy Management at Rice University delivered concluding remarks and high-lighted the importance of ongoing dialogue on the IEF platform in collaboration with partner organisations. The second virtual IEF-GARP Global Energy Risk Forum on Transformative Trends in Energy Supply and Demand will take place on 15 September 2020.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The International Energy Forum (IEF) today welcomed Joseph McMonigle of the United States as its new Secretary General.
Mr. McMonigle begins his four-year term on July 1 as the IEF’s fifth Secretary General and the first US citizen to hold the position.
“I am honored by executive board’s confidence in electing me as Secretary General,” Mr. McMonigle said. “I look forward to working with the board and Secretariat staff to facilitate and strengthen the dialogue of important energy issues and challenges facing our member countries.”
With over 25 years in the public and private energy sectors, Mr. McMonigle is well known as an energy policy expert, geopolitical strategist, and leading analyst of energy markets.
Mr. McMonigle comes to the IEF from The Abraham Group, an international energy consulting firm he co-founded and based in Washington, DC.
Previously, Mr. McMonigle was Vice Chairman of the International Energy Agency Board of Governors (2003-2005) and Chief of Staff at the US Department of Energy (DOE) during the George W. Bush Administration (2002-2005). In addition to his other duties at DOE, Mr. McMonigle also served as Co-Chair of the US-China Energy Working Group (2003-2005).
The IEF is the world’s largest gathering of Energy Ministers from both producing and consuming countries as well as transit states. The IEF’s 70 member countries represent 90 percent of global supply and demand for oil and gas. Member countries cooperate under the neutral framework of the IEF to foster greater mutual understanding and awareness of common energy interests to ensure global energy security.
The Secretary General serves as Chief Executive and Head of Mission of the IEF, which is headquartered in the Diplomatic Quarter of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
In response to the unprecedented impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global energy markets, an Extraordinary Virtual Meeting of G20 Energy Ministers was held under the Chairmanship of HRH Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman bin Abdulaziz, in which the International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Energy Forum, (IEF) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) took part, alongside the Islamic Development (IDB), Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and the World Bank (WB).
In their concluding statement G20 Ministers agreed among others to:
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum Dr Sun Xiansheng called for International solidarity, enhanced dialogue, and greater energy data transparency through JODI while highlighting the next IEF17 International Energy Ministers Meeting scheduled to take place on 25-26 September 2020 as an important next opportunity to take stock of developments and foster collective responses.
The mission of the IEF to strengthen global energy security, market transparency, and facilitate orderly transitions remains closely linked to the core objectives of the G20 to achieve global economic stability, sustainable growth, and to modernise international governance systems. Dialogue and cooperation agendas on the IEF and G20 platforms rely on each other to reduce risks, prevent, and adequately respond to global economic and energy market crises.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Hosted by the G20 Presidency of Saudi Arabia dedicated to Realizing Opportunities of the 21st Century for All, the International Energy Forum (IEF) Secretariat presented IEF dialogue insights in the opening plenary session of the G20 Workshop on Enhancing Energy Market Stability and Security on 5 March 2020, and in three subsequent parallel sessions of the 1st G20 session of the Energy Sustainability Working Group that took place on 7 and 8 March 2020 in Riyadh.
The Group of 20 (G20) mission to maintain global economic stability and sustainable growth through voluntary governance initiatives, benefits from dialogue and collaboration on energy security and market stability that the world economy, human development, health and well-being depends on. The IEF provides the global platform for inclusive and neutral producer-consumer dialogue on energy security, market transparency, and orderly transitions that complements the pursuit of G20 objectives, and globally shared goals formulated by the United Nations (UN) and other relevant intergovernmental platforms.
In the G20 Workshop on Enhancing Energy Market Stability and Security the IEF addressed cross-cutting aspects of security in the global energy market. In the 1st G20 Energy Sustainability Working Group the IEF presented on safeguarding energy flows and infrastructure, and enhancing market transparency, in particular in respect of oil inventory data in the non-OECD region. In discussions on energy systems for a new era, the IEF highlighted the solutions that new policy concepts on climate neutrality such as the Circular Carbon Economy offers for the world economy to grow and develop in a sustainable way.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum (IEF), Dr Sun Xiansheng; Director-General of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Franceso La Camera; and the President of the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC), Mr Adam Sieminski co-hosted the First IEF-IRENA Seminar on Renewables and Clean Energy Technology Outlooks in collaboration with KAPSARC on 20 February 2020 at the IEF Headquarters in Riyadh.
