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Fifth IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

The Fifth IEA-IEF-OPEC  Symposium on Energy Outlooks took place on 23 March 2015 at the IEF Headquarters in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The Heads of the IEA, IEF and OPEC opened the Symposium. Dr Aldo Flores-Quiroga, IEF Secretary General, moderated discussions of the first session. To improve transparency among various scenarios and advance a data driven and well informed producer-consumer dialogue, these focussed on the latest OPEC and IEA energy outlooks and a comparative analysis of short-, medium-, and long-term energy outlooks released by the IEA and OPEC in 2014 provided by the IEF-Duke University Introductory Background Paper

Watch highlights from the 5th IEA IEF OPEC Symposium on Energy OutlooksSymposium discussions in the subsequent sessions were moderated by senior industry practitioners and facilitated an open exchange of views among invited participants. Key energy outlooks from industry stakeholders factored into the discussions. Well-informed insights deepened the collective understanding of present day market dynamics and their impact on energy market security, with a special focus on investment.

The Symposium is part of a wider joint programme of work agreed upon by the three organisations and endorsed by energy ministers at the 12th International Energy Forum (Cancun, March 2010). Attendance is by invitation only.

Session I: Key findings from the Comparative Analysis on Energy Outlooks, and presentation of the latest IEA and OPEC projections.

Session Chair: HE Aldo Flores-Quiroga, Secretary-General of the IEF

Session II: Industry views on short-, medium-, and long-term energy outlooks

Session Moderator: David Fyfe, Head Market Research and Analysis, Gunvor Group

Session III: Uncertainties in coping with appropriate investment decisions

Session Moderator: Harry Tchilinguirian, Global Head, Commodity Markets Strategy – Commodity Derivatives, BNP Paribas

Additional Reading

The IEF-Duke University Global Energy Outlooks Comparison: Methods and Challenges

Previous Symposia

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16th International Oil Summit

Paris, France

The International Oil Summit, first held in October 2000 is a conference organised each year in Paris by IFP Energies Nouvelles, the energy weekly Pétrostratégies, and IFP Training.

Since its inception, it has become one of the most important annual events in this field, facilitating the exchange of ideas and enabling the participants to share their assessments of current international situations and the future of the world oil market.

This year the overarching theme of the Summit was “Restoring profitability to the oil industry amidst the current environment of costs and prices.” Participants were also encouraged to consider the development of shale oil production in the US, the impact of “low” oil price on demand and on reserves, the effect on NOCs, and on the prospects for mergers and acquisitions. 

IEF Secretary General Aldo Flores was invited to participate in an IEA-IEF-OPEC session moderated by M. Olivier Appert, CEO, IFP Energies Nouvelles. Dr Flores’ presentation on “New forces at work in oil supply and demand: Trends, questions and outlook” is available for download below.

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12th International JODI Conference

New Delhi, India

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"10 Years of The JODI-Oil Database 1 Year of The JODI-Gas Database" Lessons Learned and The Shared Path Forward

The 12th International JODI Conference was held in New Delhi, India from 8-10 April 2015. The Conference was generously hosted by the Government of India and organised by the International Energy Forum in cooperation with the JODI partner organisations: Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the Statistical Office of the European Union (Eurostat), the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Latin American Energy Organization (OLADE), the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD). The Conference benefitted from the active participation of 90 delegates representing 25 countries/economies, as well as energy data experts, market analysts from international organisations, financial sector, media, and the industry at large.

The New Delhi conference, which coincided with the 10th anniversary of JODI-Oil and the 1st anniversary of JODI-Gas, was the first occasion on which users of the two data transparency initiatives met in joint session.

The conference convened actors and stakeholders at various stages of the JODI data supply chain ranging from the energy companies that collect the source data, and the national administrations responsible for JODI data reporting, through to the JODI Partners responsible for collating and checking the data quality, and the data users (analysts and reporters) that monitor market trends and disseminate JODI data through their analysis to a wider audience. By bringing all of these stakeholders together, the conference facilitated communication and improved cooperation among them. Enhancement of such interaction is a vital tool in the quest to improve the functionality and reach of the Initiative.

Representatives from industry and national administrations shared their experiences in regard to the collection of complete, accurate and timely data. Discussions highlighted good practices and flagged challenges that impact goals of continuous improvement to the sustainability, timeliness and completeness of JODI data.

