IEF Comparative Analysis

Monthly Comparative Analysis

Summary findings from an IEF comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA

View the latest report

Publication Dates 2026

Jan Thu 22nd
Feb Fri 13th
Mar Fri 13th
Apr Wed 15th
May Thu 14th
Jun Thu 18th
Jul Tue 14th
Aug Thu 13th
Sep Mon 14th
Oct Thu 15th
Nov Mon 16th
Dec Tue 15th

Add to calendar

Previous reports

No reports available at the moment.

\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-70","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":15543,"created":"2025-11-13T15:21:00","date":"2025-11-13T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"November 2025 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA.","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

Summary and Oil Market Context

Demand

OPEC maintains its global demand growth outlook unchanged at 1.3 mb/d year-on-year this year and approximately 1.4 mb/d in 2026. For 2025, OECD oil demand, OPEC expects this to grow by 0.1 mb/d, while OPEC projects non-OECD demand to rise by a more substantial 1.2 mb/d. In 2026, OECD demand is again forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d, driven primarily by OECD Americas, whereas non-OECD demand is set to expand by more than 1.2 mb/d, led by Other Asia, China, and India.

The EIA modestly raises its full-year global demand growth forecast by 0.1 mb/d for both 2025 and 2026, compared with last month’s estimate. The agency now expects global liquid fuels consumption to increase by 1.0 mb/d in 2025 and 1.1 mb/d in 2026. Growth is driven predominantly by non-OECD countries, where the EIA projects consumption to rise by 1.1 mb/d in 2025 and 1.0 mb/d in 2026. In contrast, the EIA expects OECD demand to decline by 0.1 mb/d in 2025, before registering a modest 0.1 mb/d increase in 2026.

The IEA revises its global demand growth forecast upward by 0.1 mb/d year-on-year for both 2025 and 2026, projecting an increase of 0.8 mb/d this year and a further 0.8 mb/d next year. These adjustments are driven by updated estimates for the third and fourth quarters of this year and for 2026, reflecting stronger demand in China, the United States, and Nigeria.

Forecasts from leading agencies continue to diverge, with global demand estimates varying by about 0.5 mb/d in 2025 and 0.6 mb/d in 2026.

Supply

OPEC projects non-DoC liquids production and DoC NGLs to increase by about 1.0 mb/d in 2025, reaching an average of 62.7 mb/d, with growth led by the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. This represents a modest upward revision of 0.1 mb/d from the previous assessment, reflecting updated historical data. In 2026, OPEC expects non-DoC liquids and DoC NGLs output to rise by 0.8 mb/d, averaging 63.5 mb/d, with Brazil, Canada, the United States, and Argentina remaining the principal drivers of growth.

The EIA revises its full-year growth outlook for non-DoC supply and DoC NGLs upward by 0.1 mb/d in 2025 and 0.2 mb/d in 2026 relative to last month’s assessment. The agency now expects global liquid fuels supply to rise by 2.8 mb/d in 2025 and an additional 1.4 mb/d in 2026. Growth remains highly concentrated, with Brazil, the United States, Guyana, and Canada together accounting for 75% of the increase in 2025 (1.5 mb/d) and 67% in 2026 (0.8 mb/d).

The IEA revises its non-DoC supply and DoC NGLs upward by 0.2 mb/d y/y this year and 0.1 mb/d in 2026, relative to last month’s estimates. The IEA projects global oil supply to rise by 3.1 mb/d this year, reaching 106.3 mb/d, and by a further 2.5 mb/d in 2026. In 2025, supply growth is driven by a 1.4 mb/d increase from OPEC+ and 1.7 mb/d from non-OPEC+ producers, with both groups expected to raise output by 1.3 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively, in 2026. The upward revision in global supply growth reflects stronger production from Middle Eastern OPEC+ members and key non-OPEC+ producers such as Brazil, the United States, and Canada.

\",\"

Summary of 2024-2026 Balances

The gap in global demand forecasts across agencies reaches 0.5 mb/d in 2025 and 0.6 mb/d in 2026.
EIA expects global demand to grow by 1.0 mb/d y/y this year and an additional 1.1 mb/d in 2026, reaching 105.2 mb/d.
OPEC maintains its global demand growth forecasts unchanged from last month’s estimates.

\",\"

Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions

IEA revises its global demand outlook upward this month by 0.1 mb/d year-on-year.
EIA adjusts the first three quarters of this year upward by 0.2 mb/d, driven by stronger non-OECD demand.
OPEC keeps its global demand growth forecast at 1.3 mb/d, with 0.1 mb/d from OECD and 1.2 mb/d from non-OECD regions.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

IEA adjusts its global demand growth forecast upward by 0.1 mb/d, driven by stronger non-OECD demand
OPEC maintains its global demand growth estimates steady at 1.3 mb/d y/y.
The EIA’s global demand outlook remains above all its demand-growth revisions made over the past six months.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts

IEA raises its non-OPEC growth estimate this month to 1.7 mb/d, yet it remains below last year’s projection.
EIA expects non-OPEC supply growth to reach 2 mb/d for the first time.
OPEC marginally updates its non-DoC supply growth upward to 0.9 mb/d year-on-year.

\",\"

Summary of 2026 Balances and Revisions

OPEC keeps its global demand growth forecast at 1.4 mb/d.
The EIA estimates OECD demand will rise by 0.1 mb/d y/y, while non-OECD demand increases by 1.0 mb/d.
IEA revises its non-OECD demand growth estimate upward by 0.3 mb/d for the second half of 2026.

Evolution of 2026 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

OPEC has maintained its global demand growth forecast at 1.4 mb/d for four consecutive months.
EIA has revised its global demand growth forecasts back to the levels it expected at the beginning of the year at 1 mb/d y/y.
IEA raises its global demand growth forecast to around 0.8 mb/d y/y, the highest estimate so far.

Evolution of 2026 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts

OPEC expects non-DoC supply growth to be roughly half of the IEA and EIA estimates.
IEA and EIA estimates for non-OPEC supply growth are now closely aligned.
IEA and EIA projects 1.2 mb/d year-on-year non-DoC supply growth in 2026.

\",\"

Key Charts

Page: /

Download the report

\"],\"BodyTop\":\"

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Thursday 13 November 2025

\",\"MainBottom\":\"

Download Report

\",\"Resources\":\"\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-69","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":15534,"created":"2025-10-14T16:24:00","date":"2025-10-14T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"October 2025 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA.","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

Summary and Oil Market Context

Demand

OPEC forecasts global oil demand to grow by around 1.3 mb/d y/y in 2025, with OECD consumption rising modestly by 0.1 mb/d and non-OECD demand increasing by 1.2 mb/d. In 2026, global demand continues to expand by about 1.4 mb/d, following a similar regional distribution. The 2024 review shows a strong annual increase of 1.5 mb/d, driven largely by robust economic activity in non-OECD economies, particularly China and Other Asia. In 2025, demand for refined products is led by the transport sector, with jet/kerosene, diesel, and gasoline consumption projected to rise by 380 tb/d, 300 tb/d, and 280 tb/d y/y, respectively.

EIA projects global liquid fuels demand to rise by 1.1 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026. Growth is led by non-OECD economies, which increase consumption by 1.2 mb/d in 2025 and 1.0 mb/d in 2026, while OECD demand declines by 0.1 mb/d in 2025 before rebounding by the same amount in 2026. Most of the non-OECD expansion occurs in Asia, particularly in India and China, which together add more than 0.4 mb/d of demand by 2026 relative to 2024 levels.

IEA indicates that global oil demand growth remains structurally weak, despite signs of near-term improvement. Annual gains are projected to average around 0.7 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026. The transport sector continues to underpin global consumption, with gasoil, gasoline, and jet/kerosene together accounting for nearly 60% of total demand. Despite the broader deceleration, global demand briefly strengthens in Q3 2025, rising by 750 kb/d y/y versus 420 kb/d in the prior quarter.

Forecasts from leading agencies continue to diverge, reflecting methodological and assumption-based differences, with global demand estimates varying by roughly 0.6 mb/d in 2025 and 0.7 mb/d in 2026.

Supply

OPEC projects non-DoC (countries outside the OPEC+ alliance) liquids production to grow by about 0.8 mb/d in 2025, reaching an average of 54.0 mb/d, driven primarily by the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. This projection remains consistent with the previous assessment. In 2026, non-DoC liquids output increases by a further 0.6 mb/d to average 54.6 mb/d, with the same countries continuing to lead supply growth. Crude oil production among DoC members rises by 630 tb/d in September, averaging roughly 43.05 mb/d.

EIA sees global liquid fuels production continues to expand steadily, led by countries outside the OPEC+ alliance. Non-OPEC+ producers are expected to increase output by 2.0 mb/d in 2025 and a further 0.7 mb/d in 2026, driven largely by gains in the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana. In parallel, EIA projects OPEC+ production to rise by 0.5 mb/d in 2025 and 0.6 mb/d in 2026 as members gradually unwind voluntary output cuts.

IEA sees global oil supply to continue to expand faster than previously expected, prompting an upward revision in this month’s IEA oil market report. Total production is projected to rise by 3 mb/d in 2025 to reach 106.1 mb/d, followed by an additional 2.4 mb/d increase in 2026. Non-OPEC+ producers account for the bulk of this expansion, contributing 1.6 mb/d in 2025 and 1.2 mb/d in 2026, driven primarily by strong gains in the United States, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Argentina. IEA expects OPEC+ output to rise by 1.4 mb/d in 2025 and 1.2 mb/d in 2026.

\",\"

Summary of 2024-2026 Balances

Agency projections for global oil demand growth vary between 0.7 and 1.3 mb/d in 2025, and between 0.7 and 1.4 mb/d in 2026.
Non-OECD demand growth in EIA and OPEC forecasts exceeds IEA estimates by 0.5 mb/d in 2025.
Differences in non-DoC supply and DoC NGL projections across agencies reach about 1 mb/d this year and 0.5 mb/d in 2026.

\",\"

Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions

IEA maintains its global demand growth forecast at 0.7 mb/d for 2025.
EIA projects global oil demand to grow by 1.1 mb/d y/y, reflecting an upward revision of 0.2 mb/d from last month’s assessment.
OPEC keeps its global oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 1.3 mb/d, with gains of 0.1 mb/d in OECD economies and 1.2 mb/d in non-OECD regions.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

IEA has maintained its global demand growth forecast at around 0.7 mb/d for seven consecutive months.
OPEC holds its projection steady near 1.3 mb/d, while EIA raises its estimate by 0.2 mb/d this month to 1.1 mb/d.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts

OPEC holds its non-DoC supply growth estimate steady at 0.8 mb/d y/y for the sixth straight month.
IEA revises its non-DoC supply growth forecast upward by 0.2 mb/d to 1.6 mb/d.
EIA projects non-OPEC supply growth of about 1.9 mb/d, the highest level in more than a year.

\",\"

Summary of 2026 Balances and Revisions

OPEC maintains its global demand growth forecast at 1.4 mb/d, while EIA lowers its projection by 0.2 mb/d to 1.1 mb/d.
IEA keeps its global oil demand growth forecast for next year unchanged at 0.7 mb/d.
IEA projects OECD demand to decline by 0.1 mb/d, while EIA forecasts a 0.1 mb/d increase.

Evolution of 2026 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

OPEC projects global oil demand growth in 2026 to be roughly twice the level estimated by the IEA.
EIA revises its global demand growth forecast downward by 0.2 mb/d compared with last month’s assessment.

Evolution of 2026 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts

OPEC expects non-DoC supply growth to fall short of IEA and EIA estimates by more than 0.5 mb/d.
The difference in non-OPEC supply growth estimates between the EIA and IEA declines to 0.1 mb/d from 0.4 mb/d two months earlier.

\",\"

Key Charts

Page: /

Download the report

\"],\"BodyTop\":\"

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Tuesday 14 October 2025

\",\"MainBottom\":\"

Download Report

\",\"Resources\":\"\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-68","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":15494,"created":"2025-09-11T17:07:00","date":"2025-09-11T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"September 2025 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA.","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

Summary and Oil Market Context

Demand

OPEC sees global oil demand growth of 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with OECD demand rising by 0.1 mb/d and non-OECD demand by 1.2 mb/d. In 2026, demand increases by 1.4 mb/d, split between 0.2 mb/d in the OECD and 1.2 mb/d in the non-OECD. Growth in the OECD is concentrated in the Americas, while Other Asia, China, and India drive the non-OECD expansion.

EIA projects global liquid fuels consumption to rise by 0.9 mb/d in 2025 and 1.3 mb/d in 2026, driven primarily by non-OECD countries. Non-OECD demand rises by 1.0 mb/d in 2025 and 1.1 mb/d in 2026, while OECD consumption falls by 0.1 mb/d in 2025 before rebounding by 0.2 mb/d in 2026. Growth in Asia dominates the expansion, with India and China each contributing between 0.4 and 0.5 mb/d from 2024 to 2026.

IEA's monthly outlook projects global oil demand growth of ~700 kb/d in both 2025 and 2026. The 2025 forecast rises to 740 kb/d year-on-year, slightly above previous estimates, reflecting lower oil prices and a stronger economic outlook. OECD demand remains resilient despite economic headwinds, supported by robust deliveries in the United States, Germany, Italy, and Korea. In 2026, expansion proceeds at a more moderate pace of 700 kb/d year-on-year, accompanied by a widening divergence led by non-OECD growth.

Agency projections remain divergent, with global demand estimates varying by as much as 0.6 mb/d in 2025 and 0.7 mb/d in 2026 year-on-year.

Supply

OPEC projects liquids production from countries outside the Declaration of Cooperation (non-DoC) and DoC NGLs to rise by 0.9 mb/d year-on-year in 2025, reaching an average of 62.7 mb/d. Growth is driven primarily by the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina, with the forecast unchanged from the previous assessment. In 2026, non-DoC liquids output increases by 0.7 mb/d year-on-year to average 63.4 mb/d, representing a moderate downward revision from earlier estimates. Brazil, the United States, Canada, and Argentina remain the principal sources of growth.

OPEC's analysis shows non-DoC liquids production rising by ~0.9 mb/d in 2025 to average 62.7 mb/d, driven by the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. This outlook remains unchanged from last month's assessment. In 2026, non-DoC liquids expand by a further 0.7 mb/d to 63.4 mb/d, with the same countries leading growth. NGLs and non-conventional liquids from DoC members increase by 0.1 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026, averaging 8.7 mb/d and 8.8 mb/d, respectively.

EIA projects global liquid fuels production to rise by 2.3 mb/d in 2025 and by a further 1.1 mb/d in 2026, driven by planned OPEC+ increases and strong growth outside the group. Non-OPEC+ producers contribute 1.7 mb/d in 2025 and 0.6 mb/d in 2026, led by Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and the United States. OPEC+ crude oil output expands by 0.6 mb/d in 2025 and 0.5 mb/d in 2026, as the group seeks to balance inventories and stabilize prices amid rising supply.

IEA reports that global oil supply reaches 106.9 mb/d in August, with OPEC+ raising output and non-OPEC+ production holding near peak levels. Projections place global supply at 105.8 mb/d in 2025, an increase of 2.7 mb/d, and 107.9 mb/d in 2026, an additional 2.1 mb/d. Non-OPEC+ producers contribute 1.4 mb/d in 2025 and just over 1 mb/d in 2026, while OPEC+ adds 1.3 mb/d this year and 1 mb/d in 2026.

\",\"

Summary of 2024-2026 Balances

Across agencies, demand growth spans 0.7–1.3 mb/d in 2025 and 0.7–1.4 mb/d in 2026.
Non-OECD economies account for almost all net growth in global demand.
IEA continues to project global demand growth of 0.7 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026.

\",\"

Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions

IEA slightly revises its global demand forecast upward by 40 kb/d, to 0.74 mb/d for 2025.
The EIA projects global demand growth of 0.9 mb/d y/y.
OPEC maintains its global demand growth forecast at 1.3 mb/d, with OECD demand rising by 0.1 mb/d and non-OECD demand by 1.2 mb/d.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

OPEC maintains the highest forecast for global demand growth in 2025.
IEA maintains global demand growth at ~0.7 mb/d for six consecutive months.
EIA lowers its global growth estimate by 0.1 mb/d this month, to 0.9 mb/d.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts

OPEC maintains its projection for non-DoC supply growth at 0.8 mb/d y/y for five consecutive months.
IEA and EIA narrow their differences on US supply growth after three months of divergence.
EIA maintains its non-OPEC supply growth forecast at ~1.6 mb/d for the second consecutive month.

\",\"

Summary of 2026 Balances and Revisions

OPEC projects the strongest global demand growth for 2026 at 1.4 mb/d.
EIA projects global growth of 1.3 mb/d in 2026, driven by robust non-OECD demand and consistent upward revisions to OECD demand across all quarters.
IEA maintains its global demand forecast for next year at 0.7 mb/d.

Evolution of 2026 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

OPEC projects double the global demand growth of the IEA in 2026 (1.4 mb/d vs. 0.7 mb/d).
EIA's global demand projection increases by more than 0.1 mb/d year-on-year.

Evolution of 2026 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts

IEA maintains its non-OPEC supply growth forecast at 1.2 mb/d for a second consecutive month.
EIA raises its non-OPEC supply growth estimate to 0.9 mb/d this month.
OPEC and EIA project similar US supply growth this month at ~0.1 mb/d.

\",\"

Key Charts

Page: /

Download the report

\"],\"BodyTop\":\"

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Thursday 11 September 2025

\",\"MainBottom\":\"

Download Report

\",\"Resources\":\"\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-67","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":181586,"name":"Comparative Analysis SEP 25","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-sep-25.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-sep-25.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":15492,"created":"2025-08-13T19:44:00","date":"2025-08-13T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"August 2025 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA.","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

Summary and Oil Market Context

Demand

OPEC’s latest assessment maintains its 2025 global oil demand forecast, projecting year-on-year growth of 1.3 mb/d. Minor adjustments incorporate observed data from the first two quarters. OECD demand rises by approximately 0.1 mb/d, while non-OECD demand increases by 1.2 mb/d. For 2026, global demand is projected to expand by 1.4 mb/d, an upward revision of 0.1 mb/d from the previous estimate, driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions. OECD demand is expected to grow by 0.2 mb/d, with non-OECD demand advancing by 1.2 mb/d.

The EIA’s global liquid fuels demand growth in the second half of 2025 rises by 1.6 mb/d, resulting in a faster inventory buildup of nearly 0.5 mb/d. This equals a 1.0 mb/d year-over-year increase for 2025. In 2026, oil demand grows by an additional 1.2 mb/d y/y, up 0.3 mb/d for the full year compared with last month’s assessment.

The IEA forecasts global oil demand to increase by approximately 0.7 mb/d year-on-year in 2025, reaching 103.7 mb/d. Growth in 2Q25 is driven entirely by non-OECD regions, while OECD consumption remains nearly flat, as Japan records its lowest levels in decades. The 2026 forecast shows a similar pace of expansion, with demand rising by 0.7 mb/d year-on-year to reach 104.4 mb/d.

Projections across agencies continue to diverge, with differences in global demand forecasts reaching up to 0.6 mb/d for 2025 and 0.7 mb/d for 2026 y/y.

Supply

EIA’s growth forecast for global liquid fuels production shows an average increase of 2.0 mb/d in the second half of 2025 compared with the first half of the year. This growth is driven by contributions from OPEC+ and increased output from non-OPEC producers such as the United States, Brazil, Norway, Canada, and Guyana. Non-DoC supply and DoC NGL growth increase by 0.2 mb/d y/y in 2025 but fall by 0.2 mb/d in 2026.

The IEA projects global oil supply to rise by 2.5 mb/d in 2025 and by 1.9 mb/d in 2026, with non-OPEC+ producers accounting for roughly half of the growth. It expects non-DoC supply and DoC NGLs to increase by 1.4 mb/d y/y in 2025 and by 1.2 mb/d in 2026, while non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs are forecast to expand by 1.5 mb/d in 2025 and by 1.4 mb/d in 2026.

\",\"

Summary of 2024-2026 Balances

Across agencies, demand growth ranges from 0.7 to 1.3 mb/d in 2025 and from 0.7 to 1.4 mb/d in 2026.
Non-OECD consumption accounts for the entirety of net demand gains.
IEA sees global demand growth at 0.7 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026.

\",\"

Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions

The IEA maintains its forecast for 2025 global oil demand growth at 0.7 mb/d y/y, reflecting moderate upward revisions in early-year projections.
The EIA projects global demand growth of 1.0 mb/d y/y, supported by a substantial upward revision for 2Q25.
OPEC holds global demand growth at 1.3 mb/d, with OECD up 0.1 mb/d and non-OECD up 1.2 mb/d.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

OPEC’s 2025 global demand growth forecast remains the highest.
Non-OECD demand growth remains largely unchanged in OPEC and IEA assessments, while the EIA shows a modest recovery from last month’s low.
EIA’s global growth estimate rises to 1.0 mb/d this month, rebounding from around 0.8 mb/d last month.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts

OPEC maintains its projection for non-DoC supply growth at 0.8 mb/d y/y, unchanged from last month’s assessment.
US supply growth is higher in IEA and EIA assessments, while remaining broadly flat in OPEC projections.
EIA’s non-OPEC supply forecast recovers to about 1.6 mb/d, matching August 2024 levels after mid-year declines.

\",\"

Summary of 2026 Balances and Revisions

OPEC projects the highest 2026 global demand growth at 1.4 mb/d, with modest quarterly upward revisions of 0.1–0.2 mb/d.
EIA sees 1.2 mb/d global growth in 2026, supported by consistent upward revisions across all quarters.
OECD demand remains flat or slightly negative for IEA, marginally positive for OPEC, and slightly higher for EIA.

Evolution of 2026 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

IEA’s forecast for global demand growth edged down slightly, maintaining the lowest outlook among agencies.
EIA’s projection for global demand rises by over 0.1 mb/d y/y, representing the largest upward adjustment among the three agencies.
OECD demand growth rises moderately in OPEC and EIA, while the IEA maintains a negative estimate of around −0.2 mb/d.

Evolution of 2026 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts

The gap between IEA and OPEC in non-DoC supply growth widened to about 0.4 mb/d, the largest so far this year.
IEA’s non-OPEC supply forecast has strengthened over the summer.
Despite early-year strength, the EIA’s projections now fall below the IEA’s for both non-OPEC and non-DoC supply.

\",\"

Key Charts

Page: /

Download the report

\"],\"BodyTop\":\"

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Wednesday 13 August 2025

\",\"MainBottom\":\"

Download Report

\",\"Resources\":\"\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-66","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":181577,"name":"Comparative Analysis AUG 25","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-aug-25.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-aug-25.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":15490,"created":"2025-07-15T19:43:00","date":"2025-07-15T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"July 2025 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA.","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

Summary and Oil Market Context

Demand

OPEC projects global oil demand to rise by 1.3 mb/d y/y in 2025, driven predominantly by increased consumption of transportation fuels such as jet fuel and gasoline. The growth is expected to be regionally uneven, with OECD economies contributing a marginal 0.1 mb/d and non-OECD countries accounting for the remaining 1.2 mb/d. The 2026 forecast remains unchanged, with a further 1.3 mb/d y/y increase anticipated, sustained by rising demand for mobility and petrochemical feedstocks, particularly across emerging markets.

This month, the EIA’s assessment indicates continued growth in global liquid fuels consumption, with demand rising by 0.8 mb/d in 2025 and 1.1 mb/d in 2026 y/y. This growth is driven almost entirely by non-OECD economies, where demand is expected to increase by 0.9 mb/d in 2025 and 1.0 mb/d in 2026. In contrast, OECD oil demand is set to decline modestly by 0.1 mb/d in 2025 and remain broadly unchanged the following year. The acceleration in non-OECD consumption is concentrated in Asia, with India and China contributing the largest increments to 0.5 mb/d and 0.4 mb/d, respectively, in both years.

The IEA projects global oil demand to increase by 0.7 mb/d in 2025 y/y (its slowest pace of growth since 2009, excluding the exceptional decline during the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic). The deceleration is particularly evident between the first and second quarters of 2025, with demand growth easing from 1.1 mb/d to just 550 kb/d, driven by subdued consumption in emerging markets. By 2026, global oil demand expects to rise by 720 kb/d, reaching a total of 104.4 mb/d.

Agency projections continue to diverge, with discrepancies in global demand forecasts reaching as high as 0.6 mb/d for both 2025 and 2026.

Supply

OPEC projects non-DoC liquids production to rise by 0.8 mb/d in 2025, reaching 54.0 mb/d, driven by the U.S., Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. Supply is expected to grow by another 0.7 mb/d in 2026 to 54.7 mb/d. DoC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d annually, reaching 8.6 mb/d in 2025 and 8.8 mb/d in 2026. OPEC NGLs are also set to rise by 130 tb/d in 2025 and 150 tb/d in 2026.

The EIA forecasts a notable acceleration in global liquid fuels production, with output expected to increase by 1.8 mb/d in 2025 and a further 1.1 mb/d in 2026 y/y. This expansion is predominantly driven by producers outside the OPEC+ alliance, led by the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana. Non-OPEC+ supply and OPEC NGLs is projected to rise by 1.4 mb/d in 2025 and an additional 1.0 mb/d in 2026.

The IEA forecasts global oil supply from non-OPEC producers and OPEC NGLs to reach 77.3 mb/d in 2025 and rise further to 78.5 mb/d in 2026, reflecting year-on-year increases of 1.5 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively. Supply growth remains broad-based but moderate, with upward revisions in the latter half of 2025 and steady quarterly gains throughout 2026, from 78.2 mb/d in Q1 to 78.7 mb/d by year-end. In parallel, non-DoC supply and DoC NGLs are projected to increase from 62.8 mb/d in 2025 to 63.9 mb/d in 2026.

\",\"

Summary of 2024-2026 Balances

OPEC maintains a robust global demand outlook for 2025 and 2026, forecasting y/y growth of 1.3 mb/d in both years, consistently above IEA and EIA estimates.
The IEA projects global oil demand to rise modestly, reaching 103.7 mb/d in 2025 and 104.4 mb/d in 2026, with growth driven entirely by non-OECD countries.
The EIA sees global oil demand to grow by 0.8 mb/d in 2025 and accelerate to 1.1 mb/d in 2026, reaching 104.6 mb/d.

\",\"

Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions

The IEA sees steady global oil demand growth of 0.7 mb/d in 2025 y/y, driven entirely by rising consumption in non-OECD economies.
OPEC expects non-DoC supply and DoC NGLs to grow by 0.9 mb/d y/y.
EIA projects non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs to rise by 1.4 mb/d in 2025 y/y, reaching 77.5 mb/d.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

OPEC continues to hold the most optimistic outlook for global oil demand growth, despite recent downward revisions to its projections.
Both EIA and IEA maintain a flat-to-slightly-negative outlook for OECD demand.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts

Both IEA and EIA revise their 2025 non-OPEC supply growth slightly upward, converging around 1.4 mb/d
IEA’s forecasts for US supply growth remain relatively stable compared to last month’s assessment.
OPEC has revised down its 2025 non-DoC supply growth forecast by over 0.3 mb/d since early 2025.

\",\"

Summary of 2026 Balances and Revisions

OPEC maintains the highest forecast for 2026 global oil demand at 106.4 mb/d, with non-OECD demand contributing 1.2 mb/d to overall growth y/y, well above IEA and EIA estimates.
IEA’s non-DoC supply and DoC NGLs are projected to grow by 1.1 mb/d in 2026.
EIA expects non-OECD demand to expand steadily, increasing by 1.0 mb/d in 2026, while OECD demand remains flat.

Evolution of 2026 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

OPEC maintains the highest and most stable global demand growth forecast for 2026.
IEA keeps its global demand growth near 0.7 mb/d, with OECD demand declining by 0.2 mb/d.
The EIA maintains its global demand forecast above 1.0 mb/d, supported by stable non-OECD growth.

Evolution of 2026 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts

EIA raises its non-DoC supply growth forecast this month to around 1.0 mb/d y/y.
IEA revises non-OPEC supply growth upward to 1.0 mb/d y/y this month.
OPEC's non-DoC supply growth forecast has remained relatively stable.

\",\"

Key Charts

Page: /

Download the report

\"],\"BodyTop\":\"

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Tuesday 15 July 2025

\",\"MainBottom\":\"

Download Report

\",\"Resources\":\"\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-65","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":181581,"name":"Comparative Analysis JUL 25","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-jul-25.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-jul-25.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":15487,"created":"2025-06-17T19:51:00","date":"2025-06-17T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"June 2025 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA.","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

Summary and Oil Market Context

Demand

OPEC projects global oil demand to rise by 1.3 mb/d y/y in both 2025 and 2026. Stronger-than-expected economic activity in the first half of 2025, driven by robust performance in India, China, and Brazil, has lifted the global GDP growth forecast to 2.9% for the year. Easing trade tensions, particularly through agreements involving the US and key partners, are expected to reduce uncertainty and support oil consumption in the second half of 2025.

The EIA projects global liquid fuels consumption to increase by 0.8 mb/d in 2025 and 1.1 mb/d in 2026 y/y, with growth concentrated in non-OECD countries. Non-OECD demand is expected to rise by 0.9 mb/d in 2025 and 1.0 mb/d in 2026 y/y, while OECD consumption remains broadly stable over the forecast period.

The IEA forecasts global oil demand to rise by approximately 0.7 mb/d in 2025 y/y, slightly below last month’s estimate due to weaker-than-expected second-quarter deliveries in the United States and China. In 2026, demand growth is also expected to remain around 0.7 mb/d y/y.

A clear divergence persists across agencies, with forecast gaps reaching up to 0.6 mb/d for both 2025 and 2026.

Supply

OPEC projects non-DoC liquids supply and DoC NGLs to grow by approximately 0.9 mb/d year-on-year in 2025, reaching an average of 62.4 mb/d in 2025, led by the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. The 2026 forecast reflects a slight downward revision, with supply expected to increase by 0.9 mb/d to an average of 63.3 mb/d. Angola is anticipated to record the most decline, while the same four countries remain the key drivers of production growth.

The EIA maintains its 2025 growth forecast for non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs at approximately 1.3 mb/d, reaching a total of 77.3 mb/d—unchanged from last month’s assessment. For 2026, the EIA has revised its growth forecast downward to 0.7 mb/d, bringing the total to 78.1 mb/d. It also projects non-DoC supply and DoC NGLs to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025 and 0.7 mb/d in 2026, y/y.

The IEA forecasts non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs to increase by 1.5 mb/d in 2025 and 1.1 mb/d in 2026, year-on-year. For non-DoC supply and DoC NGLs, the IEA projects growth of approximately 1.3 mb/d in 2025 and 1.0 mb/d in 2026.

\",\"

Summary of 2024-2026 Balances

OPEC maintains its projection of a 1.3 mb/d year-on-year increase in global oil demand for both 2025 and 2026.
The EIA projects year-on-year growth in non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs of 1.3 mb/d in 2025 and 0.7 mb/d y/y in 2026.
The IEA forecasts global demand growth of 0.7 mb/d y/y/ in both 2025 and 2026.

\",\"

Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions

OPEC maintains a stronger outlook for global oil demand, projecting year-on-year growth of 1.3 mb/d in 2025, compared to 0.7 mb/d from the IEA and 0.8 mb/d from the EIA.
Both the IEA and EIA project robust supply growth from non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs, with increases of 1.3-1.5 mb/d year-on-year in 2025.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

OPEC maintains the most optimistic outlook for 2026 oil demand growth, despite a narrowing range among agencies.
The EIA revised its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast downward by ~0.2 mb/d, bringing the estimate to 0.8 mb/d y/y.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts

OPEC has maintained its 2025 non-DoC supply growth forecast at 0.8 mb/d year-on-year.
The IEA forecasts US supply growth at 0.5 mb/d, nearly double the EIA’s estimate.

\",\"

Summary of 2026 Balances and Revisions

OPEC forecasts global oil demand at 106.4 mb/d in 2026, with year-on-year growth of 1.3 mb/d.
The IEA projects a 0.2 mb/d contraction in OECD demand, while OPEC and EIA show flat to modest growth.

Evolution of 2026 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

Global demand growth forecasts stabilize, with OPEC maintaining the highest outlook.
The EIA revised its 2026 projections upward by ~0.1 mb/d, while the IEA and OPEC showed stable forecasts with no significant changes.

Evolution of 2026 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts

The EIA revised down its supply growth forecasts significantly.
The three agencies are now showing greater convergence around non-DoC supply growth.

\",\"

Key Charts

Page: /

Download the report

\"],\"BodyTop\":\"

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Tuesday 17 June 2025

\",\"MainBottom\":\"

Download Report

\",\"Resources\":\"\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-64","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":181582,"name":"Comparative Analysis JUN 25","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-jun-25.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-jun-25.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":15466,"created":"2025-05-15T17:01:00","date":"2025-05-15T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"May 2025 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA.","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

Summary and Oil Market Context

Demand

OPEC has maintained its global oil demand growth forecast unchanged in its latest assessment, projecting year-on-year growth of approximately 1.3 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026. Demand in OECD countries is expected to rise modestly by 0.1 mb/d in each year, while non-OECD regions—accounting for the bulk of the growth—are projected to see an increase of 1.2 mb/d annually over the same period.

The EIA has revised its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast upward by 0.1 mb/d compared to the previous month, projecting year-on-year growth of 1.0 mb/d. However, this represents a downward revision of 0.4 mb/d relative to the January 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). For 2026, the EIA anticipates a further deceleration in global demand growth to 0.9 mb/d. Regionally, India’s fuel demand is projected to increase by 0.2 mb/d in 2025 and 0.3 mb/d in 2026, while China’s consumption is projected to rise by 0.2 mb/d in both years.

The IEA forecasts global oil demand growth of 0.7 mb/d y/y in 2025, despite an expected decline in OECD consumption of approximately 120 kb/d. For 2026, the IEA sees global demand growth of 0.8 mb/d y/y. Newly available data released by the IEA also indicate an average annual increase in global oil demand of approximately 0.3 mb/d between 2022 and 2024.

The gap across agencies in global oil demand growth forecasts stands at 0.6 mb/d for 2025 and 0.5 mb/d for 2026, year-on-year.

Supply

OPEC projects a year-on-year growth of 0.9 mb/d in non-Declaration of Cooperation (non-DoC) liquids production and DoC NGLs in 2025, representing a downward revision of 0.1 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment. For 2026, growth is also projected at 0.9 mb/d y/y. The projected supply expansion is primarily driven by the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina in both years.

The EIA projects year-on-year growth of 1.3 mb/d in non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs in 2025, followed by 1.2 mb/d in 2026. For non-DoC supply and DoC NGLs, EIA estimates growth of 1.4 mb/d in 2025—down by 0.1 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment—and projects growth of 1.0 mb/d in 2026.

The IEA has maintained its forecast for non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs growth at 1.4 mb/d year-on-year in 2025, alongside an unchanged estimate of 1.3 mb/d for non-DoC supply and DoC NGLs. For 2026, the IEA projects continued growth of approximately 1.0 mb/d in both non-OPEC and non-DoC supply, representing a downward revision of 0.1 mb/d year-on-year for each category.

\",\"

Summary of 2024-2026 Balances

OPEC has maintained its forecast for global oil demand to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) year-on-year in both 2025 and 2026.
Non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs may grow by 1.3 mb/d and 1.4 mb/d y/y in 2025, according to projections from the EIA and IEA, respectively.

\",\"

Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions

OPEC sees global oil demand to grow by 1.3 mb/d year-on-year in 2025, primarily driven by growth in non-OECD countries.
The IEA has revised its global oil demand growth forecast upward by 0.4 mb/d for the full year.
The EIA projects non-DoC supply and DoC NGLs to grow by 1.4 mb/d year-on-year in 2025.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

OPEC maintained its global oil demand growth forecast at 1.3 mb/d y/y this month, following a downward revision in the previous month driven by updated data and expected changes in trade flows.
The EIA projects global oil demand to grow by approximately 1.0 mb/d y/y in 2025.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

OPEC reports a further downward revision this month in its non-DoC supply growth, lowering the estimates by around 0.1 mb/d y/y.
EIA projects non-OPEC supply to grow by 1.2 mb/d y/y in 2025.
The divergence between OPEC and IEA estimates for non-DoC supply growth is more than 0.4 mb/d.

\",\"

Summary of 2026 Balances and Revisions

OPEC projects global oil demand to grow by 1.3 mb/d y/y in 2026.
The EIA forecasts non-OECD oil demand to grow by 1.0 mb/d in 2026.
The IEA has revised its third-quarter 2026 forecast upward by 0.6 mb/d.

Evolution of 2026 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

OPEC has maintained its estimate for global oil demand growth at 1.3 mb/d y/y for the second consecutive month.
IEA and EIA estimates for non-OECD demand growth show strong alignment.

Evolution of 2026 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

The EIA maintained its non-DoC supply growth forecast largely unchanged in this month’s assessment.
The gap between IEA and EIA projections is widening, with a difference of 0.3 mb/d, compared to ~ 0.2 mb/d in the previous revision.

\",\"

Key Charts

Page: /

Download the report

\"],\"BodyTop\":\"

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Thursday 15 May 2025

\",\"MainBottom\":\"

Download Report

\",\"Resources\":\"\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-63","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":182713,"name":"Comparative Analysis MAY 25","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-may-25.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-may-25.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":15458,"created":"2025-04-15T20:20:00","date":"2025-04-15T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"April 2025 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA.","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

Summary and Oil Market Context

Demand

OPEC lowers its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 1.3 mb/d year-on-year, citing newly received data and uncertainty surrounding international trade. It also projects a moderate decline in global demand growth for 2026, down by 0.1 mb/d to 1.3 mb/d y/y. Most of this growth comes from non-OECD countries, contributing 1.2 mb/d y/y, while OECD countries are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d y/y.

The EIA sees significant adjustments in 2025, with global demand growth ~0.4 mb/d lower year-over-year compared to last month’s assessment. Despite this major reduction in demand, the EIA still projects a 0.9 mb/d year-over-year increase. For 2026, the EIA expects global oil demand to grow by 1 mb/d, which is 0.1 mb/d lower than last month’s estimate. However, the EIA notes that its forecasts are subject to major changes, primarily related to global GDP growth and international trade.

The IEA revises its global oil demand growth forecast downward by 0.3 mb/d to 0.7 mb/d year-on-year for 2025, due to expected changes in international trade. It also expects global oil demand to grow by approximately 0.7 mb/d in 2026. The agency notes that risks to these forecasts remain for both years, and that the estimates may change depending on developments related to trade policy and economic growth.

Supply

OPEC revises its forecast for non-DoC liquids production and DoC NGLs growth for 2025 to 1.0 mb/d y/y, down from 1.1 mb/d in last month’s assessment. It also notes a 0.1 mb/d y/y decline in non-DoC liquid production and DoC NGLs growth for 2026. This growth is primarily driven by the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina in both years.

EIA forecasts that non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs supply growth decline by 0.2 mb/d year-over-year in both 2025 and 2026, reaching 1.3 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively. This growth is primarily supported by countries outside OPEC+, including the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana. EIA also projects a 0.2 mb/d decline in its 1.4 mb/d growth estimate for non-DoC supply and DoC NGLs in 2025, and with the same decline projected in 2026, this brings supply growth to 1.0 mb/d.

The IEA projects non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs to reach 77.1 mb/d for the full year of 2025, with forecasted growth of up to 1.4 mb/d year-on-year. It also estimates that growth will reach 1.1 mb/d y/y in 2026. Additionally, the IEA expects its non-DoC supply and DoC NGLs to grow by 1.3 mb/d and 1.1 mb/d y/y in 2025 and 2026, respectively.

The three agencies have revised down their forecasts for global demand due to uncertainty in global trade and economic growth, cautioning that these projections are subject to change based on future developments in international trade and economic conditions.

\",\"

Summary of 2024 Balances and Revisions

Despite ongoing uncertainty in economic growth and trade, OPEC expects global oil demand to increase by 1.3 mb/d year-on-year in 2025 and 2026.
The divergence in global demand growth estimates across the three agencies is approximately 0.6 mb/d year-on-year in both 2025 and 2026.

Evolution of 2024 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

The IEA has slightly revised its global demand growth estimate downward to about 0.81 million barrels per day year-over-year.
The EIA has lowered its OECD demand growth estimates by over 100 kb/d.

Evolution of 2024 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

EIA's non-DoC supply growth shows a modest downward trend.
The gap between the EIA and IEA estimates for non-OPEC supply growth exceeds 0.3 mb/d.

\",\"

Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions

OPEC expects global oil demand to grow by 1.3 mb/d year-on-year in 2025, despite uncertainty surrounding economic growth and trade.
EIA sees its global demand growth forecast for 2025 declining by 0.4 mb/d to 0.9 mb/d y/y, driven by uncertainty about economic growth and trade.
The IEA revised down its global demand growth forecasts by 0.3 mb/d year-on-year, relative to last month's assessment

Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

OPEC adjusted its forecast for global oil demand growth to 1.3 mb/d year-on-year, driven by newly received data and expected changes in trade.
EIA revises its global demand growth forecast downward by 0.4 mb/d to 0.9 mb/d year-over-year, compared to last month’s assessment.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

OPEC adjusts its non-DoC liquids supply growth forecast downward by 0.1 mb/d to 0.9 mb/d y/y.
EIA's non-DoC supply growth forecast shows a decline of about 0.2 mb/d y/y.

\",\"

Summary of 2026 Balances and Revisions

OPEC revises its forecast for global oil demand growth, lowering it by 0.1 mb/d to 1.3 mb/d y/y.
The EIA lowers its global demand growth forecast by 0.1 mb/d, bringing it to 1 mb/d y/y.
The IEA forecasts global demand growth of 0.7 mb/d year-on-year for 2026.

\",\"

Key Charts

Page: /

Download the report

\"],\"BodyTop\":\"

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Tuesday 15 April 2025

\",\"MainBottom\":\"

Download Report

\",\"Resources\":\"\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-62","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":181576,"name":"Comparative Analysis APR 25","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-apr-25.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-apr-25.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":15448,"created":"2025-03-13T17:33:00","date":"2025-03-13T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"March 2025 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA.","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

Summary and Oil Market Context

Demand

OPEC has maintained its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 at approximately 1.4 mb/d for the fourth consecutive month. For 2026, global demand is projected to continue at the same pace, with a forecasted global demand growth of 1.4 mb/d. The OECD sees demand increasing by 0.1 mb/d and non-OECD by approximately 1.3 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026.