The Roundtable was held under the Chatham House Rules. Dialogue explored the role of renewable and clean energy technology play in energy outlooks and how they contribute to energy security, orderly transitions, and sustainability. The three key sessions focussed on:
Discussions focused on renewable and clean energy technologies and approaches such as Carbon Capture Storage, the Circular Carbon Economy, the role of green vs blue hydrogen and the extent to which electrification paired with renewables can enhance sustainability. Panelists also highlighted the importance of fossil fuels and how the oil and gas industry will be a critical element in facilitating orderly energy transitions. In the end, a whole systems approach to decarbonisation will need to be applied to achieve maximum mitigation against climate change.
The First IEF-IRENA Seminar on Renewables and Clean Energy Technology Outlooks is the first event jointly hosted by the IEF and IRENA in collaboration with KAPSARC. IEF Member States have called on the IEF to pool efforts in globally integrated frameworks to accelerate energy transitions and energy efficiency gains across the full energy sector spectrum and leverage the IEF Energy Efficiency Knowledge Sharing Framework in collaboration with relevant organisations and governance platforms globally.
The outcomes of the First IEF-IRENA Seminar on Renewables and Clean Energy Technology Outlooks will be captured in an IEF Dialogue Insight Report and help to inform the global energy dialogue including but not limited to the 17th IEF Ministerial Forum hosted by Saudi Arabia and co-hosted by Morocco and Nigeria. The Forum will convene on 25-26 September 2020 in Dhahran on the theme "Vision for a New Era: The Producer-Consumer Quest for Stability, Change, and Growth."
Moderated by Dr Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General, IEF
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The Tenth Anniversary IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks took place on 19 February 2019 at the IEF Headquarters in Riyadh in collaboration with the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Senior government and industry representatives from producing and consuming countries met alongside heads of international organisations, distinguished policy makers, and energy analysts, and economists to discuss energy outlooks and enhance dialogue on global energy security, energy market transparency, and orderly energy transitions.
HRH Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman bin Abdulaziz, Minister of Energy, Saudi Arabia made introductory remarks on behalf of the host country Saudi Arabia, alongside HE Dr Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General of the IEF; Dr Ayed Al Qahtani, Director, Research Division, OPEC; and Mr Keisuke Sadamori, Director, Energy Markets and Security Directorate, IEA. Mr Tommy Joyce, Deputy Assistant Secretary, Global Energy Security and Multilateral Engagement, from the US Department of Energy, was also invited to provide opening remarks as a special guest.
More than 150 senior government and industry representatives from energy producing and consuming countries contributed to the discussions on the neutral platform the IEF provides. On behalf of the three organisations, and in accordance with the recommendations of IEF and G20 Ministers, the Symposium welcomed Mr Francesco La Camera, Director-General of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), and the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), represented by Mr Dmitry Sokolov, Head, Energy Economics and Forecasting.
HE Dr Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General of the IEF; Dr Kamel Ben Naceur, Chief Executive Officer, Nomadia and former Energy Minister of Tunisia; and Mr Mark Finley, Senior Fellow in Energy and Global Oil, Baker Institute, moderated Symposium Sessions that were governed by the Chatham House Rule. Introductory keynote presentations were provided by Mr Francisco La Camera and Dmitry Sokolov on behalf of IRENA and the GECF. The three sessions discussed:
Moderated by HE Dr Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General, IEF
Moderated by Mark Finley, Senior Fellow in Energy and Global Oil, Baker Institute
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum (IEF), Dr Sun Xiansheng, and the Ambassador of the European Union to Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar, HE Michele Cervone d’Urso, co-hosted the Fourth IEF-EU Energy Day on 18 February 2020 at the IEF Headquarters in Riyadh.
Keynote addresses, invited from both the European Union (EU) and the G20 Presidency of Saudi Arabia highlighted new green technology investment and deployment over the long-term, and how a Circular Carbon Economy can play a role towards energy sector transformations.
