The 15th International Energy Forum (IEF15) will be held in Algiers from 26-28 September 2016. Hosted by the Government of Algeria, the biennial Ministerial will gather Ministers, senior officials, CEOs, International Organisations, and experts from the 72 member countries of the IEF.
HE Ségolène Royal, Minister of Environment, Energy and the Sea, France
HRH Prince Abdulaziz Bin Salman Al-Saud, Vice Minister for Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources, Saudi Arabia.
H.E. Prof Sospeter Muhongo, Minister of Energy and Minerals, Tanzania (tbc)
On 29 August Dr Sun participated in a high-level roundtable held under the Chatham House Rule and chaired by ONS President and CEO, Leif Johan Sevland and Munich Security Conference (MSC) Chairman Ambassador, Wolfgand Ischinger. Daniel Yergin moderated the meeting in which host-country Minister of Foreign Affairs, HE Børge Brende (MoFA) and Minister of Petroleum and Energy, HE Tord Lien also participated.
The subjects addressed during the course of the roundtable included energy security concerns arising from geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle-East, the effects of the current low oil price environment, and the potential consequences of the uncertainty that these issues and others create in markets that must also consider the implications of the recent Paris climate change pledges.
Several observers noted the fundamental disconnect between the aspirations of the Paris agreement and the realities imposed by current economic and social pressures. Others pointed out that although the outlooks from the IEA, OPEC and others concur that fossil fuels will likely still comprise over 75% of the global energy mix by 2040, the agreements reached in Paris point to an entirely different picture. Some observed that coupled with the effects of the current market overhang, the absence of cohesive and clearly communicated policy is testing the risk threshold of the energy industry and capital markets alike. They further noted that investment is already lagging far behind the requirements needed to support projected future demand curves.
On the subject of the elusive "golden age of gas", many around the table lamented the ongoing and seemingly counter-intuitive use of coal at the expense of the much cleaner alternative offered by gas. This sentiment was expressed most strongly in regard to Europe where the phenomenon was attributed in the main to economic and social pressures that encourage market behaviour that is at odds with policy-makers' strong advocacy for a low-carbon future.
The absence of Europe-wide gas receiving and distribution infrastructure was also noted by some as a limiting factor in the gas story, even as the potential for abundant and diverse supplies of LNG from Australia, USA and the Middle East seem to offer gas a golden opportunity to capture the market post-Paris. The power of infrastructure was illustrated by one participant who noted that even the act of building a single LNG import terminal capable of receiving seaborne supplies had exerted significant downward pressure on the price of pipeline-supplied gas.
Gas seemed to have widespread support around the table being cited more than once for its suitability as an ideal base-load agent and bridging fuel of choice. Examples given, included the significant reduction in US emissions attributed to the substitution of gas for coal to mid-90's levels on the one hand, and recent issues of intermittency in Australian renewable energy supplies on the other. The UK's policy of favouring gas over coal in regard to the replacement of coal-fired plants with ones powered by natural gas was welcomed as a bold and decisive step in the right direction by one participant. Another participant cited recent sales of gas from the USA to China and Kuwait as a success story motivated by economics rather than geopolitics.
In reference to calls from some participants for the removal of coal subsidies, others pointed out that in some countries, coal was not subsidised, but was nonetheless ‘king’ given its indigenous abundance and the economic realities of the coal price versus that of imported gas. Referencing earlier comments about the absence of comprehensive Europe-wide gas infrastructure interconnections as a stumbling block for gas penetration, one participant noted that India faced the same issue with poor gas links to inland demand centres.
There was a groundswell of support for the notion that the most pragmatic approach to ensuring energy security in an uncertain world is to diversify both the mix and the sources of supply. However, it was also noted that even this simple sounding solution is dependent on the availability of adequate and timely investment, and that this is unlikely to be forthcoming if risk levels are perceived to be too high or too volatile.
The following day Dr Sun and Shell CEO, Ben van Beurden took part in an ONS Summit panel moderated by Daniel Yergin and held in the presence of Norwegian Prime Minister, HE Erna Solberg, and the Norwegian Minister of Petroleum and Energy, HE Tord Lein. World Energy Council Secretary General, Dr Christoph Frei and Narendra Taneja, Energy Advisor to India’s ruling BJP Party also participated in this event. The IEF Secretary General stressed the importance of ongoing producer-consumer dialogue and cooperation (also with transit states) especially during times of uncertainty and high volatility. He further emphasised that governments should seek to build a balanced energy mix sourced from a diverse range of suppliers in order to satisfy both their aspirations for a sustainable energy future, and to protect their collective energy security.
