US oil and gas exports have grown substantially and are making landfall in a growing number of countries. This is influencing current market dynamics and will continue to reshape global oil and gas trade. Following the oil market downturn in late 2014, unconventional US oil and gas production has become more resilient due to cost reductions and operator innovation. By 2017, US crude oil and petroleum products exports reached 6.3 million barrels per day while natural gas exports reached 8.7 billion cubic feet per day. Infrastructure and environmental considerations, however, present a potential, albeit temporary, drag on US exports’ stellar rise. Infrastructure constraints are limiting evacuation options and natural gas flaring exemptions for crude oil-directed developments are likely to lapse. The combined effect will be that some production may be shut in or take longer to materialise.
US oil production increased by over 5.5 mb/d over the past decade, covering for production declines that resulted from above-ground constraints elsewhere. Although shale production dipped in 2015, it has recovered since due to productivity improvements and higher prices. Nevertheless, both near-term global market balance and US exports will depend largely on global demand. US exports will be driven by profitability because development is driven by commercial considerations; US oil and gas are not an overt policy vector. Hence, international trade opportunities and the ability to overcome hurdles related to cost and market access through innovation and new infrastructure will drive exports in the long term. This will contribute to an ongoing transformation of global oil and gas trade, along with frontier supplies in the Western Hemisphere – including in several countries ranging from Canada to Argentina.
US shale has made global supply more price responsive. But, while shale can temper long term price movement it remains governed by market fundamentals. So, US shale will lend to greater long term price stability, but the role of inventory and spare capacity as a stabilizing force for short term disturbances in the global market is not diminished. Moreover, given that oil and gas demand will be largely driven by non-OECD markets for the next couple of decades, the importance of traditional sources of supply remains significant.
The Second JODI Inter Secretariat Meeting of 2018, chaired by the International Energy Forum, was hosted by Eurostat on 4-5 July at the Eurostat Headquarters in Luxembourg. Representatives of the JODI Partner Organisations, including APEC, Eurostat, IEA, IEF, OLADE, OPEC & UNSD, met to discuss the progress of JODI initiatives and the way forward in light of the guidance and feedback received from the JODI Heads and IEF Ministers during the 16th IEF Ministerial Meeting and Heads of JODI Meeting held in India on 10-12 April, 2018.
The partners also reviewed progress and action plans regarding the following:
Participation Assessment of the JODI Oil and JODI Gas World Databases and steps taken by the JODI Partners to improve the quality of data being collected and submitted to the JODI Databases;
G20 Ministers feedback on JODI and data transparency;
Steps on harmonisation of coal data provided by JODI Partner Organisations and the creation of a JODI Coal portal on the JODI Website, aimed at improving global coal data transparency;
The Partners agreed to continue the JODI User Information Seminars with plans to host the next Seminar alongside the UNECE 9th International Forum in Ukraine in November 2018, taking advantage of the large number of energy experts who will be in attendance.
Finally, the JODI Partners deliberated on how to continue to improve cooperation and inclusiveness of collaboration with other regional energy organisations such as AFREC, OAPEC, OFID and others, who are keen to share benefits of association with JODI and strive towards greater global data transparency.
The 2018 conference was focussed on how energy governance and innovation play a role in China’s “New Belt Road Initiative” (BRI) given the importance and scale of the BRI as it relates to global energy security. Presentations focussed on the future of China’s energy demand followed by projects dedicated to the promotion of development and connectivity. Sustainability was also an important topic throughout the conference. The future of energy as it pertains to “smart society” was discussed at length through presentations by think tanks and companies specialising in renewable energy solutions.
The forum also addressed energy geopolitics featuring speakers from Chinese and American think tanks with special emphasis on energy governance and President Xi Jinping’s geopolitical and geo-economic vision in Eurasia. Detailed analysis of developments in Asia Pacific oil and gas markets including Asian refining and trade and LNG upstream, downstream, transportation and infrastructure dynamics were also discussed. The forum contributed to sharpening collective focus on the development of the LNG industry in China, the future of LNG imports in light of increasing coal to gas switching, and related new investments in gas storage.
To advise the G20 Delegations, the Presidency of Argentina circulated the Concluding Statement of the IEF16 Ministerial Meeting that HE Dharmendra Pradhan, Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas and Minister for Skill Development and Entrepreneurship of India, issued on behalf of the IEF16 host country, India, on 12 April 2018, in advance of the G20 Energy Transitions Working Group and Energy Ministers Meetings.
The Secretary General took part in the G20 Energy Ministers Meeting proceedings and held several bilateral meetings with participating heads of delegations.
Dr Sun Xiansheng moderated panel session discussions on the role of gas as part of the pathway to achieving a sustainable energy future. Other panel sessions focused on gas as an abundant, accessible and flexible energy source, and contributor to climate change mitigation and clean air. Discussions demonstrated that gas is both a catalyst for orderly energy transitions and sustainable development.
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum, Dr Sun Xiansheng hosted Mr Alexander Pögl, Head of Business Development of JBC Energy to present on recent oil market dynamics and JBC demand and supply projections at the IEF Headquarters in Riyadh on 10 May 2018. The presentation provided perspectives on OPEC supply strategies, US tight oil production and the repercussions of crude quality changes, including the impact of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) bunker fuel regulation on oil markets.
On the demand side, Mr Pögl highlighted that after almost six years of sustained demand growth, increases in consumption may slow due to rising prices for transport fuels that, out of all refined products, are forecast to remain the strongest force to shape the dynamics of demand. Pointing at a recent upswing in European oil demand, gasoline and diesel demand are projected to come under pressure in the 2020s.