The EIA has revised its global oil demand growth forecast downward by 0.1 mb/d to 1.3 mb/d y/y for 2025, compared to last month's assessment. For 2026, the forecast indicates an increase in global demand growth by 0.1 mb/d to 1.2 mb/d y/y, driven by rising demand from non-OECD Asia. Transportation demand in India is expected to lead the growth in liquid fuels consumption, with an increase of 0.3 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026. China's liquid fuels demand growth is forecast to rise by approximately 0.3 mb/d in 2025 and 0.2 mb/d in 2026.

The IEA has adjusted its global oil demand growth forecast downward by 0.1 mb/d to 1.0 mb/d y/y for 2025, an increase from 830 kb/d in 2024. Around 60% of this year's growth will be driven by Chinese petrochemical feedstocks. OECD demand growth sees a decline of 0.1 mb/d y/y, while non-OECD demand growth increases by 1.1 mb/d y/y.

Supply

OPEC has maintained its forecast for non-DoC liquids production and DoC NGLs growth, keeping it unchanged at approximately 1.1 mb/d year-on-year for both 2025 and 2026. This growth is primarily driven by the United States, Brazil, and Canada in both years. The average non-DoC liquids supply and DoC NGLs are projected to be around 62.6 mb/d in 2025 and approximately 63.7 mb/d in 2026.

The EIA has maintained its forecast for non-OPEC supply growth unchanged at 1.5 mb/d y/y for 2025 relative to last month's assessment, while increasing the 2026 forecast growth by 0.1 mb/d to 1.4 mb/d y/y. The EIA has revised down the forecast growth of non-DoC supply by 0.1 mb/d to 1.6 mb/d y/y. For 2026, the growth forecast of non-DoC supply will increase by more than 0.1 mb/d to 1.2 mb/d y/y. The growth from countries outside OPEC+ will drive production growth, mainly from the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana. The US has maintained its crude production forecast at 13.6 mb/d for 2025 while increasing its production forecast by 0.1 mb/d to 13.8 mb/d for 2026, relative to last month's estimates.

The IEA's non-DoC liquid supply growth forecast for 2025 sees an increase of 0.1 mb/d to 1.5 mb/d y/y, relative to last month's assessment. The non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs forecast from the IEA also shows an increase of 0.1 mb/d to 1.6 mb/d y/y.

The divergence across the three agencies for Non-Doc supply and DoC NGLs is approximately 0.5 mb/d y/y.

\",\"

Summary of 2024 Balances and Revisions

The IEA lowered its global demand growth forecasts slightly from around 0.9 mb/d last month to 0.8 mb/d year-over-year.
The EIA has revised its growth estimates for global demand upward by 0.1 mb/d to 1.0 mb/d y/y.

Evolution of 2024 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

Global demand growth estimates from the IEA declined slightly to about 0.83 million barrels per day year-over-year.
The EIA has adjusted its growth estimates for OECD demand upward by more than 50 kb/d.

Evolution of 2024 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

Non-DoC supply growth for EIA and OPEC shows a moderate declining pattern.
The divergence between the EIA and the IEA in non-OPEC supply growth exceeds 0.3 mb/d.

\",\"

Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions

OPEC has maintained its projection for global oil demand growth in 2025 at 1.4 mb/d y/y and expects the average global demand to be about 105.2 mb/d.
Global demand growth forecasts from the EIA decline by 0.1 mb/d to 1.3 mb/d y/y, driven by a decline from OECD demand.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

OPEC maintains its global oil demand growth forecast at approximately 1.4 mb/d y/y for fourth consecutive months.
Non-OECD demand growth forecasts from the EIA were kept unchanged. OECD demand growth declined by around 0.1 mb/d.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

OPEC has maintained its non-DoC liquids supply growth at approximately 1.0 mb/d y/y.
Non-Doc supply growth forecasts from the EIA have declined for the second consecutive month.

\",\"

Summary of 2026 Balances and Revisions

OPEC has kept its global oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 1.4 mb/d y/y for 2026.
The EIA has revised its global demand growth forecast upward by more than 0.1 mb/d to 1.2 mb/d y/y.

\",\"

Key Charts

Page: /

Download the report

\"],\"BodyTop\":\"

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Thursday 13 March 2025

\",\"MainBottom\":\"

Download Report

\",\"Resources\":\"\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-61","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":181583,"name":"Comparative Analysis MAR 25","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-mar-25.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-mar-25.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":15429,"created":"2025-02-13T17:46:00","date":"2025-02-13T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"February 2025 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA.","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

Summary and Oil Market Context

Demand

OPEC has maintained its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 at 1.4 mb/d, with the OECD expected to see demand increase by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD by approximately 1.3 mb/d. At 1.4 mb/din 2026, this growth is projected to continue at the same pace, driven primarily by demand from non-OECD countries.

The EIA has revised its global oil demand growth forecast upward by approximately 0.1 mb/d to 1.4 mb/d year-over-year for 2025, while lowering its growth forecast for 2026 by around 0.1 mb/d to 1.0 mb/d year-over-year, relative to last month's assessment. Despite this growth, it remains below pre-pandemic trajectories. India is expected to increase its demand by 0.3 million b/d in both 2025 and 2026, compared to a growth of 0.2 mb/d in 2024.

The IEA has kept its global oil demand growth forecast unchanged for the full year of 2024 and 2025 at 0.9 mb/d and 1.1 mb/d, respectively. This growth will be driven by China, India, and other emerging economies in Asia, while OECD countries' oil demand maintains relatively flat in both 2024 and 2025.

Supply

OPEC revised down its non-DoC liquids production and DoC NGLs growth forecast by approximately 0.1 mb/d in 2025 to a year-over-year growth of 1.1 mb/d. This growth is led by the US, Brazil, Canada, and Norway. The non-DoC liquids supply and DoC NGLs growth in 2026 is also forecast to grow by 1.1 mb/d y/y, 0.1 mb/d lower than last month's assessment. The main growth drivers in 2026 are the US, Brazil, and Canada, while Norway sees a large decline.

The EIA projections revised non-OPEC supply growth in 2025 upward by approximately 0.2 mb/d for the full year in 2025, while showing an increase of 0.3 mb/d in 2026. The growth, outside OPEC+, will be driven by the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana. US crude production sees an increase of 0.1 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026, reaching 13.6 mb/d and 13.7 mb/d respectively.

The IEA's non-DoC and non-OPEC liquid supply growth forecasts for 2024 remain unchanged y/y. For 2025, the IEA projects a decline of 0.1 mb/d in both non-OPEC and non-DoC supply growth, reaching 1.5 mb/d and 1.4 mb/d, respectively. This growth is primarily driven by the United States, Canada, and Guyana.

\",\"

Summary of 2024 Balances and Revisions

IEA revised its global demand growth forecasts downward by 0.1 mb/d to 0.9 mb/d year-over-year, relative to last month's assessment.
The EIA has adjusted its estimate for non-OPEC supply growth upward by 0.2 mb/d for the full year of 2024.

Evolution of 2024 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

Divergence in estimates of global demand growth is mainly driven by varying estimates of demand growth in non-OECD countries, where the difference exceeds 0.5 mb/d.
Among non-OECD countries, the gap in agencies' forecasts for China's demand growth ranges from approximately 0.1 to 0.2 mb/d.

Evolution of 2024 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

A gap of approximately 0.3 mb/d gap exists between the EIA and IEA's non-OPEC supply growth forecasts.
Agencies continue to show more alignment on US supply growth forecasts.

\",\"

Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions

OPEC has maintained its projection for global oil demand growth in 2025, expecting an increase of 1.4 mb/d y/y, unchanged from last month's assessment.
The IEA has increased its global oil demand growth projection for 2025 by 0.1 mb/d y/y, with the adjustment primarily reflecting revised estimates for the second and third quarters of the year.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

OPEC maintains its global oil demand growth forecast at approximately 1.4 mb/d y/y for three consecutive months.
IEA slightly increases its forecast of non-OECD demand growth to approximately 1.14 mb/d year-over-year, with an increase of 40 kb/d relative to last month's assessment.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

OPEC revised down its non-DoC supply and DoC NGLs growth by approximately 0.1 mb/d y/y.
The IEA and EIA project almost similar estimates for non-OPEC supply growth at around 1.43-1.47 mb/d year-on-year, respectively

\",\"

Summary of 2026 Balances and Revisions

OPEC's forecasts indicate that global oil demand will remain unchanged at 1.4 mb/d y/y for 2026, driven by growth in non-OECD demand.
Compared to last month's assessment, the EIA's non-OPEC supply forecast sees a 0.3 mb/d increase for the full year of 2026, to 78.9 mb/d.

\",\"

Key Charts

Page: /

Download the report

\"],\"BodyTop\":\"

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Thursday 13 February 2025

\",\"MainBottom\":\"

Download Report

\",\"Resources\":\"\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-60","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":181579,"name":"Comparative Analysis FEB 25","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-feb-25.png","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-feb-25.png","fileExt":"png","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":15422,"created":"2025-01-16T15:44:00","date":"2025-01-16T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"January 2025 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA.","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

Summary and Oil Market Context

Demand

OPEC has maintained its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 at 1.4 million barrels per day (mb/d), while projecting demand growth in 2026 to reach 1.4 mb/d year-over-year. Most of this growth (approximately 1.3 mb/d) is expected to be driven by non-OECD countries.

The EIA has kept its global oil demand growth forecast unchanged at approximately 1.3 million barrels per day (b/d) year-over-year for 2025. This robust oil demand growth is expected to continue in 2026, reaching 1.1 million b/d year-over-year. However, this growth is less than the pre-pandemic 10-year average (2010–2019) of 1.5 million b/d.

The IEA has revised up its estimates of global oil demand growth for the fourth quarter of 2024 by approximately 0.26 mb/d, compared to the previous month's revision. Global oil demand growth for 2024 is now assessed at 0.94 mb/d, with an acceleration to 1.05 mb/d expected in 2025 as the economic outlook improves marginally.

Supply

OPEC maintained its non-DoC liquids supply growth forecast for 2025 at 1.2 mb/d y/y, unchanged from last month's assessment. The non-DoC liquids supply growth in 2026 is also forecast to grow by 1.2 mb/d. The main growth drivers are expected to be the US, Brazil, and Canada in both years.

The EIA projections for non-DoC supply growth in 2025 are expected to reach approximately 1.7 mb/d year-over-year, while the growth forecast for 2026 is projected to reach 0.9 mb/d y/y. The EIA has also maintained its crude oil production forecast for the US at 13.5 mb/d for 2025 and projects it to moderately increase to 13.6 mb/d by 2026.

The IEA projects non-DoC supply growth to reach 1.5 mb/d y/y by 2025, reaching 62.9 mb/d, while its estimate of non-OPEC supply growth is approximately 1.7 mb/d y/y.

The three agencies' forecasts for non-DoC supply growth show divergence in 2025, with a projected difference of 0.5 million barrels per day year-over-year.

\",\"

Summary of 2024 Balances and Revisions

The IEA has adjusted its forecast of global oil demand growth for Q4 2024 upward by 0.3 mb/d, which has driven the year-over-year estimate to modestly increase by 0.1 mb/d.
The EIA has revised its estimate of global demand growth for the full year of 2024 downward by 0.3 mb/d, driven by adjusted estimates from non-OECD countries.

Evolution of 2024 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

The gap between OPEC’s growth estimates and IEA and EIA assessments of global demand remains above 0.5 mb/d y/y, with the rate of growth in an overall declining trend.
The divergence in estimates of global demand originates from different estimates of non-OECD demand growth.

Evolution of 2024 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

The divergence in non-OPEC supply growth forecasts between the EIA and IEA has widened, now exceeding 0.3 mb/d, in contrast to the minimal differences observed in June of the previous year.
Estimates developed by the three energy agencies are more aligned on US supply growth forecasts.

\",\"

Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions

OPEC adjusted its projections for global demand growth downward by 0.1 mb/d for the full year in 2025, primarily due to a decrease in anticipated growth from non-OECD nations, while y/y estimate remains unchanged at 1.4 mb/d.
The IEA has revised its global demand growth forecast upward by approximately 0.1 mb/d for the full year of 2025, while the EIA revised its forecast downward by 0.2 mb/d.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

OPEC has maintained its global demand growth forecast unchanged at 1.45 mb/d y/y.
Both the EIA and IEA revised down their non-OECD demand growth forecasts by approximately 0.1 mb/d y/y.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

The forecasts for US supply growth across agencies are more aligned.
The EIA and IEA both adjusted their forecasts for non-OPEC supply growth downward for the second consecutive month.

\",\"

Summary of 2026 Balances and Revisions

OPEC forecasts that global oil demand will grow by 1.4 mb/d y/y in 2026, while the EIA projects an increase of 1.1 mb/d for the same period.
The growth in global oil demand in 2026 will be driven by demand from non-OECD nations.

\",\"

Key Charts

Page: /

Download the report

\"],\"BodyTop\":\"

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Thursday 16 January 2025

\",\"MainBottom\":\"

Download Report

\",\"Resources\":\"\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-59","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":181580,"name":"Comparative Analysis JAN 25","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-jan-25.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-jan-25.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":15395,"created":"2024-12-13T08:55:00","date":"2024-12-13T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"December 2024 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA.","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

Summary and Oil Market Context

Demand

OPEC has revised its global oil demand growth estimate downward by more than 0.2 mb/d to 1.6 mb/d for 2024 year-on-year (y/y), for the fifth consecutive month. Similarly, OPEC has also revised down its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast by approximately 0.1 mb/d to 1.4 mb/d y/y. These adjustments are due to the updated quarterly statistics of this year. These revisions have reduced the gap in global oil demand between the IEA and EIA to 0.8 mb/d y/y for 2024 and 0.3 mb/d y/y for 2025.

The EIA has also revised its global demand growth forecasts down by 0.1 mb/d y/y for 2024 to 0.9 mb/d, while it has revised its 2025 demand growth estimates up by 0.1 mb/d to 1.3 mb/d y/y. India is projected to increase its demand for liquid fuels by 0.2 mb/d in 2024 and by more than 0.3 mb/d in 2025, primarily due to the expected rise in demand from the transportation sector

The IEA has slightly revised down its global oil demand growth for this year to approximately 0.8 mb/d in 2024 y/y, while keeping its global demand growth forecasts unchanged for the full year of 2024. This adjustment is due to weaker-than-expected demand from major consumers in non-OECD countries. However, the forecasted global demand for 2025 shows an increase of 0.1 mb/d year-over-year, reaching 1.1 mb/d in 2025.

Supply

OPEC has revised its projections for non-Declaration of Cooperation (non-DoC) oil supply growth upward by 0.1 mb/d for the full year of 2024, with approximately a similar increase expected for the full year of 2025. This growth trend is primarily driven by the robust production capabilities of the United States and Canada in both forecast periods.

The EIA has kept its projections for non-DoC supply growth unchanged for the full year of 2024, while increasing it by 0.1 mb/d for the full year of 2025. Similarly, the EIA has muted its forecasts for Non-OPEC supply growth for this year but revised down its 2025 growth forecasts by 0.1 mb/d year-on-year. The EIA has also maintained its crude oil production forecast for the US at 13.2 mb/d for 2024 and 13.5 mb/d for 2025.

The IEA has kept its supply growth forecasts for non-DoC unchanged for both 2024 and 2025 y/y. For non-OPEC, it has maintained its supply growth forecasts for 2024 y/y and revised the 2025 growth forecasts downward by 0.1 mb/d y/y

The gap in non-DoC supply growth forecasts among these three agencies is projected to reach 0.1 mb/d y/y for 2024 and 0.4 mb/d y/y for 2025

\",\"

Summary of 2023-2025 Balances

OPEC has adjusted its global oil demand growth projections downward for the fifth successive month, impacting both 2024 and 2025 outlooks. The organization has reduced its 2024 growth forecast by approximately 0.2 mb/d to 1.6 mb/d y/y. For the full year of 2025, OPEC has revised down its global demand growth estimate by 0.3 mb/d.
The IEA has kept its forecast for global demand growth for the full years of 2024 while increasing the 2025 forecasts by 0.1 mb/d.
The divergence in global oil demand growth estimates among the three agencies has narrowed, with a variation of approximately 0.8 mb/d expected for y/y growth in 2024 and 0.3 mb/d in 2025.

OPEC has revised its projections for non-OECD oil demand growth downward for both the full year 2024 and 2025 by 0.2 mb/d and 0.3 mb/d, respectively.
The EIA has adjusted its global demand growth forecasts downward by 0.1 mb/d for the full year 2024, while it has revised its forecasts for 2025 upward by 0.1 mb/d y/y.
The IEA has revised its forecasts for global demand growth downward by 0.1 mb/d y/y, while it has revised the forecast upward by 0.1 mb/d for 2025 y/y.

\",\"

Summary of 2024 Balances and Revisions

OPEC has revised its global demand growth forecasts for the second and third quarters of 2024 by 0.2 mb/d and 0.6 mb/d, respectively, due to updated statistics. This has influenced the full-year growth projection to be reduced by 0.2 mb/d.
The EIA and IEA have revised their global demand growth forecasts downward by approximately 0.1 mb/d y/y.

Evolution of 2024 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

OPEC has revised its projections for global oil demand growth in 2024 downward for the fifth consecutive month, reducing it by approximately 0.2 mb/d due to newly received data.
The projections from the three agencies regarding the OECD are more aligned compared to those for the non-OECD, where the gap remains over 0.5 mb/d, despite the recent reduction from OPEC.

Evolution of 2024 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

The divergence in non-OPEC supply growth between the EIA and IEA is currently about 0.2 mb/d, compared to the marginal differences observed last June.
The IEA, OPEC, and EIA continue to display strong alignment regarding US supply growth in recent months.

\",\"

Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions

OPEC revised its forecasts for global demand growth down by 0.3 mb/d for the full year in 2025, driven by a reduction in non-OECD demand growth.
The IEA has revised its global non-OPEC supply growth forecast upward by approximately 0.1 mb/d for the full year of 2025.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

OPEC has revised its global demand growth forecast downward for the fifth consecutive month by approximately 0.1 mb/d y/y, bringing it to 1.4 mb/d y/y.
The three agencies have narrowed their non-OECD demand growth forecasts from approximately 0.6 mb/d y/y in April of this year to less than 0.2 mb/d this month.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

The EIA and IEA both adjusted their forecasts of non-OPEC supply growth downward.
The US supply growth forecasts between the IEA and EIA are widening, with the gap reaching 0.2 mb/d this month.

\",\"

Key Charts

Page: /

Download the report

\"],\"BodyTop\":\"

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Friday 13 December 2024

\",\"MainBottom\":\"

Download Report

\",\"Resources\":\"\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-58","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":169830,"name":"Comparative Analysis DEC 24","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-dec-24.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-dec-24.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":15387,"created":"2024-11-14T16:13:00","date":"2024-11-14T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"November 2024 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA.","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

Summary and Oil Market Context

Demand

The EIA has revised its global demand growth projections, increasing its 2024 year-over-year (y/y) estimate by 0.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) to reach 1.0 mb/d, while simultaneously adjusting its 2025 demand growth estimates downward by approximately 0.1 mb/d to 1.2 mb/d y/y. India emerges as a pivotal driver of this growth, accounting for a quarter of the total global consumption growth in both years. Despite these adjustments, the EIA notes that the projected growth rates for 2024 and 2025 remain below the 10-year average of 1.5 mb/d annual growth.

OPEC has revised its global oil demand growth estimate downward by approximately 0.1 mb/d to 1.8 mb/d for 2024 y/y. Similarly, OPEC has lowered its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast by 0.1 mb/d to 1.5 mb/d y/y. These updated adjustments are attributed to the integration of actual data gathered. Despite these revisions, OPEC's forecast remains significantly higher than the projections provided by the IEA and EIA for 2024, exceeding them by more than 0.8 mb/d.

The IEA has kept its global demand growth forecasts unchanged for the full years of 2024 and 2025. However, year-on-year growth forecasts have been revised upward by approximately 0.1 for 2024, based on revisions to the 2023 data.

Though the divergence in global demand growth forecasts across the three agencies has narrowed, differences for 2024 still reach 0.9 mb/d y/y and 0.5 mb/d for 2025 y/y.

Supply

OPEC has retained its projections for non-Declaration of Cooperation (non-DoC or non-OPEC plus) oil supply growth, expecting an increase of approximately 1.3 mb/d in 2024 and 1.2 mb/d in 2025. This sustained growth trajectory is predominantly attributed to the robust production capabilities of the US and Canada in both forecast periods.

The EIA has revised its projections for non-OPEC supply growth upward by 0.1 mb/d y/y to 0.8 mb/d, with a further rise in 2025 by 0.2 mb/d to 1.6 mb/d y/y. The EIA has also increased its non-DoC supply growth forecast by approximately 0.1 mb/d for the full year of 2024 and by 0.2 mb/d for the full year of 2025. The EIA's short-term supply forecasts indicate that US crude oil production will grow by 0.3 mb/d to 13.2 mb/d in 2024 y/y and by another 0.3 mb/d, reaching 13.5 mb/d in 2025 y/y.

The divergence in short-term non-DoC supply growth forecasts among these three entities is projected to reach 0.2 mb/d y/y for 2024 and 0.4 mb/d y/y for 2025.

\",\"

Summary of 2023-2025 Balances

OPEC has adjusted its global oil demand growth projections downward for the fourth successive month, impacting both 2024 and 2025 outlooks. The organization has reduced its 2024 growth forecast by approximately 0.1 mb/d to 1.8 mb/d y/y. Similarly, for 2025, OPEC has lowered its demand growth estimate by 0.1 mb/d, resulting in a new projection of 1.5 mb/d y/y, down from the earlier prediction of 1.6 mb/d.
The disparity in global oil demand growth estimates among the three agencies has narrowed, with a variation of less than 0.9 mb/d expected for y/y figures in 2024 and 0.5 mb/d in 2025 y/y.
The IEA has kept its forecast for global demand growth for the full years of 2024 and 2025 unchanged.

The EIA has revised its global demand forecasts upward by 0.1 mb/d for the full year 2024, while it has maintained its forecasts for the full year 2025 unchanged.
The IEA has kept its forecasts for demand growth in both OECD and non-OECD approximately unchanged for 2024 and 2025 y/y.
OPEC has adjusted its projections for non-OECD oil demand growth downward for both the full year 2024 and 2025 by 0.1 mb/d and 0.2 mb/d, respectively.

\",\"

Summary of 2024 Balances and Revisions

OPEC has adjusted its global demand growth forecast downward by 0.1 mb/d to 1.8 mb/d y/y, down from 1.9 mb/d in last month's revision.
The EIA and IEA have revised their global demand growth forecasts upward by approximately 0.1 mb/d y/y.

Evolution of 2024 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

OPEC has revised its projections for global oil demand growth in 2024 for the fourth consecutive month, reducing it by approximately 0.1 mb/d based on newly received data.
The EIA has adjusted its global demand growth forecast upward by approximately 0.1 mb/d.
The IEA has increased its global demand forecasts for 2024 y/y by approximately 0.1 mb/d, driven by a modest rise in demand from both non-OECD and OECD.

Evolution of 2024 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

The EIA has raised its forecast for non-OPEC supply growth by 0.1 mb/d y/y.
The IEA, OPEC, and EIA continue to display strong alignment regarding US supply growth in recent months compared to their estimates at the beginning of this year, with the gap declining from more than half a million barrels per day to less than 0.1 mb/d.

\",\"

Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions

OPEC revised its forecasts for global demand growth down by 0.2 mb/d for the full year in 2025, driven by a reduction in non-OECD demand growth.
The EIA has revised its global non-OPEC supply growth forecast upward by approximately 0.3 mb/d for the full year of 2025.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

The EIA has revised its global demand growth forecast downward for the fourth consecutive month by approximately 0.1 mb/d y/y to 1.2 mb/d y/y.
OPEC has adjusted its global oil demand growth forecast downward by about 0.1 mb/d y/y.
The IEA has maintained its global demand growth for 2025 unchanged y/y.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

EIA and IEA both forecast a rise in non-OPEC supply growth, but the gap remains more than 200 tb/d.
The three agencies have kept their US supply growth almost unchanged.

\",\"

Key Charts

Page: /

Download the report

\"],\"BodyTop\":\"

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Thursday 14 November 2024

\",\"MainBottom\":\"

Download Report

\",\"Resources\":\"\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-57","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":169837,"name":"Comparative Analysis NOV 24","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-nov-24.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-nov-24.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":15361,"created":"2024-10-15T16:07:00","date":"2024-10-15T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"October 2024 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA.","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

Summary and Oil Market Context

Demand

EIA has adjusted its global demand growth forecast downward by 0.2 mb/d in the third quarter and 0.1 mb/d in the fourth quarter of 2024, while also revising down the full-year growth for 2025 by 0.2 mb/d. This reduction is largely driven by adjustments to OECD demand and a decrease in Chinese fuel consumption. The EIA observed that despite the announcement of Chinese monetary stimulus measures supported by the government, concerns are still reflected in the short-term forecasts.

OPEC has adjusted its global demand growth projection downward by approximately 0.1 mb/d to 1.9 mb/d for 2024 year-on year (y/y) and has also reduced its 2025 global demand growth forecast by 0.1 mb/d to 1.6 mb/d y/y. These revised modifications are due to incorporating real data collected along with reduced projections for certain areas. However, this forecast remains substantially higher, by one million barrels per day, than the estimates provided by the IEA and EIA for 2024.

The IEA has revised its global demand growth forecasts down by 0.1 mb/d for the full year 2024 and by the same amount for the full year in 2025. However, year-on-year growth forecasts have remained unchanged for both 2024 and 2025, driven by IEA’s subdued projections for growth in China this year, which accounts for 20% of the total gains, compared to 70% in 2023.

The divergence in global demand growth forecasts across the three agencies for 2025 shows more alignment than the 2024 forecasts, with 2025 differences reaching 0.6 mb/d y/y compared to around one million for 2024 y/y.

Supply

OPEC has maintained its oil supply growth forecasts for non-Declaration of Cooperation (non-DoC) at approximately 1.3 mb/d for 2024 and 1.2 mb/d for 2025, y/y. This growth is primarily driven by the United States, Canada, and Brazil in both years, while OPEC anticipates a decline in supply from Angola in 2025.

The EIA has revised its projections for non-OPEC supply growth downward by 0.1 mb/d y/y to 0.7 mb/d, with a further decline in 2025 by 0.1 mb/d to 1.4 mb/d y/y. In contrast, the EIA has increased its non-DoC supply growth forecast by 0.1 mb/d for the full year of 2024 but has muted the forecasts for 2025 compared to last month's assessment. The EIA's short-term supply forecasts indicate that, at this time, there is currently substantial spare capacity available, which could be activated in the event of supply disruptions.

The IEA has kept its supply growth forecasts for non-DoC and non-OPEC unchanged. The divergence in short-term non-DoC supply growth forecasts among these three entities is expected to reach 0.2 mb/d for 2024 y/y and 0.4 mb/d for 2025 y/y.

Oil market volatility

Oil market volatility increased this month, driven by Hurricane Milton's impact, and mixed macroeconomic and geopolitical signals regarding global oil demand trajectories and potential supply disruptions, respectively. However, despite further military escalation in Europe and the Middle East where risk to energy infrastructure and trade routes are manifest and persist, perception of a relatively well supplied market and lower demand growth moderate market responses so far.

\",\"

Summary of 2023-2025 Balances

OPEC has revised its global oil demand growth forecasts downward for the third consecutive month, affecting both 2024 and 2025 projections. For 2024, the growth estimate has been adjusted down by approximately 0.1 bpd to 1.9 bpd y/y. Similarly, for 2025, OPEC has lowered its demand growth estimate by 0.1 bpd, bringing it down to 1.64 million bpd y/y from the previously anticipated 1.74 mb/d.
Despite this reduction in OPEC's projections this month, the disparity in global oil demand growth estimates among the three agencies remains considerable, with a variation of one million barrels per day anticipated for y/y figures in 2024.
The IEA has maintained its forecast for global demand growth for 2024 at 0.9 mb/d year-over-year.

The EIA has maintained its global demand growth forecasts unchanged for the full year 2024, with the decline in 3Q and 4Q was offset by an upward revision in 2Q. For 2025, EIA has revised down its global demand growth forecast by 0.2 mb/d for the full year.
The IEA has kept its OECD demand growth forecasts unchanged for both 2024 and 2025 y/y, while it has revised down its non-OECD demand growth forecast by 0.2 mb/d for the full year in 2024 and by 0.1 mb/d for the full year in 2025.
OPEC revised its non-OECD demand growth downward for the full years 2024 and 2025 by 0.1 mb/d and 0.2 mb/d, respectively.

\",\"

Summary of 2024 Balances and Revisions

OPEC has adjusted its global demand growth forecast downward by 0.1 mb/d to 1.9 mb/d y/y, down from 2.0 mb/d in last month's revision.
The EIA and IEA have kept their global demand growth forecasts unchanged y/y.

Evolution of 2024 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

OPEC has adjusted its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024, reducing it by approximately 0.1 mb/d based on newly acquired data.
The EIA has maintained its global demand growth forecast for 2024 unchanged.
The IEA has made a modest decline in its global demand forecasts, with the decrease in non-OECD demand offset by an increase in OECD demand.

Evolution of 2024 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

The EIA has downgraded its forecast for non-OPEC supply growth for the fifth consecutive month, reducing it by approximately 0.1 mb/d y/y.
The IEA, OPEC, and EIA continue to display strong alignment regarding U.S. supply growth in recent months, compared to their estimates at the beginning of this year.

\",\"

Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions

OPEC revised its forecasts for global demand growth down by 0.2 mb/d for the full year in 2025, driven by a reduction in non-OECD demand growth and lower expectations for some regions.
The EIA has revised its global demand growth forecast downward by approximately 0.2 mb/d y/y.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

The EIA has revised its global demand growth forecast downward for the third consecutive month by more than 0.2 mb/d y/y, bringing it to approximately 1.3 mb/d y/y.
OPEC has adjusted its global oil demand growth forecast downward; however, it remains 0.6 mb/d higher than the IEA estimates.
The IEA has almost maintained its global demand growth for 2025 unchanged y/y.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

The gap in non-OPEC supply growth projections between the IEA and EIA has approached nearly 0.29 mb/d y/y, with the EIA continuing to implement its downward adjustments.
The EIA has adjusted its forecast for U.S. oil supply growth from being approximately 70% higher than the estimates developed by OPEC a few months ago to less than OPEC's forecasts in this month's assessment.

\",\"

Key Charts

Page: /

Download the report

\"],\"BodyTop\":\"

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Tuesday 15 October 2024

\",\"MainBottom\":\"

Download Report

\",\"Resources\":\"\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-56","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":169838,"name":"Comparative Analysis OCT 24","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-oct-24.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-oct-24.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":15345,"created":"2024-09-12T16:16:00","date":"2024-09-13T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"September 2024 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA.","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

Summary and Oil Market Context

Demand

OPEC has slightly adjusted its global demand growth projection downward by approximately 0.1 mb/d to 2 mb/d for 2024 year-over-year. However, this forecast remains substantially higher, by over a million barrels per day, than the estimates provided by the IEA and EIA. The EIA is also revising its global demand growth forecast downward by 0.2 mb/d for 2024 year-over-year. In contrast, the IEA has maintained its global demand growth forecasts unchanged for 2024 y/y. OPEC has also revised downward its growth forecast for 2025 by a modest 40 tb/d. The divergence in global demand growth forecasts across the three agencies for 2025 is approximately 0.7 mb/d year-over-year.

Supply

OPEC has kept its projections for non-Declaration of Cooperation (non-DoC) oil supply growth unchanged at around 1.3 mb/d in 2024 y/y and 1.2 mb/d in 2025 y/y. The EIA has also maintained its forecasts for non-OPEC supply growth for both 2024 and 2025 unchanged at 0.8 mb/d y/y and 1.6 mb/d for 2024 y/y and 2025 y/y, respectively. The IEA has kept its non-DoC supply growth projections unchanged for 2024 y/y while projecting a downward revision of 0.1 mb/d to 1.6 mb/d for 2025 y/y. The divergence among the short-term non-DoC supply growth forecasts from these three organizations is expected to reach 0.2 mb/d for 2024 y/y and 0.4 mb/d for 2025 y/y.

Energy supply and demand: Challenges in a volatile market

Members of the OPEC+ alliance decided to extend voluntary cuts on September 5th reportedly postponing their planned increase in oil production by 180 tb/d in October to maintain oil market stability. This decision is part of a broader strategy to gradually reintegrate a total of 2.2 mb/d of voluntary production cuts into the market over the coming months. The next meeting of the JMMC will be held on October 2nd, and then OPEC+ ministers will hold a full meeting of the group on December 1st.

Beyond weakening economic trends and oil inventory build, disruptions remain a significant risk to the global energy balance. Recent oil production outages in Libya have led to temporary loss of approximately half a million barrels per day.

\",\"

Summary of 2023-2025 Balances

OPEC has revised slightly its global demand growth forecast down to 2.0 mb/d for 2024 year-over-year, marking the second consecutive downward revision this year. For 2025, the forecast has also been adjusted for the first time to 1.7 mb/d, down from 1.8 mb/d in the previous month's revision.
Despite this modest decrease from OPEC this month, the divergence in global demand growth forecasts remains significant among the three agencies, with a difference of over one million barrels per day for 2024.
The IEA has maintained its forecast for global demand growth for 2024 and 2025 at 0.9 mb/d year-over-year and 1 mb/d year-over-year, respectively.

The EIA has revised its forecasts for global demand upward by 0.1 mb/d for the full year 2024, driven by non-OECD demand growth, while keeping its forecasts for 2025 unchanged.
The IEA has revised its OECD demand growth forecasts upward by 0.1 mb/d for both 2024 and 2025 year-over-year, while revising down its non-OECD growth forecast by 0.1 mb/d year-over-year for both years.
OPEC revised its non-DoC supply growth upward for the full years 2024 and 2025 by 0.1 mb/d each year.

\",\"

Summary of 2024 Balances and Revisions

OPEC has revised down its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 by 0.1 mb/d to 2.0 mb/d year-on-year.
The EIA has revised up its global demand growth by 0.1 mb/d for the full year in 2024, while the IEA has kept its global demand growth forecast unchanged.

Evolution of 2024 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

OPEC has revised down its global oil demand growth by approximately 80 tb/d in 2024, informed by new data received.
The EIA's global demand growth forecast shows a downward revision of nearly 0.2 mb/d year-on-year.
The IEA has kept its global demand forecasts unchanged, with the decline in Non-OECD demand offset by an increase in OECD demand.

Evolution of 2024 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

The EIA's year-on-year growth in non-OPEC supply has been revised down for the fourth consecutive month.
The divergence between the IEA's and EIA's forecast for US supply growth declined to less than 0.15 mb/d, down from 0.2 mb/d in last month's revision.

\",\"

Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions

The divergence in global oil demand growth forecasts among major agencies remains significant, despite this month's downward revisions.
Although OPEC has slightly revised its estimate downward for global demand, its levels remain approximately 0.7 mb/d above the IEA projections y/y and 0.2 mb/d higher than those of the EIA y/y.
The EIA has revised its global demand growth forecast downward by approximately 0.1 mb/d y/y.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

OPEC has slightly revised its global demand growth forecast downward (~40 tb/d) for the second time this year.
Despite the relative downward revision by OPEC, its global demand growth forecast is still 0.7 mb/d greater than the IEA's projections.
The IEA has almost maintained its global demand growth for 2025 unchanged.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

The divergence between IEA's and EIA's non-OPEC supply growth forecasts reached almost 0.2 mb/d, with the IEA maintaining its upward revision.
The IEA's forecast for US oil supply growth exceeded the EIA's and OPEC's forecasts for the first time this year.

\",\"

Key Charts

Page: /

Download the report

\"],\"BodyTop\":\"

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Friday 13 September 2024

\",\"MainBottom\":\"

Download Report

\",\"Resources\":\"\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-55","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":169839,"name":"Comparative Analysis SEPT 24","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-sept-24.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-sept-24.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":15338,"created":"2024-08-14T10:56:00","date":"2024-08-14T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"August 2024 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA.","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

Summary and Oil Market Context

Demand

Forecasts for short-term global oil consumption have slightly reduced divergence compared to last month. OPEC has revised its global demand growth down by 0.1 mb/d to 2.1 mb/d for 2024 y/y for the first time this year, but its forecasts are still higher by more than a million barrels a day compared to the IEA and EIA. This slight revision by OPEC features real data collected for the first quarter of 2024 and, in certain instances, the second quarter of 2024. Additionally, it reflects a modest decrease in growth expectations for Chinese oil demand in 2024. In contrast, the IEA and EIA expect global demand growth of 0.9 mb/d and 1.1 mb/d, respectively, for the same year. OPEC has almost maintained its forecast growth for 2025 at 1.8 mb/d, while the EIA has revised its estimates down by 0.2 mb/d to 1.6 mb/d, compared to the 1.8 mb/d growth in last month’s estimates. The IEA has also revised down its global demand growth forecasts by about 0.1 mb/d for 2024 y/y, while keeping the 2025 forecast unchanged.

Supply

OPEC has maintained its forecast of oil supply growth from non-Declaration of Cooperation (non-DoC) countries at around 1.3 mb/d in 2024, and kept its forecast growth for 2025 at 1.1 mb/d y/y. The growth is primarily fueled by production increases in Brazil, the US, and Canada during both years. The EIA has kept its forecasts for non-OPEC supply growth at 0.8 mb/d for 2024 y/y, while slightly downgrading the 2025 growth estimate by 0.1 mb/d to 1.6 mb/d y/y. Meanwhile, the IEA has maintained its non-DoC supply growth projections at 1.5 mb/d for 2024 y/y, while revising its supply growth forecast upward by 0.1 mb/d to 1.7 mb/d in 2025 y/y. The disparity among the short-term non-DoC supply growth forecasts from these three organizations is expected to reach 0.2 mb/d for 2024 and 0.6 mb/d for 2025.

Economic Growth (GDP) and Oil Demand

The recently released economic forecasts of the OECD, IMF, and World Bank indicate notable growth disparities for 2025 that underscore uncertainty in relation to economic growth and oil demand. The OECD and IMF project a steady growth trajectory at 3.21 percent and 3.2 percent respectively, while the World Bank gives a more cautious outlook for 2025 at 2.7 percent. Energy demand growth remains closely aligned with GDP growth mainly in developing and emerging economies. Although economic recessions typically result in temporary declines in oil demand, historical trends suggest that these impacts are limited and rapidly offset by sustained increases in oil demand. This rebound is often driven by factors such as low prices, opportunities to replenish commercial and strategic stocks or demand support from monetary and fiscal policies, including quantitative easing. Over the past two decades, global oil demand estimates from the IEA and EIA have consistently exceeded those from OPEC. However, since the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, increasingly ambitious assumptions regarding oil demand substitution - fueled by rapid advancements in clean technologies and efficiency improvements - have gained traction, potentially reversing this trend (see below).

Compound Oil Market Volatility

Oil markets are exposed to multiple layers of uncertainty manifest in diverging economic and oil demand outlooks, broadening military conflicts in both the Middle East and Europe, recent stock market corrections affecting short and long oil futures positions, and the uncertain outcome of US Elections on energy and climate policy. Digital disruptions, and data dependency of monetary policy further cloud oil markets stability. Though a soft landing is still considered more probable than a global downturn, risk and uncertainty prevail and can easily shift consensus.

\",\"

Summary of 2023-2025 Balances

OPEC has revised its global demand growth down to 2.1 mb/d for 2024 y/y for the first time this year, from 2.2 mb/d in the last revision, while maintaining its forecast for 2025.
Despite the slight revision down from OPEC this month, the divergence in global demand growth forecasts is still high across the three agencies, with more than a million barrels per day difference in 2024.
The EIA has kept its forecast for global demand growth this year at 1.1 mb/d while downgrading its forecast by approximately 0.2 mb/d to 1.6 mb/d for 2025 y/y.

The EIA has revised up its forecasts for OECD demand by 0.1 mb/d for 2024 y/y, and this increase was offset by a downward revision in growth from non-OECD countries, which kept global demand unchanged. The EIA’s 2025 global demand growth forecast shows a downward revision of 0.2 mb/d y/y.
The IEA has revised down its global demand growth forecasts by 0.1 mb/d for both the full year 2024 and the full year 2025.
OPEC released its forecasts with no change in non-DoC supply growth for 2024 and 2025 y/y.

\",\"

Summary of 2024 Balances and Revisions

OPEC has revised down its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 by 0.1 mb/d, bringing the new projection to 2.1 mb/d y/y. This marks the first time OPEC has cut its 2024 global demand growth estimate this year, although its forecasts remain higher by more than a million barrels a day compared to the projections from the IEA and EIA.
EIA has revised up its OECD demand growth by 0.1 mb/d for the full year in 2024, while the IEA kept its growth forecast unchanged.

Evolution of 2024 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

OPEC has revised down its global oil demand growth in 2024 for the first time this year, driven by new data collection and slightly slower expectations for Chinese oil demand growth.
The EIA's 2024 global demand growth forecast shows an upward revision for the fourth consecutive month, driven by an increase in OECD demand this month.
IEA revised its global demand growth forecast for 2024 by 0.1 mb/d y/y.

Evolution of 2024 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

The EIA’s y/y growth in non-OPEC supply has been revised down for the third consecutive month.
The IEA's forecast for US supply growth is still approximately 0.2 mb/d higher than those forecasted by OPEC and the EIA.

\",\"

Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions

The divergence in global oil demand growth forecasts among major agencies remains significant, despite this month’s downward revision by the EIA.
Although OPEC has slightly revised its estimate downward for global demand, its levels remain approximately 0.8 mb/d above the IEA projections and 0.2 mb/d higher than those of the EIA.
The EIA has revised its global demand growth forecast downward by approximately 0.2 mb/d y/y

Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

OPEC has revised its global demand growth forecast downward for the first time this year.
Despite the downward revision by OPEC, its global demand growth forecasts is still 0.8 mb/d higher than the IEA’s projections.
IEA has revised its global demand growth forecasts downward for the third consecutive month.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

The EIA has kept its non-OPEC supply growth forecasts almost unchanged y/y and is now aligning more closely with the IEA's projections.
The EIA's forecast for the US oil supply growth is still 0.21 mb/d stronger than that developed by OPEC, despite its downward revision.