Dr Sun and his team also engaged in several bi-lateral meetings with officials from the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Ministry of Petroleum and Energy, as well as with the CEO of Statoil and representatives from think-tanks and academia.
The meeting, hosted by OPEC at their Headquarters, focused on reviewing progress and action plans in regard to the following:
JBC Energy also participated in a special session of the meeting during which they delivered a presentation, exchanged views with partner organisations on the use of JODI data, and suggested potential improvements.
The Energy Community attended part of the meeting and delivered a briefing on the progress they are making in regard to helping to expand the depth and reach of JODI by encouraging some of their South European member countries to engage with the Initiative in the near future.
Partners expressed support for ongoing efforts to hold the next JODI Workshop for the CIS & MENA regions in Moscow later this year. They further endorsed the proposal for a subsequent workshop to target the African region during 2017.
It was further agreed that the nascent JODI-User Seminar series should be developed in line with the established model, and delivered as suitable opportunities arise. Partners also agreed to hold a JODI conference in 2017 to maintain the Initiative’s current excellent momentum, and to further benefit from discussions with the JODI –user community.
Partners further agreed on a set of actions to improve coal data transparency, including the synergising of the existing coal data collection efforts of those partners that already collect some form of coal data.
On the important subject of formalising and encouraging the broad dissemination of JODI data via the electronic platforms of data re-distributor agencies, Partners arrived at an agreement in principle on the assumption that such redistributors agree to meet a range of pre-conditions which are in the process of finalisation.
The International Energy Forum (IEF) participated in the Group of 20 Energy Ministers’ Meeting, held under the Chinese Presidency of the G20 on 29-30 June 2016 in Beijing, China. G20 Energy Ministers gathered in Beijing to deliver voluntary action plans on enhancing energy access in Asia and the Pacific, facilitate the deployment of renewable energy, and increase collaboration on energy efficiency.
The Chinese G20 Presidency advanced implementation of the G20 Principles on Energy Collaboration agreed under the G20 Presidency of Australia in 2014, and built on the outcomes of the 1st G20 Energy Ministers’ Meeting held in Istanbul, Turkey in 2015.
The G20 called on the International Energy Forum to establish a Knowledge Sharing Framework on Energy Efficiency in support of the G20 Energy Efficiency Leading Programme. This extends work on an Asian Energy Efficiency Knowledge Sharing Framework under the IEF that Energy Ministers gathered at the 6th Asian Ministerial Energy Roundtable in Doha, Qatar in 2015 endorsed upon a proposal from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia with the support of Japan.
Energy efficiency is important to both energy producers and consumers to balance the goals of economy, energy and environment. In pursuit of the framework’s shared objective, the IEF will collaborate with other relevant International Organisations and Agencies, to give greater visibility to energy efficiency policies and strengthen international capacity and collaboration on energy efficiency, also beyond the G20.
The IEF has set a standard in inter-institutional cooperation under the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI), where it works in concert with APEC, Eurostat, the GECF, IEA, OLADE, OPEC, and UNSD to improve energy market transparency.
Energy Ministers of the G20 welcomed IEF work on market transparency and energy security. They emphasised the importance of market transparency for secure and efficient energy markets, as well as the facilitation of investment. They committed, amongst others, to further strengthen JODI, and welcomed the cooperation among the IEF, OPEC and IEA, on energy outlooks, encouraging them to continue their cooperation on market transparency and the interaction between physical and financial markets.
The IEF and JODI Partners organised the 13th Regional JODI Training Workshop in Beijing from 18-20 May 2016. The Economics and Technology Research Institute (ETRI) of the China National Petroleum Company (CNPC) was the official host of the event which was endorsed by the National Energy Administration (NEA) of China. The JODI team delivered a training programme tailored to the requirements of statistical officers from the national administrations of China and other countries in the Asian region.
Seven Asian countries were represented at the workshop which gathered more than 30 delegates in the Chinese capital. The workshop served to raise awareness and build a better understanding of the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) and to improve submissions from this key region.
Host country participants included representatives from the National Bureau of Statistics, National Energy Administration, CNPC ETRI, and graduate students from both BEIHANG University and TSINGHUA University in Beijing.
For more detailed information on this event and to access the presentations delivered at the workshop, please visit the event page at the JODI website.
The Secretary General of the of the International Energy Forum (IEF), Aldo Flores-Quiroga opened the IEF-Bank of Canada Workshop on Commodity Cycles and their Implications that was jointly organised with the Bank of Canada on 25 April 2016 in Ottawa, Canada. The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, Timothy Lane concluded the meeting on behalf of the hosting organisation.