On the supply side, Mr Pögl touched on the interaction between OPEC and US tight oil supplies driven by the Permian Basin. Though the first phase of US tight oil production was largely absorbed by US refineries, new production will be directed to international markets after infrastructure constraints are overcome to draw US stockpiles to international markets. He also noted that technology advances allow the industry to operate with greater efficiency. This has not only enabled more resilient unconventional production but is also likely to decrease conventional decline rates. The presentation concluded by discussing the IMO Bunker Fuels Regulation that limits sulphur emissions to 0.5 percent globally by 2020 and what this entails for LNG and oil product demand and how industry can best meet this challenge.
IEF Lecture: Belt and Road Initiative and the Role of Gas in China's Energy Transition
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
IEF Lecture: Belt and Road Initiative and the Role of Gas in China's Energy Transition
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum, Dr Sun Xiansheng was pleased to host Dr Zhang Hualin, Director General, Policy Research Office, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) as the Head of the CNPC Delegation presenting on the China “One Belt One Road” Initiative (OBOR) and the Role of Natural Gas in China’s Energy Transition at the IEF Headquarters in Riyadh on 8 May 2018.
CNPC’s presentation on “The Belt and Road”: Oil and Gas Cooperation Basics”, provided an overview of OBOR including CNPC’s role in the project ‘s scale and breadth that involves 68+ countries with a combined population of 4.4 billion. The OBOR initiative revolves around 3 Principles and 5 Priorities: The Principle of Joint Discussion, Co-construction and Sharing with Priorities focussed on Policy Coordination, Facilities Connectivity, Unimpeded Trade, Financial Integration, and People-to-People Bonds. The substance of the presentation focused on CNPC’s role in managing risks and opportunities in the energy sector dimension of the 5 overseas oil and gas cooperation areas of the OBOR initiative by implementing these principles and priorities.
CNPC’s presentation on “The Role of Gas in China’s Energy Transition” and focussed on natural gas demand-supply dynamics including China’s growing natural gas consumption and domestic production. CNPC baseline projection for natural gas demand to grow by 8.6% between 2016-2020 and 4.3% between 2020-2030 reaching 290 billion cubic meters (bcm) and 440 bcm in 2020 and 2040 respectively. Excellence in natural gas supply chain management must be achieved by the 5As of Availability, Accessibility, Assurance, Affordability and Accountability as accelerated urbanisation and clean air requirements demand.
For China’s gas industry to enter a period of strategic opportunity and rapid development price and infrastructure hurdles need to be overcome according to CNPC. Alongside China’s increasing reliance on international energy markets for oil, gas and coal imports – for which foreign dependencies reached 68%, 39% and 9.5% respectively in 2017 – the energy transition challenges China faces relate to a coal dominated and carbon intensive industry. To overcome these challenges, China’s 13th Five Year Energy Plan promotes expansion of the natural gas market, scaling up renewables as well as deploying clean and ultra-efficient technologies, while reducing excess coal capacity.
IEF Lecture: Global Energy Markets: Today and Tomorrow
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
IEF Lecture: Global Energy Markets: Today and Tomorrow
In his presentation and roundtable discussion, moderated by the Ambassador of Germany to Saudi Arabia, His Excellency Dieter Walter Haller, Dr Birol complimented the IEF Secretary General on the successful conclusion of the IEF16 Ministerial Meeting hosted by India on 10-12 April in New Delhi. He noted that Asian economies such as India have moved closer towards the centre stage of world energy affairs and highlighted that global oil demand growth had rebounded in 2017 at twice the rate of the past decade. The need for investment in oil has therefore not diminished, given continued growth in demand and 3 mb/d of declines from mature fields each year.
Asian energy demand growth in which India has taken over the lead from China will influence global energy markets trends. Natural gas, electrification and digitalisation will be new driving forces alongside growing demand for oil in transport and petrochemicals sectors and for clean technologies in coal fired power generation. Dr Birol pointed towards a moderate decoupling between global economic growth and carbon emissions over recent years accompanied by large-scale deployment of wind and solar technologies. Although, after three years of remaining flat, global energy-related CO2 emissions grew in 2017 partly due to less emphasis being placed on energy efficiency.
IEF Lecture: Oil Supply Risks and Opportunities: The Big Moving Parts
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
IEF Lecture: Oil Supply Risks and Opportunities: The Big Moving Parts
The first of the two-part presentation focused on geopolitical risks to oil supply that may create volatility in a tightening market. Discussion revolved around the political volatility in Venezuela and the Middle East including what a potential withdrawal by the United States from the 2015 Iran deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action may imply for an oil market moving towards equilibrium. PPI concludes that OPEC spare capacity is limited, and security of supply is now more exposed to geopolitical risks.
Part two of the presentation discussed whether tightening supply-demand balances risk a new oil cycle by eroding demand or will stimulate more investment. Participants discussed how geopolitical risks, new policies, and technology advances will work together to assess their impact on oil market stability.
IEF16 Ministerial
New Delhi, India
IEF16 Ministerial
New Delhi, India
The Government of India hosted 90+ delegations including 50 energy ministers, 30 CEOs, 12 heads of international organisations and 500+ guests at the 16th biennial International Energy Forum Ministerial Meeting (IEF16) in New Delhi on 10-12 April 2018 with the support of the People’s Republic of China and the Republic of Korea as co-hosts. The meeting was held under the theme: "The Future of Global Energy Security - Transition, Technology, Trade and Investment". Providing the opportunity for attendees to discuss relevant issues that currently affect global energy markets, the IEF Ministerial is the largest gathering of energy ministers in the world.