The event featured several speakers including:
The Fourth IEF-EU Energy Day was held under the Chatham House Rules, against the background of major new policy initiatives and market developments in Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa (MENA) that will open up new opportunities for trade, technology transfer, and investment among these regions. Participants benefited from the contributions of various European senior government and private sector panelists from Austria, Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain. Insights from organisations such as the Arab Petroleum Investment Corporation (APICORP) and projects such as “New Futures” (NEOM) provided a unique MENA perspective on energy transformations.
Discussants noted that, oil and gas companies will continue to play a major role in realising orderly energy transitions given fossil fuel demand will grow until at least 2035-2040. At the same time, new energy technology deployment and innovation, driven by advancements in Carbon Capture Use and Storage, hydrogen storage, and the implementation of a Circular Carbon Economy will allow for more orderly and enduring transitions. Panelists noted that although advances have been made, greater regional collaboration, and interconnections are necessary in accelerating energy transitions towards a carbon-neutral energy future.
Government policies will set the conditions for investment in innovation and green technologies, but economic growth requirements also play a role. The falling cost of renewable technology, the long-term prices of natural gas, and implementing efficiencies in existing energy systems will also determine the future course towards secure and sustainable functioning of the energy market.
The outcomes of the Fourth IEF-EU Energy Day will be captured in an IEF Dialogue Insight Report and help to inform the global energy dialogue including but not limited to the 17th IEF Ministerial Forum hosted by Saudi Arabia and co-hosted by Morocco and Nigeria. The Forum will convene on 25-26 September 2020 in Dhahran on the theme "Vision for a New Era: The Producer-Consumer Quest for Stability, Change, and Growth."
Moderated by Freiherr Hans-Christian von Reibnitz, Chargé d'Affaires a.i., Embassy of Germany to Saudi Arabia, former Ambassador to Oman
Moderated by HE Georg Pöstinger, Ambassador of Austria to Saudi Arabia
The meeting, hosted by the IEA at their headquarters in Paris, followed up on the progress on the various items as per the 2015-2020 JODI Action Plan and the guidance obtained from IEF Ministers and the JODI Heads of Organisations.
The meeting further discussed the following items:
Energy research and data providers, Refinitiv, and Bloomberg, took part in the meeting and briefed JODI Partners on the availability of JODI data on their data redistribution platforms and discussed how this increases JODI visibility for users.
JODI Partners will continue to enhance JODI data by the development of the Energy Data Transparency Portal. The portal is planned for launch during 2020 and will feature data beyond oil and gas including available data for coal.
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Dr Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General of the International Energy Forum (IEF), and Francesco La Camera, Director-General of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on 12 January, 2020 at the conclusion of the Tenth Session of the IRENA Assembly in Abu Dhabi.
In an important step forward for the global energy dialogue, the International Energy Forum (IEF) and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) will work together and seek greater dialogue and cooperation on energy issues. The MOU aims to provide a framework for cooperation between the two organisations that will include everything from working on joint research projects and sharing insights to collaborating on high-level events and technical workshops.
"There are many organisations that bring their own unique energy perspectives," says Dr. Sun Xiansheng. "However, we cannot solve the world's energy challenges in isolation. Now more than ever, collaboration and dialogue are needed to advance global energy sustainability and transformation towards a low-carbon energy future."
Informal dialogue between the IEF and IRENA has accelerated in recent years which culminated in a presentation by IRENA Director-General Francisco La Camera on IRENA's perspectives on the global energy transformation outlining a pathway to sustainability based on renewables on 16 October, 2019 at the IEF headquarters in Riyadh. Dialogue between both organisations will be further strengthened at the 1st IEF-IRENA Seminar on Renewables and Clean Energy Technology Outlooks in collaboration with other partners at the IEF on 20 February, 2020.
The collaboration with IRENA is in line with the IEF Vision, Mission, and Values which was formally adopted by the IEF Executive Board on 18 December, 2019. Part of this mission involves expanding collaboration and outreach with like-minded and relevant organisations at both a national and international level to strengthen the energy dialogue. The aim is to promote and facilitate greater mutual understanding of common energy issues, narrow differences between various stakeholders, cooperate in key areas, exchange views, and develop confidence and trust through improved information-sharing.
From the IEF perspective, dialogue will focus on three key pillars that include:
To ensure effective dialogue that incorporates a multitude of views and perspectives, the IEF will ensure all dialogue will remain collaborative, adaptive, balanced, impactful and reliable according to the IEF Vision, Mission and Values guidelines.