During the course of the conference the concept of “better data – better decisions” was strongly reinforced by anecdotal comments from the market experts present. Representatives of the Media who regularly use JODI data in their reports gave an insight into the manner in which they employ JODI data, and made suggestions for enhancements to the Initiative, including recommendations on how to enhance the visibility of JODI to a wider user-base.

Capacity building, which has always been a cornerstone of JODI activity was addressed as a key development issue in New Delhi. Participants emphasized the need to broaden the definition beyond the accepted norm, so that in addition to teaching technical skills to individual participants future work will also account for the need to set up and maintain appropriate structures in reporting institutions, as well as legal and institutional frameworks in JODI-reporting countries.

Reflecting on the outcome of the New Delhi conference the JODI partners reiterated their call on governments of participating countries and economies to ensure that their administrations and organisations in charge of energy data collection are properly equipped and staffed. They also emphasised the notion that governments should implement appropriate regulations to ensure that industry is fully engaged in the process and is required to regularly submit data of the required detail and format.

Please visit the JODI website for the presentations and further details about the event.

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IEA-IEF-OPEC Technical Meeting on linkages between Physical and Financial Energy Markets

Vienna, Austria

The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum, Dr Aldo Flores-Quiroga participated in the Joint IEA-IEF-OPEC Technical Meeting on the linkages between Physical and Financial Energy Markets (OPEC, Vienna, 30 March 2015). The meeting, a feature of the trilateral IEA-IEF-OPEC programme of work, is part of an ongoing series aimed at helping to determine the causes and consequences of high energy market volatility and to identify remedies.

Current market turbulence has again sharpened focus on the interactions between physical and financial energy markets and their contribution to energy market volatility. The 2010 Cancún Ministerial Declaration called on the IEF (including major producers outside OPEC and major consumers outside IEA) to cooperate in a trilateral work programme with IEA and OPEC to promote confidence among producers and consumers and send strong market signals to help stabilise long-term expectations. Following the oil market turbulence of 2008, four joint IEA-IEF-OPEC workshops on physical and financial interactions took place in a period of relative oil price stability. New demand and supply trends, brought about by investments in conventional and new energy technologies as well as the implementation of new energy policy and regulatory initiatives have reshaped energy markets, affecting physical - financial energy market interactions and their role in energy market turbulence.

The Technical Meeting gathered senior level representatives from physical and financial energy market stakeholders, alongside experts from price reporting agencies, regulatory institutions, advisories and academia.

Session One focused on patterns in oil market volatility and how the shift from low volatility of the past years to higher volatility today may change future price dynamics and interactions between physical and financial energy markets.

Session Two focused on the impact of present day oil price volatility on investment and debt servicing obligations of energy companies and their access to financing.

Session Three dealt with data availability for futures and swaps and focused on the challenges regarding classification, transparency, oversight and the overall evolution of standards to help make risks and opportunities more transparent.

Session Four concluded the meeting by addressing developments in financial market regulation including benchmarks in respect of EU, US and other initiatives as well as the joint IEA-IEF-OPEC survey assessment on the market impact of the IOSCO Principles for Oil Price Reporting Agencies carried out on behalf of the G20.

Presentations

Related Reading

Oil and Debt, by Dietrich Domanski, Jonathan Kearns, Marco Jacopo Lombardi and Hyun Song Shin

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Joint Summary Record

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IEF Event Summary

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Oil Market Volatility, Investment and Spare Capacity

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum, Dr Aldo Flores-Quiroga, and the President of the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, Mr Samer AlAshgar, convened a joint IEF – KAPSARC Thought-Leaders’ Roundtable on Oil Market Volatility, Investment and Spare Capacity: Connections, Costs and Consequences, to thereby contribute toward the understanding of developments that are shaping world oil markets and the producer-consumer dialogue. The Joint Thought Leaders’ Roundtable was held at the IEF Secretariat on 24 March 2015 and shed light on the return of turbulence in global oil markets and its consequences for investment and spare capacity.

Discussions in Session I, moderated by Dr Aldo Flores-Quiroga, focused on investment and how the oil industry will adjust capital expenditures to current market turbulence, and what consequences are for future supply and demand balances. 