Meeting on the neutral global platform that the IEF provides to strengthen international cooperation on energy through dialogue, the IEF16 focused on how global shifts, transition policies and new technologies influence market stability and future investment and trade patterns in the energy sector. Dialogue among Ministers and industry leaders on how global shifts, new policies and technologies change investment and trade patterns and influence energy market security, facilitate orderly transitions, and accelerate the achievement of shared goals.
On behalf of the IEF16 host country, Shri Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India inaugurated the IEF16 Ministerial Meeting. Prime Minister Modi shared his energy vision as comprising four pillars – energy access, energy efficiency, energy sustainability and energy security. He called for a mutually supportive relationship between producers and consumers. He also called for optimal use of the neutral platform of the IEF to build a global consensus on ‘responsible pricing’, that serves the mutual interests of both producers and consumers. H.E. Dharmendra Pradhan, Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas and Minister for Skill Development and Entrepreneurship of India, HE Khalid Al Falih, Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and H.E. Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General of the International Energy Forum also addressed delegates at the Inaugural Session, setting the scene for the Forum’s discussions.
Ministerial dialogue was structured in four thematic plenary sessions, and four parallel roundtables focussed on:
Global shifts: The Future of Global Energy Security – Finding New Balances
Sustainable and Inclusive Growth – Energy Access and Affordability
Oil and Gas Market Stability and Change – Investment in a New Era
Uptake of Clean Technologies: Disruption and Coexistence of New and Existing Technologies – The Way Ahead
Meeting at a time of uncertainty, dynamism and change, IEF16 ministers acknowledged that global energy security is taking on new meanings that have just as much to do with adaptability as energy access, affordability, and inclusive and sustainable growth. IEF16 ministers noted that their presence in New Delhi manifests that, through open dialogue, energy market stakeholders can move forward faster and farther when embracing shared value propositions that benefit all. Noting from contributions by both the International Energy Agency and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries that the fossil fuel sector shall continue to provide around three-quarters of energy demand in 2040, as projected in their main scenarios, IEF16 delegates focused dialogue on the mutual reinforcing role of fossil fuels and clean energy technologies, including renewables calling for reliable, and realistic transformations that all can afford, and rational responses to the global energy challenges we face together.
Photo: Heads of Delegation at the IEF16.
Delegates took note of the contributions by the OPEC Fund for International Development (OFID), and the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), acknowledging that global agreements on shared goals, and energy access concluded under the aegis of the United Nations in 2015, are in the early phases of implementation and that despite progress, collective efforts must be stepped up to achieve universal energy access and alleviate energy poverty by 2030.
IEF16 delegates focussed on the limited volume of upstream oil and gas sector investments as a consequence of the downward price cycle, and the risks and opportunities that new unconventional production resilience brings to the stability of oil and gas markets globally. Ministers and industry leaders welcomed enhanced dialogue on the role of new and existing energy producers and innovative cooperative arrangements to collectively shoulder the responsibility of maintaining oil and gas market stability and ensure investment moves forward in a timely and cost-effective manner in both short and longer cycle oil and gas projects.
Delegates welcomed the rapid development of new energy technologies and the competitive disciplines a more diverse and vibrant market environment creates for the industry at large. To ensure successful energy sector transformations, IEF16 delegates acknowledged that more dialogue is needed on new policy and technology deployment to facilitate cost-effective transitions between new and existing technologies. Delegates recognised that failure to protect investments of existing assets in favour of new technologies will deter the effective mobilisation of capital in new projects as well.
IEF16 delegates noted that global shifts in energy demand and supply patterns, as well as rapid technology advances alter world energy market dynamics and compel corresponding governance structures including the institutional set up of the IEF energy dialogue to respond to evolving producer-consumer relations. IEF16 delegates also acknowledged that as energy markets are governed by complexity, enhanced dialogue on probable energy pathways will improve market transparency and work to achieve shared goals together. They noted that institutional cooperation has gone from strength to strength to make different outlook projections more comparable, raise the energy dialogue to a higher level and welcomed sharpened focus on reducing differences in historical baseline data, improving fuel type classifications and the modernisation of country classifications.
IEF16 ministers, industry leaders, and heads of international organisations applauded the leadership of the government of India in taking the IEF energy dialogue forward as host of the 16th International Energy Forum Ministerial. Thanking the government of India for its generous hospitality, and the People’s Republic of China and the Republic of Korea for their support as co-hosts, IEF16 delegates took note of the productive outcomes of their dialogue reflected in the concluding statement (available for download) that H.E. Dharmendra Pradhan, Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas, and Minister for Skill Development and Entrepreneurship presented on behalf of the government of India
Photo: The Honourable Shri Narendra Modi opens the IEF16
The meeting of the Heads of the JODI Partners is held every 2 years in association with the IEF Ministerial Meeting. The main objective of the Head of JODI meeting is to help determine and set forth an agreed path forward for JODI based on the outcome of consultations with the JODI data-user community and the aspirations of the Partners to deliver ongoing improvements to the Initiative.
The JODI Heads discussed how they can best collaborate with different stakeholders at various stages of the JODI Data supply chain focusing on improving the quality and completeness of the released information. They also reviewed progress made on the 5-Year JODI Action-Plan and commend future JODI activities in line with the Plan.
The JODI Heads welcomed that JODI is now seen as reference in the oil and gas industry, and that JODI Data now appear on commercial data redistribution platforms.
The JODI Heads took note of efforts to improve energy data transparency beyond the current data collection framework by increasing the visibility and accessibility of currently available data, such as coal, on the JODI Website, and to assess thefeasibility of extending JODI coverage to other energy flows.