The MOU with IRENA is one of several steps towards consolidating the role of the dialogue in the future to promote inclusive economic growth, prioritise energy security, alleviate climate change, and facilitate an orderly energy transition.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Dr Sun Xiansheng, IEF Secretary General, welcomed Mr Joe M Kang, President of the International Gas Union on 8 January, 2020 at the IEF headquarters to present his organisation’s views on the state of the global gas market. Entitled “The State of the Industry Global Gas Report 2019,” the presentation discussed IGU’s perspectives on the growth of natural gas and future prospects.
Mr Kang highlighted the role of natural gas in providing energy security, ensuring affordability, and facilitating sustainability. In 2018 alone, natural gas production increased by almost 5 percent and pipeline and LNG trade increased by 4 percent due to greater pipeline capacity additions and increased LNG infrastructure. Together, these developments have provided countries with greater import and export optionality and are indicative of the role natural gas will play in the future in maintaining energy security over the long-term. To achieve this shared goal, continued investment in gas infrastructure will be critical to sustaining growth, providing inclusive access, and enabling orderly energy transitions.
Lower natural gas prices are a key driver of natural gas demand growth. An average decrease of about two dollars at key global natural gas hubs in 2018 has made natural gas a more affordable fuel choice amongst energy consumers. As non-OECD energy markets such as China and India seek to reduce urban pollution, natural gas will increase its competitiveness as a cleaner fuel while providing a balance between both pricing and environmental concerns. Achieving such a balance will contribute towards enhancing energy security and orderly energy transitions. Mr Kang also noted that these efforts must be accompanied by measures from both industry and governments to reduce methane emissions and maximise the sustainability benefits of natural gas.
Looking forward, natural gas is set to increase its share in the energy mix by 2040. Currently at 22.7 percent according to the IGU, natural gas will see its percentage rise anywhere from 23-26 percent by 2040 according to major outlooks. Even under a rapid transition scenario, natural gas can see an increase up to 27 percent in the energy mix due to the forecasted reduction of coal. At approximately 650 trillion cubic meters globally, the sheer availability of natural gas is a boon for energy security. However, its future growth potential will continue to depend on its affordability, investment in infrastructure, rising technology potential as a sustainable fuel, and government policies promoting its use.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development (RIPED) of the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) offers unique insights that enrich the global energy dialogue with Chinese perspectives on global energy trade, investment trends, and their impacts on global energy security. Dr Sun Xiansheng, IEF Secretary General, welcomed Dr Mu Longxin, Vice President of RIPED, to present the Institute’s views on global oil and gas market developments along with oil and gas exploration and development initiatives.
Dr Mu Longxin highlighted that the Americas region has yielded the greatest production increase with more than 8 percent growth in oil and gas equivalent by the end of 2018. Unconventional oil and gas production grew by almost 6 percent outpacing growth in both onshore and offshore conventional supply. Conventional oil production grew by almost 3 percent in 2018, the fastest in the past decade with notable increases coming from the US, Canada, Brazil, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. Overall, natural gas production is growing faster than oil given the rise of new LNG technologies and unconventional drilling techniques. According to the Institute’s assessments, US tight oil production will peak around 2025; a view that is shared by other major outlooks.
Dr Hon Yongke, Director, Department of Research Management of RIPED outlined that oil and gas investment has generally declined compared to the mid-2000s but noted a rise in growth of about 2 percent in 2018. Although oil and gas sector investment has slowly trended upwards since 2016, it is far from the levels observed before the 2014 market shift, which will impact energy security in future. Lower levels of investment combined with growing geopolitical uncertainties can increase energy market volatility when sustained over an extended period.
While overall exploration activity decreased, the number of drilled wells increased dramatically since last year with close to 1700 wells drilled representing almost 15 percent growth in 2018. Newly added reserves were primarily on account of 20 large- and medium-scale oil and gas fields that are currently in production, of which 85 percent are situated in middle-shallow reservoirs. In terms of new discoveries, projects in the Eastern Mediterranean, Guyana, Russia, Norway, and Australia will add to global energy supply.