\",\"

Key Charts

Page: /

Download the report

\"],\"BodyTop\":\"

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Wednesday 14 August 2024

\",\"MainBottom\":\"

Download Report

\",\"Resources\":\"\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-54","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":169829,"name":"Comparative Analysis AUG 24","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-aug-24.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-aug-24.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":15314,"created":"2024-07-12T13:28:00","date":"2024-07-12T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"July 2024 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA.","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

Oil Market Context

Key points

Demand

Projections for near-term worldwide oil consumption still vary widely, underscoring oil demand uncertainties. OPEC continues to project 2.2 mb/d oil demand growth in 2024 y/y. The IEA and EIA, in contrast, predict 1 mb/d and 1.1 mb/d demand growth for 2024, respectively. Both OPEC and EIA estimate global oil demand to grow by approximately 1.8 mb/d in 2025 y/y. The demand growth forecasts of the three organizations for 2025 range from 1 mb/d to 1.8 mb/d.

Supply

OPEC predicts non-DoC oil supply to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2024 y/y and 1.1 mb/d in 2025 y/y driven by the US, Brazil, and Canada in both years. US crude oil production is expected to grow from 13.2 mb/d in 2024 to 13.8 mb/d in 2025, according to EIA. The EIA has reduced its forecast for non-OPEC supply growth by 0.2 mb/d to 0.8 mb/d in 2024 y/y, in comparison to last month, while keeping its supply growth forecasts for 2025 at 1.7 mb/d y/y. The IEA revised its non-DoC supply growth forecasts upwards by 0.1 mb/d for full year 2025, while keeping its estimates for 2024 unchanged. The range between the three organizations' short-term non-Doc supply growth forecasts is expected to reach 0.3 mb/d in 2024 y/y and 0.5 in 2025 y/y.

Policy

Gasoline consumption in the transport sectors is a key determinant of oil demand trajectories. On July 5, tariffs imposed by the European Commission on electric vehicle imports from China to level the playing field among car manufacturers entered in effect, provisionally. Without a resolution found over the next four months, the measure adds to other producer-consumer initiatives to shield and stimulate national industries. These may well delay transitioning away from fossil fuels in a just, orderly, and equitable manner, rather than accelerate action as governments agreed at the Dubai COP28 UN Climate Conference.

Risks

Though macroeconomic indicators have steadied, risks to global energy security remain elevated. Conflict and geopolitical tensions persist, involving attacks on critical energy infrastructure and supply chains, including maritime shipping lanes. The Red Sea shipping crisis continues, while the easing of restrictions in the Panama Canal is expected to increase traffic in the coming months. While oil market concerns over hurricane Beryl in the Gulf of Mexico have eased, it is still early in the hurricane season.

\",\"

Summary of 2023-2025 Balances

The divergence in global demand forecasts is still high across IEA, EIA and OPEC assessments, with a range of approximately 1.2 mb/d projected for 2024 y/y, and 0.8 mb/d expected for 2025 y/y.
OPEC has kept its global oil demand growth forecast unchanged compared to last month's assessment for both 2024 and 2025.
The EIA has kept its forecast for global demand growth this year at 1.1 mb/d, while increasing its forecast by ~0.2 mb/d to ~1.8 mb/d in 2025 y/y.

The EIA kept its Q3 and Q4 2024 demand forecasts with no change, while revising down the full year 2024 forecast by 0.1 mb/d. The 2025 demand growth forecast shows an upward revision of 0.1 mb/d in 1Q25 and 0.2 mb/d from 2Q25 through 4Q25.
IEA has revised down its non-OECD demand growth forecasts by 0.2 mb/d for the full year 2024 and 0.3 mb/d for the full year in 2025.
OPEC released its forecasts with almost no change in global demand assessments for the second month.

\",\"

2024 Outlook Comparison

Summary of 2024 Balances and Revisions

OPEC has maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 y/y. OPEC demand growth projections remain more than double the growth rates predicted by the IEA and EIA in 2024.
EIA and OPEC have revised up their non-OECD demand growth by 0.1 mb/d from 2Q24 through 4Q24, while the IEA revised down their forecast for the same period by 0.2 mb/d
OPEC revised downward its OECD demand growth forecast by 0.2 mb/d for the full year in 2024 while IEA revised

Evolution of 2024 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

The EIA's 2024 global demand growth forecast shows a modest upward revision, based on an upward revision to non-OECD demand.
OPEC has maintained its position of stable global demand growth, with the downward revision by the OECD being offset by the upward from non-OECD countries.
IEA revised its global demand evolution for 2024 y/y slightly upwards in this month's assessment.

Evolution of 2024 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

The EIA's year-on-year growth in non-OPEC supply is revised down by ~ 0.1 mb/d.
EIA still shows the strongest 2024 non-DoC supply growth, in comparison to the other agencies, at more than 1.57 mb/d.
The IEA's forecast for US supply growth is still approximately 1.5 times those projected by OPEC and up to 190 kb/d higher than those projected by EIA.

\",\"

Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions

The disparity in global oil demand forecasts among major agencies is still remarkable, despite the upward revision of the EIA this month.
OPEC's estimate for global demand levels is 2.3 million mb/d higher compared to the IEA projections.
The EIA has made an upward revision to global demand with an increase of ~0.2 mb/d y/y.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

EIA has significantly revised its global demand growth forecast up by more than 0.2 mb/d, nearly reaching OPEC's estimates.
OPEC's and EIA's 2025 global demand growth forecast is ~0.8 mb/d higher than the IEA's, due to higher projections for demand growth in non-OECD regions and others.
IEA's global demand growth forecasts have been revised downward for the second month in a row.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

The EIA has kept its non-OPEC supply growth forecasts almost unchanged y/y and is now aligning more closely with the IEA's projections.
The EIA's forecast for the US oil supply growth is still 0.21 mb/d stronger than that developed by OPEC, despite its downward revision.

\",\"

Key Charts

Page: /

Download the report

\"],\"BodyTop\":\"

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Friday 12 July 2024

\",\"MainBottom\":\"

Download Report

\",\"Resources\":\"\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-53","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":169833,"name":"Comparative Analysis JULY 24","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-july-24.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-july-24.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":15286,"created":"2024-06-12T13:37:00","date":"2024-06-12T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"June 2024 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA.","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

Oil Market Context

Key points

Demand

Short-term global oil demand forecasts continue to diverge reflecting growing uncertainty. OPEC projects 2.2 mb/d oil demand growth this year. The IEA and EIA, in contrast, predict 1 mb/d and 1.1 mb/d demand growth for 2024, respectively. The demand growth forecasts of the three organizations for 2025 range from 1.0 mb/d to 1.8 mb/d.

Supply

Non-DoC oil supply growth is forecasted to slow slightly from ~2.7 mb/d in 2023 to around 1.4-1.7 mb/d in 2024. The range between the three organizations supply forecasts is 0.4 mb/d in 2025. OPEC predicts non-DoC oil supply will grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2024 and 1.1 mb/d in 2025 driven by the US, Brazil, Canada, and Norway in both years. The EIA has kept their forecasts for non-OPEC supply growth at 2.4 mb/d in 2023 and 1 mb/d this year, accelerating to 1.7 mb/d in 2025, while the IEA revised up its non-OPEC supply forecasts for 2023, 2024 and 2025 by 0.1 mb/d.

Policy

The 37th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting took place on Sunday, June 2nd. Seeking to maintain oil market stability, the OPEC+ group agreed to extend the additional voluntary 2.2 mb/d cut until the end of September and then incrementally phase out this cut every month, subject to market conditions, from October 2024 until September 2025. Other collective official cuts and voluntary measures by individual members, amounting to 3.66 mb/d, were extended until the end of 2025. Total cuts still amount to 5.86 mb/d, currently.

Market responses appear to anticipate a gradual increase in supply from October. However, a multitude of mixed signals given by diverging global demand growth forecasts, macroeconomic indicators and interest rate policies cast uncertainty on how market conditions will evolve.

Risks

Supply chain disruptions, caused by conflict, geopolitical tensions, major accidents or maintenance have elevated energy security risks. A shutdown of a Norwegian gas pipeline to the EU, lead Northwest European gas prices to spike. Maintenance at a gas field in the East Mediterranean aggravated gas market shortages in the region.

\",\"

Summary of 2023-2025 Balances

The divergence in global demand forecasts is shrinking marginally compared to previous months across IEA, EIA and OPEC assessments, with a range of approximately 1.2 mb/d projected for 2024, and a range of 0.8 mb/d expected for 2025.
IEA and EIA have kept their forecasts for non-OPEC supply at ~2.4 mb/d in 2023 to 1 mb/d this year, accelerating to 1.7 mb/d in 2025.
IEA and EIA see the Call on DoC falling in 2024 by 0.5-0.6 mb/d, while OPEC continues to see a significant increase of 0.9 mb/d y/y.

OPEC released their forecasts with almost no change in global demand assessments, in comparison to last month's estimates. EIA revised up their forecasts for the second half of this year and next year while IEA revised their forecasts down by 0.1 mb/d in 2024 y/y and 0.2 mb/d in 2025.
The EIA revised to its Q3 and Q4 2024 global demand forecast up by 0.2 mb/d and revised up the full year 2024 by 0.1 mb/d. The 2025 demand growth forecast shows also an upward revision of 0.3 mb/d.

\",\"

2024 Outlook Comparison

Summary of 2024 Balances and Revisions

OPEC's 2024 global demand growth forecast remains largely unchanged this month and is still more than two times higher than that of the IEA and EIA, largely due to a stronger non-OECD demand outlook.
OPEC revised downward their Non-DoC supply by 0.3 mb/d the 4Q 2024, while EIA and IEA revised upward by 0.1 mb/d.

Evolution of 2024 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

While OPEC has left its demand growth assessments unaltered, the EIA's 2024 global demand growth forecast shows a modest upward revision, based on a relatively stable position for OECD demand and a more significant upward revision to non-OECD demand.
IEA lowered its global demand growth for a third consecutive month.

Evolution of 2024 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

The EIA's year-on-year growth in non-OPEC supply has been revised higher for a third consecutive month, yet it remains below IEA's.
EIA sees the strongest 2024 non-DoC growth at more than 1.6 mb/d.
The IEA's forecast for US supply growth is still approximately 1.5 times those projected by OPEC and up to 150,000 b/d higher than those projected by EIA.

\",\"

Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions

The divergence in global oil demand forecasts among major agencies remains striking. OPEC's estimate for global demand levels is still approximately 2 million mb/d higher compared to the IEA and EIA projections.
The EIA has made an upward revision to global demand with an increase of 0.3 mb/d m/m.

\",\"

Key Charts

Page: /

Download the report

\"],\"BodyTop\":\"

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Wednesday 12 June 2024

\",\"MainBottom\":\"

Download Report

\",\"Resources\":\"\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-52","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":169834,"name":"Comparative Analysis JUNE 24","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-june-24.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-june-24.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":15225,"created":"2024-05-17T10:50:00","date":"2024-05-17T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"May 2024 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA.","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

Oil Market Context

Dynamics in the Oil Market: From Geopolitical Risks to Supply Cuts and Price Movements

Brent front month prices have fallen by nearly $7 over the past month to ~$83/bbl as money managers shed bullish positions amid economic concerns and despite continued elevated geopolitical risk. Fund managers have been net sellers of petroleum derivatives for the past four consecutive weeks and, in the week ending on May 7, there was the largest net sale of crude futures and options in more than a year.

The market remains concerned about global economic growth with persistent inflation and the US Fed's decision to keep interest rates steady. There is also growing concern about fragile diesel demand following a mild winter in the northern hemisphere and a slowdown in industrial activity in Europe and Asia. Refining margins for diesel have halved from early-February’s levels and European and US diesel futures markets have been trading in contango since mid-April.

However, there have also been some positive signals for oil demand over the past month. The IMF revised up its global GDP forecast for 2024 in mid-April. Additionally, China’s 1Q24 headline GDP came in at 5.3% y/y, exceeding analysts' expectations of 4.6%. China’s oil imports in April were up more than 5.4% y/y.

The uncertainty in global demand continues to be reflected in the short-term oil demand forecasts, with OPEC projecting 2.2 mb/d, compared to IEA's 1.1 mb/d and EIA's 0.9 mb/d.

On the supply side, OPEC+ is currently withholding ~5.8 mb/d from the market through collective official cuts and voluntary measures. The group will meet on June 1st to review its existing production policy and current market fundamentals. Bloomberg surveyed 30 analysts and traders in early-May and showed that 26 of the participants expect all current production cuts to remain in place into the second half of the year. However, OPEC+ is not expected to make a policy decision until the meeting date.

Significant Updates in EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)

Beginning this month, EIA offered increased granularity in the STEO, including and expanded breakout and detailed information on OPEC+ production and differentiation between global crude oil production and other liquids production.

Significant Updates in OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR)

Beginning in May 2024, OPEC stopped publishing supply forecasts for non-OPEC members of the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC or commonly known as OPEC+). As a result, OPEC no longer publishes a total non-OPEC production forecast. This comparative analysis report has been adjusted to account for these changes and will use non-DoC figures to enable comparation across all three forecasters.

\",\"

Summary of 2023-2025 Balances

The divergence in global demand is widening compared to previous months across IEA, EIA and OPEC, with a range of approximately 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) projected for this year, and a range of 0.6 mb/d expected for the following year.
Non-OPEC supply is projected to slow from ~2.4 mb/d in 2023 to 1 mb/d this year, before accelerating to a 1.7 mb/d in the following year. As of May 2024, OPEC has discontinued publishing supply forecasts for non-OPEC members that are part of the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC), more commonly referred to as OPEC+.
IEA and EIA see the Call on DoC falling this year by 0.4-0.6 mb/d while OPEC continues to see a significant increase of 0.9 mb/d y/y

EIA, OPEC, and IEA revised down their 1Q24 demand estimates for OECD countries this month, despite annual demand projections remaining relatively stable. The EIA and OPEC's revisions were primarily driven by lower US estimates, while the IEA lowered its estimate for Europe.
The EIA revised to its Q2 2024 global demand forecast down by 0.3 mb/d and revised down the full year 2024 by 0.1 mb/d. However, the 2025 demand growth forecast shows an upward revision of 0.1 mb/d.
Both IEA and EIA have revised their forecasts for Non-OPEC supply growth upwards by 0.1 mb/d for next year.

\",\"

Summary of 2024 Balances and Revisions

OPEC's 2024 global demand growth forecast remains largely unchanged this month and is more than two times higher than that of the IEA and EIA, largely due to a stronger non-OECD demand outlook.
The EIA upwardly revised its non-OPEC supply forecast for 2024 by 0.1 mb/d on a stronger Canadian forecast. In contrast, the IEA has revised its non-OPEC supply forecast downward by 0.2 mb/d on a lower Brazil outlook.

\",\"

Evolution of 2024 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

EIA's 2024 global demand growth forecasts remain relatively stable, with a downward revision to OECD demand being offset by an upward revision to non-OECD demand.
IEA lowered its global demand growth for a second consecutive month.

\",\"

Evolution of 2024 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

The EIA's year-on-year growth in non-OPEC supply has been revised higher for a second consecutive month, yet it remains below IEA’s.
EIA sees the strongest 2024 non-DoC growth at 1.6 mb/d despite have the weakest US supply forecast.
The IEA's forecasts for the US’s supply growth are equivalent to approximately 1.5 times those projected by the EIA and OPEC.

\",\"

Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions

The divergence in global oil demand forecasts among major agencies remains striking. OPEC's estimate for global demand levels is still 2 million mb/d higher compared to the IEA and EIA projections.
The EIA has made a major upward revision to non-OPEC supply levels, particularly driven by revisions in supply forecasts from Canada, Guyana and others.

\",\"

Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

OPEC's 2025 global demand growth forecast is 0.6 mb/d higher than the IEA's, due to OPEC's higher projections for demand growth in the Middle East and other non-OECD regions.
IEA sees OECD demand contracting this year and in 2025.

\",\"

Evolution of 2025 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

For the fourth consecutive month, the EIA has revised upward its 2025 forecast for Non-OPEC supply growth. The EIA now projects nearly 0.1 mb/d stronger growth compared to IEA forecasts.
EIA's forecast for the US oil supply growth is 0.34 mb/d stronger that developed by OPEC.

\",\"

Key Charts

Page: /

Download the report

\"],\"BodyTop\":\"

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Friday 17 May 2024

\",\"MainBottom\":\"

Download Report

\",\"Resources\":\"\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-51","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":169836,"name":"Comparative Analysis MAY 24","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-may-24.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-may-24.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":15200,"created":"2024-04-12T14:27:00","date":"2024-04-12T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"April 2024 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA.","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

Oil Market Context

Oil prices climb with rising geopolitical risk and tightening fundamentals

Brent crude prices have risen nearly 20% since the beginning of the year and have surpassed $90/bbl for the first time since October. The price rally over the last few months has been supported by rising geopolitical tensions, strong speculative activity, and falling inventories.

With the latest hard data, global onshore inventories fell for a seventh consecutive month in February to their lowest level since at least 2016.

US inventories are frequently watched as a bellwether for the global market due to the relative size of inventories and the frequency of data. In 1Q24, US crude and product inventories drew by 27mb compared to a build of nearly 20mb over the same period last year. US product stocks fell by a substantial 56mb in 1Q24 – double the draw rate seen last year.

The drawdown in inventories has been driven by supply management from OPEC+ and robust demand. OPEC+ is currently withholding ~5.8 mb/d from the market through collective official cuts and voluntary measures. The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for June 1st.

Rising geopolitical tensions have also contributed to higher prices. More than 10 Russian refineries have been targeted in drone attacks in the past few months and industry reports indicate that ~14% of Russian refining capacity has been partially or fully halted. Russia has also increased attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, including power plants and natural gas storage sites. Additionally, tensions in the Middle East continue to rise with press reports indicating a potential imminent attack on Israel from Iran following a strike on Iran's diplomatic compound in Syria in early April.

Escalating geopolitical tensions have contributed to increased speculative activity. On April 5th, there were more bullish Brent call options bought by traders than any other day since 2019.

EIA warned in this month's STEO that further tightening in the market is expected in 2Q24. The agency estimates there will be global supply deficit of 0.9 mb/d for the quarter and 0.3 mb/d for the year.

\",\"

Summary of 2023-2025 Balances

IEA released its inaugural 2025 forecast this month and sees global demand growth at 1.1 mb/d, down from 2.3 mb/d seen last year and 1.2 mb/d expected this year. IEA sees a slight contraction in OECD demand this year and next.
Demand growth forecasts diverge by 1.3 mb/d in 2024 and 0.7 mb/d in 2025. The global demand levels for 2025 diverge by 2 mb/d with OPEC at 106.3 mb/d and IEA and EIA both at 104.3 mb/d.
OPEC sees the \\\"call on OPEC\\\" rising both this year and next year while IEA sees a decline both years. OPEC's 2025 \\\"call on OPEC\\\" is 2.2 mb/d higher than IEA's primarily due to OPEC's higher demand forecast.

EIA updated its historical demand estimates after incorporating recent updates to its International Energy Statistics for 2022. The revisions were primarily to historical demand in Russia, the Middle East, Non-OECD Asia (outside China and India), and Brazil. The baseline revisions for 2022 were fully carried forward to 2023 with a 1 mb/d upward revision to global demand and partially carried forward to 2024 and 2025 with an 0.5 mb/d and 0.4 mb/d upward revision, respectively. While 2024 global demand levels were revised higher by 0.5 mb/d, the demand growth for 2024 was revised down by 0.5 mb/d.
Other notable revisions this month include IEA's 0.3 mb/d downward revisions to 1Q24 OECD demand (Japan and US) and 1Q24 non-OPEC supply (US). OPEC also revised down its 2025 non-OPEC supply by 0.2 mb/d on a lower US forecast.

\",\"

Summary of 2024 Balances and Revisions

EIA's upward baseline adjustment that was partially carried through to 2024 resulted in a 0.5 mb/d higher global demand level forecast, but a 0.5 mb/d lower demand growth outlook compared to last month (see page 3 for more information).
Global demand growth for 2024 now diverges by 1.3 mb/d with EIA seeing only 0.9 mb/d growth and OPEC seeing 2.2 mb/d. The largest divergences are in non-OECD demand, where EIA sees only 0.8 mb/d growth this year vs. OPEC's 2.0 mb/d growth.
All three balances show there was a global supply deficit in 1Q24. However, the estimates of deficit range from OPEC's 1.5 mb/d to EIA's 0.2 mb/d.

\",\"

Evolution of 2024 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

OPEC's 2024 global demand growth forecast remained unchanged this month while EIA and IEA revised lower.
IEA revised up OECD demand growth slightly lower this month following 5 consecutive months of upward revisions. IEA sees a slight contraction in OECD demand this year while OPEC and EIA see growth.
EIA's significant downward revision to non-OECD demand was the result of some baseline adjustments that were only partially carried through to 2024 (see slide 3 for more details).

\",\"

Evolution of 2024 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

IEA continues to see the most robust non-OPEC supply growth this year, led by a higher US outlook. IEA sees about ~0.25 mb/d stronger US growth compared to OPEC and EIA.
Russian production is expected to contract by ~0.20-0.35 mb/d this year as it continues voluntary cuts with other OPEC+ members.

\",\"

Key Charts

Page: /

Download the report

\"],\"BodyTop\":\"

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Friday 12 April 2024

\",\"MainBottom\":\"

Download Report

\",\"Resources\":\"\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-50","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":169828,"name":"Comparative Analysis APR 24","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-apr-24.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-apr-24.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":15161,"created":"2024-03-15T14:13:00","date":"2024-03-15T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"March 2024 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA.","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

Oil Market Context

A subset of OPEC+ members extend ~2.2 mb/d in voluntary cuts through end-June

On March 3rd, several OPEC+ members announced an extension of ~2.2 mb/d in voluntary cuts through 2Q24. The extended cuts include volumes from Saudi Arabia (1.0 mb/d); Russia (0.4 mb/d); Iraq (0.22 mb/d); UAE (0.16 mb/d); Kuwait (0.14 mb/d); Kazakhstan (0.08 mb/d); Algeria (0.05 mb/d); and Oman (0.04 mb/d).

The next OPEC JMMC meeting is scheduled for April 3 and the next OPEC/OPEC+ ministerial meeting is scheduled for June 1. The JMMC meeting will review member's compliance to pledged production cuts and review current market fundamentals. While the JMMC can make recommendations for changes to production levels, any formal changes to production quotas will made during the full OPEC/OPEC+ ministerial.

Global onshore inventories continue to fall

Global onshore inventories fell for a seventh consecutive month in February to their lowest level since at least 2016, according to IEA. Observed onshore inventories fell by 38 mb in February and are down 180 mb since last July. OECD commercial inventories fell counter-seasonally in January and ended the month at 2,759 mb, which is 109 mb below the five-year average.

The drawdown of onshore inventories has been partially offset by a surge of oil in transit as more cargos divert from the Red Sea.

EIA's updated balance warned that 2Q24 could see global inventories draw by 0.9 mb/d (or 83 mb) following OPEC+ announcement of extending cuts through end-June. For the year, EIA expects global stocks to draw by 0.3 mb/d.

Additionally, IEA noted that if OPEC+ members extend their voluntary cuts through end-2024, they also see global inventories drawing by ~0.3 mb/d (or 110 mb), with the steepest draws expected in 3Q24.

\",\"

Summary of 2023-2025 Balances

Demand growth forecasts diverge by 0.9 mb/d in 2024 and 0.4 mb/d in 2025. The divergence has narrowed slightly over the last few months as IEA had revised up its 2024 demand growth steadily over the past 5 months and OPEC's forecast has remained unchanged. OPEC and EIA's 2025 global demand levels diverge by 2.5 mb/d.
Non-OPEC supply growth is expected to slow from ~2.5 mb/d in 2023 to 0.7-1.3 mb/d this year. IEA sees nearly twice as much 2024 non-OPEC supply growth vs. EIA largely due to a higher US and Russia forecast.
Baseline 2023 balances still diverge by 1.1 mb/d with EIA estimating a 0.8 mb/d global inventory build for the year, IEA estimating a 0.2 mb/d build and OPEC estimating a 0.3 mb/d draw.

\",\"

Summary of 2024 Balances and Revisions

Global demand forecasts for 2024 were revised marginally higher this month. IEA's forecast remains 0.9 mb/d lower than OPEC's, driven by a 0.6 mb/d lower non-OECD outlook.
Non-OPEC supply forecasts for 2024 were revised marginally lower this month driven by downwardly revised Russian production forecasts. IEA sees 0.6 mb/d higher non-OPEC supply growth versus EIA due to a higher US and Russian outlook.
EIA is the only one of the three agencies that provides an OPEC crude and global stock change forecast. EIA tightened its 2Q24 balance by 1 mb/d due to the extension of OPEC+ cuts and now sees a 0.9 mb/d global stock draw next quarter

\",\"

Evolution of 2024 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

OPEC's 2024 global demand growth forecast is 0.9 mb/d higher than IEA's due to higher Middle East, Russian, other non-OECD and OECD Americas projections.
IEA revised up OECD demand growth for a 5th consecutive month, but it still sees a slight contraction this year while OPEC and EIA see growth.

\",\"

Evolution of 2024 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

EIA continues to see lower non-OPEC supply growth than IEA and OPEC due primarily to a weaker US and Russia forecast.
All three agencies revised their 2024 Russian supply forecasts lower due to the extension and deepening of cuts in coordination with a sub-set of OPEC+ producers in 2Q24.

\",\"

Key Charts

Page: /

Download the report

\"],\"BodyTop\":\"

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Friday 15 March 2024

\",\"MainBottom\":\"

Download Report

\",\"Resources\":\"\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-49","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":169835,"name":"Comparative Analysis MAR 24","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-mar-24.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-mar-24.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":15152,"created":"2024-02-16T00:23:00","date":"2024-02-16T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"February 2024 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA.","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

Oil Market Context

Onshore oil inventories plummet on robust demand and supply disruptions

Global onshore inventories fell for a sixth consecutive month in January to their lowest level since at least 2016, according to IEA. Observed onshore inventories fell by 36 mb in December and a further 60 mb in January. OECD commercial inventories ended 2023 at 2,761 mb, which is 85.9 mb below the five-year average.

Additionally, floating crude storage has fallen to an eight-year low led by steady drawdowns from Iran and Venezuela over the past two years.

While overall, onshore inventories have steadily fallen, recent headlines highlighted a large 12 mb crude build in the US last week that was exacerbated by unplanned refinery outages and partially offset by a 6 mb draw in product inventories. Oil in transit on the water has also increased in recent months as voyage times have increased with tankers avoiding the Red Sea.

Currently, forecasts from IEA, OPEC, and EIA agree that both global demand growth and non-OPEC supply growth will slow in 2024 compared to last year. However, the outlooks contrast on the likelihood that global inventories will increase or decrease this year. The primary area of contention lies in global demand. This month’s reports show a 1 mb/d divergence in 2024 global demand growth forecasts (OPEC’s 2.2 mb/d vs. IEA’s 1.2 mb/d) and a 2 mb/d divergence in 2024 global demand level forecasts (OPEC’s 104.4 mb/d vs EIA’s 102.4 mb/d).

IMF revised up its global growth forecast

The IMF’s January World Economic Outlook revised up its global GDP forecast for 2024 to 3.1%, up 0.2 percentage points from its October forecast. The revisions were driven by greater-than-expected resilience in the US and several large emerging economies, as well as fiscal support in China. The IMF noted that the likelihood of a hard landing has receded but warned that further escalation in the Red Sea or a commodity price spike could cause growth to disappoint.

\",\"

Summary of 2023-2025 Balances

Demand growth forecasts diverge by 1.0 mb/d in 2024 and 0.5 mb/d in 2025. OPEC sees the most robust growth both years. OPEC and EIA’s 2025 global demand levels diverge by 2.5 mb/d – roughly equivalent to the current consumption levels of South Korea or Canada.
Non-OPEC supply growth is expected to slow from ~2.4 mb/d in 2023 to 0.8-1.6 mb/d this year. IEA sees twice as much growth vs. EIA largely due to a higher US forecast.
OPEC and EIA both see the call on OPEC rising in 2024 and 2025 as demand growth outpaces non-OPEC supply growth in both years.
Baseline 2023 balances still diverge by 1.1 mb/d with EIA estimating a 0.7 mb/d global inventory build for the year, IEA estimating a 0.3 mb/d build and OPEC estimating a 0.4 mb/d draw.

\",\"

Summary of 2024 Balances and Revisions

Annual demand forecasts for 2024 were relatively unchanged this month. IEA’s forecast remains 1 mb/d lower than OPEC’s, driven by a 0.7 mb/d lower non-OECD outlook. IEA also sees a contraction in OECD demand, whereas OPEC and EIA see growth.
IEA and OPEC revised up non-OPEC supply levels by 0.2 mb/d. IEA’s non-OPEC supply growth was also revised up 0.2 mb/d, whereas OPEC’s was revised down 0.1 mb/d (due to baseline adjustments).
IEA now sees two times greater non-OPEC supply growth compared to EIA, driven by diverging US forecasts.

\",\"

Evolution of 2024 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

OPEC’s 2024 global demand growth forecast is 1.0 mb/d higher than IEA’s due to a higher Middle East, Russian, other non-OECD and OECD Americas demand forecasts.
IEA revised up OECD demand growth for a 4th consecutive month, but it still sees a contraction this year while OPEC and EIA see growth.

\",\"

Evolution of 2024 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

EIA continues to see lower non-OPEC supply growth than IEA and OPEC due primarily to a weaker US forecast.
IEA has revised up its US supply growth outlook by 0.4 mb/d over the past three months while EIA has revised its US forecast lower by ~0.3 mb/d since September. IEA now sees more than 3x stronger US growth compared to EIA.

\",\"

Key Charts

Page: /

Download the report

\"],\"BodyTop\":\"

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Thursday 15 February 2024

\",\"MainBottom\":\"

Download Report

\",\"Resources\":\"\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-48","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":169831,"name":"Comparative Analysis FEB 24","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-feb-24.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-feb-24.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":15116,"created":"2024-01-18T15:35:00","date":"2024-01-18T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"January 2024 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA.","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

Oil Market Context

Oil prices remain range-bound despite rising geopolitical risk in the Middle East

More shippers are avoiding the Red Sea following a series of attacks on transiting ships by Yemen-based Houthis. The Suez Canal and Bab al-Mandeb Strait carried nearly 10% of all seaborne oil trade last year. Several oil companies have suspended shipments through the area and elected to reroute cargos around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-14 days to the voyage time. As a result of the attacks, a US-led coalition has launched a series of strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen.

Additionally in the region, Iran carried out strikes in Iraq, Syria, and Pakistan earlier this week. Pakistan then carried out a retaliatory strike into Iran.

Despite the geopolitical escalation, physical oil and gas production have not yet been impacted and Brent crude prices have remained range-bound in the upper-$70s. Economic headwinds and negative sentiment have helped keep prices capped.

Extreme cold and winter weather disrupt US production and refineries

Oil production in North Dakota, the US’ third largest producing state, has fallen by nearly 50% (~700 kb/d) this week because of operational challenges from extreme cold temperatures. Freezing weather in Texas has also resulted in reduced operations at numerous refineries. US physical oil prices have seen some upward pressure, but the outage is expected to be temporary, and the futures market remains largely unaffected.

Angola leaves OPEC

Angola announced in late December it was leaving OPEC after 16 years of membership. Angola was the 7th largest OPEC member, producing ~1.1 mb/d of crude. There are now 12 OPEC members.

This edition of the Comparative Analysis report includes Angola in non-OPEC production figures and has adjusted the month-on-month revisions to account for its reclassification from OPEC to non-OPEC.

\",\"

2023 has come to an end, but oil balances still show unusually large divergences

Data, particularly for demand, is revised routinely for years to come, but this large of a divergence at the end of the year is uncommon.
The 2023 annual balances from IEA, OPEC, and EIA imply global oil inventories either grew by 0.3-0.7 mb/d or drew by 0.6 mb/d.
This is a 1.3 mb/d range for 2023 and is more than 3x the range in estimates for 2022 (a 0.4 mb/d gap).
4Q23 data is still considered a forecast and the current estimates of the global supply-demand balance diverge by 2.6 mb/d.
However, data for 1Q23 is 9+ months old and balance estimates still diverge by 0.9 mb/d.
All three forecasters are fairly aligned on non-OPEC production estimates for the year, but their estimates on global demand levels differ by 1 mb/d and on OPEC supply differ by 0.6 mb/d.

\",\"

Summary of 2024-2025 Balances

OPEC and EIA published inaugural 2025 forecasts this month. IEA is scheduled to introduce its 2025 forecast in April.

Demand growth forecasts diverge by 1.0 mb/d in 2024 and 0.6 mb/d in 2025. OPEC sees the most robust growth both years. IEA sees OECD demand contracting this year and EIA sees it contracting next year.
OPEC and EIA’s 2025 global demand level forecasts diverge by 2.5 mb/d – roughly equivalent to the current consumption levels of South Korea or Canada.
Non-OPEC supply is forecast to grow by 0.9-1.4 mb/d in both 2024 and 2025.
OPEC and EIA both see the call on OPEC rising in 2024 and 2025 as demand growth outpaces non-OPEC supply growth in both years.

\",\"

Key Charts

Page: /

Download the report

\"],\"BodyTop\":\"

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Thursday 18 January 2024

\",\"MainBottom\":\"

Download Report

\",\"Resources\":\"\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-47","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":169832,"name":"Comparative Analysis JAN 24","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-jan-24.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-jan-24.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":15106,"created":"2023-12-14T14:07:00","date":"2023-12-14T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"December 2023 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA.","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

Oil Market Context

OPEC+ agrees to deeper cuts for 1Q24

OPEC+ met on November 30th and announced production cuts for 1Q24 totaling 2.2 mb/d, including an extension of Saudi Arabia's 1.0 mb/d voluntary cut. The cuts are in addition to the voluntary cuts previously announced in April 2023 and later extended until the end of 2024. The group announced that the voluntary cuts will be gradually returned depending on market conditions. The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for June 1st.

Oil prices continue to fall on economic concerns but physical markets remain tight

Oil prices have fallen by nearly $25 from their peak in late-September to six-month lows on macro economic concerns and negative sentiment and despite the OPEC+ agreement for deeper cuts.

While supply/demand fundamentals have not shifted significantly since September, portfolio investors have become significantly more bearish. Money managers have sold petroleum in 9 of the most recent 11 weeks reducing their positions by a total of 385 mb since mid-September. The combined position had been cut to just 295 million barrels (7th percentile for all weeks since 2013) on Dec. 5 down from 680 million (65th percentile) on Sept. 19.

Despite the negative sentiment, China continues to drive global demand growth, defying weak economic indicators and providing 1.7 mb/d y/y demand growth in 4Q23.

US production continues to surprise to the upside

Slightly offsetting the robust growth in demand has been record production levels in the US, Brazil, and Guyana. US crude production rose by 200 kb/d m/m to a record high in September as well productivity and operational efficiencies have more than offset the effect of reduced drilling. The US oil rig count remains >30% below pre-COVID levels. IEA, EIA, and OPEC forecasts have steadily revised up US supply growth forecasts from ~1.0 mb/d estimated in the spring to nearly 1.5 mb/d expected now.

\",\"

2023 Forecast Highlights:

Global demand:
- IEA lowered its 4Q23 global demand estimate by 0.6 mb/d on a weaker Middle East and Europe outlook while EIA lowered its 2H23 global demand estimate by 0.2 mb/d on a weaker Asia and Middle East outlook. OPEC's forecast was unchanged this month.
- IEA and OPEC remain fairly aligned on global demand growth (~2.3-2.5 mb/d) while EIA sees lower growth (1.8 mb/d) from a weaker Chinese forecast.

Non-OPEC and OPEC NGL supply:
- All three forecasters raised their 3Q23 non-OPEC supply forecast (by 0.1-0.3 mb/d) due to a higher US estimate.
- IEA and EIA both now see non-OPEC supply growth at 2.3 mb/d while OPEC continues to see lower growth at 1.8 mb/d due to a weaker 4Q23 Russia and US forecast.

\\\"Call on OPEC\\\":
- OPEC's balance implies a >3 mb/d supply shortfall in 4Q23 while IEA implies a ~0.5 mb/d supply deficit and EIA a ~0.8 mb/d supply surplus. OPEC's balance is significantly tighter than IEA and EIA's due to a lower 4Q Russia and US supply estimate and a higher 4Q demand estimate.

November OPEC production:
- OPEC secondary sources show OPEC production fell by 57 kb/d in November to 27.84 mb/d led by a 77 kb/d decrease from Iraq. IEA estimates show OPEC crude production fell by 10 kb/d to 28.10 mb/d. IEA estimates 0.34 mb/d higher UAE production compared to OPEC secondary sources.

OECD inventories:
- OPEC estimates OECD commercial stocks fell by 12.8 mb in October to 2,818 mb and stood 66 mb below the latest five- year average and 128 mb below the 2015-2019 average. IEA estimates OECD commercial inventories fell by 19.1 mb to 2,812 mb and stood 71.2 mb below the five-year average.

\",\"

2024 Forecast Highlights:

Global demand:
- IEA revised up its 2024 demand growth forecast marginally to 1.1 mb/d while EIA revised down its forecast marginally to 1.3 mb/d. OPEC's forecast was unchanged and it continues to see more robust demand growth at 2.2 mb/d.
- IEA sees OECD demand declining by 0.3 mb/d next year while OPEC expects 0.3 mb/d growth. Additionally, OPEC sees 0.2 mb/d stronger demand growth in the Middle East next year compared to both IEA and EIA.
- Notably, OPEC shows quarterly demand climbing in 1Q24 to ~2 mb/d above IEA and EIA forecasts.
- Despite having a lower y/y demand growth forecast, IEA sees higher demand levels than EIA for most of 2024 due to a higher 2023 baseline forecast. IEA sees quarterly demand rising to 103.9 mb/d by 4Q24 vs. EIA's 102.7 mb/d.

Non-OPEC and OPEC NGL supply:
- EIA revised down its 2024 non-OPEC supply growth by 0.3 mb/d to 0.9 mb/d on a weaker US and Kazakhstan forecast.
- IEA and OPEC's forecasts were relatively unchanged from last month at 1.3-1.4 mb/d growth.
- All three forecasts both see US production growth slowing to 0.3-0.6 mb/d next year from ~1.5 mb/d this year. Despite a significant slowdown, the US is still the strongest driver of non-OPEC supply growth in 2024.
- Other drivers of non-OPEC supply growth include Brazil, Guyana, and Canada.

\\\"Call on OPEC\\\":
- The \\\"call on OPEC\\\" for next year ranges from 27.8 mb/d (EIA) to 29.9 mb/d (OPEC). IEA falls in between at 28.2 mb/d.
- OPEC's 2024 balance is ~1.7 mb/d tighter than IEA's and 2.1 mb/d tighter than EIA's primarily due to OPEC's higher demand forecast and tighter baseline (2023) balance. Notably, OPEC's balance implies a 2 mb/d supply deficit in 2024 if OPEC production were to remain at November levels.

\",\"

Key Charts

Page: /

Download the report

\"],\"BodyTop\":\"

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Thursday 14 December 2023

\",\"MainBottom\":\"

Download Report

\",\"Resources\":\"\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-46","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":169713,"name":"Comparative Analysis DEC 23","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-dec-23.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-dec-23.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":15069,"created":"2023-11-14T13:53:00","date":"2023-11-14T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"November 2023 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA.","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

Oil Market Context

Oil prices fall on macro concerns but physical markets remain tight

Oil prices have fallen by nearly 18% from their peak in late-September on macro economic concerns and negative sentiment. The number of WTI short positions have more than quadrupled over the past month to their highest level since July. WTI's prompt spreads flipped to a bearish contango for short stints earlier this month, also for the first time since July.

However, global demand continues to defy weak economic signals. China's demand continues to set records with the latest data showing demand was at an all-time high in September at 17.1 mb/d and was up 1.9 mb/d year-on-year. Similarly, the latest final data for the US shows demand in August surpassed expectations and grew by >0.6 mb/d year-on-year.

Slightly offsetting the robust growth in demand has been record production levels in the US, Brazil, and Guyana. US crude production rose to a record high in August as well productivity and operational efficiencies have more than offset the effect of reduced drilling. The US oil rig count remains >30% below pre-COVID levels.

Global crude inventories are estimated to have fallen by more than 140 mb in 3Q23.

OPEC+ set to meet for the first time in five months

OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on Sunday, November 26th in Vienna. It will be the first full Ministerial Meeting for the group since June 4th. The group will discuss production levels for 2024. Currently, a 2 mb/d production cut announced in October 2022 is scheduled to extend through the end of 2024. Additionally, a subset of the group has implemented a voluntary cut of 1.16 mb/d, announced on April 2, 2023, which are scheduled to expire at the end of 2023. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia has been cutting an extra 1.0 mb/d since July 2023 and may extend or rescind the cuts.

\",\"

2023 Forecast Highlights:

Global demand:
- IEA, OPEC, and EIA raised their global demand growth forecasts marginally on stronger 2H23 demand (primarily the US and China). IEA and OPEC remain aligned on global demand growth (~2.4-2.5 mb/d) while EIA sees lower growth (1.9 mb/d) from a weaker Chinese forecast.
- IEA continues to see ~1.0 mb/d higher Chinese demand growth vs. EIA and 0.6 mb/d higher vs. OPEC.

Non-OPEC and OPEC NGL supply:
- IEA and EIA revised up 2023 non-OPEC supply growth by 0.2 mb/d on stronger US and Brazil production in 2H23. OPEC revised up 3Q23 production by 0.3 mb/d on higher Russian production.
- IEA and EIA both now see non-OPEC supply growth at 2.3-2.4 mb/d while OPEC continues to see lower growth at 1.7 mb/d.
- The largest divergence in supply forecasts is for Russian production where OPEC sees 4Q23 supply levels at 1.0-1.2 mb/d below IEA and EIA forecasts.
- All three outlooks expect the US to be the largest driver of non-OPEC supply growth, adding around 1.3-1.5 mb/d of supply this year.

\\\"Call on OPEC\\\":
- OPEC and IEA balances imply a 1.0-3.0 mb/d global supply deficit in 4Q23 if OPEC production stays at October levels.