Upon concluding the meeting, the Heads of JODI Partner Organisations called on all JODI stakeholders in government and industry to continue their support for improving JODI Data quality. The Partners also called on IEF Ministers to ensure that the necessary regulatory and institutional framework, as well as adequate human and financial resources are available to provide comprehensive, reliable, and timely energy data.
The event was inaugurated by H.E. Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General of the IEF and Sunjay Sudhir, Joint Secretary for International Cooperation of the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, India. H.E. Yury Sentyurin, Secretary General, GECF, H.E. Mohammed Sanusi Barkindo, Secretary General, OPEC as well as representative of APEC, IEA, and OLADE inaugurated the Seminar.
The Seminar gathered government officials, industry experts, and media to revisit the history of JODI, characterised by strong political support since its inception in 2000. Acting as the mechanism for cooperation among national administrations, the JODI Partners were highlighted for their role in the JODI Data supply chain, maintaining a key feature of the initiative.
IEF Secretary General, H.E. Sun Xiansheng highlighted that leaders need reliable data to make foresighted decisions on policies and investments. He reaffirmed the IEFs commitment to enhance global energy data transparency under the JODI framework and saluted collaborations by the JODI Partners amongst international organisations and representatives of national administrations to achieve the shared goals of JODI. Sunjay Sudhir reinforced the significance of reliable data to support short-, and long-term gas market research and forecasts.
Fuad AlZayer, the Coordinator of JODI at the IEF highlighted strong political support and joint efforts of the JODI Partners as well as their member countries, to build the JODI Database since its inception in 2000. Erica Robin, Oil and Gas Section Head, IEA highlighted the key features that differentiate JODI from other data sources while Aziz Yahyai of OPEC demonstrated how OPEC use JODI data for their market research to achieve “Better Data - Better Decisions”. Atreyee Das, Director General, Petroleum Planning and Analysis, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, India, underlined the benefits of energy data transparency for national administrations and India’s journey to enhance their energy data transparency.
Delegates from the JODI Partners Organisations and Seminar attendees deliberated views on the way forward, and avenues for overcoming challenges faced in the processes involved in compiling the JODI World Databases.
Attendees viewed data transparency as paramount to a smooth energy transition and stronger collective efforts towards achieving sustainable development goals, including the UN Sustainable Development Goals: SDG7 - “Ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all”.
The JODI Information Seminar hosted in India held on the sideline of the IEF16 Ministerial was in line with key actions stated in the JODI 5-Year Action Plan which calls for raising awareness of the JODI platform and database, and Identifying and engaging champions for JODI.
By putting the JODI 5-Year Action Plan into practice, the JODI Partners spare no effort to meet with key stakeholders around the world to deliver JODI aspirations for:
The Workshop is part of the trilateral work programme established by the IEA, IEF and OPEC, and endorsed by energy ministers at the 12th International Energy Forum in Cancún, Mexico, held in March 2010 and subsequent G20 meetings. The Joint Workshop represents the 8th event in this particular ongoing dialogue of the trilateral work programme that considers the evolving inter-linkages between physical and financial energy markets, and issues of common concern not typically addressed in other high-level fora.
To encourage open and informative discussions, the Workshop was held under the Chatham House Rule, with participation of key market participants on the financial and physical sides of the market. The next Joint Workshop is scheduled to take place on 19 March 2019.
Welcome and Opening Remarks
HE Mr Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, Secretary General, OPEC
Informed by BP’s Statistical Review of Global Energy, the BP Energy Outlook 2018 provides high-quality data and well-informed assessments on world energy market developments. As the global energy landscape is changing, the outlook outlines BP's views of future global energy markets through 2040 and explores key uncertainties. This year’s presentation informed a distinguished audience of diplomats, industry representatives and academic researchers on the growing role of developing economies in energy consumption, continued energy efficiency gains, and the increasing share of unconventional production, as well as non-fossil fuels in global energy supply. Providing perspectives from one of the key players in the energy industry on global energy transformations, the presentation Mr Mark Finley gave upon the invitation of Dr Sun Xiansheng on the IEF platform advanced open, transparent and informed energy dialogue among IEF stakeholders.
16th Regional JODI Training Workshop for Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Europe
Odessa, Ukraine
16th Regional JODI Training Workshop for Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Europe
The Workshop was organised by the IEF with the support of the JODI Partners: APEC, Eurostat, GECF, IEA, OPEC, OLADE and UNSD. Trainers from Eurostat, GECF and UNSD were present to benefit the energy data professionals in charge of hydrocarbon data collection and dissemination at national administrations in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Europe.
More than 50 delegates from 10 countries took part in the Workshop designed to raise awareness of JODI and improve the national capacity to achieve better JODI data submission from each represented country within the region. The Workshop was opened by Mr Ihor Verner, Chair of State Statics Services of Ukraine, and was also attended by representatives from the Ministry of Energy and Coal Industry of Ukraine.
Hands-on exercises provided a unique opportunity to explore methodologies for condensing data from complex energy supply chains into simple JODI questionnaire formats. Throughout these intensive training activities, attendees actively exchanged in dialogue on data with the JODI Partner organisations and amongst themselves, to share knowledge on the best practices related to data reporting mechanisms.
Workshop attendees also had the opportunity to participate in a parallel forum on transportation policies held under EU4Energy framework, with a special emphasis on the need for reliable data to make effective policy decisions. The theme of this forum highlighted the JODI mission for Better Data, Better Decisions.
JODI Regional Training Workshops fall directly in line with Objective 3 of the JODI 5-Year Action Plan to continue to strengthen capacity building efforts to improve JODI Data quality, timeliness and availability.