In the long-term, offshore production will dominate global exploration priorities along with strengthening independent exploration while increasing investment in science and technology. Through its devoted efforts in the past 50 years, RIPED has made an important contribution to the progress of petroleum technology and development of the Chinese petroleum industry. For more information, please see the key link and presentations below.
Malabo, Equatorial Guinea
Dr Sun Xiansheng, IEF Secretary General, participated as a guest of honour and delivered a keynote address during the 2nd GECF (Gas Exporting Countries Forum) International Gas Seminar held in Malabo, Equatorial Guinea. The Seminar, part of the 5th GECF Summit of Heads of State and Government, convened under the theme, "Gas: Challenging the Status Quo, Creating a Sustainable Future."
H.E. Gabriel Obiang Lima, Minister of Hydrocarbons and H.E. Yury Sentyurin, Secretary General of the GECF welcomed participants and opened proceedings. Sessions were introduced by the keynote speech by H.E. Francisco Pascual Obama Asue, the Prime Minister of Equatorial Guinea.
In the session entitled "Natural Gas, Energy and Meeting Sustainable Development Goals," Dr Sun Xiansheng discussed the opportunities and challenges as they pertain to Africa's natural gas sector. He outlined five key advantages for natural gas in Africa including, the role of sustainability, cost competitiveness, abundance of resources, potential for regional integration, and spillover economic opportunities that can occur as a result of increased natural gas use. Dr Sun also pointed out three key challenges for Africa which include improving energy access, facilitating the energy transition, and increasing cooperation and dialogue amongst African countries.
Member-states reiterated their commitment to strengthen global energy security as reliable suppliers of natural gas to meet the world's growing energy demand along with enhancing cooperation and dialogue. From an emissions perspective, member states also resolved to enhance the contribution of natural gas for climate mitigation, adaptation, and protection of the environment.
The 5th Heads of State Summit and the 2nd International Gas Seminar represents the first time that the event was held on the African continent, reflecting the increasing interest of African gas-producing countries to engage with the organisation. The biannual event seeks to promote and facilitate constructive dialogue on the future of natural gas between Ministers, CEOs of national and international oil and gas companies, heads of international organisations, academia, and gas industry analysts.
Malabo, Equatorial Guinea
A JODI-Gas Information Session was held as a part of the JODI Information Seminar series on 26th November 2019 on the sidelines of the GECF International Gas Summit of Heads of State and Government in Malabo, Equatorial Guinea. The Seminar was opened by HE Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General of the International Energy Forum (IEF); HE Gabriel Obiang Lima, Minister of Mines and Hydrocarbons of Equatorial Guinea; and HE Yuri Sentyurin, Secretary General of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF).
JODI Partners were joined by associate partner, the Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC), to discuss how the JODI Initiative can be best leveraged amongst JODI partners and everyday users.
The JODI Seminar also gathered government officials, industry experts, and media to discuss the progress of JODI since its inception almost 20 years ago. Speakers called for more reliable data to support short-, and long-term market research and forecasts. They also highlighted the importance of data transparency to achieve energy transition and sustainable development goals, including SDG7 that aims to "ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all.” Participants also provided insights on the challenges and opportunities of data collection, and how collaboration can achieve shared solutions.
The seminar is part of the ongoing JODI Five-Year Action Plan that calls for:
Hosted by the Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources of Egypt, the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) Partners organised the 14th International JODI Conference (IJC14) in Cairo, Egypt on 20 – 21 October 2019. HE Tarek El-Molla, Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources opened the conference along with HE Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General of the International Energy Forum (IEF). From its founding at the 7th IEF Ministerial in Saudi Arabia in 2000, JODI has consistently delivered on calls for “improved and timely access to energy data for market assessment and transparency” in line with requests from ministers.
This 14th biennial conference gathered 140 stakeholders in addition to the JODI Partner Organisations (APEC, Eurostat, GECF, IEA, IEF, OLADE, & OPEC) and JODI Associate (OAPEC). The stakeholders included representatives of national and international oil and gas companies, governments, and data users from around the world.