October OPEC production:
- OPEC secondary sources show OPEC production rose by 80 kb/d in October to 27.90 mb/d led by a 51 kb/d increase from Angola and a 46 kb/d increase from Iran. IEA estimates show OPEC crude production remained flat at 28.21 mb/d. IEA estimates 0.3 mb/d higher UAE production compared to OPEC secondary sources.

OECD inventories:
- OPEC estimates OECD commercial stocks fell by 15.6 mb in September to 2,783 mb and stood 118 mb below the latest five-year average and 184 mb below the 2015-2019 average. IEA estimates OECD commercial inventories rose by 1.8 mb to 2,813 mb and stood 71.2 mb below the five-year average.

\",\"

2024 Forecast Highlights:

Global demand:
- IEA and EIA both revised up their 2024 demand growth forecasts slightly to 0.9 mb/d and 1.4 mb/d, respectively. OPEC continues to see more robust demand growth at 2.2 mb/d.
- IEA sees OECD demand declining by 0.3 mb/d next year while OPEC expects 0.3 mb/d growth. Additionally, OPEC sees 0.2 mb/d stronger demand growth in the Middle East next year compared to both IEA and EIA.
- Notably, OPEC shows quarterly demand climbing in 1Q24 to ~2 mb/d above IEA and EIA forecasts.
- Despite having a lower y/y demand growth forecast, IEA sees higher demand levels than EIA for most of 2024 due to a higher 2023 baseline forecast. IEA sees quarterly demand rising to 104.1 mb/d by 4Q24 vs. EIA's 102.9 mb/d.

Non-OPEC and OPEC NGL supply:
- EIA revised up 2024 non-OPEC supply growth by 0.1 mb/d to 1.2 mb/d on a stronger Brazil forecast.
- IEA revised down non-OPEC supply growth by 0.1 mb/d to 1.3 mb/d on slightly lower US and Canadian growth.
- OPEC's forecast was relatively unchanged from last month at 1.4 mb/d.
- All three forecasts both see US production growth slowing to 0.4-0.6 mb/d next year from >1.2 mb/d this year. Despite a significant slowdown, the US is still the strongest driver of non-OPEC supply growth in 2024.
- Other drivers of non-OPEC supply growth include Brazil, Guyana, and Canada.

\\\"Call on OPEC\\\":
- The \\\"call on OPEC\\\" for next year ranges from 27.7 mb/d (EIA) to 29.9 mb/d (OPEC). IEA falls in the middle at 28.4 mb/d.
- OPEC's 2024 balance is ~1.5 mb/d tighter than IEA's and 2.2 mb/d tighter than EIA's primarily due to OPEC's higher demand forecast and tighter baseline (2023) balance. Notably, OPEC's balance implies a 2 mb/d supply deficit in 2024 if OPEC production were to remain at October levels.

\",\"

Key Charts

Page: /

Download the report

\"],\"BodyTop\":\"

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Tuesday 14 November 2023

\",\"MainBottom\":\"

Download Report

\",\"Resources\":\"\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-45","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":159624,"name":"Comparative Analysis NOV 23","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-nov-23.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-nov-23.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":5039,"created":"2023-10-12T15:38:00","date":"2023-10-12T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"October 2023 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA.","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

Oil Market Context

Energy markets contend with vying geopolitical and macro-economic risks

The unfolding crisis in Israel and Gaza has again sparked an escalation in geopolitical risk in the Middle East. While there has been no direct impact on physical oil supplies, market participants are closely monitoring the crisis and have priced in a ~$3/bbl risk premium for oil at the time of writing.

Immediately before Hamas' surprise attack on October 7th, Brent oil prices had tumbled $14/bbl from their peak in mid-September on reignited global economic and demand concerns. US preliminary weekly data for the end of September showed a sharp drop in gasoline demand (to >20-year seasonal lows) and a rise in gasoline inventories. However, weekly data can be volatile and is frequently revised in final data.

The IEA warned that elevated energy prices have caused demand destruction in Nigeria, Pakistan, and Egypt, particularly for gasoline. However, it also noted that these challenges are not yet widespread and other demand centers, such as China, India, and Brazil, are continuing to see robust demand growth. Latest data indicates Chinese demand rose to another record high in August, rising 2.7 mb/d year-on-year.

IMF warns of persistent inflation and revises global growth forecasts lower

The IMF published its updated World Economic Outlook on October 10th and revised up its 2024 inflation forecast to 5.8% from 5.2% projected just three months ago. The IMF also warned that the global economy is \\\"limping,\\\" lowering its global growth outlook for next year to 2.9% (from 3.0% forecasted in July) which is well below the annual average of 3.8% seen in 2000-2019.

Saudi Arabia and Russia extend voluntary production cuts through December

On October 4th, Saudi Arabia reaffirmed its extension of its voluntary 1 mb/d production cut through December. The press release noted that the decision would continue to be reviewed monthly, and the cuts could be deepened or reversed. Russia also previously announced it would extend its voluntary 300 kb/d cut through end-year. OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on Sunday, November 26th in Vienna. It will be the first full Ministerial Meeting for the group since June 4th.

\",\"

2023 Forecast Highlights:

Global demand:
- Global demand growth forecasts were largely unchanged this month. IEA and OPEC remain aligned on global demand growth (~2.3-2.4 mb/d) while EIA sees lower growth (1.8 mb/d).
- IEA continues to see ~1.0 mb/d higher Chinese demand growth vs. EIA and 0.6 mb/d higher vs. OPEC. Meanwhile, OPEC sees more robust demand in Russia, Africa, the Middle East and other non-OECD countries compared to IEA and EIA.
- OPEC's update incorporated offsetting baseline demand revisions that impacted historic and forecasted demand levels but not demand growth. The revisions included a ~0.3 mb/d downward adjustment to historical and forecast US demand and a ~0.3 mb/d upward revision to historical and forecast non-OECD demand (largely China and Russia).

Non-OPEC and OPEC NGL supply:
- OPEC revised up non-OPEC supply in 2Q23 by 0.2 mb/d and 3Q23 by 0.4 mb/d on higher production in Canada and Russia.
- IEA and EIA both now see non-OPEC supply growth at 2.2-2.3 mb/d while OPEC continues to see lower growth at 1.7 mb/d.
- The largest divergence in supply forecasts is for Russian production where OPEC sees 4Q23 supply levels at 1.0-1.3 mb/d below IEA and EIA forecasts.
- All three outlooks expect the US to be the largest driver of non-OPEC supply growth, adding around 1.2-1.5 mb/d of supply this year.

\\\"Call on OPEC\\\":
- OPEC and IEA balances imply a 1.5-3.0 mb/d global supply deficit in 4Q23 if OPEC production stays at September levels.

September OPEC production:
- OPEC secondary sources show OPEC production rose by 0.27 mb/d in September to 27.75 mb/d led by a 141 kb/d increase from Nigeria. IEA estimates show OPEC crude production rose by 0.24 mb/d to 28.21 mb/d. IEA estimates a higher production figure for UAE and Iran vs. OPEC secondary sources.

OECD inventories:
- IEA estimates OECD commercial inventories fell counter-seasonally in August by 6.5 mb to 2,816 mb and stood 105.3 mb below the five-year average. OPEC estimates OECD commercial stocks fell by 11.0 mb in August to 2,803 mb and stood 117 mb below the latest five-year average and 182 mb below the 2015-2019 average.

\",\"

2024 Forecast Highlights:

Global demand:
- IEA and EIA both revised down their 2024 demand growth forecasts slightly to 0.9 mb/d and 1.3 mb/d, respectively. OPEC continues to see much more robust demand growth at 2.2 mb/d.
- IEA sees OECD demand declining by 0.4 mb/d next year while OPEC expects 0.3 mb/d growth. Additionally, OPEC sees 0.2 mb/d stronger demand growth in the Middle East next year compared to both IEA and EIA.
- Notably, OPEC shows quarterly demand climbing in 1Q24 to ~2 mb/d above IEA and EIA forecasts.
- Despite having a lower y/y demand growth forecast, IEA sees higher demand levels than EIA for most of 2024 due to a higher 2023 baseline forecast. IEA sees quarterly demand rising to 103.9 mb/d by 4Q24 vs. EIA's 102.7 mb/d.

Non-OPEC and OPEC NGL supply:
- EIA revised down 2024 non-OPEC supply growth by 0.2 mb/d to 1.1 mb/d on a lower Canada and US forecast.
- IEA and OPEC's forecast was unchanged at 1.3-1.4 mb/d.
- All three forecasts both see US production growth slowing to 0.4-0.6 mb/d next year from >1.2 mb/d this year. Despite a significant slowdown, the US is still the strongest driver of non-OPEC supply growth in 2024.
- Other drivers of non-OPEC supply growth include Brazil, Guyana, and Canada.

\\\"Call on OPEC\\\":
- The \\\"call on OPEC\\\" for next year ranges from 27.8 mb/d (EIA) to 29.9 mb/d (OPEC). IEA falls in the middle at 28.3 mb/d. All three implied figures are at or above September's actual OPEC production of 27.8 mb/d, implying 0.0-2.1 mb/d of global inventory draws if OPEC production remained constant. Notably, Saudi Arabia's voluntary cut of 1 mb/d is currently expected to expire at the end of 2023 along with the >1 mb/d of voluntary cuts that were announced by several OPEC+ members on April 2nd.
- OPEC's 2024 balance is ~1.6 mb/d tighter than IEA's and 2.1 mb/d tighter than EIA's primarily due to OPEC's higher demand forecast and tighter baseline (2023) balance.

\",\"

Key Charts

Page: /

Download the report

\"],\"BodyTop\":\"

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Thursday 12 October 2023

\",\"MainBottom\":\"

Download Report

\",\"Resources\":\"\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-44","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":149484,"name":"Comparative Analysis OCT 23","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-oct-23.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-oct-23.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":5037,"created":"2023-09-13T16:25:00","date":"2023-09-13T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"September 2023 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA.","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

Oil Market Context

Crude and product markets continue to tighten on robust demand

Near-record global demand, in addition to OPEC+ production cuts, helped drive global visible oil inventories lower by nearly 2.5 mb/d in August. Global inventories fell to a 13-month low led by steep declines of oil on the water and inventories in China.

Tightening markets have caused crude oil prices to continue to rally into September, with Brent exceeding $92/bbl for the first time since November.

Notably, diesel prices are rising even faster than crude, surging more than 40% in the US and Europe since May. Tightness in refining capacity, exasperated by unplanned outages and under-investment, has driven refining margins to an 8-month high. Diesel markets could face additional pressure in upcoming months as refinery maintenance season ramps up and refinery yields of diesel remain reduced due to limited access to medium and heavy crude grades.

Chinese demand remains resilient despite economic concerns

Chinese demand in July reached an all-time seasonal high for the third-time this year despite weakening economic data. Oil demand in China has averaged up ~1.6 mb/d y/y so far this year. Growth has been driven by the ramp-up of new and expanded petrochemical facilities and increased mobility. Jet/Kerosene demand topped 1 mb/d for the first time in July after slumping to as low as 0.4 mb/d during lockdowns last year. Over the summer period, domestic flight numbers were nearly 33% above pre-COVID levels while international flights were still ~15% below pre-pandemic levels.

Saudi Arabia and Russia extend voluntary production cuts through December

On September 5th, Saudi Arabia announced an extension of its voluntary 1 mb/d production cut through December. The press release noted that the decision would be reviewed monthly, and the cuts could be deepened or reversed. Russia also announced it would extend its voluntary 300 kb/d cut through end-year.

\",\"

2023 Forecast Highlights:

Global demand:
- IEA and OPEC remain fairly aligned on global demand growth (~2.2-2.4 mb/d) following marginal revisions this month. EIA sees lower growth (1.8 mb/d) despite a slight 0.1 mb/d upward revision this month.
- IEA continues to see ~0.8 mb/d higher Chinese demand growth this year vs. EIA and OPEC. Meanwhile, OPEC sees more robust demand in Russia, Africa, the Middle East and other non-OECD countries compared to IEA and EIA.
- EIA and IEA's demand estimates incorporated a ~0.3 mb/d downward adjustment to historical and forecasted US demand due to a reclassification of natural gasoline and unfinished oils from product supplied to crude oil supply. This revision impacted historic and forecasted demand levels but did not materially impact demand growth.

Non-OPEC and OPEC NGL supply:
- OPEC and IEA revised up 3Q23 non-OPEC supply by 0.4 mb/d primarily on higher supply in Russia and Brazil. EIA's forecast remained largely unchanged from last month.
- IEA and EIA both now see non-OPEC supply growing this year by 2.0-2.1 mb/d. OPEC sees lower growth at 1.6 mb/d.
- The largest divergence in supply forecasts is for Russian production. OPEC sees a 0.58 mb/d decline in Russian output this year vs. IEA's forecast of a 0.16 mb/d annual decline and EIA's forecast of a 0.30 mb/d decline.
- All three outlooks expect the US to be the largest driver of non-OPEC supply growth, adding around 1.1-1.3 mb/d of supply this year.

\\\"Call on OPEC\\\":
- All three forecasts show the 2H23 \\\"call on OPEC\\\" will exceed recent OPEC production levels. OPEC's forecast shows that the call on OPEC will rise to 30.7 mb/d by 4Q23, implying a 3.2 mb/d supply deficit if OPEC production remains at August levels (27.5 mb/d).

August OPEC production:
- OPEC secondary sources show OPEC production rose by 0.11 mb/d in August to 27.45 mb/d led by a 143 kb/d increase from Iran. IEA estimates show OPEC crude production rose by 0.09 mb/d to 27.96 mb/d. IEA estimates a higher production figure for UAE and Iran vs. OPEC secondary sources.

OECD inventories:
- IEA estimates OECD commercial inventories rose by 27.7 mb in July to 2,814 mb and stood 102.6 mb below the five-year average. OPEC estimates OECD commercial stocks fell by 7.9 mb in July to 2,779 mb and stood 138 mb below the latest five-year average and 190 mb below the 2015-2019 average.

\",\"

2024 Forecast Highlights:

Global demand:
- EIA revised down its 2024 global demand growth forecast by 0.3 mb/d to 1.4 mb/d y/y. IEA and OPEC's demand growth forecast remained largely unchanged from last month at 1.0 mb/d and 2.2 mb/d, respectively.
- IEA sees OECD demand declining by 0.4 mb/d next year while EIA now sees flat growth and OPEC expects 0.3 mb/d growth. Additionally, OPEC sees 0.2 mb/d stronger demand growth in the Middle East next year compared to both IEA and EIA.
- Notably, OPEC shows quarterly demand reaching 105.3 mb/d by 4Q24 – which is 4 mb/d higher than the most recent quarter, 2Q23.
- Despite having a lower y/y demand growth forecast, IEA sees higher demand levels than EIA for most of 2024 due to a higher 2023 baseline forecast. IEA sees quarterly demand rising to 103.5 mb/d by 4Q24 vs. EIA's 102.8 mb/d.

Non-OPEC and OPEC NGL supply:
- IEA, OPEC, and EIA all see 1.3-1.4 mb/d of non-OPEC supply growth next year.
- All three forecasts both see US production growth slowing to 0.4-0.6 mb/d next year from >1.1 mb/d this year. Despite a significant slowdown, the US is still the strongest driver of non-OPEC supply growth in 2024.
- Other drivers of non-OPEC supply growth include Brazil, Guyana, and Canada.

\\\"Call on OPEC\\\":
- The \\\"call on OPEC\\\" for next year ranges from 27.8 mb/d (EIA) to 30.0 mb/d (OPEC). IEA falls in the middle at 28.4 mb/d. All three implied figures are above August's actual OPEC production of 27.5 mb/d, implying 0.3-2.5 mb/d of global inventory draws if OPEC production remained constant. Notably, Saudi Arabia's voluntary cut of 1 mb/d is currently expected to expire at the end of 2023 along with the 1.66 mb/d of voluntary cuts that were announced by several OPEC+ members on April 2nd.
- OPEC's 2024 balance is ~1.6 mb/d tighter than IEA's and 2.2 mb/d tighter than EIA's primarily due to OPEC's higher demand forecast.

\",\"

Key Charts

Page: /

Download the report

\"],\"BodyTop\":\"

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Wednesday 13 September 2023

\",\"MainBottom\":\"

Download Report

\",\"Resources\":\"\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-43","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":149352,"name":"Comparative Analysis SEPT 23","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-sept-23.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-sept-23.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":4990,"created":"2023-08-11T14:47:00","date":"2023-08-11T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"August 2023 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

Oil Market Context

Key indicators show oil markets tightening on record high demand

Crude oil prices rallied in July and early August, approaching their highest level for the year. Brent's time spreads (prompt, 6-month and 12-month) have also become more bullish with steepening backwardation, indicating tightening supply for prompt delivery. This is a pivot from the end of June where the prompt and 6-month spreads were in contango. Similarly, diesel crack spreads have soared over the past month to the highest level in history, excluding 2022's volatility.

Robust demand has helped support prices. The IEA estimates global demand rose to an all-time record high of 103 mb/d in June and it expects another peak in August.

US final demand data for May, published on July 31st, came in ~970 kb/d above the estimate implied by US EIA weekly data. May demand was at an all-time seasonal high of 20.78 mb/d and was up 700 kb/d from year ago levels. US commercial crude inventories saw the largest week-on-week drop in history at the end of July. They fell by 17 mb and are now at their lowest level since 1985.

China's oil demand was at its second-highest level on record in May, according to data reported to JODI. It was up more than 2 mb/d year-on-year. Implied demand continued to be robust in June as crude imports soared 45% year-on-year. July crude imports softened but remained 17% above year ago levels.

Meanwhile, the IMF raised its outlook for global growth in its July update and it now anticipates 3.0% global GDP growth this year (vs. 2.8% expected in its April update).

Saudi Arabia and Russia extend voluntary production cuts through September

On August 3rd, Saudi Arabia announced an extension of its voluntary 1 mb/d production cut through September. The press release noted that the cuts could be extended or deepened in the future. This will be the third consecutive month where the Kingdom's crude production is expected to be at ~9 mb/d – a two-year low. Simultaneously, Russia announced it would be cutting 300 kb/d from crude exports in September, tapering down from the announced 500 kb/d cut for August.

US postpones SPR buyback

The US Department of Energy cancelled a solicitation for buying 6 mb of crude for the SPR for delivery in October and November due to rising crude prices. The US SPR has fallen to a 40-year low of 347 mb following a ~250 mb drawdown over the past 20-months.

\",\"

2023 Forecast Highlights:

Global demand:
- IEA estimates global demand exceeded 103 mb/d in June, reaching a record high. The agency revised up its 2Q23 demand forecast by a significant 0.5 mb/d on higher-than-expected demand in North America, Europe, and China.
- IEA and OPEC remain fairly aligned on global demand growth (~2.2-2.4 mb/d), while EIA sees lower growth (1.8 mb/d). IEA continues to see ~0.8 mb/d higher Chinese demand growth this year vs. EIA and OPEC. Meanwhile, OPEC sees more robust demand in Russia, Africa, the Middle East and other non-OECD countries compared to IEA and EIA.

Non-OPEC and OPEC NGL supply:
- OPEC revised up 3Q23 non-OPEC supply by 0.5 mb/d primarily on higher Russian supply. EIA revised up 2H23 supply on a higher US outlook and now sees US crude averaging a record high of 12.76 mb/d this year.
- IEA and EIA both now see non-OPEC supply growing this year by 1.9-2.0 mb/d. OPEC sees lower growth at 1.6 mb/d.
- The largest divergence in supply forecasts is for Russian production. OPEC sees a 0.65 mb/d decline in Russian output this year vs. IEA's and EIA's forecast of a 0.2-0.3 mb/d annual decline.
- All three forecasters expect the US to be the largest driver of non-OPEC supply growth, adding ~1.1-1.3 mb/d of supply this year.

\\\"Call on OPEC\\\":
- IEA and OPEC see the \\\"call on OPEC\\\" rising to 29.9-30.2 mb/d in the second half of the year. This implies a >2.5 mb/d global supply shortfall in 2H23 if OPEC production were to remain constant at July levels (27.31 mb/d). Notably, July production levels include a 1.0 mb/d voluntary cut from Saudi Arabia that may be extended or rescinded after September.

July OPEC production:
- OPEC secondary sources show OPEC production fell by 0.84 mb/d in July to 27.31 mb/d led by a 968 kb/d decrease from Saudi Arabia as it implemented a voluntary cut. IEA estimates show OPEC crude production fell by 0.95 mb/d to 27.86 mb/d. IEA estimates a higher production figure for Iran and UAE vs. OPEC secondary sources.

OECD inventories:
- IEA estimates OECD commercial inventories fell by 14.7 mb in June to 2,787 mb and stood 115.4 mb below the five-year average. OPEC estimates OECD commercial stocks rose by 4.2 mb in June to 2,828 mb and stood 74 mb below the latest five-year average and 119 mb below the 2015-2019 average.

\",\"

2024 Forecast Highlights:

Global demand:
- IEA revised down its 2024 global demand growth forecast by 0.2 mb/d to 1.0 mb/d y/y. This is 1.2 mb/d lower than OPEC's forecast (2.2 mb/d) and 0.6 mb/d lower than EIA's forecast (1.6 mb/d).
- IEA sees OECD demand declining by 0.4 mb/d next year while OPEC and EIA both forecast 0.2-0.3 mb/d growth. Additionally, OPEC sees 0.2 mb/d stronger demand growth in the Middle East next year compared to both IEA and EIA.
- Notably, OPEC shows quarterly demand reaching 105.3 mb/d by 4Q24 – which is ~4 mb/d higher than the most recent quarter, 2Q23.
- Despite having a lower y/y demand growth forecast, IEA sees higher demand levels than EIA for most of 2024 due to a higher 2023 baseline forecast. IEA sees quarterly demand rising to 104.3 mb/d by 4Q24 vs. EIA's 103.2 mb/d.

Non-OPEC and OPEC NGL supply:
- IEA, OPEC, and EIA all revised up non-OPEC supply forecasts for 2024.
- EIA revised up non-OPEC supply by 0.4 mb/d on higher US, Brazil and Guyana forecasts; IEA revised its forecast up by 0.2 mb/d on higher Brazil, OPEC NGLs, China, and US; OPEC revised its forecast higher by 0.1 mb/d on Russia.
- All three now see 1.3-1.5 mb/d of growth next year.
- Notably, IEA and EIA both see US production growth slowing to 0.4-0.5 mb/d next year from >1.0 mb/d this year. Despite a significant slowdown, the US is still the strongest driver of non-OPEC supply growth in 2024.

\\\"Call on OPEC\\\":
- The \\\"call on OPEC\\\" for next year ranges from 28.3 mb/d (EIA) to 30.1 mb/d (OPEC). IEA falls in the middle at 29.0 mb/d. All three implied figures are above July's actual OPEC production of 27.3 mb/d, implying 1.0-2.8 mb/d of global inventory draws if OPEC production remained constant. Notably, July's OPEC production figure includes a 1.0 mb/d voluntary cut from Saudi Arabia that is currently extended through September and be extended or rescinded.
- OPEC's 2024 balance is ~1 mb/d tighter than IEA's primarily due to a higher demand forecast.

\",\"

Key Charts

Page: /

Download the report

\"],\"BodyTop\":\"

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Friday 11 August 2023

\",\"MainBottom\":\"

Download Report

\",\"Resources\":\"\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-42","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":149230,"name":"Comparative Analysis AUG 23","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-aug-23.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-aug-23.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":4977,"created":"2023-07-13T16:28:00","date":"2023-07-13T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"July 2023 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

Oil Market Context

Saudi Arabia and Russia extend/deepen production cuts

Saudi Arabia announced on July 3rd that it was extending its voluntary 1 mb/d production cut from July into August. The Kingdom's crude production is expected to fall to ~9 mb/d – a two-year low. Simultaneously, Russia announced it would be cutting an additional 500 kb/d from crude exports in August and Algeria announced a 20 kb/d cut for the same month.

Mixed-messages on the global economy and oil demand

Negative economic sentiment continues to weigh on markets, but oil demand in the world's largest consuming countries has surprised to the upside.

In the US, the world's largest oil consumer, both economic data and oil demand continue to be revised up. Estimates of 1Q23 GDP was revised up to 2.0% in June after May estimates pegged it at just 1.3%. Additionally, latest final oil demand data, for April 2023, came in nearly 500 kb/d above estimates.

Official PMI data showed China's manufacturing sector contracted for a third consecutive month in June. However, the country's oil demand has remained robust, soaring to a record high in April and falling slightly in May to the 2nd highest level on record.

Furthermore, economic and oil demand growth in other non-OECD countries, including India and Brazil, continue to exceed and defy economists' expectations of an impending slowdown.

In contrast, demand remains subdued across OECD Europe where the HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI has indicated a contraction for 12-consecutive months. The region's oil demand in 1H23 averaged ~150 kb/d below year-ago levels.

US begins SPR buyback

The US Department of Energy has announced plans to buyback at least 12 mb of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) this year, including 6 mb already contracted for delivery in August and September. On July 7th, the DOE issued a solicitation for an additional 6 mb for delivery in October and November and noted that they will pursue additional repurchase opportunities as \\\"market conditions allow.\\\" The US SPR has fallen to a 40-year low of 347 mb following a ~250 mb drawdown over the past 18-months.

\",\"

2023 Forecast Highlights:

Global demand:
- IEA and OPEC remain fairly aligned on global demand growth (~2.2-2.4 mb/d), while EIA sees lower growth (1.8 mb/d). IEA continues to see ~0.7 mb/d higher Chinese demand growth this year vs. EIA and OPEC. Meanwhile, OPEC sees more robust demand in Russia, Africa, the Middle East and other non-OECD countries compared to IEA and EIA.
- IEA revised down its 2023 demand growth forecast by 0.2 mb/d this month primarily on weaker OECD Europe and Middle East demand. Meanwhile, EIA revised up its demand growth by 0.2 mb/d on stronger forecasts for Europe, Brazil, and non-OECD Asia. OPEC revised up its forecast by 0.1 mb/d on stronger-than-expected 2Q23 demand in China and the US.

Non-OPEC and OPEC NGL supply:
- IEA and EIA both now see non-OPEC and OPEC NGL supply growing this year by 1.9 mb/d. OPEC sees lower growth at 1.5 mb/d.
- IEA revised up its non-OPEC supply growth forecast by 0.1 mb/d led by higher Russia and US projections. Meanwhile, EIA revised down its non-OPEC growth forecast by 0.2 mb/d on weaker projections for Norway and South America. OPEC's annual forecast remained unchanged this month as upward revisions to 1H23 offset downward revisions to 2H23.
- The largest divergence in supply forecasts is for Russian production. OPEC sees a 0.75 mb/d decline in Russian output this year vs. IEA's and EIA's forecast of a 0.2-0.3 mb/d annual decline.
- All three forecasters expect the US to be the largest driver of non-OPEC supply growth, adding ~1 mb/d of new supply this year.

\\\"Call on OPEC\\\":
- IEA and OPEC see the \\\"call on OPEC\\\" rising to 30.1-30.4 mb/d in the second half of the year. This implies a ~2 mb/d global supply shortfall in 2H23 if OPEC production were to remain constant at June levels (28.19 mb/d).

June OPEC production:
- OPEC secondary sources show OPEC production rose by 0.09 mb/d in June to 28.19 mb/d led by a 56 kb/d increase from Iran and a 54 kb/d increase in Iraq. IEA estimates show OPEC crude production remained flat month-on-month in June at 28.7 mb/d. IEA estimates a higher production figure for Iran and UAE vs. OPEC secondary sources.

OECD inventories:
- IEA estimates OECD commercial inventories rose by 5.4 mb in May to 2,824 mb and stood 92.2 mb below the five-year average. OPEC estimates OECD commercial stocks rose by 20.2 mb in May to 2,815 mb and stood 101 mb below the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015-2019 average.

\",\"

2024 Forecast Highlights:

OPEC issued its inaugural 2024 outlook this month.

Global demand:
- OPEC's inaugural 2024 forecast shows demand growth slowing to 2.2 mb/d from 2.4 mb/d this year. This is double IEA's forecast for of 1.1 mb/d and 0.6 mb/d above EIA's forecast of 1.6 mb/d.
- IEA sees OECD demand declining by 0.3 mb/d next year while OPEC and EIA both forecast 0.3 mb/d growth. Additionally, OPEC sees 0.2 mb/d stronger demand growth in the Middle East next year compared to both IEA and EIA.
- Notably, OPEC shows quarterly demand reaching 105.3 mb/d by 4Q24 – which is ~4 mb/d higher than all three agencies' estimates for the most recent quarter, 2Q23.
- Despite having a lower y/y demand growth forecast, IEA sees higher demand levels than EIA for most of 2024 due to a higher 2023 baseline forecast. IEA sees quarterly demand rising to 104.5 mb/d by 4Q24 vs. EIA's 103.2 mb/d.

Non-OPEC and OPEC NGL supply:
- Both IEA and EIA see non-OPEC and OPEC NGL supply growing by 1.0-1.2 mb/d in 2024. OPEC sees slightly faster growth at 1.5 mb/d primarily due to a higher US growth forecast.
- Notably, IEA and EIA both see US production growth slowing to 0.4 mb/d next year from >1.0 mb/d this year. Despite a significant slowdown, the US is still the strongest driver of non-OPEC supply growth in 2024.

\\\"Call on OPEC\\\":
- IEA's balance implies OPEC would need to produce an average 29.2 mb/d in 2024 to balance the market. This implies a ~1 mb/d supply shortfall if OPEC production were to remain at June 2023 levels (28.2 mb/d).
- EIA's balance implies OPEC would need to produce an average of 28.7 mb/d in 2024 to balance the market, implying a 0.5 mb/d global supply shortfall if OPEC production remained at June 2023 levels.
- OPEC's balance implies a 30.2 mb/d \\\"Call on OPEC\\\", implying a 2.0 mb/d global supply shortfall if OPEC production remains constant at June 2023 levels.
- OPEC's 2024 balance is ~1 mb/d tighter than IEA's primarily due to a higher demand forecast.

\",\"

Key Charts

Page: /

Download the report

\"],\"BodyTop\":\"

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Thursday 13 July 2023

\",\"MainBottom\":\"

Download Report

\",\"Resources\":\"\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-41","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":149111,"name":"Comparative Analysis JULY 23","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-july-23.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-july-23.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":4962,"created":"2023-06-15T08:50:00","date":"2023-06-14T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"June 2023 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

Oil Market Context

Fragile economic outlook persists

The OECD's updated global economic outlook, released on June 6th, noted that the global economy \\\"has begun to improve, but the recovery will be weak.\\\" The global GDP growth projections for 2023 and 2024 were unchanged from March's forecast at 2.7% and 2.9%, respectively. The report noted that the balance of risks remains skewed to the downside as inflation could prove more persistent than expected. OPEC's 2023 oil demand forecast assumes global GDP growth of 2.6%. IEA did not include its GDP assumption in this month's report.

Production cuts plus

OPEC+ met on June 4th and agreed to extend current crude production cuts through 2024. The cuts had been scheduled to expire at the end of 2023. In addition, Saudi Arabia announced an extra voluntary cut of 1 mb/d for the month of July 2023 that may be extended. OPEC+ stated that these efforts are to provide long-term guidance for the market while being \\\"precautious, proactive, and pre-emptive.\\\" The group also agreed to adjust some members' baseline levels to better reflect their current maximum production capacity. The new baselines go into effect in 2024. The next OPEC+ Ministerial meeting is scheduled for November 26, 2023.

US rig count falters

The US oil and gas rig count has fallen for 6 consecutive weeks for the first time since July 2020. The latest figure, for June 9, 2023, shows oil and gas rigs stand at 695 – the lowest level since April 2022 and more than 11% below the post-COVID peak seen in early December 2022. The US rig count is closely watched as an early indicator of US production. However, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA forecasts see US production growing by ~1 mb/d this year, accounting for more than half of all non-OPEC supply growth.

Russian exports take to the sea

Tanker tracking data shows Russian seaborne crude exports rose to a post-war high of 3.9 mb/d in May, while oil product exports fell 13% month-on-month due primarily to seasonal refinery maintenance. The increase in seaborne crude exports is due in part to reduced pipeline exports to Europe and lower domestic refinery runs. Nearly 90% of the seaborne crude exports are now headed to Asia and Türkiye, up from pre-war levels of ~35%. India imported 2 mb/d of Russian crude in May, a record high.

\",\"

2023 Forecast Highlights:

Global demand:
- IEA and OPEC remain fairly aligned on global demand growth (~2.3-2.4 mb/d), while EIA sees lower growth (1.6 mb/d).
- This month, IEA revised up its 2023 demand growth forecast by 0.2 mb/d primarily on higher Chinese demand.
- IEA sees ~0.7 mb/d higher Chinese demand growth this year vs. EIA and OPEC with 1.5 mb/d vs. 0.8 mb/d, respectively.
- OPEC and IEA see global demand averaging above 103 mb/d by 4Q23, whereas EIA's quarterly forecast remains below 102 mb/d.

Non-OPEC and OPEC NGL supply:
- EIA sees the strongest non-OPEC and OPEC NGL supply growth this year at 2.1 mb/d. IEA and OPEC are more closely aligned at 1.7 mb/d and 1.5 mb/d, respectively.
- The largest divergence in supply forecasts is in Russian production. OPEC sees a 0.7 mb/d decline in Russian output this year vs. IEA's and EIA's forecast of a 0.2-0.3 mb/d decline.
- All three forecasters expect the US to be the largest driver of non-OPEC supply growth, adding ~1 mb/d of new supply this year.

\\\"Call on OPEC\\\":
- IEA and OPEC see the \\\"call on OPEC\\\" rising to 30.2-30.6 mb/d in the second half of the year. This implies a >2 mb/d global supply shortfall in 2H23 if OPEC production were to remain constant at May levels (28.07 mb/d).
- EIA's 2023 \\\"call on OPEC\\\" is 2.0 mb/d lower than IEA's due to EIA's lower demand and higher supply forecasts.

May OPEC production:
- OPEC secondary sources show OPEC production declined by 0.46 mb/d in May to 28.1 mb/d led by a 0.5 mb/d cut from Saudi Arabia. IEA estimates show OPEC crude production falling by 0.38 mb/d in May to 28.5 mb/d led by a 0.5 mb/d decline from Saudi Arabia. IEA estimates a higher production figure for Iran and UAE vs. OPEC secondary sources.

OECD inventories:
- IEA estimates OECD commercial inventories rose by 33.6 mb in April to 2,795 mb and stood 86.4 mb below the five-year average. OPEC estimates OECD commercial stocks rose by 30.2 mb in April to 2,808 mb and stood 74 mb below the latest five-year average and 119 mb below the 2015-2019 average.

\",\"

2024 Forecast Highlights:

IEA issued its inaugural 2024 forecast this month. OPEC is scheduled to issue its first 2024 outlook in July.

Global demand:
- IEA sees global demand growth slowing to 0.9 mb/d in 2024 from 2.4 mb/d y/y in 2023.
- EIA's 2024 global demand growth forecast is unchanged this month at 1.7 mb/d.
- IEA sees OECD demand declining by 0.4 mb/d next year, with US demand dropping by 0.23 mb/d. Meanwhile, EIA sees OECD growing by 0.25 mb/d, with US increasing by 0.26 mb/d.
- Despite having a lower y/y growth forecast compared to EIA, IEA sees higher demand levels than EIA for most of 2024 due to a higher 2023 baseline forecast. IEA sees quarterly demand rising to 104.4 mb/d by 4Q24 vs. EIA's 103.1 mb/d.

Non-OPEC and OPEC NGL supply:
- Both IEA and EIA see non-OPEC and OPEC NGL supply growing by 1.0-1.1 mb/d in 2024. This is a sharp slowdown from IEA and EIA's 2023 estimates of 1.7 mb/d and 2.1 mb/d, respectively.
- Notably, IEA and EIA both see US production growth slowing to 0.4 mb/d next year from ~1.0 mb/d this year. Despite a significant slowdown, the US is still the strongest driver of non-OPEC supply growth in 2024. Canada, Brazil, and Norway are also expected to contribute growth next year.
- IEA sees a slightly steeper drop in Russian production at -0.2 mb/d vs EIA's -0.1 mb/d.

\\\"Call on OPEC\\\":
- IEA's balance implies OPEC would need to produce an average 29.4 mb/d in 2024 to balance the market. This is 1.3 mb/d higher than the group produced in May 2023.
- EIA's balance implies OPEC would need to produce an average of 28.4 mb/d in 2024 to balance the market. This is 0.3 mb/d higher than the group produced in May 2023.
- EIA's 2024 \\\"Call on OPEC\\\" is 1.0 mb/d lower than IEA's largely due to wide divergences in the 2023 baseline forecasts.

\",\"

Key Charts

Page: /

Download the report

\"],\"BodyTop\":\"

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Wednesday 14 June 2023

\",\"MainBottom\":\"

Download Report

\",\"Resources\":\"\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-40","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":148954,"name":"Comparative Analysis JUNE 23","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-june-23.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-june-23.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]},{"id":148955,"name":"IEF Comparative Analysis June 2023","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/june-2023/ief-comparative-analysis-06-2023.pdf","type":"d","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/june-2023/ief-comparative-analysis-06-2023.pdf","fileExt":"pdf","tags":[]},{"id":148956,"name":"Key Charts 06 2023","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/june-2023/key-charts-06-2023.pdf","type":"d","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/june-2023/key-charts-06-2023.pdf","fileExt":"pdf","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":4938,"created":"2023-05-22T09:34:00","date":"2023-05-22T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"May 2023 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA","details":"{\"Main\":\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

Wildfires in Canada shut in production

On 6 May, the province of Alberta declared a state of emergency as more than 100 active fires burned across the energy-rich province. Some oil and gas producers in the province of Alberta temporarily stopped production shuttering almost 4 percent of national energy production. Companies have since restarted production but remain on high alert. Canada is the world's fourth-largest crude producer and about 80 percent of its oil comes from Alberta. The fires primarily affected light oil and natural gas producers.

Indian power demand surges to record high

Soaring temperatures across India coupled with higher manufacturing capacity utilization pushed the country's electricity demand to a record high in late April – 2 percent higher than last summer's maximum. The government is meeting increased demand for power including ensuring availability of generation capacity, by increasing production and imports of coal, and greater procurement of LNG from abroad.

Oil and natural gas prices fall but uncertainties and risks remain

Lower power demand amid mild spring weather in most of Europe and high inventories due to record LNG imports over the last year has lowered global gas prices. Spot LNG prices for delivery to North Asia in June have plunged in recent weeks and were down for a third consecutive week amid weak demand and high inventories in Asia. Despite the relative calm on energy markets, uncertainties around economic recovery and weather patterns, and risks of more supply disruptions are likely to impact energy markets.

Global refining capacity forecast to see largest increase in 45 years

Global refining capacity will increase by 1.5 mb/d in 2023 and by another 2.4 mb/d in 2024 which is the largest two-year increase in almost half a century according to RBC Capital Markets. Previously delayed projects during the pandemic are now moving ahead and new projects seek to accommodate growing demand for fuels and petrochemicals primarily in non-OECD markets. While new refining capacity will bring down margins in the medium-term, it may provide greater supply security and ease inflationary pressures during a time of crisis.

Major Economies Forum announces Carbon Management Challenge

On 20 April, Australia, Canada, Egypt, the European Union, Japan, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States, as well as Norway and Denmark, launched the Carbon Management Challenge. Further announcements to accelerate the development and deployment of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies will be announced at COP28.

G7 agree to the phase-out of unabated fossil fuels by 2050

On 16 April, G7 countries' climate ministers agreed to speed up the phaseout of unabated fossil fuels. In a joint statement at their meeting in Sapporo, Japan, the ministers agreed \\\"to accelerate the phase-out of unabated fossil fuels so as to achieve net zero in energy systems by 2050 at the latest\\\". The ministers stopped short of endorsing a 2030 deadline for phasing out coal and left the door open for continued investment in natural gas.

2. KEY POINTS

2.1 DEMAND

IEA, OPEC, and EIA global demand growth assessments rise.

The IEA and OPEC year-on-year (y-o-y) demand growth assessments for 2023 rise to 2.21 mb/d and 2.33 mb/d, a growth of 180 kb/d and 10 kb/d, respectively.
The EIA's growth forecast also rises by 120 kb/d for a growth of 1.56 mb/d in 2023.
The IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimates for absolute world demand are now 102.01 mb/d, 101.90 mb/d, and 100.99 mb/d for 2023, respectively.

IEA and EIA OECD demand growth assessments rise while OPEC falls slightly.

The IEA's assessment of y-o-y OECD demand growth rises by 90 kb/d to 0.35 mb/d, while EIA's estimate rises by 70 kb/d to 0.08 mb/d. OPEC's OECD demand growth falls by 70 kb/d to 0.07 mb/d.
The IEA, OPEC and the EIA non-OECD demand growth assessments rise by 100 kb/d, 80 kb/d mb/d, and 50 kb/d for a growth of 1.86 mb/d, 2.26 mb/d, and 1.48 mb/d, respectively.
The largest divergence in OECD and non-OECD demand growth estimates are between the IEA and the OPEC and EIA and OPEC at 0.28 and 0.78, respectively.

2.2 SUPPLY

IEA and EIA non-OPEC supply growth assessments fall slightly while OPEC remains steady.

The IEA's May 2023 assessment for non-OPEC supply falls by 20 kb/d to reach a growth of 1.49 mb/d while OPEC's estimate remains the same at 1.43 mb/d. The EIA's assessment also falls by 40 kb/d for an overall growth of 1.89 mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA estimate non-OPEC supply at 67.01 mb/d, 67.19 mb/d, and 67.58 mb/d, respectively for 2023.
The IEA estimates OECD oil supply growth this year at 1.15 mb/d, OPEC pegs it at 1.46 mb/d, and the EIA reports growth at 1.56 mb/d, a decrease of 140 kb/d for the IEA, a decrease of 100 kb/d for EIA, and a rise of 30 kb/d for OPEC. In absolute terms, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA estimate OECD oil supply at 30.41 mb/d, 32.35 mb/d, and 33.82 mb/d, respectively for 2023. The largest divergence of OECD supply growth estimates is between the EIA and the IEA at 410 kb/d.

IEA and EIA report rises in non-OECD supply while OPEC falls slightly.