The JODI Partners will continue to follow-up on outstanding issues identified during the workshop and commitments made by participating countries to ensure greater data transparency within the region.
Oil and gas markets witnessed profound changes on both the supply and demand side over the past three years. Market stability, however, appears more than before, to rest on agreements and technologies yet to be fully tested in the new market setting. Though new unconventional volumes have shortened investment cycles, and policy shifts on the demand side may slow demand growth rates, increasing oil and gas consumption must ultimately be balanced by a return of investment in conventional production and infrastructure.
The Workshop explored developments that are reshaping energy markets to help inform dialogue at the 16th International Energy Forum Ministerial that India will host in New Delhi on 10-12 April 2018 under the theme “The Future of Global Energy Security”.
Mrs Andrea Lockwood, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Africa, Middle East, Europe & Eurasia of the U.S. Department of Energy, and member of the IEF Executive Board welcomed participants. To set the stage for two panel sessions with representatives from industry, Dr Linda Capuano, Administrator of the U.S. Energy Administration and Mr Biswajist Roy, Director of Oil India Limited gave key note addresses. Joseph McMonigle, President & Cofounder of the Abraham Group, and Vicky Bailey, Founder of Anderson Stratton International, Director Cheniere Energy, Former Assistant Secretary of International Affairs at DOE, and Chairman of the USAE, moderated discussions on continuity and change in energy markets, and transparency respectively assessing strengths and weaknesses of the new oil and gas market setting and requirements for investment to move forward in future.
Discussions were governed by Chatham House rule, opening remarks and presentations are retrievable below.
Panel Session II Dialogue and Market Transparency; How is energy security served, what does investment require to move forward?
Moderated by Vicky Bailey, Founder Anderson Stratton International, Director Cheniere Energy, former Assistant Secretary of International Affairs at DOE
1st G20 Energy Efficiency and Renewables Forum and Energy Transitions Working Group
Buenos Aires, Argentina
1st G20 Energy Efficiency and Renewables Forum and Energy Transitions Working Group
Buenos Aires, Argentina
The International Energy Forum (IEF) participated in the 1st Energy Efficiency & Renewables Forum and Energy Transitions Working Group, held under the G20 Presidency of Argentina with the motto "Building Consensus for Fair and Sustainable Development" on 21-23 February 2018 in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
In the 1st Session of the G20 Energy Transitions Working Group the G20 Presidency requested the IEF to contribute to G20 session discussions on energy data transparency and markets digitalisation by presenting on JODI-Oil and Gas. Delegates observed that market transparency has always been at the heart of the IEF Energy Dialogue on energy security, and the mission of the G20. Enhancing collaboration on data transparency will become more important to strengthen energy security, sustainable development, and orderly transitions in the interests of all stakeholders. The greater ease of access to more granular data that digitisation offers will allow energy policy makers and investors to make better decisions faster in a more dynamically evolving world energy market.
The IEF also participated in the Energy Efficiency & Renewables Forum following the 2nd G20 Energy Ministers’ call on the International Energy Forum in 2016 under the Chinese Presidency to establish a Knowledge Sharing Framework on Energy Efficiency in support of the G20 Energy Efficiency Leading Programme. This extends work on an Asian Energy Efficiency Knowledge Sharing Framework under the IEF that Energy Ministers gathered at the 6th Asian Ministerial Energy Roundtable in Doha, Qatar in 2015 endorsed upon a proposal from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia with the support of Japan, and welcomed at the IEF15 Ministerial Meeting in Algiers in 2016.
At the 7th Asian Ministerial Energy Roundtable held in Bangkok, Thailand in 2017, Ministers encouraged stakeholders to pool efforts in globally integrated frameworks to accelerate energy efficiency gains across the full energy sector spectrum and leverage the IEF Energy Efficiency Knowledge Sharing Framework, in close collaboration with relevant organisations, and governance platforms in Asia, as well as with other international organisations such as the International Partnership for Energy Efficiency Cooperation, the IEA, the International Energy Charter, OPEC, SEforAll, the United Nations, working together in the G20 Energy Efficiency Leading Programme adopted under the Chinese G20 Presidency in 2016 and other relevant arrangements to further enhance energy productivity in Asia and the wider world economy.
IEF Lecture: ExxonMobil's 2018 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
IEF Lecture: ExxonMobil's 2018 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The IEF welcomed Mr Rob Gardner, Manager for the Economics & Energy Division of the ExxonMobil Corporate Strategic Planning Department at its Riyadh headquarters on 18 February 2018. Mr Gardner presented the 2018 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 which provides ExxonMobil’s perspective on energy demand and supply through 2040. The report informed a distinguished audience of diplomats, industry representatives and academic researchers on the company’s long-term global view of factors that will shape the world’s energy future. Findings from the outlook support ExxonMobil’s business strategies and investment plans to navigate through the changing energy market environment. The re-conceptualised report includes various alternative scenarios adding important insights to help inform an open and transparent energy dialogue from the perspective of a key energy sector stakeholder.
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum (IEF), Dr Sun Xiansheng and the Head of Research at the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC), David Hobbs moderated dialogue on energy security in transition at the 4th IEF-KAPSARC Thought Leaders’ Roundtable meeting on 15 February 2018. Discussions, governed by Chatham House Rule, explored whether fossil fuels will share common or differentiated energy futures, and how energy transition policies influence oil and gas investment assessing realities and visions.