The two-day ICJ14 debated how JODI could improve on delivering free, accessible, official energy data on a monthly basis with the support of the seven JODI Partner Organisations. ICJ14 Participants noted:
The key findings and operational outcomes of the conference will be reflected in the ICJ14 Concluding Statement. These will be taken forward as part of the next JODI Five-Year Action Plan that will guide the JODI Partners in taking the initiative forward over the 2020-2025 period upon the endorsement of the Heads of the JODI Partner Organisations meetings prior to the 17th International Energy Forum Ministerial (IEF17) that Saudi Arabia will host with Morocco and Nigeria as co-host in 2020.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Dr Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General of the International Energy Forum (IEF), welcomed Mr Francesco La Camera, Director General of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) on 16 October at the IEF Headquarters in Riyadh. Mr Francesco La Camera presented IRENA’s perspectives on the global energy transformation outlining a pathway to sustainability based on renewables.
He highlighted the key findings from IRENA’s 2019 report, examining a renewable energy roadmap to 2050 to ensure a sustainable energy future (REmap Case). The growing share of renewables in capacity additions for electricity generation, that is well above 80 percent since 2016, shows that renewables have become competitive in the power sector. Renewable deployment and electrification together can deliver 75 percent of energy-related carbon-dioxide emission reductions. With energy efficiency measures included, this would rise to over 90 percent according to IRENA’s REmap Case projection to 2050. Mr La Camera further highlighted the many opportunities renewable deployment can create for employment, the oil and gas industry, and the Gulf region.
Discussions focused on cost implications for network stability while integrating larger shares of renewables. The shorter lifecycles and reduced efficiencies of renewables compared to other energy technology choices were also discussed alongside the merits of government support for renewable energy and fossil fuels through subsidies. Mr La Camera mentioned that renewable energy enables just energy transformations that help to alleviate energy poverty, facilitate inclusive access to modern energy services for all, and achieve greenhouse gas emission reduction goals. He concluded by mentioning IRENA’s desire to cooperate with other international organisations and financial institutions, and facilitate cooperation among the public and private sector to mobilise the investments that the Global Energy Transformation requires.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The IEF welcomed Chris Birdsall, Manager of the Economics & Energy Division of ExxonMobil’s Corporate Strategic Planning Department to contribute to the IEF lecture series at its Riyadh headquarters on 6 October 2019. Mr Birdsall presented the 2019 Outlook for Energy: A perspective to 2040 which provides ExxonMobil’s perspective on energy demand and supply through to 2040, together with Ms Irene C. Chang, Industry Outlooks Manager Strategy & Portfolio Management of ExxonMobil Upstream Business Development Company, who focused on global gas market trends over the projection period.
The report informed a distinguished audience of diplomats, industry representatives and academic researchers on the company’s long-term global view of factors that will shape the world’s energy future. Discussions focused on how energy supply and demand trends evolve across regions and economic sectors, and the role that government and industry can play to scale up new technologies through regulation, trade, and partnership.
Mr. Aurangzeb Qureshi, IEF Energy Analyst, represented Dr Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General, International Energy Forum, at the Global Forum on Energy Security in Beijing, China on 17-18 September 2019. The annual event was co-hosted by the Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics (IQTE) at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS), and the United States Energy Security Council (USESC).
Entitled "Global Energy Security in a Changing World: Green and Innovative Solutions", the conference focussed on how energy market volatility combined with developments in green technology influence global energy security. Presentations focused on the future of China’s power sector and how energy transitions impact its current energy mix. Attendees noted a long-term decrease in coal demand that will be offset by an increase in oil and natural gas demand. Follow-up presentations promoted the development of greater inter-connectivity through China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to enhance energy security and cooperation. A special session was held on the trade dispute between China and the U.S. to discuss short and long-term impacts to the global energy market. Mr. Qureshi discussed how the trade dispute could impact the global flow of Liquified Natural Gas, Natural Gas Liquids and polymer-derived products and highlighted implications for both the U.S. and China.
Further discussions focussed on how Asian economies, integrated and linked with the BRI could improve energy access. Sessions underscored that dialogue and cooperation in both public and private partnerships among government and industry are key to ensure global energy security. The Forum concluded with a discussion on breakthroughs in energy technology, and the diversification of transportation fuels to lower emission alternatives to gasoline, such as natural gas, methanol, and hydrogen.
The latest iteration of the Global Forum on Energy Security is the eighth instalment of an initiative that started in 2012. It has now become China’s premier international platform for dialogue on the evolving global energy landscape and the changing nature of global energy security. The forum aims to promote research and information exchanges on energy security among think tanks, government officials, diplomats and industry leaders.