The IEA's assessment for non-OECD supply rises by 130 kb/d to 0.12 mb/d.
OPEC's non-OECD growth falls slightly by 30 kb/d for a decline of 0.10 mb/d while the EIA revised its non-OECD growth forecast up by 50 kb/d for a growth of 0.33 mb/d.
In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA non-OECD supply estimates are 31.11 mb/d, 32.37 mb/d, and 33.76 mb/d, respectively for 2023 with the largest divergence in growth estimates between OPEC and EIA at 430 kb/d.

IEA and OPEC report decreases in OPEC production, while EIA reports an increased output in April.

The IEA reported OPEC production fell by 310 kb/d to 28.85 mb/d.
OPEC showed OPEC production fell month-on-month by 190 kb/d to 28.60 mb/d.
The EIA assessed OPEC production at 28.65 mb/d, up 40 kb/d month-on-month.

2.3 STOCKS

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA continue to display alignment on stock figures with inventories back below the five-year average, and all agencies see 60 or more days of forward cover.

The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 2753 mb, which is close to OPEC's assessment of 2808 mb and the EIA's assessment of 2804 mb. These are around 89 mb below, 34 mb below, and 37 mb below the five-year average, respectively.
According to the IEA, crude oil inventories built by 1.6 mb while product stocks drew by 51.5 mb. Other oils, including NGLs and feedstocks drew by 6.5 mb. According to OPEC, crude oil stocks drew by 4.9 mb while products drew by 26.8 mb.
The widest divergence in inventories is between the OPEC and the EIA at 55 mb. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 463 mb, according to the EIA, which is 1 percent below the five-year average for this time of year.

2.4 SNAPSHOT (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

Explanatory Note

The IEF conducts a comprehensive comparative analysis of the short-, medium-, and long-term energy outlooks of the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA to inform the IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks that the IEF hosts in Riyadh as part of the trilateral work programme on a yearly basis.

To inform IEF stakeholders on how perspectives on the oil market of both organisations evolve over time regularly, this monthly summary provides:

An overview of key events and initiatives in the international policy and market context.
Key findings and a snapshot overview of data points gained from comparing basic historical data and short-term forecasts of the IEA Oil Market Report, the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, and the EIA Short-term Energy Outlook.
A comparative analysis of oil inventory data reported by the IEA, OPEC, and EIA, and secondary sources in collaboration with Kayrros (added in an updated report on the IEF website).

The International Energy Forum

The International Energy Forum is the leading global facilitator of dialogue between sovereign energy market participants. It incorporates members of International Energy Agency and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and also key players including China, India, Russia and South Africa. The forum's biennial ministerial meetings are the world's largest gathering of energy ministers, where discussions focus on global energy security and the transition towards a sustainable and inclusive energy future. The forum has a permanent secretariat of international staff based in the Diplomatic Quarter of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. For more information visit www.ief.org.

\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-39","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":148756,"name":"Comparative Analysis MAY 23","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-may-23.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-may-23.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":4916,"created":"2023-04-17T14:59:00","date":"2023-04-17T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"April 2023 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA","details":"{\"Main\":\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

US introduces strongest-ever emission rules to expand clean transportation

On 12 April, The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed emissions cuts for new cars and trucks through 2032. If standards are met, the EPA projects that EVs could account for 67 percent of new light-duty vehicle sales and 46 percent of new medium-duty vehicle sales in 2032. more stringent rules to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from heavy-duty vehicles including trucks, transit, and haulers will take effect in model year 2027.

China to build west-to-east green hydrogen transmission pipeline

China's Sinopec will build a pipeline to transfer hydrogen from renewable energy projects in China's northwestern region to cities in its east. The west-to-east hydrogen transmission pipeline will stretch more than 400 km and will have an initial capacity of 100,000 tonnes per year. The project is the country's first green hydrogen transmission line and part of a target to produce 100,000 to 200,000 tonnes of green hydrogen a year and have about 50,000 hydrogen-fueled vehicles by 2025.

OPEC+ countries announce precautionary output cuts

On 2 April, OPEC+ countries announced to cut their oil production by about 1.16 mb/d, widening total crude oil production cuts to 3.66 mb/d for 2023. The move is seen as a precautionary measure against recession risks and aims to support the stability of the oil market. Brent crude rose more than 6 percent, to nearly $85 a barrel while WTI crude was up by a similar amount, trading over $80 a barrel. The voluntary cuts start from May and last until the end of the year. The IEA reports that the cuts will push world oil supply down 400 kb/d by end-2023. From March-December, gains of 1 mb/d from non-OPEC+ will fail to offset a 1.4 mb/d decline from the producer bloc.

International Monetary Fund forecasts sharper economic slowdown

The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook forecasts economic growth to fall from 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.8 percent in 2023, before settling at 3.0 percent in 2024. Advanced economies are expected to see an especially pronounced growth slowdown, from 2.7 percent in 2022 to 1.3 percent in 2023. Global headline inflation in the baseline is set to fall from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 7.0 percent in 2023 on the back of lower commodity prices but underlying (core) inflation is likely to decline more slowly. Inflation's return to target is unlikely before 2025 in most cases.

2. KEY POINTS

2.1 DEMAND

IEA and OPEC demand growth remains steady while EIA estimates fall slightly.

The IEA and OPEC year-on-year (y-o-y) demand growth assessments for 2023 remains the same at 2.03 mb/d and 2.32 mb/d, respectively.
The EIA's growth forecast falls by 40 kb/d for a growth of 1.44 mb/d in 2023.
The IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimates for absolute world demand are now 101.94 mb/d, 101.89 mb/d, and 100.87 mb/d for 2023, respectively.

IEA, OPEC, and EIA OECD demand growth assessments fall.

The IEA's assessment of y-o-y OECD demand growth rises by 150 kb/d to 0.26 mb/d, while EIA's estimate falls by 80 kb/d to 0.01 mb/d. OPEC's OECD demand growth also falls by 90 kb/d to 0.14 mb/d.
The IEA, OPEC and the EIA non-OECD demand growth assessments rise by 140 kb/d, 90 kb/d mb/d, and 40 kb/d for a growth of 1.76 mb/d, 2.18 mb/d, and 1.43 mb/d, respectively.
The largest divergence in OECD and non-OECD demand growth estimates are between the IEA and the EIA at 0.25 mb/d and between the EIA and OPEC at 0.75 mb/d, respectively.

2.2 SUPPLY

IEA and EIA non-OPEC supply growth assessments rise while OPEC remains steady.

The IEA's April 2023 assessment for non-OPEC supply rises by 240 kb/d to reach a growth of 1.51 mb/d while OPEC's estimate falls slightly by 10 kb/d at 1.43 mb/d. The EIA's assessment also rises by 210 kb/d for an overall growth of 1.93 mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA estimate non-OPEC supply at 67.05 mb/d, 67.19 mb/d, and 67.61 mb/d, respectively for 2023.
The IEA estimates OECD oil supply growth this year at 1.29 mb/d, OPEC pegs it at 1.43 mb/d, and the EIA reports growth at 1.66 mb/d, an increase of 40 kb/d for the IEA, a decrease of 20 kb/d for OPEC, and no change for the EIA. In absolute terms, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA estimate OECD oil supply at 30.55 mb/d, 32.32 mb/d, and 33.89 mb/d, respectively for 2023. The largest divergence of OECD supply growth estimates is between the EIA and the IEA at 370 kb/d.

IEA, OPEC, and EIA all report rises in non-OECD supply for 2023.

The IEA's assessment for non-OECD supply rises by 190 kb/d compared to a decline of 0.01 mb/d in 2023.
OPEC's non-OECD growth rises slightly by 10 kb/d for a decline of 0.07 mb/d while the EIA revised its non-OECD growth forecast up by 210 kb/d for a growth of 0.28 mb/d.
In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA non-OECD supply estimates are 31.02 mb/d, 32.40 mb/d, and 33.72 mb/d, respectively for 2023 with the largest divergence in growth estimates between the IEA and the EIA is 0.35 mb/d.

IEA and OPEC report decreases in OPEC production, while EIA reports an increased output in March.

The IEA reported OPEC production fell by 140 kb/d in March to 29.09 mb/d.
OPEC showed OPEC production fell month-on-month by 90 kb/d to 28.80 mb/d.
The EIA assessed OPEC production at 28.57 mb/d, up 40 kb/d month-on-month.

2.3 STOCKS

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA continue to display alignment on stock figures with OPEC reporting inventories above the five-year average. The IEA and the EIA report inventories below the five-year average while all agencies see more than 60 days of forward cover.

The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 2840 mb, which is close to OPEC's assessment of 2865 mb and the EIA's assessment of 2805 mb. These are around 8 mb below, 18 mb above, and 29 mb below the five-year average, respectively.
According to the IEA, crude oil inventories built by 24.2 mb while product stocks drew by 17.9 mb. Other oils, including NGLs and feedstocks built by 3.3 mb. According to OPEC, crude oil stocks built by 20.9 mb while products drew by 6.8 mb.
The widest divergence in inventories is between the OPEC and the EIA at 60 mb. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 471 mb, according to the EIA, which is 3 percent above the five-year average for this time of year.

2.4 SNAPSHOT (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

Explanatory Note

To inform IEF stakeholders on how perspectives on the oil market of both organisations evolve over time regularly, this monthly summary provides:

An overview of key events and initiatives in the international policy and market context.
Key findings and a snapshot overview of data points gained from comparing basic historical data and short-term forecasts of the IEA Oil Market Report, the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, and the EIA Short-term Energy Outlook.
A comparative analysis of oil inventory data reported by the IEA, OPEC, and EIA, and secondary sources in collaboration with Kayrros (added in an updated report on the IEF website).

The International Energy Forum

\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-38","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":148649,"name":"Comparative Analysis APR 23","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-apr-23.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-apr-23.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":4888,"created":"2023-03-20T14:28:00","date":"2023-03-20T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"March 2023 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA","details":"{\"Main\":\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

US announces policies and funding for decarbonization and clean technologies

On 8 March, US Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm announced two main policies related to clean energy. The Pathways to Commercial Liftoff aims to reduce regulatory barriers for four key technologies including clean hydrogen, advanced nuclear, carbon management, and long duration storage. The DoE is also committing $6 billion to accelerate industrial decarbonization projects, providing the US with a competitive edge in developing the world’s least carbon-intensive iron and steel, aluminum, cement, concrete, glass, pulp and paper, industrial ceramics, and chemicals. Secretary Granholm stated that oil and gas will remain a part of the energy mix for years to come and energy companies must step up to build critical technologies at scale.

US approves $7 billion oil project in Alaska

On 13 March, the US approved the ConocoPhillips oil and gas drilling Willow project in Alaska. The scaled-back version of the project includes three drill sites and less surface infrastructure than originally proposed to reduce environmental risk. Located in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska, the Willow project is estimated to produce 180 kb/d at its peak and projected to deliver between $8 billion to $17 billion in new revenue for the federal government, the state of Alaska, and local communities.

SVB Bank collapse impacts clean technology investment

On 10 March, Silicon Valley Bank faced a sudden bank run and capital crisis and was subsequently taken over by federal regulators. SVB’s lending portfolio consists of clean technology start-ups and smaller projects considered too risky for traditional banks, and its collapse further limits the ability of such projects to attract capital on US Federal Reserve rate increases. While US regulators have stepped in to enable investors and company founders to access their funds, the failure creates a more challenging and uncertain financial landscape amidst persistently high inflation and recession fears. The banking collapse is the largest failure of a US bank since the 2008 Financial Crisis.

India invokes emergency law to boost coal-based power

On 20 February, India invoked an emergency law to force power plants that run on imported coal to maximize output ahead of an expected record surge in power usage this summer. Power plants that use imported coal have not functioned at full capacity due to the difficulty of competing with power generated from inexpensive domestic coal. The directive comes into effect on March 16, giving plants the time to import coal ahead of the expected surge in consumption and would remain valid till 15 June.

EU carbon price hits record high at 100 euros

On 21 February, the cost of European pollution permits rose to €100 for the first time boosted by an improving economic outlook. The surge in carbon prices comes as policy makers work to tighten the EU’s cap-and-trade system to help the bloc deliver on a goal to slash emissions 55 percent by the end of the decade from 1990 levels. Prices were driven up due to expectations of colder weather and low wind speeds that increased the demand for permits from fossil fuel power generators. EU companies have an April deadline to buy and submit enough permits to cover last year’s emissions.

2. KEY POINTS

2.1 DEMAND

IEA and EIA demand growth rises for 2023 while OPEC estimates remain steady.

The IEA and EIA year-on-year (y-o-y) demand growth assessments for 2023 rise by 70 kb/d and 370 kb/d to 2.03 mb/d and 1.48 mb/d, respectively.
OPEC’s growth forecast remains the same at 2.32 mb/d in 2023.
The IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimates for absolute world demand are now 102.02 mb/d, 101.90 mb/d, and 100.90 mb/d for 2023, respectively.

IEA and EIA OECD demand growth rises while OPEC reports a decrease.

The IEA's assessment of y-o-y OECD demand growth rises by 20 kb/d to 0.41 mb/d, while EIA’s estimate rises by 360 kb/d to 0.09 mb/d. OPEC’s OECD demand growth falls by 120 kb/d to 0.23 mb/d.
The IEA, OPEC and IEA non-OECD demand growth assessments rise by 50 kb/d, 130 kb/d mb/d, and 10 kb/d for a growth of 1.62 mb/d, 2.09 mb/d, and 1.39 mb/d, respectively.
The largest divergence in OECD and non-OECD demand growth estimates are between IEA and EIA at 0.32 mb/d and between EIA and OPEC at 0.70 mb/d, respectively.

2.2 SUPPLY

IEA and EIA non-OPEC supply growth assessments rise while OPEC remains steady.

The IEA’s March 2023 assessment for non-OPEC supply rises by 320 kb/d to reach a growth of 1.27 mb/d while OPEC’s estimate remains the same at 1.44 mb/d. The EIA’s assessment rises by 480 kb/d for an overall growth of 1.72 mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA estimate non-OPEC supply at 66.93 mb/d, 67.20 mb/d, and 67.42 mb/d, respectively for 2023.
The IEA estimates OECD oil supply growth this year at 1.25 mb/d, OPEC pegs it at 1.45 mb/d, and EIA reports growth at 1.66 mb/d, a decrease of 10 kb/d for IEA, a decrease of 140 kb/d for OPEC, and an increase of 60 kb/d for the EIA. In absolute terms, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA estimate OECD oil supply at 30.62 mb/d, 32.34 mb/d, and 33.91 mb/d, respectively for 2023. The largest divergence of OECD supply growth estimates is between EIA and IEA at 410 kb/d.

IEA, OPEC, and EIA all report rises in non-OECD supply for 2023.

The IEA’s assessment for non-OECD supply rises by 330 kb/d for a decline of 0.20 mb/d in 2023.
OPEC’s growth rises slightly by 140 kb/d for a decline of 0.08 mb/d while the EIA revised its non-OECD growth forecast up by 430 kb/d for a growth of 0.07 mb/d.
In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA non-OECD supply estimates are 30.83 mb/d, 32.39 mb/d, and 33.51 mb/d, respectively for 2023 with the largest divergence in growth estimates between the IEA and EIA at 0.27 mb/d.

IEA, OPEC and EIA report increases in OPEC output in February.

The IEA reported OPEC production rose by 70 kb/d in February to 29.17 mb/d.
OPEC showed OPEC production rose month-on-month by 120 kb/d to 28.92 mb/d.
EIA assessed OPEC production at 28.42 mb/d, up 150 kb/d month-on-month.

2.3 STOCKS

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA continue to display strong alignment on stock figures which are below the five-year average and at 60 days or more of forward cover.

The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 2851 mb, which is close to OPEC’s assessment of 2802 mb and EIA’s assessment of 2806 mb. These are around 26 mb, 75 mb, and 57 mb below the five-year average, respectively.
According to the IEA, crude oil inventories built by 32.2 mb while product stocks built by 24.3 mb. Other oils, including NGLs and feedstocks drew by 1.6 mb. According to OPEC, crude oil stocks built by 10.5 mb while products built by 24.5 mb.
The widest divergence in inventories is between the IEA and OPEC at 49 mb. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 479 mb, according to the EIA, which is 7 percent above the five-year average for this time of year.

2.4 SNAPSHOT (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-37","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":148475,"name":"Comparative Analysis MAR 23","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-mar-23.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-mar-23.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":4805,"created":"2023-02-23T11:22:00","date":"2023-02-23T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"February 2023 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA","details":"{\"Main\":\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

Pakistan to quadruple coal-fired power due to surging natural gas prices

On 14 February, Pakistan announced it will quadruple domestic coal-fired capacity and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming years. A surge in global prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) after Russia's invasion of Ukraine coupled with an economic crisis has made LNG unaffordable for the country. Despite power demand increasing in 2022, Pakistan's annual LNG imports fell to the lowest levels in five years as LNG flows were directed towards Europe and away from price-sensitive consumers.

Russia to cut oil output by 500,000 barrels per day in March

On 10 February, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced that Russia will cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day, or around 5 percent of output in March after the West imposed price caps on Russian oil and oil products. The G7 economies, the EU, and Australia agreed to ban the use of Western-supplied maritime insurance, finance and brokering for seaborne Russian oil priced above $60 per barrel from 5 December. The EU also implemented a ban on purchases of Russian oil products and set price caps from 5 February. The production cut is in addition to a Russian ban on crude exports to countries that implement the price cap which took effect on 1 February.

Japan adopts policy to operate nuclear reactors beyond 60-year limit

On 10 February, the Japanese government has approved a policy to allow new nuclear power reactors to be constructed and the operation of existing reactors to be extended. On 13 February, the Japanese Nuclear Regulation Authority approved the new legislation. Under the new system, additional operating extensions can be granted every 10 years after 30 years of service. This is a major shift away from the current 40-year operating limit with a possible one-time extension of up to 20 years. The government's new \\\"green transformation\\\" policy features extensive use of nuclear power along with renewable energy.

South Africa declares \\\"state of disaster\\\" amid power crisis

On 9 February, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa declared a national \\\"state of disaster\\\" over the country's power shortages. State electricity utility Eskom is implementing the worst rolling blackouts on record, impacting households, disrupting manufacturing, and hurting businesses. Declaring a national state of disaster gives the government additional powers to respond to a crisis, including the permitting of emergency procurement procedures with fewer bureaucratic delays and less oversight.

2. KEY POINTS

2.1 DEMAND

IEA, OPEC, and EIA demand growth estimates rise for 2023.

The IEA and EIA year-on-year (y-o-y) demand growth assessments for 2023 rise by 90 kb/d and 100 kb/d to 1.96 mb/d and 1.11 mb/d, respectively.
OPEC’s forecast rises by 100 kb/d for a growth of 2.32 mb/d in 2023.
The IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimates for absolute world demand are now 101.92 mb/d, 101.87 mb/d, and 100.47 mb/d for 2023, respectively.

IEA and EIA OECD demand growth falls while OPEC reports a slight increase.

The IEA's assessment of y-o-y OECD demand growth falls by 80 kb/d to 0.39 mb/d, while EIA’s estimate falls by 100 kb/d to -0.27 mb/d. OPEC’s OECD demand growth rises by 20 kb/d to 0.35 mb/d.
The IEA and EIA estimate for non-OECD demand growth rises by 170 kb/d to 1.57 mb/d and 1.38 mb/d, respectively for 2023 while OPEC’s projection rises by 70 kb/d for a growth of 1.96 mb/d.
The largest divergence in OECD and non-OECD demand growth estimates are between IEA and EIA at 0.66 mb/d and between EIA and OPEC at 0.58 mb/d, respectively.

2.2 SUPPLY

IEA, EIA, and OPEC see greater alignment on non-OPEC supply growth.

The IEA’s February 2023 assessment for non-OPEC supply rises by 230 kb/d to reach a growth of 0.95 mb/d while OPEC’s estimate falls by 100 kb/d to 1.44 mb/d. The EIA’s assessment rises by 270 kb/d for an overall growth of 1.24 mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA estimate non-OPEC supply at 66.65 mb/d, 67.01 mb/d, and 67.02 mb/d, respectively for 2023.
The IEA estimates OECD oil supply growth this year at 1.26 mb/d, OPEC pegs it at 1.59 mb/d, and EIA reports growth at 1.60 mb/d, a decrease of 50 kb/d for IEA and OPEC and a decrease of 80 kb/d for the EIA. In absolute terms, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA estimate OECD oil supply at 30.66 mb/d, 32.30 mb/d, and 33.93 mb/d, respectively for 2023. The largest divergence of OECD supply growth estimates is between EIA and IEA at 340 kb/d.

IEA, OPEC, and EIA all report declines in non-OECD supply for 2023.

The IEA’s assessment for non-OECD supply rises by 270 kb/d for a decline of 0.53 mb/d in 2023.
OPEC’s growth dips slightly by 50 kb/d for a decline of 0.22 mb/d while the EIA revised its non-OECD growth forecast up by 350 kb/d for a decline of 0.36 mb/d.
In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA non-OECD supply estimates are 30.51 mb/d, 32.23 mb/d, and 33.09 mb/d, respectively for 2023 with the largest divergence in growth estimates between the IEA and OPEC at 0.31 mb/d.

IEA, OPEC and EIA report decreases in OPEC output in January.

The IEA reported OPEC production declined by 40 kb/d in December to 29.06 mb/d.
OPEC showed OPEC production fell month-on-month by 490 kb/d to 28.88 mb/d.
EIA assessed OPEC production at 28.30 mb/d, down 530 kb/d month-on-month.

2.3 STOCKS

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA continue to display strong alignment on stock figures which are below the five-year average and at 60 days or more of forward cover.

The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 2767 mb, which is close to OPEC’s assessment of 2768 mb and EIA’s assessment of 2783 mb. These are around 96 mb, 95 mb, and 67 mb below the five-year average, respectively.
According to the IEA, crude oil inventories built by 11.5 mb while product stocks drew by 31.5 mb. Other oils, including NGLs and feedstocks built by 1.9 mb. According to OPEC, crude oil stocks built by 5.2 mb while products drew by 16.2 mb.
The widest divergence in inventories is between the IEA and EIA at 16 mb. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 471 mb, according to the EIA, which is 8 percent above the five-year average for this time of year.

2.4 SNAPSHOT (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

Explanatory Note

To inform IEF stakeholders on how perspectives on the oil market of both organisations evolve over time regularly, this monthly summary provides:

An overview of key events and initiatives in the international policy and market context.
Key findings and a snapshot overview of data points gained from comparing basic historical data and short-term forecasts of the IEA Oil Market Report, the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, and the EIA Short-term Energy Outlook.
A comparative analysis of oil inventory data reported by the IEA, OPEC, and EIA, and secondary sources in collaboration with Kayrros (added in an updated report on the IEF website).

The International Energy Forum

\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-36","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":148230,"name":"Comparative Analysis FEB 23","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-feb-23.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-feb-23.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":4748,"created":"2023-01-23T11:37:00","date":"2023-01-23T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"January 2023 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA","details":"{\"Main\":\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

The United Arab Emirates appoints Head of COP28 Climate Conference

On 12 January, Sultan al-Jaber, chief executive of state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), was appointed as President of COP28 which will take place in the United Arab Emirates later this year. The new president called for a tripling of renewable energy generation by 2030 while highlighting the need for oil and gas from the \\\"least carbon intensive producers\\\". He also stressed the need for an inclusive and just transition that leaves no one behind.

Russia bans oil exports to countries that implement price cap

On 27 December 2022, President Vladimir Putin signed a decree that bans the supply of crude oil from 1 February for five months to G7 nations, Australia, and EU Member states. This is in response to the $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil that the international Price Cap Coalition agreed to on 3 December and implemented on 5 December 2022. The price cap enables operators from these countries to transport Russian crude to third countries provided its price remains strictly below the cap. The date for the oil products ban will be determined by the Russian government according to the decree.

EU energy ministers reach agreement on natural gas price cap

On 19 December, EU ministers agreed to cap the price of natural gas to manage the cost of soaring energy prices after the European Union exceeded its pledge to reduce its gas imports from Russia by at least two thirds by 2023 and Russia cut off most natural gas supplies to Europe. The cap will be imposed when prices on the main European gas exchange, the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), exceed €180 a megawatt-hour for three consecutive working days and are €35/MWh above a reference price based on existing LNG price assessments for three days. The cap comes into effect on 15 February and will apply for one year.

Oil prices remain steady as US crude inventories report third-largest increase on record

On 6 January, it was announced that US crude inventories rose by 19 million barrels in the first week of January to about 440 million barrels, contrary to expert expectations. The stock build was the largest weekly build since February 2021, and the third-largest increase on record. Oil prices rose marginally on an improved global economic outlook, driven by a return of Chinese demand and the impact of sanctions on Russian crude output.

Iran natural gas exports to Türkiye fall by 70 percent

As of 1 January, the supply of natural gas from Iran to Türkiye is down 70 percent due to a fault in the Iranian network, according to Turkish state energy company BOTAS. In January 2022, Iran cut gas exports to Türkiye for around two weeks due to a leak, forcing Türkiye to cut power supply to industry. Iran is Türkiye's second-largest supplier of natural gas after Russia.

2. KEY POINTS

2.1 DEMAND

IEA and EIA demand growth estimates rise for 2023 while OPEC's assessment falls slightly.

The IEA and EIA year-on-year (y-o-y) demand growth assessments for 2023 rise by 160 kb/d and 50 kb/d to 1.87 mb/d and 2.22 mb/d, respectively.
OPEC's forecast falls slightly by 30 kb/d for a growth of 2.22 mb/d in 2023.
The IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimates for absolute world demand are now 101.72 mb/d, 101.77 mb/d, and 100.48 mb/d for 2023, respectively.

IEA non-OECD demand growth rises while OPEC and EIA report decreases.

The IEA's assessment of y-o-y non-OECD demand growth rises by 80 kb/d to 1.40 mb/d, while OPEC's estimate falls by 20 kb/d to 1.89 mb/d. EIA non-OECD demand growth also falls by 40 kb/d to 1.21 mb/d.
The IEA's estimate for OECD demand growth rises by 80 kb/d to 0.47 mb/d for 2023 while OPEC's projection remains the same at 0.33 mb/d. EIA demand growth rises by 80 kb/d for a decline of 0.17 mb/d.
The largest divergence in OECD and non-OECD demand growth estimates are between IEA and EIA at 0.64 mb/d and between EIA and OPEC at 0.68 mb/d, respectively.

2.2 SUPPLY

OPEC reports greater non-OPEC supply growth while IEA and EIA estimates see closer alignment.

The IEA's January 2023 assessment for non-OPEC supply rises by 90 kb/d to reach a growth of 0.72 mb/d while OPEC's estimate remains the same at 1.54 mb/d. The EIA's assessment rises by 30 kb/d for an overall growth of 0.97 mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA estimate non-OPEC supply at 66.42 mb/d, 67.16 mb/d, and 66.77 mb/d, respectively for 2023.
The IEA estimates OECD oil supply growth this year at 1.31 mb/d, OPEC pegs it at 1.64 mb/d, and EIA reports growth at 1.68 mb/d, a decrease of 60 kb/d, an increase of 10 kb/d, and an increase of 230 kb/d, respectively. In absolute terms, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA estimate OECD oil supply at 30.72 mb/d, 32.37 mb/d, and 34.00 mb/d, respectively for 2023. The largest divergence of OECD supply growth estimates is between EIA and IEA at 370 kb/d.

IEA, OPEC, and EIA all report declines in non-OECD supply for 2023.

The IEA's assessment for non-OECD supply falls by 120 kb/d for a decline of 0.80 mb/d in 2023.
OPEC's growth dips slightly by 10 kb/d for a decline of 170 kb/d while the EIA revised its non-OECD growth forecast down by 70 kb/d for a decline of 710 kb/d.
In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA non-OECD supply estimates are 30.23 mb/d, 32.32 mb/d, and 32.76 mb/d, respectively for 2023 with the largest divergence in growth estimates between the IEA and OPEC at 0.63 mb/d.

OPEC and EIA report increases in OPEC output in December while IEA reports a slight decrease.

The IEA reported OPEC production declined by 40 kb/d in December to 29.19 mb/d.
OPEC showed OPEC production rose month-on-month by 910 kb/d to 28.97 mb/d.
EIA assessed OPEC production at 28.93 mb/d, up 190 kb/d month-on-month.

2.3 STOCKS

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA continue to display strong alignment on stock figures which are below the five-year average and at 60 days forward cover.

The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 2779 mb, which is close to OPEC's assessment of 2768 mb and EIA's assessment of 2785 mb. These are around 126 mb, 137 mb, and 107 mb below the five-year average, respectively.
According to the IEA, crude oil inventories drew by 19.8 mb while product stocks built by 23.6 mb. Other oils, including NGLs and feedstocks drew by 2.9 mb. According to OPEC, crude oil stocks drew by 25.8 mb while products built by 28.5 mb.
The widest divergence in inventories is between the EIA and OPEC at 18 mb. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 440 mb, according to the EIA, which is 1 percent above the five-year average for this time of year.

2.4 SNAPSHOT (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

Explanatory Note

To inform IEF stakeholders on how perspectives on the oil market of both organisations evolve over time regularly, this monthly summary provides:

An overview of key events and initiatives in the international policy and market context.
Key findings and a snapshot overview of data points gained from comparing basic historical data and short-term forecasts of the IEA Oil Market Report, the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, and the EIA Short-term Energy Outlook.
A comparative analysis of oil inventory data reported by the IEA, OPEC, and EIA, and secondary sources in collaboration with Kayrros (added in an updated report on the IEF website).

The International Energy Forum

\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-35","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":147603,"name":"Comparative Analysis JAN 23","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-jan-23.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-jan-23.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":4716,"created":"2023-01-03T08:07:00","date":"2022-12-15T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"December 2022 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA","details":"{\"Main\":\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

G7, EU and Australia agree to Russian oil price cap

On 2 December, the G7, EU, and Australia agreed to set a limit on the price of Russian oil at $60 per barrel to \\\"prevent Russia from profiting from its war of aggression against Ukraine\\\". The plan allows shipping service providers to carry Russian oil, but only at enforced low prices. The price cap, effective from 5 December, comes on top of the EU's embargo on imports of Russian crude by sea and similar pledges by the United States, Canada, Japan, and the UK. A separate price cap will be introduced on 5 February 2023 for Russian petroleum products. Russia has threatened to cut oil production in response.

Chinese re-opening raises optimism for short-term demand

On 7 December, China eased COVID-19-related checks and other barriers for movement within regions in the country, allowing patients with less severe symptoms to quarantine at home instead of staying in isolation facilities along with other measures. This shift in China's zero-COVID policy could revive demand in the world's largest crude market though a sudden relaxation of zero-COVID rules could also pose downside risks.

Spain, France, and Portugal agree to build hydrogen pipeline

On 9 December, Spain, France, and Portugal agreed Friday to build a major undersea pipeline to transport green hydrogen from the Iberian Peninsula to France and eventually to the rest of Europe. The H2Med pipeline will first connect two plants in northern Portugal and northern Spain and then travel under the Mediterranean Sea from Barcelona to Marseille. The pipeline will carry about 2 million tonnes of hydrogen to France annually — 10 percent of the EU´s estimated hydrogen needs. The project is expected to cost $2.6 billion and be ready by 2030.

UK approves first coal mine in 30 years

The UK will build its first coal mine since 1991 which will produce an estimated 2.8 million tonnes of coking coal a year – 85 percent of which will be exported. The coal is intended largely for steelmaking and not to generate electricity. The mine is planned to shut down by the end of 2049, thus not affecting the UK's goal to reach net zero emissions by 2050. The mine will produce an estimated 400,000 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions a year, increasing the UK's emissions by the equivalent of putting 200,000 cars on the road.

OPEC+ policy on oil production remains unchanged

On 4 December, OPEC and non-OPEC producers decided to stay the course on reducing oil production by 2 million barrels per day, or about 2 percent of world demand, from November until the end of 2023. The agreement was put into effect at the 33^rd OPEC and Non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on 5 October 2022. The 35^th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial meeting is scheduled for 4 June 2023.

2. KEY POINTS

2.1 DEMAND

IEA's demand growth estimate rises while OPEC and EIA remain unchanged.

The IEA's demand growth assessment for this year rises by 150 kb/d to 2.26 mb/d (y-o-y).
OPEC and EIA year-on-year (y-o-y) forecasts stay the same at 2.55 mb/d and 2.26 mb/d in 2022, respectively.
The IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimates for absolute world demand are now 99.93 mb/d, 99.56 mb/d, and 99.82 mb/d for 2022, respectively.

IEA non-OECD demand growth rises and is now close to OPEC and EIA estimates.

The IEA's assessment of y-o-y non-OECD demand growth rises by 180 kb/d to 1.00 mb/d, while OPEC's estimate falls by 90 kb/d to 1.18 mb/d. EIA non-OECD demand growth also falls by 50 kb/d to 1.06 mb/d.
The IEA's estimate for OECD demand growth falls by 30 kb/d to 1.26 mb/d for 2022 while OPEC's projection rises by 90 kb/d for a growth of 1.37 mb/d. EIA demand growth rises by 50 kb/d for a growth of 1.20 mb/d.
The largest divergence in OECD and non-OECD demand growth estimates are between OPEC and EIA at 0.17 mb/d and between IEA and OPEC at 0.18 mb/d, respectively.

2.2 SUPPLY

The IEA, OPEC, and the EIA non-OPEC supply growth estimates see alignment.

The IEA's December assessment for non-OPEC supply rises by 130 kb/d to reach a growth of 1.89 mb/d while OPEC's estimate falls by 10 kb/d for a growth of 1.89 mb/d. The EIA's assessment rises by 30 kb/d for an overall growth of 1.84 mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA estimate non-OPEC supply at 65.68 mb/d, 65.57 mb/d, and 65.87 mb/d, respectively for 2022.
The IEA estimates OECD oil supply growth this year at 1.18 mb/d, OPEC pegs it at 1.21 mb/d, and EIA reports growth at 1.22 mb/d, an increase of 70 kb/d, 10 kb/d, and 10 kb/d, respectively. In absolute terms, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA estimate OECD oil supply at 29.46 mb/d, 30.73 mb/d, and 32.34 mb/d, respectively for 2022. The largest divergence of OECD supply growth estimates is between EIA and IEA at 40 kb/d.

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA non-OECD supply growth forecasts move closer.

The IEA's assessment for non-OECD supply rises by 70 kb/d to a total growth of 0.49 mb/d in 2022.
OPEC's growth dips slightly by 10 kb/d for a growth of 0.57 mb/d while the EIA revised its non-OECD growth forecast up by 20 kb/d to a growth of 0.62 mb/d.
In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA non-OECD supply estimates are 31.00 mb/d, 32.44 mb/d, and 33.53 mb/d, respectively for 2022 with the largest divergence in growth estimates between the IEA and EIA at 0.13 mb/d.

The IEA, EIA, and OPEC report a decline in OPEC output in November.

The IEA reported OPEC production declined by 770 kb/d in October to 29.02 mb/d.
OPEC also showed OPEC production fell month-on-month by 744 kb/d to 28.83 mb/d.
EIA assessed OPEC production at 28.68 mb/d, down 550 kb/d month-on-month.

2.3 STOCKS

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA continue to display strong alignment on stock figures which are below the five-year average and close to 60 days forward cover.

The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 2765 mb, which is close to OPEC's assessment of 2748 mb and EIA's assessment of 2764 mb. These are around 150 mb, 168 mb, and 139 mb below the five-year average, respectively.
According to the IEA, crude oil inventories built by 14.2 mb while product stocks drew by 2.8 mb. Other oils, including NGLs and feedstocks built by 5.9 mb. According to OPEC, crude oil stocks built by 12.9 mb while products built by 9.5 mb.
The EIA estimates OECD inventories rose by 25 mb in September to 2764 mb – 139 mb below the five-year average.
The widest divergence in inventories is between the IEA and OPEC at 17 mb. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 414 mb, according to the EIA, which is 9 percent below the five-year average for this time of year.

2.4 SNAPSHOT (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

Explanatory Note

To inform IEF stakeholders on how perspectives on the oil market of both organisations evolve over time regularly, this monthly summary provides:

An overview of key events and initiatives in the international policy and market context.
Key findings and a snapshot overview of data points gained from comparing basic historical data and short-term forecasts of the IEA Oil Market Report, the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, and the EIA Short-term Energy Outlook.
A comparative analysis of oil inventory data reported by the IEA, OPEC, and EIA, and secondary sources in collaboration with Kayrros (added in an updated report on the IEF website).

The International Energy Forum

\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-34","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":147604,"name":"Comparative Analysis December","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-december.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-december.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":4655,"created":"2022-11-21T11:25:00","date":"2022-11-21T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"November 2022 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA","details":"{\"Main\":\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

COP 27 highlights methane reduction as a key focus

Methane Alert and Response System
- On 11 November, the UN Environment Program’s International Methane Emissions Observatory announced the Methane Alert and Response System (MARS), a public database of global methane leaks detected by space satellites. The program builds on the Global Methane Pledge signed by 119 countries to cut methane emissions by 30 percent this decade.
Strengthening US Methane Standards and Updating the US Methane Emissions Reduction Action Plan
- The US will strengthen EPA standards and implement a Super Emitter Response Program that requires operators to respond to credible third-party reports of high-volume methane leaks. The US will also allocate $20 billion of new investments to tackle methane emissions and expand its 2021 Methane Rule to include smaller wells. Small wells are currently subject to an initial inspection but rarely checked again for leaks.
Joint Declaration from Energy Importers and Exporters on Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Fossil Fuels
- The US, EU, Japan, Canada, Norway, Singapore, and the UK signed a joint declaration to build a coalition of major global fossil fuels importers and exporters to cut methane and carbon dioxide emissions along the fossil energy value chain with robust measurement, monitoring, reporting and verification initiatives.
China National Methane Reduction Plan
- A new reduction plan by China to curb methane emissions will promote modern technologies and financing mechanisms to slash rising emissions of methane. The plan aims to lead to concrete measures to curb methane emissions from energy, agriculture, and waste.

Global carbon emissions set to hit record level

Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels will rise 1 per cent to reach 36.6 Gt in 2022 – a record high according to the Global Carbon Project. The largest increases came from India and the US. China and the EU recorded a 1 percent drop in emissions drop due to China’s zero-Covid policy and Europe’s energy crisis.

Carbon Capture, Use and Storage gains in the Middle East and Europe

Saudi Arabia announced the establishment of one of the world’s largest carbon capture and storage (CCUS) hubs in the city of Jubail storing up to 9 million tons of carbon dioxide a year by 2027, in addition to supportive carbon market measures and three new CCUS pilot projects in key sectors. This is part of a multitude of targets and projects on track in the Middle East involving renewables, nature based, and engineered solutions such as CCUS. On 27 October, the EU announced that it will table a “strategic vision” for CCUS technologies next year to help meet its climate goals.

US Strategic Petroleum Reserve at lowest levels since 1984

The United States Department of Energy has sold the last batch of crude oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as part of the 180-million-barrel release announced in March 2022. The SPR level is now down to 396.22 million barrels, the lowest since 1984. The US also intends to replenish the SPR when prices are at or below about $67-72 per barrel. The US government is encouraging companies to pass through lower energy costs to consumers as refining profits soar.

2. KEY POINTS

2.1 DEMAND

OPEC's demand growth estimate falls while IEA and EIA growth rises.

OPEC’s year-on-year (y-o-y) forecast falls by 100 kb/d for a growth of 2.55 mb/d in 2022.
IEA’s demand growth assessment for this year rises by 180 kb/d to 2.11 mb/d (y-o-y).
EIA’s assessment rises by 140 kb/d for a growth of 2.26 mb/d this year. The IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimates for absolute world demand are now 99.78 mb/d, 99.57 mb/d, and 99.82 mb/d for 2022, respectively.

IEA non-OECD demand growth rises and is now close to OPEC and EIA estimates.

The IEA's assessment of y-o-y non-OECD demand growth rises by 200 kb/d to 0.82 mb/d, while OPEC’s estimate falls by 20 kb/d to 1.27 mb/d. EIA non-OECD demand growth rises by 50 kb/d to 1.11 mb/d.
The IEA's estimate for OECD demand growth falls by 20 kb/d to 1.29 mb/d for 2022 while OPEC’s projection falls by 70 kb/d for a growth of 1.28 mb/d. EIA demand growth rises by 80 kb/d for a growth of 1.15 mb/d.
The largest divergence in OECD and non-OECD demand growth estimates are between IEA and EIA at 0.14 mb/d and between IEA and OPEC at 0.45 mb/d, respectively.

2.2 SUPPLY

The IEA, OPEC, and the EIA non-OPEC supply growth estimates see closer alignment.

The IEA’s November assessment for non-OPEC supply rises by 70 kb/d to reach a growth of 1.76 mb/d while OPEC’s estimate falls by 30 kb/d for a growth of 1.90 mb/d. The EIA’s assessment rises by 40 kb/d for an overall growth of 1.81 mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA estimate non-OPEC supply at 65.55 mb/d, 65.58 mb/d, and 65.84 mb/d, respectively for 2022.
The IEA estimates OECD oil supply growth this year at 1.11 mb/d, OPEC pegs it at 1.20 mb/d, and EIA reports growth at 1.21 mb/d, an increase of 10 kb/d, decrease of 40 kb/d, and an increase of 20 kb/d, respectively. In absolute terms, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA estimate OECD oil supply at 29.39 mb/d, 30.72 mb/d, and 32.33 mb/d, respectively for 2022. The largest divergence of OECD supply growth estimates is between EIA and IEA at 100 kb/d.

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA non-OECD supply growth forecasts move closer.

The IEA’s assessment for non-OECD supply rises by 60 kb/d to a total growth of 0.42 mb/d in 2022.
OPEC’s remains the same at 0.58 mb/d while the EIA revised its non-OECD growth forecast up by 20 kb/d to a growth of 0.60 mb/d.
In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA non-OECD supply estimates are 30.93 mb/d, 32.46 mb/d, and 33.51 mb/d, respectively for 2022 with the divergence in growth estimates between the IEA and EIA at 0.18 mb/d.

The IEA, EIA, and OPEC report a decline in OPEC output in October.

The IEA reported OPEC production declined by 30 kb/d in October to 29.80 mb/d.
OPEC also showed OPEC production fell month-on-month by 210 kb/d to 29.49 mb/d.
EIA assessed OPEC production at 29.35 mb/d, down 270 kb/d month-on-month.

2.3 STOCKS

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA continue to display strong alignment on stock figures which are below the five-year average and close to 60 days forward cover.