Discussions in Session II, moderated by David Hobbs, Vice President Research of KAPSARC, discussed the requirements for spare capacity under new supply and demand realities and who is to furnish it, and at what cost. The meeting was open to participants of the Fifth IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks that convened at the IEF Secretariat on 23 March. HE Amir Hossein Zamaninia, Deputy Petroleum Minister for International Affairs and Commerce, Ministry of Petroleum, Islamic Republic of Iran, contributed as a panelist to the roundtable discussion, alongside other leading global energy experts.

Session I: Investment: how is the oil industry adjusting capital expenditures to current market turbulence and what are the likely consequences for the future supply-demand balance?

Moderator: Aldo Flores-Quiroga, Secretary General, IEF

Session II. Spare capacity: Is it required under new supply and demand realities? Who must provide it and at what cost?

Moderator: David Hobbs, VP of Research, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center

Previous IEF Thought-Leaders Roundtables:

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11th Regional JODI Training Workshop for South East European Countries

Vienna, Austria

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The 11th Regional JODI Training Workshop was hosted by the Energy Community Secretariat at its Headquarters in Vienna from 23-25 March 2015. The IEF Secretariat organised and co-ordinated the workshop with the support of other JODI Partners (IEA, EUROSTAT, GECF, OPEC, & UNSD) for the benefit of statistical officers in charge of hydrocarbon data collection at national administrations primarily from South Eastern European countries.

35 delegates from 14 countries took part in the workshop which was designed to raise awareness and build understanding of the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) among the member states of the Energy Community, many of which are not yet contributing data to JODI.  

The participation of key experts in charge of energy data from several of the JODI partner organisations provided participants with a good overview of JODI and highlighted the importance of cooperation in the quest for global data transparency. The workshop’s hands-on training sessions also provided an opportunity for delegates to receive detailed instruction on JODI definitions and to learn more about the data quality assessment techniques necessary for the accurate and timely completion of JODI questionnaires. Experience-sharing among and between the Energy Community Contracting Parties and the European Union Member States participating in the JODI, proved to be particularly useful, especially in regard to their data collection practices and concerns related to data validation.

Ukraine and FYR Macedonia are the only contracting parties of the Energy Community participating in the JODI initiative. However, as a follow-up to this successful workshop the Energy Community now aims to ensure that the remaining countries will be ready to contribute to the JODI World Database before the end of 2015.   

Please visit the JODI website for further details about the 11th Regional JODI Training Workshop.

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Geopolitics of Energy: Key Challenges - Lecture by Dr Iván Martén
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IEF Lecture - Geopolitics of Energy: Key Challenges

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

The IEF was honoured to receive Dr Iván Martén of Boston Consulting Group’s (BCG) Energy Practice at our headquarters today. Dr Martén, who joined BCG in 1987 and is the global leader of the firm's Energy practice, delivered an IEF Lecture entitled “Geopolitics of Energy: Key Challenges” to a distinguished audience of diplomats, representatives from the energy and finance sectors and academia.

Dr Martén's presentation covered a wide range of market developments that are affecting energy demand, supply, and trade patterns, as well as their relationship to geopolitical factors. He highlighted how climate change challenges, the evolution of the energy mix, the impact of technology on production and consumption trends, the unpredictable nature of energy markets, and the impact of volatile oil prices on the competitiveness of nations are reshaping the world of energy.

Dr Martén's presentation is available for download below:

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IEF Lecture: World Gas Market's Outlook: Developments and Perspective

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

The IEF was honoured to receive Mr Victor Zubkov, Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for Cooperation with the Gas Exporting Countries Forum at our headquarters today. Mr Zubkov who is also Chairman of the Board of Directors of Gazprom, and a former Prime Minister of the Russian Federation delivered an IEF Lecture entitled "World Gas Market's Outlook: Developments and Perspectives" to a distinguished audience of diplomats, representatives from the energy and finance sectors and academia. A translation of the full text of Mr Zubkov's speech is available for download below.

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ExxonMobil: The Outlook for Energy - A View to 2040

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

The IEF was honoured to receive Mr Rob Gardner, Manager of the Economics & Energy Division of the Corporate Strategic Planning Department ExxonMobil Corporation at our headquarters today. Mr Gardner delivered a presentation of ExxonMobil's Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 to a distinguished audience of diplomats, representatives from the energy and finance sectors and academia. The Outlook for Energy is ExxonMobil’s long-term global view of energy demand and supply. Its findings help guide ExxonMobil's long-term investments, and the Outlook is shared to help promote better understanding of the issues shaping the world’s energy future. Updated each year, this edition covers the period to 2040.

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