The roundtable examined the future of oil, gas, and coal in a low demand growth environment. Panelists highlighted how subsidies on both fossil-, and non-fossil fuels, from coal to renewables, affect supply and demand patterns in producer and consumer countries differently according to varying needs. Panelists from consumer countries emphasised the importance of infrastructure investment to ensure networks are sufficiently resilient and robust to accommodate new technologies and changing demand and supply patterns. Though technology breakthroughs in unconventional oil and gas production and decentralised electricity generation are difficult to foresee, producers and consumers who swiftly adapt to these developments will succeed in the new market environment. Producer country representatives underlined the importance of improving energy efficiency in energy supply chains and economic sectors that rely on fossil fuels. They also highlighted the importance of diversifying energy technologies by unlocking investment from the private sector.
The roundtable follows up on a year-long engagement to explore scenarios for producers and consumers navigating the transition to a lower carbon energy future. The initiative was launched at the Third IEF-KAPSARC Thought Leaders’ Roundtable in 2017. Outcomes of these discussions will help to inform the global energy dialogue at the 16th International Energy Forum Ministerial Meeting under the theme "The Future of Global Energy Security, Transition, Technology, Trade, and Investment" hosted by India in New Delhi on 10-12 April 2018.
Photo: From left to right: Amos Hochstein, Senior Vice President, Marketing, Tellurian; former US Special Envoy for International Energy Affairs, Jamie Webster, Senior Director, Center for Energy Impact, The Boston Consulting Group, and Chris Midgley, Global Director of Analytics, S&P Global Platts.
Opening Remarks
Dr Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General, IEF
Session I: Common, or differentiated energy futures?
The Eighth IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The Eighth IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Energy ministers and world-renowned experts gathered in Riyadh for the 8th IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks that the International Energy Forum (IEF) convenes yearly in collaboration with the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to discuss energy outlooks, review historical baseline data, and advance the comparability of different scenarios in a collective effort to enhance producer-consumer dialogue on energy security and market transparency.
The Symposium was opened by Dr Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General of the International Energy Forum, HE Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, Secretary General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries; and Keisuke Sadamori, Director, Energy Markets and Security, representing the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency. The representatives of the three organisations welcomed more than 150 senior government and industry representatives from energy producing and consuming countries to the open platform the IEF provides.
In his welcoming remarks, Dr Sun Xiansheng noted that this year’s high-level attendance, which included the energy ministers of Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Sudan highlights the importance of inclusive dialogue on global energy security and energy data transparency for our shared energy future.
"Global energy dialogue is more important now than ever. We currently find ourselves at an energy crossroads, and it is imperative we talk to each other, engage one another and achieve goals together. This Symposium is essential to that end," Dr Sun Xiansheng said.
HE Khalid al-Falih Minister of Energy, Industry, and Mineral Resources, Saudi Arabia; HE Alexander Novak, Minister of Energy, Russia made introductory remarks on behalf of the host country, and participating ministers.
HE Khalid Al-Falih, said that "Realism and resolve are the only ways to achieve an orderly transition to a more secure, more sustainable energy future" and highlighted that "there is a tremendous opportunity here for the IEA, the IEF and OPEC to collaborate in promoting a rational view of future energy policy that will promote energy security, encourage environmental protection, meet and mitigate the challenges of climate change, and help to fuel economic prosperity not just in the developed world, but the developing world as well.
The Minister of Energy of Russia, HE Alexander Novak stated that "For any country to successfully implement its energy policy an adequate understanding of the main trends, and factors influencing markets is necessary. To create a predictable environment for policy and investment decisions we strongly believe that the process of modelling of the future, through an inclusive comparative analysis of Energy Outlooks, must become universal and global. In this regard, we yield due praise to the IEF, which for more than 20 years has been successful in its role as the main platform and coordinator of this process."
"Today’s event is a further bridge to enhancing a common understanding between IEF, the IEA and OPEC," the OPEC Secretary General stated. "These efforts are a priority for OPEC because in today’s increasingly complex and interlinked global oil market, no one player can go it alone - cooperation and dialogue are crucial."
Mr Keisuke Sadamori stated that the IEA was committed to working together with IEF, OPEC, and other stakeholders in order to make a significant contribution to the process of transition to more sustainable and secure energy systems.
Discussions in three sessions governed by the Chatham House Rule focused on the latest IEA and OPEC projections, key findings from the comparative analysis, projections by the US Energy Information Administration, invited as a special guest, and industry views on energy outlooks, as well as investment in unconventional and conventional oil and gas production. Reflecting on the outcomes of this year’s Symposium, the heads of the three organisations found that:
Comparing outlooks has become easier over successive meetings; dialogue on varied producer and consumer perspectives has become better informed and more collegial. This year’s comparative analysis of the IEA’s and OPEC’s short-, medium-, and long-term projections has led to better data outcomes and a sharper focus on differences in respect of
The shifts in global energy demand and supply patterns,
The role and resilience of unconventional production in OECD countries,
The extent energy matrices compared change over time.
A continued commitment to global dialogue to strengthen energy security world-wide – In a shifting energy landscape with more variable energy needs across regions, dialogue between IEF government and industry stakeholders on globally shared policy goals, investment requirements, and market solutions is vital to global energy security.
IEA-IEF-OPEC remain committed to achieving greater data consistency and improving the comparability of energy outlooks - Continued collaboration and agreement on baselines and projection periods, as well as definitions and classifications has helped to make IEA and OPEC forecasts more comparable. Senior experts meeting on 13 February in advance of the Symposium agreed to:
Share baseline and projection time frames for Outlooks published in 2018
Joint specialist workshops to further explore:
underlying assumptions in base case scenarios
global evolution of energy policies
energy technology pathways and breakthroughs
Consider options to bridge differences in the
classifications of countries and regions across both OECD, non-OECD and OPEC Member Countries, rendering them easier to compare
fuel types categorisation in regional and global balances
historical baseline data sets and revisions thereto
Enhance communication at an analyst level where appropriate, e.g. to flag significant data revisions and methodological issues, and benefiting from state-of-the-art IT technology, e.g. webinars, where possible.