The Workshop discussed recent developments across various commodity markets and evaluated their implications for economic stability and oil market security. Accomplished academics and practitioners presented their research findings and insights in three sessions moderated by Cesaire Meh, Chief International Economic Analysis of the Bank of Canada, Timothy Lane, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, and Adam Sieminski, Administrator of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (see below detailed agenda including research papers and presentations).
In the First Session, "Technological Advancement and Commodity Dynamics", discussants addressed how technology advancements have affected commodity cycles and to what extent these explain recent market fluctuations.
The Second Session, "Distributional Effects of Commodity Shocks", focused on how commodity price shocks affect welfare across different countries and economic sectors. Participants discussed the role of monetary policy in the face of commodity shocks.
The Third Session, "Implications of Oil Market Shocks", assessed the impact of pronounced oil market movements across industries, labour markets, and individual countries, in an effort to identify the factors that determine how countries respond to commodity market fluctuations.
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum concluded the Workshop with a moderated panel discussion on Swing Production and The Role of Credit among senior industry and financial sector practitioners. Panelists discussed the impact of credit markets on production and the changing dynamics in spare capacity and storage between producing and consuming countries.
The meeting was governed by the Chatham House Rule and participation was by invitation only. To find out more, please contact Christof van Agt, Senior Energy Analyst, IEF (Christof.firstname.lastname@example.org) or Mr Bahattin Buyuksahin, Policy Adviser, Commodities, Bank of Canada (email@example.com).
The International Energy Forum (IEF) participated in the Second G20 Energy and Sustainability Working Group (ESWG) meeting hosted by the National Energy Administration of China on 12-14 April 2016 in Shenzhen, China.
Building on the outcomes from the First G20 Energy and Sustainability Working Group meeting on 28 January 2016 in Xiamen, China, G20 member countries discussed the advancement of energy efficiency, clean energy, energy access, and global interconnections, with a focus on the possible outcomes of the Second G20 Energy Ministerial Meeting taking place on 29-30 June 2016 in Beijing, China.
The IEF underscored its support to the G20 energy efficiency work program and noted that it is in the process of establishing an Asian Energy Efficiency Knowledge Sharing Framework, a cooperation initiative adopted by Ministers at the 6th Asian Ministerial Energy Roundtable of 8-10 November 2015 in Doha, Qatar.
The IEF briefed delegates on the work of the JODI Partner Organisations (APEC, Eurostat, GECF, IEA, OLADE, OPEC, and UNSD) to improve the timeliness and completeness of energy data collection for JODI-Oil and JODI-Gas, and recognised the on-going support of the G20 toward greater oil and gas market data transparency.
For further information on the meeting itself please see the links below.
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum, Dr Aldo Flores-Quiroga, participated in the Fifth Joint IEA-IEF-OPEC Workshop on the interlinkages between Physical and Financial Energy Markets (OPEC, Vienna, 15 March 2016). The meeting, a feature of the trilateral IEA-IEF-OPEC programme of work, is part of an ongoing series aimed at helping to determine the causes and consequences of high energy market volatility and to identify remedies.
Market turbulence has increased and again sharpened focus on how the interactions between physical and financial energy markets contribute or cushion energy market volatility. The 2010 Cancún Ministerial Declaration called on the IEF (including major producers outside OPEC and major consumers outside IEA) to cooperate in a trilateral work programme with IEA and OPEC to promote confidence among producers and consumers and send strong market signals to help stabilise long-term expectations. Following the oil market turbulence of 2008, four joint IEA-IEF-OPEC workshops on physical and financial interactions took place in a period of relative oil price stability. New demand and supply trends, brought about by investments in conventional and new energy technologies, the impact of longer term economic trends and expectations, as well as the implementation of new energy policy, regulatory and data transparency initiatives reshape energy markets. These developments affect physical - financial energy market interactions and their role in energy market turbulence.
The Fifth Workshop gathered senior level representatives from physical and financial energy market stakeholders, alongside experts from price reporting agencies, regulatory institutions, advisories and academia.
Session Moderator: David Fyfe, Gunvor Group
Session Moderator: Harry Tchilinguirian, BNP Paribas
Session Moderator: John Kemp, Thompson Reuters
Session Moderator: Andy Walker, Mitsubishi Corporation International (Europe)
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The IEF was honoured to receive Dr Christof Rühl, Global Head of Research at the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority at our headquarters today. Dr Rühl delivered a presentation on “Oil markets and the Global Economy” to a distinguished audience of diplomats, and representatives from the energy, finance and industrial sectors. Dr Rühl’s comprehensive presentation explored the current economic landscape, noting amongst other factors, the influence of improvements in energy intensity, the function of a strong dollar, the impact of exchange rate policy, and the cushioning effect of strong interconnectivity between the economies of producer and consumer countries.
The presentation is available for download below.