The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 2710 mb, which is close to OPEC’s assessment of 2749 mb and EIA’s assessment of 2752 mb. These are around 237 mb, 198 mb, and 183 mb below the five-year average, respectively.
According to the IEA, crude oil inventories built by 1.9 mb while product stocks drew by 8.2 mb. Other oils, including NGLs and feedstocks drew by 1.7 mb. According to OPEC, crude oil stocks built by 6.5 mb while products built by 6.8 mb.
The EIA estimates OECD inventories rose by 24 mb in September to 2752 mb – 183 mb below the five-year average.
The widest divergence in inventories is between the EIA and IEA at 42 mb. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 441 mb, according to the EIA, which is 6 percent below the five-year average for this time of year.

2.4 SNAPSHOT (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

Explanatory Note

To inform IEF stakeholders on how perspectives on the oil market of both organisations evolve over time regularly, this monthly summary provides:

An overview of key events and initiatives in the international policy and market context.
Key findings and a snapshot overview of data points gained from comparing basic historical data and short-term forecasts of the IEA Oil Market Report, the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, and the EIA Short-term Energy Outlook.
A comparative analysis of oil inventory data reported by the IEA, OPEC, and EIA, and secondary sources in collaboration with Kayrros (added in an updated report on the IEF website).

The International Energy Forum

\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-33","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":147272,"name":"Comparative Analysis November","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-november.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-november.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":4633,"created":"2022-10-17T14:45:00","date":"2022-10-17T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"October 2022 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA","details":"{\"Main\":\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

Explosions cause leaks on the Nord Stream gas pipeline

On 26 September, Nord Stream 1 and its parallel pipeline Nord Stream 2 suffered catastrophic failure. Norway and Denmark reported four leaks in both pipelines that run under the Baltic Sea. The Swedish Security Service subsequently concluded that there were detonations at Nord Stream 1 and 2 in the Swedish economic zone. Britain, America, and the EU have all declared the incident an act of sabotage, as has Russia. The Nord Stream 1 pipeline has not transported any gas since late August when Russia closed it down for maintenance. Nord Stream 2 was never put into operation after its construction.

OPEC+ countries make production adjustment

On 5 October, OPEC and non-OPEC countries agreed to adjust downward the overall production quotas by 2 mb/d from the August 2022 required production levels, starting November 2022 for OPEC and non-OPEC Participating Countries. The meeting noted the uncertainty surrounding the global economic and oil market outlooks, and the need to enhance the long-term guidance for the oil market. OPEC and non-OPEC countries will grant the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee the authority to hold additional meetings, or to request an OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting at any time to address market developments if necessary.

International Monetary Fund forecasts economic slowdown

The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook forecasts the global economy to slow from 6 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023. Most notably, the forecast concludes that this is the weakest growth profile since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Global inflation is forecast to rise from 4.7 percent in 2021 to 8.8 percent in 2022 but to decline to 6.5 percent in 2023 and to 4.1 percent by 2024.

Germany introduces price caps on electricity and natural gas

On 29 September, Germany unveiled price caps on energy to protect businesses and consumers from skyrocketing energy costs. The 200-billion-euro ($194 billion) initiative will set a limit for natural gas prices and pay the difference between that cap and what gas importers pay on the world market based on a given consumption level. On 10 October, the government approved a plan to pay December’s natural gas bill for every household and small-to-medium business in the country. This would be followed by a subsidy scheme from March 2023 onwards that will provide relief from high prices but still incentivize citizens to save energy.

Chinese imports of Russian coal hit five-year high

Imports of Russian coal reached 8.54 million tons in September amid soaring energy demand in China. This is up from the previous peak of 7.42 million tons in July and 57 percent higher than the same period last year, according to Chinese customs data. The monthly figure is the highest on record since comparable statistics began in 2017.

2. KEY POINTS

2.1 DEMAND

OPEC’s demand growth estimate falls but remains higher than IEA and EIA.

IEA’s demand growth assessment for this year falls by 60 kb/d to 1.93 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y) due to reduced Chinese demand. Growth falls to 1.65 mb/d in 2023.
OPEC’s y-o-y forecast falls by a substantial 460 kb/d for a growth of 2.64 mb/d.
EIA’s assessment rises by 20 kb/d for a growth of 2.12 mb/d this year. The IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimates for absolute world demand are now 99.61mb/d, 99.67 mb/d, and 99.55 mb/d for 2022, respectively.

IEA non-OECD demand growth falls further while OPEC and EIA converge

The IEA's assessment of y-o-y non-OECD demand growth falls by 150 kb/d to 0.62 mb/d, while OPEC’s estimate falls by 180 kb/d to 1.29 mb/d. EIA non-OECD demand growth rises by 90 kb/d to 1.06 mb/d.
The IEA's estimate for OECD demand growth rises by 90 kb/d to 1.31 mb/d for 2022 while OPEC’s projection falls by 280 kb/d for a growth of 1.35 mb/d. EIA demand growth also falls by 50 kb/d for a growth of 1.07 mb/d.
The largest divergence in OECD and non-OECD demand growth estimates are between EIA and OPEC at 0.28 mb/d and between IEA and OPEC at 0.67 mb/d, respectively.

2.2 SUPPLY

The IEA, OPEC, and the EIA report similar growth in non-OPEC supply.

The IEA’s October assessment for non-OPEC supply falls by 50 kb/d to reach a growth of 1.69 mb/d while OPEC’s estimate falls by 180 kb/d for a growth of 1.93 mb/d. The EIA’s assessment falls by 160 kb/d for an overall growth of 1.77 mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA estimate non-OPEC supply at 65.46 mb/d, 65.60 mb/d, and 65.82 mb/d, respectively for 2022.
The IEA estimates OECD oil supply growth this year at 1.10 mb/d, OPEC pegs it at 1.24 mb/d, and EIA reports growth at 1.19 mb/d, a decrease of 70 kb/d, 80 kb/d, and 50 kb/d, respectively. In absolute terms, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA estimate OECD oil supply at 29.38 mb/d, 30.76 mb/d, and 32.32 mb/d, respectively for 2022. The largest divergence of OECD supply growth estimates is between IEA and OPEC at 140 kb/d.

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA non-OECD supply growth forecasts move closer.

The IEA’s assessment for non-OECD supply rises by 30 kb/d to a total growth of 0.36 mb/d in 2022.
OPEC’s forecast falls by 100 kb/d to 0.58 mb/d while the EIA revised its non-OECD growth forecast down by 110 kb/d to a growth of 0.58 mb/d.
In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA non-OECD supply estimates are 30.85 mb/d, 32.44 mb/d, and 33.50 mb/d, respectively for 2022 with the divergence in growth estimates between the IEA and EIA/OPEC at 0.22 mb/d.

The IEA, EIA, and OPEC revise OPEC production estimates.

The IEA increased its OPEC production estimate for September by 120 kb/d month-on-month (m-o-m) to reach total production of 29.89 mb/d.
OPEC also revised its assessment of OPEC production upward by 150 kb/d to 29.77 mb/d.
The EIA revised its assessment upward by 120 kb/d with total OPEC crude production reaching 29.61 mb/d.

2.3 STOCKS

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA continue to display strong alignment on stock figures which are below the five-year average and close to 60 days forward cover.

The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 2736 mb, which is close to OPEC’s assessment of 2712 mb and EIA’s assessment of 2722 mb. These are around 243 mb, 267 mb, and 246 mb below the five-year average, respectively.
According to the IEA, crude oil inventories built by 7.5 mb while product stocks built by 4.7 mb. Other oils, including NGLs and feedstocks built by 4.7 mb. According to OPEC, crude oil stocks built by 6.8 mb while products built by 1 mb.
The EIA estimates OECD inventories fell by 31 mb in August to 2722 mb – 246 mb below the five-year average.
The widest divergence in inventories is between the EIA and OPEC at 24 mb. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 429 mb, according to the EIA, which is 3 percent below the five-year average for this time of year.

2.4 Snapshot (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

IEF-Kayrros Stock Analysis:

Explanatory Note

To inform IEF stakeholders on how perspectives on the oil market of both organisations evolve over time regularly, this monthly summary provides:

An overview of key events and initiatives in the international policy and market context.
Key findings and a snapshot overview of data points gained from comparing basic historical data and short-term forecasts of the IEA Oil Market Report, the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, and the EIA Short-term Energy Outlook.
A comparative analysis of oil inventory data reported by the IEA, OPEC, and EIA, and secondary sources in collaboration with Kayrros (added in an updated report on the IEF website).

The International Energy Forum

\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-32","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":146938,"name":"Comparative Analysis October","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-october.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-october.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":4604,"created":"2022-09-16T11:19:00","date":"2022-09-16T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"September 2022 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA","details":"{\"Main\":\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

Russia cuts off gas exports via Nord Stream indefinitely

On 2 September, Gazprom, the Russian state energy company, said it would not resume flows through the Nord Stream pipeline after routine maintenance on 31 August because it had detected an oil leak. Before this, Gazprom restored supply to only a fifth of its capacity after a previous shutoff for maintenance. The Nord Stream 1 pipeline is a key pipeline carrying Russia's vast gas supplies to Europe accounting for about 35 percent of Europe's total Russian gas imports last year. Russian gas shipments to Europe have fallen almost 90 percent from a year ago.

G7 countries agree to cap price of Russian oil

On 2 September 2022, members of the G7 agreed to impose a price cap on Russian oil. The policy will be based on an incentive system where importers seeking insurance cover and shipping services from companies based in G7 and EU countries to transport Russian oil would need to observe the price ceiling. The aim is to allow Russian shipments to continue if sold below the cap when the EU insurance ban comes into effect in December. The oil cap plans will be implemented at the same time as the EU embargo on Russian oil takes effect. There will be two price caps, one for crude and one for refined products which will go into effect 5 December and 5 February 2023, respectively.

EU ministers endorse emergency measures to curb soaring energy prices

On 7 September, Ursula von der Leyen, EU Commission President, outlined five steps to mitigate the energy crisis four of which received ministerial support. This includes an EU-wide plan to reduce electricity consumption during peak hours, a price cap on the excess revenues made by renewables and nuclear energy, a solidarity contribution by fossil fuel companies to support vulnerable households, and a state aid program to inject extra liquidity into struggling utility businesses. The fifth proposal, a price cap just on Russian pipeline gas, did not receive enough support to move forward. Instead, most member states are pushing for a wider cap on all gas imports entering the EU, irrespective of their geographical origin.

OPEC+ countries decrease production amid economic slow down

On 5 September, OPEC and non-OPEC countries agreed to adjust downward by 100 kb/d the monthly overall production for the month of October 2022 due to concerns of an economic slowdown. The meeting noted that the prior upward adjustment of 100 kb/d was intended only for September 2022. While reconfirming the production adjustment plan and the monthly production adjustment mechanism approved at the 19th and 29th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings, OPEC and non-OPEC countries will consider calling a meeting at any time to address market developments if necessary. The 33^rd OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting is scheduled for 5 October 2022.

Price volatility impedes energy security for non-OECD countries

High energy prices triggered by the war in Ukraine and the partial European embargo on Russian crude are impacting non-OECD countries. With traditional supply of refined products being diverted to European markets, countries such as Nigeria, Angola, and South Africa are facing gasoline and diesel shortages, rising inflation, and potential of food shortages due to a concurrent rise in fertilizer prices. In South Asia, countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka continue to be hard hit by natural gas shortages as gas deliveries that were scheduled for South Asia are being redirected to Europe, where buyers can afford higher prices. Governments across Latin America are also responding by ramping up subsidies and cutting taxes on gasoline and diesel to protect consumers.

2. KEY POINTS

2.1 DEMAND

The IEA and EIA expect similar demand growth while OPEC growth remains higher.

IEA’s demand growth assessment for this year falls by 110 kb/d to 1.99 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y) due to reduced Chinese demand. Growth rises to 2.12 mb/d in 2023.
OPEC’s y-o-y forecast remains the same at 3.10 mb/d.
EIA’s assessment rises by 20 kb/d for a growth of 2.10 mb/d this year. The IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimates for absolute world demand are now 99.69 mb/d, 100.03 mb/d, and 99.53 mb/d for 2022, respectively.

OPEC reports greater OECD and non-OECD demand growth compared to the IEA and EIA.

The IEA's assessment of y-o-y non-OECD demand growth falls by 260 kb/d to 0.77 mb/d, while OPEC’s estimate falls by 10 kb/d to 1.47 mb/d. EIA non-OECD demand growth falls by 90 kb/d to 0.97 mb/d.
The IEA's estimate for OECD demand growth rises by 140 kb/d to 1.22 mb/d for 2022 while OPEC’s projection rises by 10 kb/d for a growth of 1.63 mb/d. EIA demand growth also rises by 100 kb/d for a growth of 1.12 mb/d.
The largest divergence in OECD and non-OECD demand growth estimates are between EIA and OPEC at 0.51 mb/d and between IEA and OPEC at 0.70 mb/d, respectively.

2.2 SUPPLY

The IEA, OPEC, and the EIA report similar growth in non-OPEC supply.

The IEA’s September assessment for non-OPEC supply falls by 60 kb/d to reach a growth of 1.74 mb/d while OPEC’s estimate falls by 30 kb/d for a growth of 2.11 mb/d. The EIA’s assessment falls by 200 kb/d for an overall growth of 1.93 mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA estimate non-OPEC supply at 65.50 mb/d, 65.78 mb/d, and 65.98 mb/d, respectively for 2022.
The IEA estimates OECD oil supply growth this year at 1.17 mb/d, OPEC pegs it at 1.32 mb/d, and EIA reports growth at 1.24 mb/d, a decrease of 60 kb/d, 30 kb/d, and 220 kb/d, respectively. In absolute terms, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA estimate OECD oil supply at 29.44 mb/d, 30.84 mb/d, and 32.37 mb/d, respectively for 2022. The largest divergence of OECD supply growth estimates is between IEA and OPEC at 150 kb/d.

The IEA forecasts substantially less non-OECD supply growth compared to OPEC and EIA in 2022.

The IEA’s assessment for non-OECD supply falls by 20 kb/d to a total growth of 0.33 mb/d in 2022.
OPEC’s forecast remains the same at 0.68 mb/d while the EIA revised its non-OECD growth forecast up by 20 kb/d to a growth of 0.69 mb/d.
In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA non-OECD supply estimates are 30.82 mb/d, 32.54 mb/d, and 33.61 mb/d, respectively for 2022 with the largest divergence in growth estimates between the IEA and EIA at 0.36 mb/d.

The IEA, EIA, and OPEC revise OPEC production estimates.

The IEA increased its OPEC production estimate for August by 680 kb/d month-on-month (m-o-m) to reach total production of 29.72 mb/d.
OPEC also revised its assessment of OPEC production upward by 620 kb/d to 29.65 mb/d.
The EIA revised its assessment upward by 810 kb/d with total OPEC crude production reaching 29.34 mb/d.

2.3 STOCKS

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA continue to display strong alignment on stock figures which are below the five-year average and now below 60 days forward cover.

The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 2705 mb, which is close to OPEC’s assessment of 2699 mb and EIA’s assessment of 2736 mb. These are around 275 mb, 279 mb, and 232 mb below the five-year average, respectively.
According to the IEA, crude oil inventories built by 14.8 mb while product stocks built by 29.2 mb. Other oils, including NGLs and feedstocks drew by 0.9 mb. According to OPEC, crude oil stocks built by 6.4 mb while products built by 11.7 mb.
The EIA estimates OECD inventories rose by 47 mb in July to 2736 mb – 232 mb below the five-year average.
The widest divergence in inventories is between the EIA and OPEC at 37 mb. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 427 mb, according to the EIA, which is 3 percent below the five-year average for this time of year.

2.4 Snapshot (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

Explanatory Note

To inform IEF stakeholders on how perspectives on the oil market of both organisations evolve over time regularly, this monthly summary provides:

An overview of key events and initiatives in the international policy and market context.
Key findings and a snapshot overview of data points gained from comparing basic historical data and short-term forecasts of the IEA Oil Market Report, the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, and the EIA Short-term Energy Outlook.
A comparative analysis of oil inventory data reported by the IEA, OPEC, and EIA, and secondary sources in collaboration with Kayrros (added in an updated report on the IEF website).

The International Energy Forum

\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-31","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":145870,"name":"Comparative Analysis September","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-september.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-september.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":4557,"created":"2022-08-18T13:27:00","date":"2022-08-18T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"August 2022 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA","details":"{\"Main\":\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

The US makes historic investments in clean energy

On 7 August 2022, the US Senate passed the Inflation Reduction Act, a package to combat climate change, lower health-care costs, raise taxes on corporations, and reduce the federal deficit. The package authorizes the largest spending in U.S. history to tackle climate change — about $370 billion to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 40 percent below their 2005 levels by the end of this decade. The bill includes support for growing renewable energy infrastructure, low-carbon hydrogen, and builds upon the carbon capture 45Q tax credit by providing bigger incentives and extending the deadline for infrastructure credits that begin construction prior to January 1, 2033. The provision includes increased credit values for direct air capture technologies at $180 per metric ton for those projects seeking to securely store captured CO₂ in secure geologic formations, $130 per metric ton for carbon utilization and $130 per metric ton for CO₂ stored in oil and gas fields.

OPEC+ countries increase production after new OPEC Secretary General takes office

On 3 August, OPEC and non-OPEC countries agreed to adjust upward by 100 kb/d the monthly overall production for the month of September 2022 after reconfirming the production adjustment plan and the monthly production adjustment mechanism approved at the 19th and 29th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings. This was the first OPEC meeting after HE Haitham Al Ghais of Kuwait took office as Secretary General of OPEC on 1 August and US President Joe Biden visited Saudi Arabia last month.

Prices spike as Russia deepens cuts to natural gas flows to Europe

On 27 July 2022, Gazprom cut gas deliveries to Europe via the Nord Stream pipeline to about 20 percent of its capacity. Natural gas prices rose by nearly 13 percent with the European benchmark TTF contract on reaching a high of over €200 a megawatt hour – a gas price equivalent to an oil price of $380 a barrel. On 30 July, Russia cut off gas to Latvia after supplies were cut to Poland, Bulgaria, Finland, Netherlands, and Denmark earlier in the year. The delivery route to Europe for Russian gas accounts for around a third of all Russian gas exports to Europe.

EU approves natural gas demand reduction measures

On 26 July, the EU agreed to an emergency plan to use less gas amid uncertain Russian supplies after accepting proposals to “Save gas for a safe winter” that the European Commission’s tabled on 20 July. Energy ministers agreed that all EU countries with few exceptions should voluntarily cut gas use by 15 percent from August to March, compared with their average annual use during 2017-2021. Cuts will become binding in case of a severe gas storage in Europe, or if at least five countries ask for it. The agreement will save at least 30 billion cubic metres of gas – enough to survive an average winter if Russia fully cuts supplies.

Nigeria passes new electricity reforms

On 20 July 2022, Nigeria passed the Electricity Bill 2022 which allows states to generate and distribute power by allowing state governments to license those who intend to operate mini grids within the states. The bill also aims to improve the use of generated power through increased investments in new technology to enhance transmission and distribution, while stimulating policy and regulatory measures to scale up efficient power generation, transmission, and distribution capabilities of the sector. The passage of the Bill came as the country’s national grid collapsed for the seventh time this year.

2. KEY POINTS

2.1 DEMAND

The IEA and EIA expect similar demand growth while OPEC growth remains higher.

IEA’s demand growth assessment for this year rises by 380 kb/d to 2.11 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y). Growth remains the same in 2023.
OPEC’s y-o-y forecast falls by 260 kb/d for a growth of 3.10 mb/d.
EIA’s assessment falls by 150 kb/d for a growth of 2.08 mb/d this year. The IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimates for absolute world demand are now 99.70 mb/d, 100.03 mb/d, and 99.43 mb/d for 2022, respectively.

OPEC reports greater OECD and non-OECD demand growth compared to the IEA and EIA.

The IEA's assessment of y-o-y non-OECD demand growth rises by 290 kb/d to 1.03 mb/d, while OPEC’s estimate falls by 100 kb/d to 1.48 mb/d. EIA non-OECD demand growth rises by 10 kb/d to 1.06 mb/d.
The IEA's estimate for OECD demand growth rises by 90 kb/d to 1.08 mb/d for 2022 while OPEC’s projection falls by 170 kb/d for a growth of 1.62 mb/d. EIA demand growth also falls by 160 kb/d for a growth of 1.02 mb/d.
The largest divergence in OECD and non-OECD demand growth estimates are between EIA and OPEC at 0.60 mb/d and between IEA and OPEC at 0.45 mb/d, respectively.

2.2 SUPPLY

The IEA, OPEC, and the EIA report similar growth in non-OPEC supply.

The IEA’s August assessment for non-OPEC supply falls by 30 kb/d to reach a growth of 1.80 mb/d while OPEC’s estimate falls by 10 kb/d for a growth of 2.14 mb/d. The EIA’s assessment falls by 80 kb/d for an overall growth of 2.13 mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA estimate non-OPEC supply at 65.53 mb/d, 65.80 mb/d, and 66.15 mb/d, respectively for 2022.
The IEA estimates OECD oil supply growth this year at 1.23 mb/d, OPEC pegs it at 1.35 mb/d, and EIA reports growth at 1.46 mb/d, a decrease of 210 kb/d, 210 kb/d, and 60 kb/d, respectively. In absolute terms, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA estimate OECD oil supply at 29.47 mb/d, 30.85 mb/d, and 32.55 mb/d, respectively for 2022. The divergence between OECD supply growth estimates of the IEA and EIA is 230 kb/d.

The IEA forecasts less non-OECD supply growth compared to OPEC and EIA in 2022.

The IEA’s assessment for non-OECD supply rises by 190 kb/d to a total growth of 0.35 mb/d in 2022.
OPEC revised up its forecast by 210 kb/d to a growth of 0.68 mb/d while the EIA revised its non-OECD growth forecast down by 10 kb/d to a growth of 0.67 mb/d.
In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA non-OECD supply estimates are 30.84 mb/d, 32.55 mb/d, and 33.60 mb/d, respectively for 2022 with the largest divergence in growth estimates between the IEA and OPEC at 0.33 mb/d.

The IEA, EIA, and OPEC revise OPEC production estimates.

The IEA increased its OPEC production estimate for July by 210 kb/d month-on-month (m-o-m) to reach total production of 29.00 mb/d.
OPEC also revised its assessment of OPEC production upward by 216 kb/d to 28.90 mb/d.
The EIA revised its assessment downward by 70 kb/d with total OPEC crude production reaching 28.25 mb/d.

2.4 Snapshot (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

IEF-Kayrros Stock Analysis:

Explanatory Note

To inform IEF stakeholders on how perspectives on the oil market of both organisations evolve over time regularly, this monthly summary provides:

An overview of key events and initiatives in the international policy and market context.
Key findings and a snapshot overview of data points gained from comparing basic historical data and short-term forecasts of the IEA Oil Market Report, the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, and the EIA Short-term Energy Outlook.
A comparative analysis of oil inventory data reported by the IEA, OPEC, and EIA, and secondary sources in collaboration with Kayrros (added in an updated report on the IEF website).

The International Energy Forum

\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-30","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":145025,"name":"Comparative Analysis August","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-august.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-august.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":4525,"created":"2022-07-22T15:08:00","date":"2022-07-20T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"July 2022 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA","details":"{\"Main\":\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

Pakistan, Sri Lanka face ongoing energy shortages

Europe’s aim to substitute energy imports from Russia and weak support for new upstream investment redirects available energy supply away from non-OECD economies with limited buying power where prices have continued to rise sharply. On 1 July 2022, Pakistan put forth a tender for seeking 10 shipments of LNG on the spot market for delivery from July to September but was unable to secure an LNG tender for the 4^th time in roughly a month. Sri Lanka, meanwhile, is in its worst financial crisis in seven decades, with dollar reserves to pay for essential imports including fuel all but depleted.

G7 explores price caps on Russian oil

On 28 June 2022, the Leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) met in Germany to reemphasize their condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and reaffirm their commitment to “phase out our dependency on Russian energy, without compromising on our climate and environmental goals.” G7 leaders explored the feasibility of capping Russian oil prices, to prevent Moscow from profiting from jumps in prices due to the invasion of Ukraine. Any price cap would require collaboration among key producers and consumers including India and China that already benefit from discounted Russian oil.

Russia takes full control of Sakhalin-2 gas project

On 30 June, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree that orders the creation of a new company that takes ownership of Sakhalin Energy Investment Co. Shell, Mitsui and Mitsubishi, hold just under 50 percent of the project while Gazprom, owns the rest. According to the decree, Gazprom will keep its controlling stake, but foreign companies can only regain their assets by applying for a stake in the new firm within one month. If denied, proceeds from assets sold will be retained to compensate the Russian government for damages. The move raises security of gas supply questions in Asian markets and further unsettles an already tight global LNG market.

Norway strike shuts down oil and gas fields further pushing up prices

On 5 July, Norway’s energy company, Equinor, temporarily shut down three oil and gas fields in the North Sea due to a worker strike, intensifying regional supply troubles and pushing European oil and gas prices to a four-month high. The strikes will affect 89,000 kboe/day of production at fields augmenting risk of disruptions that could cut the country’s daily gas exports by 13 percent. Benchmark front-month futures contracts tied to TTF jumped to their highest level since early March trading at a fivefold increase compared to last year.

OPEC and non-OPEC countries stay the course on production

On 30 June, OPEC and non-OPEC countries agreed to reconfirm the production adjustment plan and the monthly production adjustment mechanism approved at the 19th and 29th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings and the decision to adjust upward the monthly overall production for the month of August 2022 to 648 kb/d. The OPEC+ production plan for September will be announced at the next ministerial meeting, which is to convene on 3 August 2022.

2. KEY POINTS

2.1 DEMAND

The IEA expects lower demand growth than OPEC and the EIA in 2022.

IEA’s demand growth assessment for this year drops by 80 kb/d to 1.73 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y). Growth will accelerate to 2.14 mb/d in 2023.
OPEC’s y-o-y forecast remains the same at 3.36 mb/d.
EIA’s assessment falls by 50 kb/d for a growth of 2.23 mb/d this year. The IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimates for absolute world demand are now 99.18 mb/d, 100.29 mb/d, and 99.58 mb/d for 2022, respectively.

The IEA and OPEC diverge on OECD and non-OECD demand growth in 2022.

The IEA's assessment of y-o-y non-OECD demand growth falls by 320 kb/d to 0.74 mb/d, while OPEC’s estimate falls by 20 kb/d to 1.58 mb/d. EIA non-OECD demand growth falls by 60 kb/d to 1.05 mb/d.
The IEA's estimate for OECD demand growth falls by 320 kb/d to 0.99 mb/d for 2022 while OPEC’s projection rises by 20 kb/d for a growth of 1.79 mb/d. EIA demand growth remains the same at 1.18 mb/d.
The largest divergence in OECD and non-OECD demand growth estimates are between IEA and OPEC at 0.80 mb/d and 0.84 mb/d, respectively.

2.2 SUPPLY

The IEA, OPEC, and the EIA report similar growth in non-OPEC supply.

The IEA’s July assessment for non-OPEC supply rises by 210 kb/d to reach a growth of 1.83 mb/d while OPEC’s estimate remains the same at 2.15 mb/d. The EIA’s assessment rises by 340 kb/d for an overall growth of 2.21 mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA estimate non-OPEC supply at 65.51 mb/d, 65.73 mb/d, and 66.16 mb/d, respectively for 2022.
The IEA estimates OECD oil supply growth this year at 1.44 mb/d, OPEC pegs it at 1.56 mb/d, and EIA reports growth at 1.52 mb/d, a decrease of 10 kb/d and increases of 20 kb/d, and 30 kb/d, respectively. In absolute terms, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA estimate OECD oil supply at 29.63 mb/d, 30.99 mb/d, and 32.54 mb/d, respectively for 2022. The divergence between OECD supply growth estimates of the IEA and OPEC is 120 kb/d.

The IEA forecasts less non-OECD supply growth compared to OPEC and EIA in 2022.

The IEA’s assessment for non-OECD supply rises by 210 kb/d to a total growth of 0.16 mb/d in 2022.
OPEC revised down its forecast by 20 kb/d to a growth of 470 kb/d while the EIA revised its non-OECD growth forecast upwards by 290 kb/d to a growth of 680 kb/d.
In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA non-OECD supply estimates are 30.65 mb/d, 32.34 mb/d, and 33.61 mb/d, respectively for 2022 with the largest divergence in growth estimates between the IEA and EIA at 0.52 mb/d.

The IEA, EIA, and OPEC revise OPEC production estimates.

The IEA increased its OPEC production estimate for June by 180 kb/d month-on-month (m-o-m) to reach total production of 28.74 mb/d.
OPEC also revised its assessment of OPEC production upward by 230 kb/d to 28.72 mb/d.
The EIA revised its assessment upward by 260 kb/d with total OPEC crude production reaching 28.41 mb/d.

2.3 STOCKS

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA continue to display strong alignment on stock figures which are below the five-year average and now below 60 days forward cover.

The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 2691 mb, which is close to OPEC’s assessment of 2680 mb and EIA’s assessment of 2651 mb. These are around 301 mb, 312 mb, and 330 mb below the five-year average, respectively.
According to the IEA, crude oil inventories built by 6.8 mb while product stocks built by 7.1 mb. Other oils, including NGLs and feedstocks built by 1.3 mb. According to OPEC, crude oil stocks drew by 6.7 mb while products built by 17.2 mb.
The EIA estimates OECD inventories rose by 11 mb in April to 2651 mb – 330 mb below the five-year average.
The widest divergence in inventories is between the IEA and EIA at 40 mb. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 424 mb, according to the EIA, which is 10 percent below the five-year average for this time of year.

2.4 Snapshot (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-29","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":143548,"name":"Comparative Analysis July","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-july.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-july.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":4481,"created":"2022-06-20T11:36:00","date":"2022-06-20T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"June 2022 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA","details":"{\"Main\":\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

Record-high inflation and a sharp rise in geopolitical risk cause uncertainty

Consumer prices increased in May as gasoline prices hit record highs and the cost of food soared in major consuming markets, leading to the largest annual increase of inflation in nearly 40 years and calls for monetary tightening. Oil prices remain well above the $110 mark due to robust energy demand outside of China and as sanctions impact Russian production.

OPEC and non-OPEC countries accelerate production increases

On 2 June, OPEC and non-OPEC countries agreed to advance the planned production adjustment for September and \\\"redistribute equally\\\" the 432 kb/d output increases for July and August. Therefore, July production will be adjusted upward by 648 kb/d. The OPEC+ production plan for August will be announced at its next ministerial meeting, which is to convene on 30 June.

EU Parliament votes down carbon market reform

On 8 June, the European Parliament rejected a proposal to upgrade the EU carbon market. The proposal sought to reform the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), by expanding it to include carbon from transport and construction. Lawmakers also postponed voting on related proposals to introduce a carbon border adjustment mechanism and a climate fund protecting the most vulnerable. The three legislative proposals are part of the European Commission's “Fit For 55” package to reduce the EU's carbon emissions by at least 55 percent by 2030.

Gazprom reduces gas flows to the EU

On 14 July, Gazprom stated that it that it will limit natural gas supply via the Nord Stream pipeline to Germany by 40 percent compared to planned flows because of a delay in equipment repairs, sending European gas prices surging by 13 percent. This is in addition to supply cuts to Poland and Bulgaria in late April and Finland in late May after their refusal to pay in Russian Roubles. Most recently, the Russian gas company halted supplies to the Netherlands and Denmark on 31 May and 1 June, respectively.

US Strategic Petroleum Reserve posts record draw

While US commercial crude inventories rose in early June, SPR crude stocks fell by a record amount as refiners continue to ramp up production to pre-pandemic levels, according to the EIA. SPR crude stocks fell by a record 7.3 mb to 519.3 mb, the lowest level since March 1987.

2. KEY POINTS

2.1 DEMAND

The IEA expects lower demand growth than OPEC and the EIA in 2022.

IEA's demand growth assessment for this year rises by 10 kb/d to 1.81 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y). Growth will accelerate to 2.17 mb/d in 2023 with China driving most of the gains.
OPEC's y-o-y forecast remains the same at 3.36 mb/d.
EIA's assessment falls by 60 kb/d for a growth of 2.28 mb/d this year. The IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimates for absolute world demand are now 99.42 mb/d, 100.29 mb/d, and 99.63 mb/d for 2022, respectively.

The IEA, OPEC, and the EIA differ on non-OECD demand growth in 2022.

The IEA's assessment of y-o-y non-OECD demand growth falls by 130 kb/d to 0.51 mb/d, while OPEC's estimate remains the same at 1.60 mb/d. EIA non-OECD demand growth rises by 20 kb/d to 1.11 mb/d.
The IEA's estimate for OECD demand growth rises by 150 kb/d to 1.31 mb/d for 2022 while OPEC's projection rises by 10 kb/d for a growth of 1.77 mb/d. EIA revises OECD demand growth up by 50 kb/d to 1.18 mb/d this year.
The largest divergence in OECD and non-OECD demand growth estimates is between OPEC and EIA differing by 590 kb/d and between IEA and OPEC at 1.09 mb/d, respectively.

2.2 SUPPLY

The IEA, OPEC, and the EIA report similar growth in non-OPEC supply.

The IEA's June assessment for non-OPEC supply rises by 850 kb/d to reach a growth of 1.62 mb/d while OPEC's estimate falls by 250 kb/d for a growth of 2.15 mb/d. The EIA's assessment rises by 340 kb/d for an overall growth of 1.87 mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA estimate non-OPEC supply at 65.32 mb/d, 65.74 mb/d, and 65.78 mb/d, respectively for 2022.
The IEA estimates OECD oil supply growth this year at 1.45 mb/d, OPEC pegs it at 1.54 mb/d, and EIA reports growth at 1.49 mb/d, an increase of 110 kb/d and decreases of 50 kb/d, and 40 kb/d, respectively. In absolute terms, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA estimate OECD oil supply at 29.64 mb/d, 30.99 mb/d, and 32.51 mb/d, respectively for 2022. The largest divergence of OECD supply growth estimates is between the IEA and OPEC differing by 90 kb/d.

The IEA forecasts a decline while both the EIA and OPEC forecast substantial growth for non-OECD supply in 2022.

The IEA's assessment for non-OECD supply rises by 720 kb/d for a total decline of 0.05 mb/d compared to last month's assessment of a 0.77 mb/d decline.
OPEC revised down its forecast by 210 kb/d for a growth of 490 kb/d while EIA revised upwards by 390 kb/d for a growth of 390 kb/d.
In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA non-OECD supply estimates are 30.45 mb/d, 32.36 mb/d, and 33.28 mb/d, respectively for 2022 with the largest divergence in growth estimates between the IEA and OPEC at 0.54 mb/d.

The IEA, EIA, and OPEC revise OPEC production estimates downward.

The IEA decreased its OPEC production estimate for May downward by 210 kb/d month-on-month (m-o-m) to reach total production of 28.52 mb/d. OPEC also revised its assessment of OPEC production downward by 180 kb/d to 28.51 mb/d. The EIA revised its assessment downward by 300 kb/d with total OPEC crude production reaching 28.59 mb/d.

2.3 STOCKS

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA continue to display strong alignment on stock figures which are below the five-year average and now below 60 days forward cover.

The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 2669 mb, which is close to OPEC's assessment of 2628 mb and EIA's assessment of 2627 mb. These are around 290 mb, 332 mb, and 322 mb below the five-year average, respectively.
According to the IEA, crude oil inventories built by 17.4 mb while product stocks built by 21.8 mb. Other oils, including NGLs and feedstocks built by 3.3 mb. According to OPEC, crude oil stocks built by 9.3 mb while products drew by 7.5 mb.
The EIA estimates OECD inventories rose by 11 mb in April to 2627 mb – 322 mb below the five-year average.
The widest divergence in inventories is between the IEA and EIA at 42 mb. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 417 mb, according to the EIA, which is 15 percent below the five-year average for this time of year.

2.4 Snapshot (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

IEF-Kayrros Stock Analysis:

Explanatory Note

To inform IEF stakeholders on how perspectives on the oil market of both organisations evolve over time regularly, this monthly summary provides:

An overview of key events and initiatives in the international policy and market context.
Key findings and a snapshot overview of data points gained from comparing basic historical data and short-term forecasts of the IEA Oil Market Report, the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, and the EIA Short-term Energy Outlook.
A comparative analysis of oil inventory data reported by the IEA, OPEC, and EIA, and secondary sources in collaboration with Kayrros (added in an updated report on the IEF website).

The International Energy Forum

\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-28","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":142702,"name":"Comparative Analysis June","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-june.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-june.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":4443,"created":"2022-05-17T14:19:00","date":"2022-05-17T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"May 2022 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA","details":"{\"Main\":\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

EU proposes phased ban of Russian oil

On 4 May, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a proposal for the EU to impose a gradual embargo on Russian oil as part of its sixth sanctions package. The Commission's proposal, which needs unanimous backing by the 27 EU countries to take effect, includes phasing out supplies of Russian crude oil and refined products by the end of 2022. It also proposes to ban in a month's time all shipping, brokerage, insurance, and financing services offered by EU companies for the transport of Russian oil.

US plans crude buyback for strategic petroleum reserve

On 5 May, the US announced plans to buy 60 million barrels of crude oil as the first step in a years-long process aimed at replenishing America's emergency oil reserve. Reserves were already sitting at 20-year lows before President Joe Biden announced the release of a record-setting 180 million barrels of oil to ease pressure on energy markets on 31 March. The buyback process will begin with a call for bids in Fall 2022 to repurchase a third of the 180 million emergency barrels released as part of a coordinated action with IEA member countries to support consumers and the global economy until new production ramps up. The delivery window of the crude will be based on anticipated market conditions and when crude prices are expected to be “significantly lower.”

Energy prices remain volatile

COVID-19 lockdowns in China have impacted crude prices, but they remain above the $100-threshold while soaring fuel prices are increasing refining margins to all-time highs amid reduced refining capacity and trade constraints. US natural gas prices have also spiked with Henry Hub spot and futures prices soaring above $8/MMBtu; price levels last seen before the shale gas revolution broke through in the 2010s.

OPEC stays the course

On 5 May, OPEC and non-OPEC countries reconfirmed the production adjustment plan and the monthly production adjustment mechanism approved at the 19th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on 18 July and adjust monthly overall production by 0.432 mb/d for the month of June 2022. The 29^th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting is scheduled for 2 June 2022.

US Senate Judiciary Committee passes NOPEC antitrust bill

On 5 May, a US Senate committee passed the No Oil-Producing and Exporting Cartels Act that could expose the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and partner countries to US claims of collusion to boost oil prices. Versions of the legislation have failed in Congress for more than two decades, but lawmakers are pushed to act on rising fuel prices. The legislation must be considered by the full chamber in both houses of Congress and signed by the President before it becomes US law.

2. KEY POINTS

2.1 DEMAND

The IEA expects lower demand growth than OPEC and the EIA in 2022.

IEA’s demand growth assessment for this year falls by 70 kb/d to 1.80 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y) due to economic uncertainties caused by a resurgence of COVID-19 cases and lockdowns in China and the war in Ukraine.
OPEC’s y-o-y forecast falls by 310 kb/d for total growth of 3.36 mb/d.
EIA’s assessment falls by 200 kb/d for a growth of 2.22 mb/d this year. The IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimates for absolute world demand are now 99.35 mb/d, 100.29 mb/d, and 99.61 mb/d for 2022, respectively.

The IEA, OPEC, and the EIA differ on non-OECD demand growth in 2022.

The IEA's assessment of y-o-y non-OECD demand growth falls by 40 kb/d to 0.64 mb/d, while OPEC’s estimate falls by 210 kb/d to 1.60 mb/d. EIA non-OECD demand growth falls by 100 kb/d to 1.09 mb/d.
The IEA's estimate for OECD demand growth falls by 30 kb/d to 1.16 mb/d for 2022 while OPEC’s projection falls by 100 kb/d for a growth of 1.76 mb/d. EIA revises OECD demand growth down by 90 kb/d to 1.13 mb/d this year.
The largest divergence in OECD and non-OECD demand growth estimates is between OPEC and EIA differing by 630 kb/d and between IEA and OPEC at 960 kb/d, respectively.

2.2 SUPPLY

The IEA’s estimate of non-OPEC supply growth remains stable while OPEC and EIA report decreases.

The IEA’s May assessment for non-OPEC supply rises by 10 kb/d to reach a growth of 0.77 mb/d while OPEC’s estimate falls by 300 kb/d for a growth of 2.40 mb/d. The EIA’s assessment falls by 490 kb/d for an overall growth of 1.53 mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA estimate non-OPEC supply at 64.48 mb/d, 65.97 mb/d, and 65.44 mb/d, respectively for 2022.
The IEA estimates OECD oil supply growth this year at 1.34 mb/d, OPEC pegs it at 1.59 mb/d, and EIA reports growth at 1.53 mb/d, decreases of 180 kb/d, 10 kb/d, and 180 kb/d, respectively. In absolute terms, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA estimate OECD oil supply at 29.54 mb/d, 31.00 mb/d, and 32.55 mb/d, respectively for 2022. The largest divergence of OECD supply growth estimates is between the IEA and OPEC differing by 250 kb/d.

The IEA forecasts a decline, EIA reports zero growth, and OPEC continues to see growth for non-OECD supply in 2022.

The IEA’s assessment for non-OECD supply rises by 200 kb/d for a total decline of 0.77 mb/d compared to last month’s assessment of a 0.97 mb/d decline.
OPEC and the EIA also substantially revised down their forecasts by 290 kb/d and 310 kb/d with OPEC estimating non-OECD supply growth at 0.70 mb/d and EIA reporting no growth.
In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA non-OECD supply estimates are 29.73 mb/d, 32.57 mb/d, and 32.89 mb/d, respectively for 2022 with the largest divergence in growth estimates between the IEA and OPEC at 1.47 mb/d.

The IEA, EIA, and OPEC revise OPEC production estimates upwards.

The IEA increased its OPEC production estimate for April upward by 50 kb/d month-on-month (m-o-m) to reach total production of 28.67 mb/d. OPEC also revised its assessment of its OPEC production upwards by 150 kb/d to 28.65 mb/d. The EIA revised its assessment upwards by 270 kb/d with total OPEC crude production reaching 28.49 mb/d.