And discuss these at their next joint meeting that OPEC will host on 16 March, following the 6th IEA-IEF-OPEC Workshop on the Interactions between Physical and Financial Energy Markets taking place in Vienna on 15 March 2018.
Dr Sun Xiansheng noted that "while considerable progress has been made in improving the comparability of IEA and OPEC outlooks, there remains room for improvement" urging further breakthroughs. "Other outlooks such as those provided by the US Energy Information Administration, or by companies and academia could well be included in future comparative analysis."
He echoed remarks by HE Khalid Al-Falih that "this gathering has become a true meeting of some of the greatest minds in the world of energy, and we look forward to a candid and constructive exchange of viewpoints, ideas and insights."
"Looking ahead, I believe there is great potential in expanding our existing dialogue and collaboration efforts and instituting them on a long-term basis," the OPEC Secretary General concluded. "Through open and transparent communication such as we have witnessed here today, we will foster a more sustainable stability in the global oil market, and all industry stakeholders will stand to benefit."
Mr Sadamori reaffirmed the ever-increasing importance of ensuring market transparency on the basis of accurate data at a time when the oil market is undergoing drastic changes.
Speeches and presentations made available with the consent of panellists are available below:
Dr Sun Xiansheng opened the 2nd IEF-EU Energy Day on Efficient and Sustainable Resource Management in the Circular Economy that the IEF co-hosted with the European Union on 13 February 2018. Ms Véronique Hyeulle, Senior Adviser Global Sustainable Development of the European Commission Directorate General Environment, presented on the European Union Circular Economy Strategy.
Dr Mustapha Taoumi, Clean Energy Technology Expert of the EU-GCC Clean Energy Technology Network, and Mr Amer Alrajiba, Deputy Sector Head, Energy, Industry & Minerals Sectoral Development Affairs of the Ministry of Economy and Planning moderated two panel discussions. One panel explored energy efficiency and waste management and the other discussed circular economy challenges and opportunities for the private sector. Both sessions invited interventions from high-level European Union and Saudi Arabian government and industry representatives.
Discussants focussed attention on how waste can be used as a resource in policy, industry practices, and product design in Europe and the Middle East. Debate also ensued on the outcomes of the discussion on energy efficiency and renewable energy at the 1st IEF-EU Energy Day. Topics included power to gas conversion, carbon capture use and storage options in the redesign of energy, and other supply chains in a circular economy. Delegates also noted that energy efficiency, resource productivity, and waste management gains go hand in hand when adequate investment conditions, including generating greater public acceptance, are provided in the policy and business environment. Waste heat recovery and cement industry intake of secondary fuels are first wins in economies that seek to place their resource management on a more productive and sustainable footing.
Outcomes of this collaborative effort will help to consolidate cooperation with institutional and industry stakeholders and further inform the IEF Energy Dialogue at the 16th International Energy Forum Ministerial hosted by India in New Delhi on 10-12 April 2018, as well as other upcoming ministerial events and dialogue meetings.
Photo: Véronique Hyeulle, Senior Adviser Global Sustainable Development, European Commission, Directorate General, Environment
Herman Huisman, Senior Expert for International Cooperation Ministry for infrastructure and Water, Netherlands
Photo: From left to right: Lucie Berger, Head of Trade Section, European Union Delegation Saudi Arabia, Amer Alrajiba, Deputy Sector Head, Energy, Industry and Minerals Sectoral Development Affairs Ministry of Economy and Planning, Hamid Al-Harthi, Sustainability Senior Manager, SABIC, Talaat Dafer, Vice President, SABIC, Luis Bertrán Rafecas, Secretary General, International Gas Union IGU, and Emmanuel Katrakis, Secretary-General, European Recycling Industries' Confederation
Panel Session 2: Circular economy challenges and opportunities for the private sector and SMEs
Moderated by Amer Alrajiba, Deputy Sector Head, Energy, Industry & Minerals Sectoral Development Affairs Ministry of Economy and Planning
The meeting, hosted by OPEC at their Headquarters in Vienna, focused on preparation for the upcoming 16th IEF Ministerial Meeting (IEF16) in New Delhi, India, including the JODI Information Seminar/Energy Data Transparency Exhibit and the Heads of JODI Partners Meeting scheduled on 10 April 2018.
The meeting also reviewed progress on:
Participation Assessment of the JODI-Oil and JODI-Gas World Databases.
Feedback since permission was granted to Data Redistribution Agencies (Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Platts) in October 2017 to republish JODI Data and increase the visibility of JODI Data.
Feedback on JODI and data transparency from G20 Ministers.
Steps on improving the availability of coal data and collection by JODI Partners. The planning of an Energy Data Transparency Portal to consolidate available coal data and resources via the JODI Website, contributing to improved global coal data transparency.
Plans for JODI Capacity Building Workshops in 2018 for Eastern European countries in Ukraine, and for Latin American countries in Ecuador.
Brainstormed ideas for future JODI Capacity Building Workshops and JODI Data User Seminars.
Update on planned improvements of the JODI Website and JODI Database.
Partners supported the plan to host the next JODI Capacity Building Workshop for Eastern European countries in Ukraine in March 2018, and a future workshop for Latin American countries during the second half of 2018.
Partners also agreed to host the JODI Data Users Seminar in New Delhi, India alongside the JODI Information Seminar associated with 16th IEF Ministerial Meeting.