2.3 STOCKS

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA continue to display strong alignment on stock figures which are below the five-year average and now below 60 days forward cover.

The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 2626 mb, which is close to OPEC’s assessment of 2621 mb and EIA’s assessment of 2619 mb. These are around 299 mb, 304 mb, and 296 mb below the five-year average, respectively.
According to the IEA, crude oil inventories built by 22.8 mb while product stocks drew by 25.5 mb. Other oils, including NGLs and feedstocks built by 5.7 mb. According to OPEC, crude oil stocks built by 12.9 mb while products drew by 2.8 mb.
The EIA estimates OECD inventories rose by 18 mb in March to 2619 mb – 296 mb below the five-year average.
The widest divergence in inventories is between the IEA and EIA at 7 mb. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 424 mb, according to the EIA, which is 13 percent below the five-year average for this time of year.

2.4 Snapshot (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

IEF-Kayrros Stock Analysis:

Explanatory Note

To inform IEF stakeholders on how perspectives on the oil market of both organisations evolve over time regularly, this monthly summary provides:

An overview of key events and initiatives in the international policy and market context.
Key findings and a snapshot overview of data points gained from comparing basic historical data and short-term forecasts of the IEA Oil Market Report, the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, and the EIA Short-term Energy Outlook.
A comparative analysis of oil inventory data reported by the IEA, OPEC, and EIA, and secondary sources in collaboration with Kayrros (added in an updated report on the IEF website).

The International Energy Forum

\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-27","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":141986,"name":"Comparative Analysis May","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-may.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/comparative-analysis-may.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":4415,"created":"2022-04-17T16:25:00","date":"2022-04-17T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"April 2022 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA","details":"{\"Main\":\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

Global economic recovery at risk

The IEA has lowered its 2022 GDP forecast marginally to 3.4 percent and OPEC reduced its GDP growth forecast for 2022 from 4.2 to 3.9 percent in this month's reports. GDP growth downgrades by international financial institutions and economic forecasters for 2022 amount to an on average 1.0 percentage point reduction so far compared to forecasts made at the end of 2021. Energy and commodity price spikes and supply chain problems have pushed inflation to new record highs in April. Pressure on central banks to protect savings and act on the cost-of-living crisis with assertive interest rate hikes risks restraining the global economic recovery.

China COVID-19 lockdowns and US-IEA oil stock release temper oil prices

A wave of COVID-19 outbreaks spurred lockdowns across many regions of China, including Shanghai. Brent crude prices settled below the $100 barrel mark on April 11th for the first time since mid-March. Other factors cited as reasons for oil's decline was the U.S. announcement on 31 March to release 1 million barrels per day for the next six months — amounting to a Strategic Petroleum Reserve draw of a 180 million barrels. The International Energy Agency agreed to a second collective action on 1 April. In total, 240 mb will be made available to the market over the next half year – the largest stock release in oil market history.

EU announces ban on Russian coal imports

On 7 April, the European Union announced a fifth package of sanctions in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Besides sanctioning individuals and restricting shipping, this includes a ban on Russian coal imports from August onwards. The phase-out of EU imports of Russian coal is the cornerstone measure of the package which affects a quarter of Russian coal exports.

OPEC and IEA assessments call for dialogue

On 31 March, OPEC+ countries reconfirmed production policies approved at the 19th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on 18 July 2021 and agreed to increase its overall monthly production by 432 kb/d in May 2022. The IEA observed that output from the alliance's 19 members with quotas rose by 40 kb/d month-on-month in March, well below the planned 400 kb/d increase, and 1.5 mb/d below their target. OPEC has removed the IEA from its secondary sources signaling reduced confidence in IEA data assessments and the need for dialogue.

2. Key Points

2.1 Demand

The IEA expects lower demand growth than OPEC and the EIA in 2022.

IEA's demand growth assessment for this year falls by 240 kb/d to 1.87 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y) due to economic uncertainties caused by a resurgence of COVID-19 cases and new lockdowns in China and the war in Ukraine.
OPEC's y-o-y forecast falls for the first time since September 2021 by 480 kb/d for total growth of 3.67 mb/d.
EIA's assessment falls by 710 kb/d for a growth of 2.42 mb/d this year. The IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimates for absolute world demand are now 99.37 mb/d, 100.50 mb/d, and 99.80 mb/d for 2022, respectively.

The IEA, OPEC, and the EIA differ on non-OECD demand growth in 2022.

The IEA's assessment of y-o-y non-OECD demand growth falls by 170 kb/d to 0.68 mb/d, while OPEC's estimate falls by 450 kb/d to 1.81 mb/d. EIA non-OECD demand growth falls by 500 kb/d to 1.19 mb/d.
The IEA's estimate for OECD demand growth falls by 70 kb/d to 1.19 mb/d for 2022 while OPEC's projection falls by 40 kb/d for a growth of 1.86 mb/d. EIA revises OECD demand growth down by 210 kb/d to 1.22 mb/d this year.
The biggest difference in OECD and non-OECD demand growth estimates is between IEA and OPEC differing by 670 kb/d and 1.13 mb/d, respectively.

2.2 Supply

The IEA's estimate of non-OPEC supply growth falls slightly and remains substantially lower in 2022 than OPEC and EIA.

The IEA's April assessment for non-OPEC supply falls by 50 kb/d to reach a growth of 0.76 mb/d while OPEC's estimate falls by 320 kb/d for a growth of 2.70 mb/d. The primary driver of the divergence in IEA and OPEC non-OPEC production forecasts is Russia. The EIA's assessment falls by 650 kb/d for an overall growth of 2.02 mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA estimate non-OPEC supply at 64.47 mb/d, 66.26 mb/d, and 65.91 mb/d, respectively for 2022.
The IEA estimates OECD oil supply growth this year at 1.52 mb/d, OPEC pegs it at 1.60 mb/d, and EIA reports growth at 1.71 mb/d, a decrease of 160 kb/d, an increase of 240 kb/d, and a decrease of 160 kb/d, respectively. In absolute terms, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA estimate OECD oil supply at 29.72 mb/d, 31.01 mb/d, and 32.76 mb/d, respectively for 2022. The difference between estimates by the IEA and the EIA of OECD supply growth is 190 kb/d.

The IEA forecasts a decline for non-OECD supply in 2022 while OPEC and the EIA continue to see growth.

The IEA's assessment for non-OECD supply falls by 110 kb/d for a total decline of 0.97 mb/d compared to last month's assessment of a 0.81 mb/d decline.
OPEC and the EIA also substantially revised down their forecasts by 560 kb/d and 490 kb/d estimating non-OECD supply growth at 0.99 mb/d and 0.31 mb/d, respectively.
In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA non-OECD supply estimates are 29.53 mb/d, 32.86 mb/d, and 33.15 mb/d, respectively for 2022 with the highest divergence in growth estimates between the IEA and OPEC at 1.96 mb/d.

The IEA and OPEC revise OPEC production estimates upwards while the EIA revises downwards.

The IEA increased its OPEC production estimate for March upward by 60 kb/d month-on-month (m-o-m) to reach total production of 28.54 mb/d. OPEC also revised its assessment of its OPEC production upwards by 60 kb/d to 28.56 mb/d. The EIA decreased its assessment by 360 kb/d with total OPEC crude production reaching 28.22 mb/d.

2.3 Stocks

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA continue to display strong alignment on stock figures which are below the five-year average and now below 60 days forward cover.

The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 2611 mb, which is close to OPEC's assessment of 2599 mb and EIA's assessment of 2601mb. These are around 321 mb, 334 mb, and 321 mb below the five-year average, respectively.
According to the IEA, crude oil inventories built by 0.1 mb while product stocks drew by 42.6 mb. Other oils, including NGLs and feedstocks built by 0.2 mb. According to OPEC, crude oil stocks built by 0.7 mb while products drew by 23.5 mb.
The EIA estimates OECD inventories dropped by 33 mb in February to 2660 mb – 321 mb below the five-year average.
The widest divergence in inventories is between the IEA and OPEC at 12 mb. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 412 mb, according to the EIA, which is 14 percent below the five-year average for this time of year.

2.4 Snapshot (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

IEF-Kayrros Stock Analysis:

Explanatory Note

To inform IEF stakeholders on how perspectives on the oil market of both organisations evolve over time regularly, this monthly summary provides:

An overview of key events and initiatives in the international policy and market context.
Key findings and a snapshot overview of data points gained from comparing basic historical data and short-term forecasts of the IEA Oil Market Report, the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, and the EIA Short-term Energy Outlook.
A comparative analysis of oil inventory data reported by the IEA, OPEC, and EIA, and secondary sources in collaboration with Kayrros (added in an updated report on the IEF website).

The International Energy Forum

\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-26","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":140520,"name":"Ca Apr 22","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/ca-apr-22.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/ca-apr-22.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":4381,"created":"2022-03-17T17:16:00","date":"2022-03-17T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"March 2022 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA","details":"{\"Main\":\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

Russia Invades Ukraine

Initial energy market data shows that both non-energy and energy sanctions severely reduced and dislocated Russian oil supplies leading to extreme volatility as markets sought realignment in a new and highly uncertain risk environment.
As security concerns fray producer consumer relations and reshape energy market policy priorities, sustained price volatility will fan inflation and potentially interrupt the post pandemic recovery.
Data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) shows that in addition to sanctions on already tight supply/demand balances, markets remain vulnerable to low inventories and spare capacity.
Western disengagement from Russia will slow global economic growth and limit prospects for just and orderly transitions to achieve shared UN goals.

Extreme energy price volatility prompts government measures

Brent oil crude prices spiked to their highest level since 2008 breaking $130 after the US and UK confirmed a ban on Russian imports but have since returned to the $100 mark. Concerns about natural gas shortages in Europe drove futures for gas in the northwest European market to a record-high of 345 euros on 7 March – equivalent to oil at $600 per barrel. The price has since dropped to just over 100 euros. Short-term government measures to shield consumers include tax relief, subsidies, and stimulating domestic oil and gas production.

COVID risks remain as headwinds to energy demand rise

Reinstated lockdowns in major energy demand centers in China reduce non-OECD energy demand. Energy consumption is exposed to rising uncertainties stemming from the impact of surging commodity prices and US monetary tightening. The uncertain tail end of the pandemic and impact of sanctions on Russia and other producers constrains investment and trade and fragments still brittle supply chains.

26th \\\"OPEC Plus\\\" meeting stays the course on production

On 2 March, OPEC and non-OPEC countries reconfirmed the production adjustment plan and the monthly production adjustment mechanism approved at the 19th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on 18 July. OPEC plus decided to increase the monthly overall production by 0.4 mb/d for the month of April 2022 accordingly. The 27th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting is scheduled for 31 March 2022.

The IEA and EU announce plans to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons

On 3 March, The IEA provided a 10-point plan to the EU for reducing reliance on Russian oil, gas, and coal supplies by over a third. On 8 March, the European Commission proposed to make Europe independent from Russian fossil fuels well before 2030, first by reducing gas imports from Russia by two-thirds over the short-term.
Europe has refrained from sanctioning Russian energy supplies. Pre-pandemic it relied on Russian oil, gas, and coal for 27, 41 and 47 percent of its imports, according to Eurostat Data.

2. Key Points

2.1 Demand

IEA expects substantially lower demand growth than OPEC and EIA in 2022.

IEA's demand growth assessment falls by 1.12 mb/d to 2.11 mb/d for 2022 due to economic uncertainties caused by the Ukraine crisis.
OPEC's y-o-y forecast remains the same at 4.15 mb/d.
EIA's assessment falls by 410 kb/d for a growth of 3.13 mb/d this year. The IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimates for absolute world demand are now 99.63 mb/d, 100.90 mb/d, and 100.61 mb/d for 2022, respectively.

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA drastically differ on non-OECD demand growth in 2022.

The IEA's assessment of y-o-y non-OECD demand growth falls by 760 kb/d to 0.85 mb/d, while OPEC's estimate falls by 60 kb/d for a growth of 2.26 mb/d. EIA non-OECD demand growth falls by 300 kb/d for a growth of 1.69 mb/d.
The IEA's estimate for OECD demand growth falls by 360 kb/d to 1.26 mb/d for 2022 while OPEC's projection rises by 60 kb/d for a growth of 1.90 mb/d. EIA sees OECD growth falling by 120 kb/d reaching 1.43 mb/d this year.
The biggest difference in OECD and non-OECD demand growth estimates is between IEA and OPEC which differ by 640 kb/d and 1.41 mb/d, respectively.

2.2 Supply

IEA non-OPEC supply growth falls sharply in 2022 compared to OPEC and EIA.

The IEA's March assessment for non-OPEC supply falls by 2.12 mb/d to reach a growth of 0.81 mb/d while OPEC's estimate remains the same at 3.02 mb/d. The EIA's assessment falls by 650 kb/d for an overall growth of 2.67 mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimate non-OPEC supply at 64.52 mb/d, 66.59 mb/d, and 66.56 mb/d, respectively for 2022.
The IEA estimates OECD oil supply growth this year at 1.68 mb/d, OPEC pegs it at 1.36 mb/d, and EIA reports growth at 1.87 mb/d, an increase of 110 kb/d, a decrease of 10 kb/d, and an increase of 70 kb/d, respectively. In absolute terms, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimate OECD oil supply at 29.89 mb/d, 30.79 mb/d, and 32.91 mb/d, respectively for 2022. The difference between OPEC and EIA on OECD supply growth is 510 kb/d.

IEA forecasts a decline for non-OECD supply in 2022 while OPEC and EIA continue to see growth.

The IEA made a drastic downwards revision in its estimate of non-OECD supply for 2022 from a growth of 1.06 in February to a decline of 1.08 mb/d – a change of 2.14 mb/d.
The EIA also revised its forecast down by 720 kb/d for a growth of 0.80 while OPEC marginally raised its supply forecasts by 10 kb/d to 1.55 mb/d.
In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA non-OECD supply estimates are 29.42 mb/d, 33.41 mb/d, and 33.65 mb/d, respectively for 2022 with the highest divergence in growth between IEA and OPEC at 2.63 mb/d.

The IEA and OPEC revise OPEC production estimates upwards while EIA revises this downwards for January.

The IEA revised its OPEC production estimate for January upward by 310 kb/d month-on-month (m-o-m) to reach total production of 28.51 mb/d. OPEC's assessment of its own production was revised upwards by 440 kb/d to 28.47 mb/d. The EIA also increased its assessment by 770 kb/d for total OPEC crude production of 28.58 mb/d.

2.3 Stocks

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA continue to display strong alignment on stock figures which are below the five-year average and now below 60 days forward cover.

The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 2621 mb, which is close to OPEC's assessment of 2677 mb and EIA's assessment of 2660 mb. These are around 336 mb, 280 mb, and 286 mb below the five-year average, respectively.
According to the IEA, crude oil inventories drew by 18.7 mb while product stocks drew by 4.9 mb. Other oils, including NGLs and feedstocks built by 1.7 mb. According to OPEC, crude oil stocks drew by 8.7 mb while products built by 5.5 mb.
EIA estimates OECD inventories dropped by 22 mb in December to 2660 mb – 286 mb below the five-year average.
The widest divergence in inventories is between the IEA and OPEC which stands at 56 mb. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 412 mb, according to the EIA, which is 13 percent below the five-year average for this time of year. OPEC reports US commercial crude oil stocks at about 413 mb and around 56 mb below the five-year average.

2.4 Snapshot (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

IEF-Kayrros Stock Analysis:

Explanatory Note

To inform IEF stakeholders on how perspectives on the oil market of both organisations evolve over time regularly, this monthly summary provides:

An overview of key events and initiatives in the international policy and market context.
Key findings and a snapshot overview of data points gained from comparing basic historical data and short-term forecasts of the IEA Oil Market Report, the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, and the EIA Short-term Energy Outlook.
A comparative analysis of oil inventory data reported by the IEA, OPEC, and EIA, and secondary sources in collaboration with Kayrros (added in an updated report on the IEF website).

The International Energy Forum

\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-25","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":139805,"name":"Ca Mar 22","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/ca-mar-22.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/ca-mar-22.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":4329,"created":"2022-02-22T18:25:00","date":"2022-02-23T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"February 2022 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA","details":"{\"Main\":\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

Natural gas and nuclear energy included in EU green taxonomy

On 2 February, the EU presented the Taxonomy Complementary Climate Delegated Act that amends the existing Act, which came into force on January 1, 2022. When adopted, the EU guidelines will set a standard for sustainable financing that acknowledges natural gas and nuclear. Private investors will have EU backing to invest in natural gas and nuclear projects based on stringent conditions and transitional arrangements.

Energy prices surge in a new risk environment

Oil prices hit $90 for the first time since 2014 while coal prices in Asia surged to a record high of over $200 per tonne according to IHS and Argus. European natural gas prices, meanwhile, remain volatile. Though they have come down from December highs, natural gas prices remain elevated on account of supply side risk. A combination of factors including a return of pent-up demand, low storage constraints, bottlenecks, and rising geopolitical tensions are seeing energy prices and inflation rise.

US refined product demand hits record-high

U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell as overall refined product demand reached an all-time record according to the EIA. Crude inventories fell 4.8 million barrels in the week of February 4 to 410 million barrels – their lowest for commercial inventories since October 2018.

25th OPEC and non-OPEC Meeting reaffirms production adjustments

On 2 February, OPEC and non-OPEC countries reconfirmed the production adjustment plan and the monthly production adjustment mechanism approved at the 19th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on 18 July. OPEC-plus Ministers decided to adjust the monthly overall production by 0.4 mb/d for the month of March The 26th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting is scheduled for 2 March 2022.

2. Key Points

2.1 Demand

OPEC reports more demand growth than IEA and EIA in 2022.

IEA's demand growth assessment falls year-on-year (y-o-y) by 100 kb/d to 3.23 mb/d for 2022.
OPEC's y-o-y forecast remains the same at 4.15 mb/d.
EIA's assessment falls by 80 kb/d for a growth of 3.54 mb/d this year. The IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimates for absolute world demand are now 100.58 mb/d, 100.80 mb/d, and 100.61 mb/d for 2022, respectively.

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA converge on OECD demand growth but differ on non-OECD demand growth in 2022.

The IEA's assessment of y-o-y non-OECD demand growth falls by 90 kb/d to 1.61 mb/d, while OPEC's estimate remains the same at 2.32 mb/d. EIA non-OECD demand growth falls by 170 kb/d for a growth of 1.99 mb/d.
The IEA's estimate for OECD demand falls slightly by 10 kb/d to 1.62 mb/d for 2022 while OPEC's projection remains the same at 1.84 mb/d. EIA sees OECD growth falling by 250 kb/d reaching 1.55 mb/d this year.
OPEC/EIA and OPEC/IEA assessments of OECD and non-OECD demand growth differ by 290 kb/d and 710 kb/d, respectively.

2.2 Supply

EIA and IEA forecast higher non-OPEC supply growth in 2022 while OPEC estimate remains unaltered.

The IEA's February assessment for non-OPEC supply reaches a growth of 2.93 mb/d while OPEC's estimate remains the same at 3.02 mb/d. The EIA reports the highest growth out of the three organizations at 3.32 mb/d, a revision of 480 kb/d from last month. In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimate non-OPEC supply at 66.65 mb/d, 66.61 mb/d, and 67.23 mb/d, respectively for 2022.
The IEA estimates OECD oil supply growth this year at 1.57 mb/d, OPEC pegs it at 1.37mb/d, and EIA reports growth at 1.80 mb/d, an increase of 210 kb/d, 10 kb/d, and 310 kb/d, respectively. In absolute terms, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimate OECD oil supply at 29.80 mb/d, 30.82 mb/d, and 32.86 mb/d, respectively for 2022. The difference between OPEC and EIA on OECD supply growth is 430 kb/d.

OPEC and EIA report higher non-OECD supply growth than the IEA.

OPEC's and EIA forecast non-OECD supply growth assessments remain close at 1.54 and 1.52 mb/d, respectively while the IEA ‘s growth projection is unchanged at 1.06 mb/d.
In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA non-OECD supply estimates are 29.80 mb/d, 30.82 mb/d, and 32.86 mb/d, respectively for 2022 with the highest divergence in growth between EIA and OPEC at 430 kb/d.

The IEA and OPEC revise OPEC production estimates upwards while EIA revises this downwards for January.

The IEA revised its OPEC production estimate upward by 180 kb/d month-on-month (m-o-m) to reach total production of 27.97 mb/d. OPEC's assessment of its own production was revised upwards by 60 kb/d to 27.98 mb/d. The EIA also decreased its assessment by 100 kb/d for total OPEC crude production of 27.76 mb/d.

2.3 Stocks

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA continue to display strong alignment on stock figures which are now below the five-year average but still close to or higher than 60 days forward cover.

The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 2680 mb, which is close to OPEC's assessment of 2725 mb and EIA's assessment of 2682 mb. These are around 255 mb, 210 mb, and 240 mb below the five-year average, respectively.
According to the IEA, crude oil inventories built by 18.5 mb while product stocks drew by 30.8 mb. Other oils, including NGLs and feedstocks drew by 10.7 mb. According to OPEC, crude oil stocks drew by 18.3 mb while products drew by 12.9 mb.
EIA estimates OECD inventories dropped by 51 mb in December to 2682 mb – 240 mb below the five-year average.
The widest divergence in inventories is between the IEA and OPEC which stands at 45 mb. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 410 mb, according to the EIA, which is 11 percent below the five-year average for this time of year. OPEC reports US commercial crude oil stocks at about 415 mb and around 43 mb below the five-year average.

2.4 Snapshot (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

3.1 Demand Data

3.2 Supply Data

3.3 Stock Data

IEF-Kayrros Stock Analysis:

JODI Data:

Despite the emergence of the Omicron variant, December demand remained at 98% of 2019 levels.

December crude production was at 95% of pre-COVID levels (vs. demand’s 98%). Production is lower now vs. Dec 2019 in the US, Nigeria, Angola, Iraq, and the UK.

Crude stocks recovered slightly in UK and Japan, but...

Crude stocks dove in Canada and Korea.

Explanatory Note

To inform IEF stakeholders on how perspectives on the oil market of both organisations evolve over time regularly, this monthly summary provides:

An overview of key events and initiatives in the international policy and market context.
Key findings and a snapshot overview of data points gained from comparing basic historical data and short-term forecasts of the IEA Oil Market Report, the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, and the EIA Short-term Energy Outlook.
A comparative analysis of oil inventory data reported by the IEA, OPEC, and EIA, and secondary sources in collaboration with Kayrros (added in an updated report on the IEF website).

The International Energy Forum

\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-24","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":138222,"name":"Ca Feb 22","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/ca-feb-22.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/ca-feb-22.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":4283,"created":"2022-01-25T18:34:00","date":"2022-01-25T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"January 2022 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA","details":"{\"Main\":\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

Drone attacks on UAE hits fuel tankers

On 17 January, an attack using missiles and drones set off explosions of three fuel trucks tankers in an industrial district in southwestern Abu Dhabi near storage tanks for the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC). The attacks had minimal impact on the energy market as ADNOC was able to ensure the reliable and uninterrupted supply of products to its local and international customers.

European gas market volatility exposes risks to security of supply

Natural gas prices pulled back from record levels at the end of December as warmer weather in Asia allowed Europe to source larger volumes of LNG, but gas prices still increased by more than 30 percent in early January amplifying concerns about the cost of heating homes and powering businesses and industry. Regional geopolitical issues threaten security of gas supply exacerbating Europe's energy crisis.

Global oil inventories hit lowest levels since before pandemic driving prices higher

Global crude inventories fell by about 260 million barrels to reach 2.83 billion barrels as of 9 January which is near the lowest level reached in October 2019. Continued onshore crude stockpile draws were led by declines in China and the U.S over the past year. Lower stockpiles combined with milder concern over the Omicron variant has seen oil prices rise to a seven-year high with Brent and WTI holding above $85 a barrel.

US EIA expects US oil production to set record in 2023

The US EIA forecasts US shale will drive US production to an average of 12.4 mb/d in 2023 due to high crude prices that will support the production increase. This increase would surpass the current annual high of 12.3 mb/d set in 2019. The projected rise in US output would represent nine consecutive quarters of growth, beginning in the last three months of 2021.

24th OPEC and non-OPEC Meeting reaffirms production adjustments

On 4 January, OPEC and non-OPEC countries reconfirmed the production adjustment plan and the monthly production adjustment mechanism approved at the 19th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on 18 July and decided to adjust the monthly overall production by 0.4 mb/d for the month of February 2022. The 25th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting is scheduled for 2 February 2022.

2. Key Points

2.1 Demand

The IEA reports less demand growth than OPEC and IEA in 2022.

IEA, OPEC, and EIA demand assessments for 2022 issued in January are new outlooks and have no bearing on the year prior.
IEA reports year-on-year (y-o-y) demand at 3.32 mb/d as the new COVID variant is having less impact on oil consumption.
OPEC's forecasts a slightly higher y-o-y demand growth of 4.15 mb/d.
EIA's assessment reports demand growth of 3.62 mb/d. The IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimates for absolute world demand are now 99.71 mb/d, 100.79 mb/d, and 100.52 mb/d for 2022, respectively.

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA forecast growth in OECD and non-OECD demand.

The IEA reports y-o-y non-OECD demand growth at 1.70 mb/d, while OPEC reports growth at 2.32 mb/d. The EIA's assessment for non-OECD demand growth reaches 2.24 mb/d.
The IEA's estimate for OECD demand growth 1.63 mb/d for 2022. OPEC reports OECD demand growth at 1.84 mb/d while EIA assesses OECD growth at 1.38 mb/d.
OPEC/EIA and OPEC/IEA assessments of OECD and non-OECD demand growth differ by 460 kb/d and 620 kb/d, respectively.

2.2 Supply

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA forecast non-OPEC supply growth in 2022.

The IEA's January assessment for non-OPEC supply reaches a growth of 2.79 mb/d while the EIA reports higher supply growth of 2.84 mb/d y-o-y. OPEC reports the highest growth out of the three organizations at 3.02 mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimate non-OPEC supply at 66.53 mb/d, 66.66 mb/d, and 66.77 mb/d, respectively for 2022.
Both IEA and OPEC estimate OECD oil supply growth this year at 1.36 mb/d, and EIA reports a higher growth of 1.49 mb/d. In absolute terms, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimate OECD oil supply at 29.58 mb/d, 30.82 mb/d, and 32.51 mb/d, respectively for 2022. The difference between IEA/OPEC and EIA on OECD supply growth is 130 kb/d.

OPEC reports higher non-OECD supply growth than the IEA and EIA.

OPEC reports higher non-OECD growth at 1.54 mb/d compared to 1.06 mb/d for the IEA and 1.36 mb/d for EIA.
In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA non-OECD supply estimates are 31.58 mb/d, 33.45 mb/d, and 34.27 mb/d, respectively for 2022 with growth diverging by 480 kb/d.

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA revise OPEC production estimates upwards for December.

The IEA revised its OPEC production estimate upward by 190 kb/d month-on-month (m-o-m) to reach total production of 27.99 mb/d. OPEC's assessment of its own production was revised upwards by 170 kb/d to 27.88 mb/d. The EIA also increased its assessment by 60 kb/d for total OPEC crude production of 27.79 mb/d.

2.3 Stocks

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA continue to display strong alignment on stock figures which are now below the five-year average but still close to or higher than 60 days forward cover.

The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 2756 mb, which is close to OPEC's assessment of 2721 mb and EIA's assessment of 2739 mb. These are around 200 mb, 247 mb, and 215 mb below the five-year average, respectively.
According to the IEA, crude oil inventories built by 12 mb while product stocks drew by 17.8 mb. Other oils, including NGLs and feedstocks drew by 0.3 mb. According to OPEC, crude oil stocks built by 9.4 mb while products built by 0.5 mb.
EIA estimates OECD inventories dropped by 18 mb in November to 2739 mb – 215 mb below the five-year average.
The widest divergence in inventories is between IEA and OPEC which stands at 35 mb. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 413 mb, according to the EIA, which is 8 percent below the five-year average for this time of year. OPEC reports US commercial crude oil stocks at about 418 mb and around 36 mb below the five-year average.

2.4 Snapshot (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

3.1 Demand Data

3.2 Supply Data

3.3 Stock Data

IEF-Kayrros Stock Analysis:

Explanatory Note

The IEF conducts a comprehensive comparative analysis of the short-, medium-, and long-term energy outlooks of the IEA OPEC, and the EIA to inform the IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks that the IEF hosts in Riyadh as part of the trilateral work programme on a yearly basis.

To inform IEF stakeholders on how perspectives on the oil market of both organisations evolve over time regularly, this monthly summary provides:

An overview of key events and initiatives in the international policy and market context.
Key findings and a snapshot overview of data points gained from comparing basic historical data and short-term forecasts of the IEA Oil Market Report, the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, and the EIA Short-term Energy Outlook.
A comparative analysis of oil inventory data reported by the IEA, OPEC, and EIA, and secondary sources in collaboration with Kayrros (added in an updated report on the IEF website).

The International Energy Forum

\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-23","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":136934,"name":"Ca Jan 22","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/ca-jan-22.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/ca-jan-22.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":4264,"created":"2021-12-20T10:27:00","date":"2021-12-20T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"December 2021 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA","details":"{\"Main\":\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

Oil prices rebound after plunging due to new COVID variant

Oil prices plunged by more than 10 percent in late November after the World Health Organization labeled the new-found Omicron COVID variant as a “variant of concern.” Questions surrounding vaccine effectiveness and fears that governments may reimpose restrictions to curb its spread led to one of the biggest daily price collapses in the past two decades. Fears have since subsided and Brent and WTI crude benchmarks have recovered. However, continued uncertainty has the IEA cutting its Q1 demand by 600 kb/d while OPEC reported an increase of 1.11 mb/d.

European and Asian power prices hit record highs

Electricity prices climbed to fresh records. For example, power prices for delivery next year rose by over 15 percent in Germany and almost 14 percent in France. European and Asian utilities are burning more coal and fuel oil due to low natural gas availability, robust demand in winter. Markets are also affected by seasonal factors such as low renewable output and increased exposure to short-term market trends and other risks.

US releases oil from Strategic Petroleum Reserve in coordination with partner countries

On 23 November US President Joe Biden instructed the Department of Energy to make available releases of 50 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to lower domestic oil prices and ease market imbalances. Partner countries followed suit with their own releases the first such move of its kind without the coordination of the International Energy Agency. Major energy consuming nations that partnered with the US decision include China, India, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom.

23rd OPEC and non-OPEC Meeting reaffirms production adjustments and remains in session

On 4 November, OPEC and non-OPEC countries reconfirmed the production adjustment plan and the monthly production adjustment mechanism approved at the 19th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on 18 July and decided to adjust the monthly overall production by 0.4 mb/d for the month of January 2022. Parties remain in session to monitor the market closely and make immediate adjustments if required. The 24th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting is scheduled for 4 January 2022.

2. Key Points

2.1 Demand

The IEA and EIA lower 2021 oil demand growth assessments while OPEC remains stable.

The IEA's demand growth assessment falls year-on-year (y-o-y) by 120 kb/d to 5.37 mb/d for 2021. Demand is expected to grow by 3.34 mb/d in 2022, the IEA reports.
OPEC's y-o-y demand growth remains the same at 5.65 mb/d this year. Next year it forecasts a growth of 4.15 mb/d.
EIA's assessment falls by 10 kb/d for a growth of 5.10 mb/d this year and it sees growth of 3.55 mb/d in 2022. The IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimates for absolute world demand are now 96.19 mb/d, 96.63 mb/d, and 96.91 mb/d for 2021, respectively.

The IEA, OPEC and EIA converge on OECD growth but differ on non-OECD demand growth in 2021.

The IEA's assessment of y-o-y non-OECD demand growth falls by 120 kb/d to 2.87 mb/d, while OPEC also makes a downward revision of 20 kb/d for overall growth of 3.20 mb/d. EIA non-OECD demand growth falls by 70 kb/d for a growth of 2.68 mb/d.
The IEA's estimate for OECD demand falls by 10 kb/d to 2.49 mb/d for 2021. EIA OECD growth rises by 60 kb/d for a growth of 2.42 mb/d. OPEC OECD demand growth forecast rises by 20 kb/d for a growth of 2.46 mb/d.
IEA and EIA assessments of OECD demand growth differ by 70 kb/d, while OPEC and EIA estimates of non-OECD demand growth differ by 520 kb/d.

2.2 Supply

OPEC and EIA make upward revisions on non-OPEC supply growth while IEA remains static.

The IEA's December assessment of non-OPEC remains the same at 0.72 mb/d, while the EIA reports a slightly higher overall supply growth of 0.86 mb/d y-o-y, revised up by 50 kb/d from last month. OPEC non-OPEC supply growth also rises slightly by 20 kb/d for a growth of 0.68 mb/d. Non-OPEC supply growth is expected to increase into 2022 with the IEA reporting growth at 2.93 mb/d, OPEC at 3.02 mb/d, and EIA at 3.03 mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimate non-OPEC supply at 63.73 mb/d, 63.65 mb/d, and 64.00 mb/d, respectively for 2021.
The IEA estimates OECD oil supply growth this year at 0.26 mb/d, OPEC pegs it at 0.29 mb/d, and EIA reports a growth of 0.49 mb/d, an increase of 90 kb/d, 70 kb/d, and 110 kb/d, respectively. In absolute terms, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimate OECD oil supply at 28.20 mb/d, 29.41 mb/d, and 31.05 mb/d, respectively for 2021. The difference between IEA and EIA on OECD supply growth is 230 kb/d.

The EIA reports higher non-OECD supply growth than the IEA and OPEC.

The IEA's non-OECD supply growth assessment is revised down by 10 kb/d to 0.20 mb/d. OPEC's forecast reports a growth of 0.25 mb/d for 2021, which is revised down by 80 kb/d from last month. The EIA is more optimistic for non-OECD supply growth, forecasting a rise of 0.37 mb/d, a figure that was revised down by 60 kb/d from last month. OPEC and EIA report higher growth in 2022 at 1.55 mb/d and 1.45 mb/d, respectively while the IEA forecasts growth at 1.17 mb/d.
In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA non-OECD supply estimates are 30.53 mb/d, 31.96 mb/d, and 32.95 mb/d, respectively for 2021. Divergence on total non-OECD supply growth is widest between the IEA and EIA, differing by 170 kb/d.

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA revise OPEC production estimates upwards for November.

The IEA revised its OPEC production estimate upward by 310 kb/d month-on-month (m-o-m) to reach total production of 27.75 mb/d. OPEC's assessment of its own production was revised upwards by 290 kb/d to 27.72 mb/d. The EIA also increased its assessment by 320 kb/d for total OPEC crude production of 27.70 mb/d.

2.3 Stocks

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA continue to display strong alignment on stock figures which are now below the five-year average but still at or higher than 60 days forward cover.

The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 2737 mb, which is close to OPEC's assessment of 2773 mb and EIA's assessment of 2777 mb. These are 243 mb, 207 mb, and 189 mb below the five-year average, respectively.
According to the IEA, crude oil inventories built by 17.8 mb while product stocks drew by 42.3 mb. Other oils, including NGLs and feedstocks built by 3.3 mb. According to OPEC, crude oil stocks built by 9.4 mb while products built by 0.5 mb.
EIA estimates OECD inventories dropped by 9 mb in October to 2777 mb – 189 mb below the five-year average.
The widest divergence in inventories is between IEA and the IEA which stands at 40 mb. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 433 mb, according to the EIA, which is 7 percent below the five-year average for this time of year. OPEC also reports US commercial crude oil stocks at about 433 mb and around 35 mb below the five-year average.

2.4 Snapshot (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

3.1 Demand Data

3.2 Supply Data

3.3 Stock Data

IEF-Kayrros Stock Analysis:

JODI Data:

US crude oil closing stock level rose month-on-month in October for the first time since March 2021. Stocks rose by 7.07 mb to 1045.73 mb, but remain 37.7 mb below October 2019 levels.

US gasoline closing stock level in fell month-on-month in October by 15.51 mb to its lowest level since October 2014 at 213.6 mb.

UK crude oil stocks fell month-on-month in October by 811 kb to 19.78 mb registering the lowest level since monitoring began in January 2002.

UK total oil products closing stock level in October fell by 734 kb to 40.24 mb, its lowest level since November 2018.

Korean crude oil stocks fell in October for a sixth consecutive month by 811 kb to 105.53 mb – its lowest level since February 2011.

Explanatory Note

To inform IEF stakeholders on how perspectives on the oil market of both organisations evolve over time regularly, this monthly summary provides:

An overview of key events and initiatives in the international policy and market context.
Key findings and a snapshot overview of data points gained from comparing basic historical data and short-term forecasts of the IEA Oil Market Report, the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, and the EIA Short-term Energy Outlook.
A comparative analysis of oil inventory data reported by the IEA, OPEC, and EIA, and secondary sources in collaboration with Kayrros (added in an updated report on the IEF website).

The International Energy Forum

\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-22","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":136583,"name":"Ca Dec 21","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/ca-dec-21.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/ca-dec-21.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":4188,"created":"2021-11-17T14:18:00","date":"2021-11-17T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"November 2021 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA","details":"{\"Main\":\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

G20 Leaders Reaffirm Collaboration with the IEF on Energy Climate and Transitions

G20 Leaders gathered in Rome under the G20 Presidency of Italy on 30-31 October called on the IEF to intensify dialogue and collaboration between producers and consumers to bolster the efficiency, transparency, and stability of the energy markets. Both the IEF and G20 remain committed to maintaining energy security, while addressing climate change in just and orderly transitions that work for all.

COP26 Reaches Consensus to Address Climate Change

Countries struck an agreement on 13 November to combat climate change reflected in the \\\"Glasgow Climate Pact.\\\" Highlights from the agreement include:
- Strengthening emissions-reduction targets by the end of next year keeping global warming well under 2 degrees Celsius, and close to 1.5 degrees, by the end of the century compared with preindustrial-era temperatures.
- An agreement to reduce reliance on coal and inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that cause wasteful consumption.
- Urging developed countries to at least double their collective provision of climate finance for adaptation to developing countries from 2019 levels by 2025.
- New rules for trading carbon credits between countries, allowing governments to achieve their emissions goals by funding emissions reduction projects in another country.

US EIA Forecasts Rising Inventories in Early 2022

According to its latest short-term market outlook, the US EIA forecasts a return to inventory builds around the first half of 2022. The combination of production adjustments from OPEC+ nations, higher production from US producers and slower growth in global oil demand would see supply outpacing demand for the first time since the second quarter of 2020. The EIA sees non-OPEC growth at 3.23 mb/d in 2022 compared to 3.02 mb/d for OPEC and 3.06 mb/d for the IEA.

22nd OPEC and non-OPEC Meeting reaffirms production adjustments

On 4 November, OPEC and non-OPEC countries reconfirmed the production adjustment plan and the monthly production adjustment mechanism approved at the 19th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on 18 July and decided to adjust the monthly overall production by 0.4 mb/d for the month of December 2021. The 23rd OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting is scheduled for 2 December 2021.

2. Key Points

2.1 Demand

The IEA and OPEC lower 2021 oil demand growth assessments while EIA's rises.

The IEA's demand growth assessment falls year-on-year (y-o-y) by 40 kb/d to 5.49 mb/d for 2021. Demand is expected to grow by 3.37 mb/d in 2022, the IEA reports.
OPEC's y-o-y demand growth estimate falls by 170 kb/d to 5.65 mb/d this year. Next year it forecasts a growth of 4.15 mb/d.
EIA's assessment rises by 60 kb/d for a growth of 5.11 mb/d this year and it sees growth of 3.35 mb/d in 2022. The IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimates for absolute world demand are now 96.28 mb/d, 96.44 mb/d, and 97.53 mb/d for 2021, respectively.

The IEA, OPEC and EIA converge on OECD growth but differ slightly on non-OECD demand growth in 2021.

The IEA's assessment of y-o-y non-OECD demand growth falls by 90 kb/d to 2.99 mb/d, while OPEC also makes a downward revision of 120 kb/d for overall growth of 3.22 mb/d. EIA non-OECD demand growth rises by 30 kb/d for a growth of 2.75 mb/d.
The IEA's estimate for OECD demand rises by 50 kb/d to 2.50 mb/d for 2021. EIA OECD growth also rises by 30 kb/d for a growth of 2.36 mb/d. OPEC OECD demand growth forecast falls by 40 kb/d for a growth of 2.44 mb/d.
IEA and EIA assessments of OECD demand growth differ by 140 kb/d, while OPEC and EIA estimates of non-OECD demand growth differ by 470 kb/d.

2.2 Supply

The IEA and EIA make upward revisions on non-OPEC supply growth while OPEC remains static.

The IEA's November assessment of non-OPEC supply rises by 110 kb/d for a total growth of 0.72 mb/d, while the EIA reports a slightly higher overall supply growth of 0.81 mb/d y-o-y, revised up by 140 kb/d from last month. OPEC non-OPEC supply growth remains the same as last month at 0.66 mb/d. Non-OPEC supply growth is expected to increase into 2022 with the IEA reporting growth at 3.06 mb/d, OPEC at 3.02 mb/d, and EIA at 3.23mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimate non-OPEC supply at 63.72 mb/d, 63.64 mb/d, and 64.29 mb/d, respectively for 2021.
The IEA estimates OECD oil supply growth this year at 0.17 mb/d, OPEC pegs it at 0.21 mb/d, and EIA reports a growth of 0.38 mb/d, an increase of 110 kb/d, 30 kb/d, and 200 kb/d, respectively. In absolute terms, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimate OECD oil supply at 28.11 mb/d, 29.32 mb/d, and 31.11 mb/d, respectively for 2021. The difference between IEA and EIA on OECD supply growth is 210 kb/d.

The EIA reports higher non-OECD supply growth than the IEA and OPEC.

The IEA's non-OECD supply growth assessment is revised up by 10 kb/d to 0.21 mb/d. OPEC's forecast reports a growth of 0.33 mb/d for 2021, which is revised down by 20 kb/d from last month. The EIA is more optimistic for non-OECD supply growth, forecasting a rise of 0.43 mb/d, a figure that was revised down by 50 kb/d from last month. OPEC and EIA report higher growth in 2022 at 1.61 mb/d and 1.45, respectively while the IEA forecasts growth at 1.21 mb/d.
In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA non-OECD supply estimates are 30.57 mb/d, 32.04 mb/d, and 33.18 mb/d, respectively for 2021. Divergence on total non-OECD supply growth is widest between the IEA and EIA, differing by 220 kb/d.