JODI Partners also discussed a way forward to improve cooperation with other energy organisations who have shown interest in associating with JODI.
IEF Lecture - OFID's Nexus: Food, Water and Energy
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
IEF Lecture - OFID's Nexus: Food, Water and Energy
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
The IEF Secretary General was honoured to welcome Mr Suleiman Jasir Al-Herbish, Director General and Chief Executive Officer of the OPEC Fund for International Development (OFID) to the IEF Secretariat to present an IEF Lecture on OFID’s perspective of the Food, Water and Energy Nexus. Mr Suleiman Jasir Al-Herbish, a Saudi national, has been the Director-General and Chief Executive Officer of OFID since November 2003. He has been especially vocal on the issue of energy poverty alleviation, a cause he has championed tirelessly at the highest level and one that forms the central pillar of OFID’s strategic plan.
Mr Al-Herbish’s presentation (available for download below) shared OFID’s views on the relationship between the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goals and Sustainable Development Goals, with a focus on the food, water and energy nexus. Mr Al-Herbish discussed the intricate relationship between the nexus and how OFIDs efforts aim to enhance progress towards reaching these goals and eradicating energy poverty worldwide.
Mr Al-Herbish holds a BA in Economics and Political Science from the University of Cairo and an MA in Economics from Trinity University, San Antonio, Texas. Prior to his appointment at OFID, he served for 13 years as the Governor of Saudi Arabia at OPEC. He is currently in his third term of office at OFID, having been re-elected unanimously by the institution’s highest authority, the Ministerial Council, in June 2013.
The OPEC Fund for International Development (OFID) is the development finance institution established by the Member States of OPEC in 1976 as a collective channel of aid to the developing countries. OFID works in cooperation with developing country partners and the international donor community to stimulate economic growth and alleviate poverty in all disadvantaged regions of the world. It does this by providing financing to build essential infrastructure, strengthen social services delivery and promote productivity, competitiveness and trade. OFID’s work is people-centred, focusing on projects that meet basic needs - such as food, energy, clean water and sanitation, healthcare and education with the aim of encouraging self-reliance and inspiring hope for the future.
Saudi Green Building Forum - Green Building Outlook 2018 and Annual Meeting
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Saudi Green Building Forum - Green Building Outlook 2018 and Annual Meeting
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
In the presence of HRH Prince Khaled bin Alwaleed, Chairman of the Saudi Green Building Forum (SGBF), the IEF welcomed the SGBF Secretary General, Faisal Alfadl and delegation to present the Green Building Outlook 2018 and Annual Meeting at the IEF Secretariat on Thursday, 28 December 2017. The Saudi Green Building Forum is a professional civil society establishment and a non-government organisation in a special consultative status with the United Nations.
Delegates of the Saudi Green Building Forum (SGBF) presented a vision of market transformation for building codes and their environmental impact over time explaining the strategic imperatives necessary to build a more sustainable community. The SGBF, as a member of the LEED International Roundtable, presented LEED Technical Developments aimed at transforming new and existing buildings, expanding beyond commercial office space to become a full-scale performance based rating system providing a common global framework for green buildings. SGBF updated participants on the progress and areas for improvement of their member countries and the various programs relevant to the sustainable development of each nation. The Forum also discussed the technical issues and market barriers of different regions hindering the uptake of green building and LEED developments.
In line with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, the Saudi Green Building Forum proposed that the IEF and lecture participants of both the public and private sectors consider joining the saaf® Green Building program, performance and certification aimed at measuring the use of energy, water, waste, transportation and human experience to build more efficient and sustainable structures and habits.
The IEF, in coordination with the Saudi Green Building Forum, agreed to host the pioneer Project of the saaf® program, performance and certification at the IEF headquarters in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The saaf® program is a pilot project to SGBF leading the efforts in measuring the use of energy, water, waste, transportation and human experience with the goal of increasing energy efficiency and building more sustainable consumption habits over the long-term.
GECF Gas Summit and International Gas Seminar
Santa Cruz, Bolivia
GECF Gas Summit and International Gas Seminar
Santa Cruz, Bolivia
The IEF Secretary General, Dr Sun Xiansheng headed the IEF delegation at the 4th GECF Summit in Santa Cruz, Bolivia on 22-24 November, convened under the invitation of His Excellency Evo Morales Ayma, President of Bolivia. The Summit was attended by Heads of State, Ministers from the twelve GECF member countries and seven observer countries who gathered to exchange views on developments in the international gas market, including trends and policies which influence gas markets and its overall role in the global energy mix.
The GECF also hosted the 1st GECF International Seminar held under the umbrella of the 4th GECF Summit with the theme of Natural Gas: The Fuel of Choice for Sustainable Development. Ministers, CEOs of national and international oil and gas companies, heads of international organisations, academia and gas industry analysts engaged in a constructive dialogue on the future of natural gas. Dr Sun Xiansheng delivered remarks addressing key challenges in the natural gas market and participated in discussions on short- and long-term prospects for the gas market outlook, the security of supply and demand with a focus on Latin America, and the role of gas in reaching sustainable development goals. Discussants noted the increasingly important role of gas as the fuel of choice for the future and mitigating carbon content as the demand for energy and economic development is expected to grow over the next decade.
The 4th GECF Gas Summit resulted in the adoption of the “Declaration of Santa Cruz de la Sierra”in agreement with the GECF and its member countries. The Declaration highlights the importance of gas in energy markets, the commitment of GECF member countries to sustainable natural gas resource development and enhancing the policies and regulations of global natural gas markets. For more information, please visit the GECF website.
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