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA revise OPEC production estimates upwards for October.

The IEA revised its OPEC production estimate upward by 240 kb/d month-on-month (m-o-m) to reach total production of 27.42 mb/d. OPEC's assessment of its own production was revised upwards by 220 kb/d to 27.45 mb/d. The EIA also increased its assessment by 240 kb/d for total OPEC crude production of 27.40 mb/d.

2.3 Stocks

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA continue to display strong alignment on stock figures which are now below the five-year average but still at or higher than 60 days forward cover.

The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 2762 mb, which is close to OPEC's assessment of 2805 mb and EIA's assessment of 2782 mb. These are 250 mb, 206 mb, and 216 mb below the five-year average, respectively.
According to the IEA, crude oil inventories drew by 25.4 mb while product stocks drew by 23.4 mb. Other oils, including NGLs and feedstocks drew by 2.8 mb. According to OPEC, crude oil stocks drew by 9.3 mb while products drew by 9.2 mb.
EIA estimates OECD inventories dropped by 23 mb in September to 2782 mb – 216 mb below the five-year average.
The widest divergence in inventories is between OPEC and the IEA which stands at 43 mb. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 435 mb, according to the EIA, which is 7 percent below the five-year average for this time of year. OPEC reports US commercial crude oil stocks at about 434 mb and around 30 mb below the five-year average.

2.4 Snapshot (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

3.1 Demand Data

3.2 Supply Data

3.3 Stock Data

IEF-Kayrros Stock Analysis:

JODI Data:

US crude oil closing stock levels in September fell further month-on-month by 4.36 mb to an 85-month-low of 1038.66 mb.

Korean crude oil closing stock levels in September fell further month-on-month by 1.85 kb to a 140-month low of 106.34 mb.

UK crude oil closing stock levels in September fell further month-on-month by 2.86 mb to 21.13 mb registering the lowest level since monitoring began in January 2002.

While its August figures were significantly revised downward, German crude oil closing stock levels in September rose month-on-month by 1.6 mb to 153.46 mb.

Explanatory Note

To inform IEF stakeholders on how perspectives on the oil market of both organisations evolve over time regularly, this monthly summary provides:

An overview of key events and initiatives in the international policy and market context.
Key findings and a snapshot overview of data points gained from comparing basic historical data and short-term forecasts of the IEA Oil Market Report, the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, and the EIA Short-term Energy Outlook.
A comparative analysis of oil inventory data reported by the IEA, OPEC, and EIA, and secondary sources in collaboration with Kayrros (added in an updated report on the IEF website).

The International Energy Forum

\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-21","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":135241,"name":"Ca Nov 2021","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/ca-nov-2021.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/ca-nov-2021.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":4116,"created":"2021-10-18T16:29:00","date":"2021-10-18T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"October 2021 summary findings from a comparison of data and forecasts on the oil market by IEA, OPEC and EIA","details":"{\"Main\":\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

Cost of energy rises around the world

Several factors including a robust return of pent-up demand, underinvestment in fossil fuels and weak renewable supplies have seen prices of oil, natural gas, coal, and electricity surge. The US WTI benchmark crossed $80 a barrel for the first time since 2014 and natural gas benchmarks including the UK NBP, Dutch TTF and Asia's JKM all reached all-time highs. US month-ahead natural gas prices more than tripled to reach their highest level since 2008 prior to the shale gas revolution.

More than 30 countries join pledge to cut methane emissions by 30 percent

US President Joe Biden announced an agreement with the EU to reduce methane emissions at a Meeting of the Major Economies on Energy and Climate on 17 September. Since then, 24 new signatories have joined the Global Methane Pledge which now includes nine of the top 20 emitters, covers 60 percent of global GDP, and accounts for 30 percent of global methane emissions. The IEF Methane Measurement Methodology Initiative provides an important methodology to implement this pledge.

Upgraded Canadian oil pipeline begins operations

Enbridge Inc. started delivering crude via its new Line 3 crude pipeline on 1 October. The replacement of Line 3 is expected to add about 370,000 additional barrels per day of crude oil export capacity from Western Canada to refineries in the US Midwest. The additional barrels from Canada to U.S. refiners partially offset shrinking imports from South America and the loss of about 30 million barrels of Gulf of Mexico production after Hurricane Ida.

21st OPEC and non-OPEC Meeting reaffirms production adjustments

On 4 October, OPEC and non-OPEC countries reconfirmed the production adjustment plan and the monthly production adjustment mechanism approved at the 19th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting and the decision to adjust upward the monthly overall production by 0.4 mb/d for the month of November 2021. The 22nd OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting is scheduled for 4 November 2021.

2. Key Points

2.1 Demand

The IEA and EIA raise 2021 oil demand growth assessments while OPEC's falls.

The IEA's demand growth assessment rises year-on-year (y-o-y) by 300 kb/d to 5.53 mb/d for 2021. Demand is expected to grow by 3.29 mb/d in 2022, the IEA reports.
OPEC's y-o-y demand growth estimate falls by 140 kb/d to 5.82 mb/d this year. Next year it forecasts a growth of 4.15 mb/d.
EIA's assessment rises by 90 kb/d for a growth of 5.05 mb/d this year and it sees growth of 3.48 mb/d in 2022. The IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimates for absolute world demand are now 96.31 mb/d, 96.60 mb/d, and 97.47 mb/d for 2021, respectively.

The EIA and the IEA report higher OECD and non-OECD demand growth in 2021 while OPEC growth falls.

The IEA's assessment of y-o-y non-OECD demand growth rises by 120 kb/d to 3.08 mb/d, while the EIA also makes an upward revision of 80 kb/d for overall growth of 2.72 mb/d. OPEC's non-OECD demand growth falls by 30 kb/d for a growth of 3.34 mb/d.
The IEA's estimate for OECD demand rises by 180 kb/d to 2.45 mb/d for 2021. EIA OECD growth remains unchanged at 2.33 mb/d. OPEC OECD demand growth forecast falls by 100 kb/d for a growth of 2.48 mb/d.
OPEC and EIA assessments of OECD demand growth differ by 150 kb/d, while OPEC and EIA estimates of non-OECD demand growth differ by 620 kb/d.

2.2 Supply

The IEA, OPEC and EIA make downward revisions on non-OPEC supply growth and converge to the closest point this year.

The IEA's October assessment of non-OPEC supply fell by 70 kb/d for a total growth of 0.61 mb/d, while the EIA reports a slightly higher overall supply growth of 0.67 mb/d y-o-y, revised down by 250 kb/d from last month. OPEC revised its non-OPEC supply growth estimate down by 260 kb/d to 0.66 mb/d. Non-OPEC supply growth is expected to increase into 2022 with the IEA reporting growth at 2.96 mb/d, OPEC at 3.02 mb/d, and EIA at 3.28 mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimate non-OPEC supply at 63.62 mb/d, 63.64 mb/d, and 64.15 mb/d, respectively for 2021.
The IEA estimates OECD oil supply growth this year at 0.06 mb/d while OPEC pegs it at 0.18 mb/d, a decrease of 10 kb/d and 170 kb/d, respectively. The EIA also lowered its estimate by 140 kb/d for a growth of 0.18 mb/d. In absolute terms, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimate OECD oil supply at 28.00 mb/d, 29.30 mb/d, and 30.91 mb/d, respectively for 2021. The difference between OPEC/EIA and IEA OECD supply growth is 120 kb/d.

The EIA reports higher non-OECD supply growth than the IEA and OPEC.

The IEA's non-OECD supply growth assessment is revised down by 50 kb/d to 0.20 mb/d. OPEC's forecast reports a growth of 0.35 mb/d for 2021, which is revised down by 80 kb/d from last month. The EIA is more optimistic for non-OECD supply growth, forecasting a rise of 0.48 mb/d, a figure that was revised down by 110 kb/d from last month. OPEC and EIA report higher growth in 2022 at 1.61 mb/d and 1.48, respectively while the IEA forecasts growth at 1.19 mb/d.
In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA non-OECD supply estimates are 30.57 mb/d, 32.06 mb/d, and 33.23 mb/d, respectively for 2021. Divergence on total non-OECD supply growth is widest between the IEA and EIA, differing by 280 kb/d.

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA revise OPEC production estimates upwards for September.

The IEA revised its OPEC production estimate upward by 340 kb/d month-on-month (m-o-m) to reach total production of 27.15 mb/d. OPEC's assessment of its own production was revised upwards by 490 kb/d to 27.33 mb/d. The EIA also increased its assessment by 380 kb/d for total OPEC crude production of 27.16 mb/d.

2.3 Stocks

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA continue to display strong alignment on stock figures which are now below the five-year average but still higher than 60 days forward cover.

The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 2824 mb, which is close to OPEC's assessment of 2855 mb and EIA's assessment of 2811 mb. These are 214.8 mb, 183 mb, and 215.2 mb below the five-year average, respectively.
According to the IEA, crude oil inventories drew by 29.4 mb while product stocks built by 4.5 mb. Other oils, including NGLs and feedstocks drew by 3.3 mb. According to OPEC, crude oil stocks drew by 22.8 mb while products built by 3.2 mb.
EIA estimates OECD inventories dropped by 54 mb in August to 2811 mb – 215.2 mb below the five-year average.
The widest divergence in inventories is between OPEC and the EIA which stands at 44 mb. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 421 mb, according to the EIA, which is 7 percent below the five-year average for this time of year. OPEC reports US commercial crude oil stocks at about 421 mb and around 35 mb below the five-year average.

2.4 Snapshot (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

3.1 Demand Data

3.2 Supply Data

3.3 Stock Data

IEF-Kayrros Stock Analysis:

JODI Data:

US crude oil closing stock levels in August further fell month-on-month by 14.62 mb to an 83-month-low of 1045.61 mb.

UK crude oil closing stock levels in August fell sharply month-on-month by 3.47 kb to 23.34 mb registering the lowest level since monitoring began in January 2002.

German crude oil closing stock level in August rose again month-on-month by 1.31 MBBL to 155.62 MBBL.

Explanatory Note

To inform IEF stakeholders on how perspectives on the oil market of both organisations evolve over time regularly, this monthly summary provides:

An overview of key events and initiatives in the international policy and market context.
Key findings and a snapshot overview of data points gained from comparing basic historical data and short-term forecasts of the IEA Oil Market Report, the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, and the EIA Short-term Energy Outlook.
A comparative analysis of oil inventory data reported by the IEA, OPEC, and EIA, and secondary sources in collaboration with Kayrros (added in an updated report on the IEF website).

The International Energy Forum

\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-20","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":133475,"name":"Oct 21","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/oct-21.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/oct-21.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":4084,"created":"2021-09-16T09:05:00","date":"2021-09-16T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","details":"{\"Main\":\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline construction now complete

Russia's gas company, Gazprom, announced the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline was complete on 10 September. In late August, a German court rejected an appeal to allow the pipeline to be exempt from the EU's Gas Directive subjecting the line to EU energy market rules. Natural gas shipments can start this year, pending approvals and certifications from Germany's energy regulator.

Costs of electricity and natural gas surge across Europe

Consumers in Europe are facing higher energy prices as wholesale electricity costs surpassed their highest ever level on 6 September. The main causes for the price spikes include lower than expected wind generation, low natural gas storage levels, and poor interconnections in combination with greater competition with Asia for LNG shipments.

20th OPEC and non-OPEC Meeting reaffirms production adjustments

On 1 September, OPEC and non-OPEC countries reconfirmed the production adjustment plan and the monthly production adjustment mechanism approved at the 19th Meeting and the decision to adjust upward the monthly overall production by 400 kb/d for the month of October 2021. The 21st OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting is scheduled for 4 October 2021.

Hurricane Ida leaves a million without power and disrupts US Gulf Coast production

The category 4 hurricane was the strongest to hit the US mainland in 16 years when it made landfall on 29 August. Ida severely damaged critical infrastructure and left a million people without power in Louisiana. About 90 percent of oil and 85 percent of natural gas production shut down on the US Gulf Coast. More than a week after the landfall, outage stood at ~1 mb/d with a cumulative loss of ~20 million barrels.

2. Key Points

2.1 Demand

The IEA and EIA lowers 2021 oil demand growth assessments while OPEC's demand growth increases slightly after five months.

The IEA's assessment of y-o-y non-OECD demand growth fell by 40 kb/d to 2.90 mb/d, while the EIA makes a downwards revision of 170 kb/d for overall growth of 2.64 mb/d. OPEC's non-OECD demand growth remains the same as last month at 3.37 mb/d.
The IEA's estimate for OECD demand fell by 60 kb/d to 2.33 mb/d for 2021. EIA also sees growth at the same level, its estimate revised down by 200 kb/d. OPEC OECD demand growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.58 mb/d.
OPEC and IEA/EIA assessments of OECD demand growth differ by 250 kb/d, while OPEC and EIA estimates of non-OECD demand growth differ by 730 kb/d.

2.2 Supply

OPEC and EIA report the same non-OPEC supply growth while the IEA's estimate is revised down further.

The IEA's September assessment of non-OPEC supply fell by 180 kb/d for a total growth of 0.68 mb/d, while the EIA reports a higher overall supply growth of 0.92 mb/d y-o-y, revised down by 190 kb/d from last month. OPEC revised its non-OPEC supply growth estimate down by 170 kb/d to 0.92 mb/d as well. Non-OPEC supply growth is expected to increase into 2022 with the IEA reporting growth at 2.98 mb/d, OPEC at 2.95 mb/d, and EIA at 3.18 mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimate non-OPEC supply at 63.69 mb/d, 63.85 mb/d, and 64.39 mb/d, respectively for 2021.
The IEA estimates OECD oil supply growth this year at 0.07 mb/d while OPEC pegs it at 0.35 mb/d, a decrease of 100 kb/d and 140 kb/d, respectively. The EIA also lowered its estimate by 120 kb/d for a growth of 0.32 mb/d. In absolute terms, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimate OECD oil supply at 28.01 mb/d, 29.48 mb/d, and 31.05 mb/d, respectively for 2021. The greatest divergence on OECD supply growth is between IEA and EIA at 3.04 mb/d.

The EIA reports higher non-OECD supply growth than the IEA and OPEC.

The IEA's non-OECD supply growth assessment is revised down by 70 kb/d to 0.25 mb/d. OPEC's forecast reports a growth of 0.43 mb/d for 2021, which is revised down by 40 kb/d from last month. The EIA is more optimistic for non-OECD supply growth, forecasting a rise of 0.59 mb/d, a figure that was revised down by 80 kb/d from last month. OPEC and EIA report higher growth in 2022 at 1.55 mb/d while the IEA forecasts growth at 1.23 mb/d.
In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA non-OECD supply estimates are 30.62 mb/d, 32.08 mb/d, and 33.33 mb/d, respectively for 2021. Divergence on total non-OECD supply growth is widest between the IEA and EIA, differing by 2.71 mb/d.

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA revise OPEC production estimates upwards for August.

The IEA revised its OPEC production estimate upward by 210 kb/d month-on-month (m-o-m) to reach total production of 26.89 mb/d. OPEC's assessment of its own production was revised upwards by 150 kb/d to 26.76 mb/d. The EIA also increased its assessment by 70 kb/d for total OPEC crude production of 26.78 mb/d.

2.3 Stocks

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA continue to display strong alignment on stock figures which are now below the five-year average but still higher than 60 days forward cover.

The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 2850 mb, which is close to OPEC's assessment of 2912 mb and EIA's assessment of 2865 mb which is 185.7 mb, 122 mb, and 158.6 mb below the five-year average, respectively.
According to the IEA, crude oil inventories drew by 14.8 mb while product stocks drew by 16.1 mb. Other oils, including NGLs and feedstocks drew by 3.6 mb. According to OPEC, crude oil stocks drew by 5.6 mb while products built by 16.1 mb.
EIA estimates OECD inventories dropped by 8 mb in July to 2865 mb – 158.6 mb below the five-year average.
The widest divergence in inventories is between OPEC and the IEA which stands at 62 mb. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 424 mb according to the EIA which are 6 percent below the five-year average for this time of year. OPEC reports US commercial crude oil stocks at about 425 mb and around 32 mb below the five-year average.

2.4 Snapshot (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

3.1 Demand Data

3.2 Supply Data

3.3 Stock Data

IEF-Kayrros Stock Analysis:

JODI Data:

US crude oil closing stock levels in July fell m-o-m by 8.85 mb to an 80-month low of 1060.40 mb.

Korean crude oil closing stock levels in July fell m-o-m by 7.11 kb to 112.42 mb.

UK crude oil closing stock levels in July rose m-o-m by 118 kb to 26.67 mb.

While its June figures were significantly revised downward, German crude oil closing stock levels in July rose month-on-month by 2.91 mb to 155.35 mb.

Explanatory Note

To inform IEF stakeholders on how perspectives on the oil market of both organisations evolve over time regularly, this monthly summary provides:

An overview of key events and initiatives in the international policy and market context.
Key findings and a snapshot overview of data points gained from comparing basic historical data and short-term forecasts of the IEA Oil Market Report, the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, and the EIA Short-term Energy Outlook.
A comparative analysis of oil inventory data reported by the IEA, OPEC, and EIA, and secondary sources in collaboration with Kayrros (added in an updated report on the IEF website).

The International Energy Forum

\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-19","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":132395,"name":"Aug 21 596Px","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/aug-21_596px.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/aug-21_596px.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":4072,"created":"2021-08-21T11:16:00","date":"2021-08-21T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","details":"{\"Main\":\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

G20 Energy-Climate Ministerial Meeting Adopts Joint Communique

The G20 Ministers of Energy and Climate met in Naples on 23 July 2021 and adopted – for the first time – a joint final communiqué, giving momentum to their core mission to preserve the global climate and ensure a clean and inclusive energy transition. Two actions remain open, namely setting a date to phase out unabated coal, stopping international financing of unabated coal, and phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. These will be the subject of further discussions at the G20 Rome Summit in October ahead of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 26) in November.

The UN IPCC Publishes Latest Assessment Report on Climate Science

The United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published the first part of its sixth assessment report (AR6) on 9 August. A key development since the last report (AR5) in 2013-14 is the strengthening of the links between human-caused warming and increasingly extreme weather. The report outlines global warming is expected to hit or exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius within the next two decades in almost all emission scenarios.

Drone Attack Raises Market Concerns

On 29 July, a petroleum products tanker managed by Israeli-owned Zodiac Maritime came under attack on Thursday off Oman's coast. Oil prices rose more than 1 percent on 5th August on due to increasing tensions, but gains were capped due to the increasing spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant along with new country restrictions that could slow global demand recovery.

19th OPEC and non-OPEC Meeting Agrees to Ease Production Adjustments

OPEC and non-OPEC countries agreed to ease production adjustments by adding 400 kb/d monthly starting August 2021 until the 5.8 mb/d production adjustment is entirely phased out. If the production additions go to schedule, full production will be restored by September 2022. The Declaration of Cooperation has officially been extended until December 2022. The 20th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting is scheduled for 1 September 2021.

2. Key Points

2.1 Demand

The IEA lowered its 2021 oil demand growth assessment slightly while EIA remains the same as last month. OPEC's demand growth estimate remains unchanged for the fifth month in a row.

The IEA decreased its assessment of year-on-year (y-o-y) demand growth by 50 kb/d to 5.34 mb/d. Demand is expected to see further growth of 3.16 mb/d in 2022, the IEA reports.
OPEC's y-o-y demand growth estimate remains the same as last month at 5.95 mb/d. OPEC forecasts demand growth at 3.28 mb/d in 2022.
EIA's assessment of this year's remains at 5.33 mb/d and will see a growth of 3.62 mb/d in 2022. The IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimates for absolute world demand are now 96.15 mb/d, 96.57 mb/d, and 97.63 mb/d for 2021, respectively.

The IEA and EIA converge on both OECD and non-OECD demand growth while OPEC reports higher non-OECD growth.

The IEA's assessment of y-o-y non-OECD demand growth rose by 170 kb/d to 2.94 mb/d, while the EIA reports a decrease of 30 kb/d for overall growth of 2.81 mb/d. OPEC's non-OECD demand growth estimate increases by 70 kb/d for a growth of 3.37 mb/d.
The IEA's estimate for OECD demand fell by 230 kb/d to 2.39 mb/d for 2021. EIA's assessment sees growth at 2.53 mb/d y-o-y, an increase of 40 kb/d. OPEC OECD demand growth falls by 70 kb/d for a growth of 2.58 mb/d.
OPEC and IEA assessments of OECD demand growth differ by 190 kb/d, while OPEC and EIA assessments of non-OECD demand growth differ by 560 kb/d.

2.2 Supply

Non-OPEC supply growth assessments by OPEC and EIA begin to converge while the IEA's estimate decreases.

The IEA's August assessment of non-OPEC supply fell by 50 kb/d for a total growth of 0.86 mb/d, while the EIA reports a higher overall supply growth of 1.11 mb/d y-o-y, up by 40 kb/d from last month's assessment. OPEC revised its non-OPEC supply growth estimate by 280 kb/d to 1.09 mb/d. Non-OPEC supply growth is expected to increase into 2022 with the IEA reporting growth at 2.88 mb/d, OPEC at 2.94 mb/d, and EIA at 3.04 mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimate non-OPEC supply at 63.87 mb/d, 64.00 mb/d, and 64.57 mb/d, respectively for 2021.
The IEA estimates OECD oil supply growth this year at 0.17 mb/d while OPEC pegs it at 0.49 mb/d, a decrease of 160 kb/d and an increase of 80 kb/d, respectively. The EIA also raised its estimate by 60 kb/d for a growth of 0.44 mb/d. In absolute terms, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimate OECD oil supply at 28.10 mb/d, 29.61 mb/d, and 31.16 mb/d, respectively for 2021. The greatest divergence on OECD supply growth is between OPEC and IEA at 320 kb/d.

The EIA reports higher non-OECD supply growth than the IEA and OPEC.

The IEA's non-OECD supply growth assessment is revised up by 120 kb/d to 0.32 mb/d. OPEC's forecast reports a growth of 0.47 mb/d for 2021, which is also revised up by 200 kb/d from last month. The EIA is substantially more optimistic for non-OECD supply growth, forecasting a rise of 0.67 mb/d, a figure that was revised down by 20 kb/d from last month. OPEC reports higher growth in 2022 at 1.60 mb/d while the EIA and IEA forecast growth at 1.49 mb/d and 1.22 mb/d, respectively.
In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA non-OECD supply estimates are 30.70 mb/d, 32.11 mb/d, and 33.41 mb/d, respectively for 2021. Divergence on total non-OECD supply growth is widest between the IEA and EIA, differing by 350 kb/d.

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA revise OPEC production estimates upwards for July.

The IEA revised its OPEC production estimate upward by 720 kb/d month-on-month (m-o-m) in July to reach total production of 26.68 mb/d. OPEC's assessment of its own production in July was revised upwards by 640 kb/d to 26.66 mb/d. The EIA also increased its assessment by 670 kb/d for total OPEC crude production of 26.71 mb/d in July.

2.3 Stocks

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA continue to display strong alignment on stock figures which are now below the five-year average but still higher than 60 days forward cover.

The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 2882 mb, which is close to OPEC's assessment of 2922 mb and EIA's assessment of 2873 mb which is 131.2 mb, 90.4 mb, and 128 mb below the five-year average, respectively.
According to the IEA, crude oil inventories drew by 34.3 mb while product stocks drew by 18.3 mb. Other oils, including NGLs and feedstocks built by 2.3 mb. According to OPEC, crude oil stocks drew by 38.3 mb while products built by 15.3 mb.
EIA estimates OECD inventories dropped by 5 mb in June to 2873 mb – 128 mb below the five-year average.
The widest divergence in inventories is between OPEC and the EIA which stands at 49 mb. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 439 mb according to the EIA which are 6 percent below the five-year average for this time of year. OPEC reports US commercial crude oil stocks at about 439 mb and around 30 mb below the five-year average.

2.4 Snapshot (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

3.1 Demand Data

3.2 Supply Data

3.3 Stock Data

IEF-Kayrros Stock Analysis:

JODI Data:

US crude oil closing stock levels in May fell m-o-m by 19.82 mb to 1103.34 mb.

Korean crude oil closing stock levels in May fell m-o-m by 1.11 mb to 119.84 mb.

UK crude oil closing stock levels in May fell m-o-m by 2.89 mb to 23.33 mb.

While its April figures were significantly revised downward, German crude oil closing stock levels in May rose m-o-m by 1.67 mb to 153.89 mb.

Explanatory Note

To inform IEF stakeholders on how perspectives on the oil market of both organisations evolve over time regularly, this monthly summary provides:

An overview of key events and initiatives in the international policy and market context.
Key findings and a snapshot overview of data points gained from comparing basic historical data and short-term forecasts of the IEA Oil Market Report, the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, and the EIA Short-term Energy Outlook.
A comparative analysis of oil inventory data reported by the IEA, OPEC, and EIA, and secondary sources in collaboration with Kayrros (added in an updated report on the IEF website).

The International Energy Forum

\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-18","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":131676,"name":"Aug 21","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/aug-21.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/aug-21.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":4046,"created":"2021-07-29T11:15:00","date":"2021-07-29T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","details":"{\"Main\":\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

Global Oil Balances to Tighten Further in Third Quarter

Global oil demand is expected to rise between 5 mb/d and 6 mb/d in 2021 and between 3 mb/d and 4 mb/d in 2022 according to the IEA, OPEC, and EIA, respectively. Pending further OPEC+ supply adjustments, the third quarter of 2021 could see the largest crude inventory draw in at least a decade, tightening oil market balances significantly.

EU Unveils \\\"Fit for 55\\\" Climate Roadmap

On 14 July, the European Commission the European Commission adopted a legislative package known as \\\"Fit for 55\\\" to align EU policy with the ambitious political mandates of the Green Deal and EU Climate Law. This includes lowering the European Emission Trading System cap faster and extending its coverage to the transport sector. It also includes introducing a carbon border adjustment tariff on selected imports into the EU to avoid 'carbon leakage' and encourage global policy cohesion.

China's National Carbon Market Begins Trading

China's national carbon market, which will become the world's largest emissions trading system, began operations on 16 July 2021. In the initial stage, the first consignment of carbon emission allowances will be given to key companies in the electricity industry. About 2,200 companies with around 4 billion tonnes of carbon emissions will be included in the carbon trade market comprising 30 percent of China's total emissions.

Global Oil and Asian LNG Prices Climb to New Highs

Upward price pressures on oil prices remain robust after OPEC agreed to leave production adjustments largely unchanged. Demand recovery outpaces non-OPEC supply growth with the US EIA increasing its Brent price forecast to $72 per barrel for the second half of 2021 and $67 per barrel for the year. Asian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices spiked to a fresh eight-year seasonal high in early July to more than $14 MMBtu as demand remained robust globally for power generation needs in the summer. This is the highest spot price since 2013.

2. Key Points

2.1 Demand

The IEA raised its 2021 oil demand growth assessment slightly while the EIA revised its estimate lower. OPEC's demand growth estimate remains unchanged for the fourth month in a row.

The IEA increased its assessment of year-on-year (y-o-y) demand growth by 30 kb/d to 5.39 mb/d. Demand is expected to see further growth of 3.01 mb/d in 2022, the IEA reports.
OPEC's y-o-y demand growth estimate remains the same as last month at 5.95 mb/d. OPEC forecasts demand growth at 3.28 mb/d in 2022.
EIA's assessment of this year's demand growth fell by 80 kb/d to 5.33 mb/d and is pegged at 3.72 mb/d in 2022. The IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimates for absolute world demand are now 96.45 mb/d, 96.58 mb/d, and 97.63 mb/d for 2021, respectively.

The IEA and EIA converge on both OECD and non-OECD demand growth while OPEC's assessment remains static.

The IEA's assessment of y-o-y non-OECD demand growth rose by 120 kb/d to 2.77 mb/d, while the EIA reports a decrease of 150 kb/d for overall growth of 2.84 mb/d. OPEC's non-OECD demand growth estimate remains the same as last month at 3.30 mb/d.
The IEA's estimate for OECD demand fell by 80 kb/d to 2.62 mb/d for 2021. EIA's assessment sees growth at 2.49 mb/d y-o-y, an increase of 60 kb/d. OPEC OECD demand growth remains the same as last month at 2.65 mb/d.
OPEC and EIA assessments of OECD demand growth differ by 0.16 mb/d, while OPEC and IEA assessments of non-OECD demand growth differ by 530 kb/d.

2.2 Supply

Non-OPEC supply growth assessments by the IEA and EIA begin to diverge while OPEC's estimate remains steady.

The IEA's July assessment of non-OPEC supply rose by 40 kb/d for a total growth of 0.91 mb/d, while the EIA reports a higher overall supply growth of 1.07 mb/d y-o-y, down by 100 kb/d from last month's assessment. OPEC revised its non-OPEC supply growth estimate slightly by 30 kb/d to 0.81 mb/d. Non-OPEC supply growth is expected to increase into 2022 with the IEA reporting growth at 1.76 mb/d, OPEC at 2.10 mb/d, and EIA at 3.10 mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimate non-OPEC supply at 63.93 mb/d, 63.76 mb/d, and 64.56 mb/d, respectively for 2021.
The IEA estimates OECD oil supply growth this year at 0.33 mb/d while OPEC pegs it at 0.41 mb/d, an increase of 90 kb/d and 20 kb/d, respectively. The EIA also trimmed its estimate by 20 kb/d for a growth of 0.38 mb/d. In absolute terms, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimate OECD oil supply at 28.22 mb/d, 29.56 mb/d, and 31.13 mb/d, respectively for 2021. The greatest divergence on OECD supply growth is between OPEC and IEA at 80 kb/d.

The EIA reports higher non-OECD supply growth than the IEA and OPEC.

The IEA's non-OECD supply growth assessment is revised down by 50 kb/d to 0.20 mb/d. OPEC's forecast reports a growth of 0.27 mb/d for 2021, which is also revised down by 50 kb/d from last month. The EIA is substantially more optimistic for non-OECD supply growth, forecasting a rise of 0.69 mb/d, a figure that was revised down by 80 kb/d from last month. This divergence of estimates continues into 2022 with the EIA forecasting growth at 1.49 mb/d compared to the IEA and OPEC at 0.17 mb/d and 0.85 mb/d, respectively.
In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA non-OECD supply estimates are 30.63 mb/d, 31.91 mb/d, and 33.52 mb/d, respectively for 2021. Divergence on total non-OECD supply growth is widest between the IEA and EIA, differing by 490 kb/d.

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA revise OPEC production estimates upwards for June.

The IEA revised its OPEC production estimate upward by 450 kb/d month-on-month (m-o-m) in June to reach total production of 25.93 mb/d. OPEC's assessment of its own production in June was revised upwards by 590 kb/d to 26.03 mb/d. The EIA also increased its assessment by 670 kb/d for total OPEC crude production of 26.13 mb/d in June.

2.3 Stocks

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA continue to display strong alignment on stock figures which are now below the five-year average.

The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 2945 mb, which is close to OPEC's assessment of 2934 mb and EIA's assessment of 2878 mb which is 75.8 mb, 86.6 mb, and 130.4 mb below the five-year average, respectively.
According to the IEA, crude oil inventories drew by 5.3 mb while product stocks built by 26 mb. Other oils, including NGLs and feedstocks drew by 2.6 mb. According to OPEC, crude oil stocks built by 1.1 mb while products built by 7.2 mb.
EIA estimates OECD inventories dropped by 6 mb in May to 2878 mb – 130 mb below the five-year average.
The widest divergence in inventories is between OPEC and the EIA which stands at 67 mb. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 438 mb according to the EIA which are 8 percent below the five-year average for this time of year. OPEC reports US commercial crude oil stocks at about 452 mb and around 30 mb below the five-year average.

2.4 Snapshot (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

3.1 Demand Data

3.2 Supply Data

3.3 Stock Data

IEF-Kayrros Stock Analysis:

JODI Data:

US crude oil closing stock levels in May fell m-o-m by 19.82 mb to 1103.34 mb.

Korean crude oil closing stock levels in May fell m-o-m by 1.11 mb to 119.84 mb.

UK crude oil closing stock levels in May fell m-o-m by 2.89 mb to 23.33 mb.

While its April figures were significantly revised downward, German crude oil closing stock levels in May rose m-o-m by 1.67 mb to 153.89 mb.

Explanatory Note

To inform IEF stakeholders on how perspectives on the oil market of both organisations evolve over time regularly, this monthly summary provides:

An overview of key events and initiatives in the international policy and market context.
Key findings and a snapshot overview of data points gained from comparing basic historical data and short-term forecasts of the IEA Oil Market Report and the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
A comparative analysis of oil inventory data reported by the IEA, OPEC, and EIA, and secondary sources in collaboration with Kayrros.

The International Energy Forum

\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-17","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":130533,"name":"CA July 21","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/ca-july-21.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/ca-july-21.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":4027,"created":"2021-06-30T10:14:00","date":"2021-06-24T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","details":"{\"Main\":\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

Global Oil Demand to Reach Pre-Pandemic Levels in 2022

Global oil demand is set to rise in 2021 by 5.4 mb/d before growing at 3.1 mb/d next year to average 100 mb/d by the end of 2022 according to the International Energy Agency. Brent crude climbed past $70 per barrel party due to post-COVID recovery efforts, but the recovery is expected to be uneven across regions of the world, and the rebound in demand will vary across sectors and products while supply will likely not recover as fast.

OECD Oil Inventories Fall Below the Five-Year Average

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA report oil inventories below the five-year average for the first time in over a year. Increase in vaccinations and a rise in global mobility coupled with easing restrictions are seeing greater stock draws headed into the summer months. Still, inventories remain unusually high, and a surge in COVID-19 cases in several countries along with other oil supply developments create market uncertainty.

17th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting Agrees to Continued Easing of Production Adjustments

On 1 June, the 17th iteration of the meeting reconfirmed the existing commitment of the 10th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting in April 2020, amended in June, September, and December 2020, as well as in January and April 2021 to gradually return 2 mb/d of the adjustments to the market, with the pace being determined according to market conditions. The 18th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting is scheduled for 1 July 2021.

G7 Summit Outlines Climate Commitments

On 11-13 June, the G7 countries outlined further steps to Build Back Better including efforts to mitigate the impacts of climate change. The Carbis Bay G7 communique outlines key climate commitments including delivering climate targets in line with limiting the rise in global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius, achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 at the latest, focusing on transitioning away from coal, and conserving or protecting at least 30 percent of global land and oceans by 2030.

2. Key Points

2.1 Demand

The IEA and EIA demand growth assessments decrease slightly while OPEC growth remains static for the third month in a row.

The IEA reduced its assessment of year-on-year (y-o-y) demand growth by 60 kb/d to 5.36 mb/d. Global oil demand is set to return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022.
OPEC's y-o-y demand growth estimate remains the same as last month at 5.95 mb/d.
EIA's assessment fell by 10 kb/d for a demand growth of 5.41 mb/d in 2021. The IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimates for absolute world demand are now 96.39 mb/d, 96.58 mb/d, and 97.67 mb/d for 2021, respectively.

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA OECD and non-OECD demand growth assessments remain stable.

The IEA's assessment of y-o-y non-OECD demand growth falls by 140 kb/d 2.65 mb/d, while OPEC's increases by 30 kb/d to 3.30 mb/d. The EIA's assessment falls by 80 kb/d for a total non-OECD demand growth of 2.99 mb/d.
The IEA's estimate for OECD demand rose by 70 kb/d to 2.70 mb/d for 2021. OPEC's estimate fell by 40 kb/d to 2.65 mb/d while EIA's assessment sees growth at 2.43 mb/d y-o-y, an increase of 70 kb/d.
IEA and EIA assessments differ by 0.27 mb/d and IEA and OPEC assessments differ by 0.65 mb/d on OECD and non-OECD demand growth, respectively.

2.2 Supply

The EIA non-OPEC supply growth assessment begins to diverge.

The IEA's June assessment for non-OPEC supply increases by 60 kb/d for a total growth of 0.87mb/d while OPEC reports total growth of 0.84 mb/d, an increase of 140 kb/d. The EIA reports a higher overall supply growth of 1.17 mb/d y-o-y, an increase of 210 kb/d from last month's assessment. In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimate non-OPEC supply at 63.93 mb/d, 63.60 mb/d, and 64.68 mb/d, respectively for 2021.
The IEA reports OECD supply growth at 0.24 mb/d while OPEC records OECD growth at 0.39 mb/d, an increase of 50 kb/d and 120 kb/d, respectively. The EIA also records an increase of 170 kb/d for a growth of 0.40 mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA and OPEC, and EIA estimate OECD supply at 28.14 mb/d, 29.55 mb/d, and 31.16 mb/d, respectively for 2021. Divergence on OECD supply growth is the largest between EIA and IEA differing by 160 kb/d.

The EIA reports higher non-OECD supply growth than the IEA and OPEC.

The IEA's supply assessment is the same as last month at 0.25 mb/d. OPEC's forecast reports a growth of 0.32 mb/d, an increase of 10 kb/d from last month. The EIA is substantially more optimistic showing non-OECD supply growth of 0.77 mb/d, an increase of 50 kb/d from last month.
In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA non-OECD supply estimates are 30.71 mb/d and 31.97 mb/d, and 33.52 mb/d, respectively for 2021. Divergence on total non-OECD supply growth is widest between the IEA and EIA that differ by 520 kb/d.

The IEA and EIA report decreases while OPEC reports an increase in OPEC production in May.

The IEA revised its OPEC production estimate upward by 440 kb/d month-on-month (m-o-m) in May to reach total production of 25.43 mb/d. OPEC, meanwhile reported an increase of 360 kb/d m-o-m for total production of 25.46 mb/d in May. The EIA also increased its assessment by 470 kb/d for total OPEC crude production of 25.46 mb/d.

2.3 Stocks

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA continue to report strong alignment on stock figures which are now below the five-year average.

The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 2926 mb, which is close to OPEC's assessment of 2962 mb and EIA's assessment of 2910 mb which is 61.3 mb, 25.2 mb, and 66 mb below the five-year average, respectively.
According to the IEA, crude oil inventories drew by 7.8 mb while product stocks built by about 1.4 mb. Other oils, including NGLs and feedstocks built by 6.8 mb. According to OPEC, crude oil stocks drew by 13.6 mb while products built by 7.2 mb.
EIA estimates OECD inventories dropped by 35 mb in April to 2910 mb – 65 mb below the five-year average.
The widest divergence in inventories is between OPEC and the EIA which stands at 52 mb. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 474 mb according to the EIA which are 4 percent below the five-year average for this time of year. OPEC reports US commercial crude oil stocks at about 479 mb and around 25.2 mb below the five-year average.

2.4 Snapshot (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

3.1 Demand Data

3.2 Supply Data

3.3 Global Stock Data

IEF-Kayrros Stock Analysis:

Global crude oil inventories in onshore storage ended May relatively unchanged from the previous month, according to Kayrros measurements of crude stocks in floating roof tanks and US EIA estimates of US stocks. In total, Kayrros measured a global build of about 4 million barrels for the month, or 130 kb/d.

This leaves global crude stocks about 120 million barrels below their year-earlier level, but still more than 110 million barrels above their level at end May 2019. Over the past 13 months, crude stocks have been slowly drawing down the global overhang built during the first Covid-19 lockdowns, from early February to early May 2020. As the pandemic dramatically slowed the global economy, global crude stocks had surged by nearly 300 million barrels, or more than 4 million bp/d, in just about 70 days. Since then, stocks have retraced about 44 percent their gains, edging down by just 320 kb/d on average over a period of more than a year.

The slow pace of inventory change in May spanned most regions. Chinese crude oil inventories ended May about flat on the month, inching up by just 800,000 barrels (26 kb/d). So did those in the Middle East (+110,000 barrels, 4 kb/d). Small builds in Latin America (+4.68 million bbls, 161 kb/d), Asia Pacific (ex-China) (+2.91 million bbls, 94 kb/d), Sub-Saharan Africa (+2.56 million bbls, 83 kb/d) and Europe (2.31 million bbls, 75 kb/d) were partly offset by draws in North America (led by the US) and the Caribbean.

Compared to year-ago and 2019 levels, however, the regional contrasts couldn’t be more striking. The entire year-on-year overhang is concentrated in China, where stocks built for far longer than in any other country and remain a staggering 45 million bbls above year-ago levels, and 123 million bbls above 2019 levels. In contrast, stocks in the rest of the world are now down year-on-year and in some areas have even fallen below May 2019 levels. The largest yearly draws are in the US (-53 million bbls), Asia Pacific (-44 million bbs), and MENA ( 30 million bbls), followed by Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean.

In the world's largest oil markets, Other Asia, Europe and the US, stocks at end May were now significantly below their levels at the same time of year in 2019.

JODI Data:

US crude oil closing stock levels in April fell m-o-m by 21.39 mb to 1118.28 mb.

Korean crude oil closing stock levels in April rose m-o-m by 2.22 mb to 120.96 mb.

UK crude oil closing stock levels in April fell m-o-m by 288 kb to 26.22 mb.

German crude oil closing stock levels in April fell m-o-m by 118 kb to 154.27 mb.

Explanatory Note

To inform IEF stakeholders on how perspectives on the oil market of both organisations evolve over time regularly, this monthly summary provides:

An overview of key events and initiatives in the international policy and market context.
Key findings and a snapshot overview of data points gained from comparing basic historical data and short-term forecasts of the IEA Oil Market Report and the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
A comparative analysis of oil inventory data reported by the IEA, OPEC, and EIA, and secondary sources in collaboration with Kayrros.

The International Energy Forum

\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-16","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":129599,"name":"CA June 21","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/ca-june-21.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/ca-june-21.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":3976,"created":"2021-05-20T09:03:00","date":"2021-05-20T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","details":"{\"Main\":\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

US Leaders' Summit on Climate Announces Establishment of Net-Zero Producers Forum

Canada, Norway, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United States announced on 23-24 April that they will come together to form a cooperative forum that will develop pragmatic net-zero emission strategies. These will focus on methane and carbon dioxide abatement, including by advancing integrated circular carbon economy technologies development and deployment of clean-energy and carbon capture and storage, diversification from reliance on hydrocarbon revenues, and other measures in line with each country's national circumstances. The five countries collectively represent 40 percent of global oil and gas production.

Cyberattack shuts down largest US pipeline for refined products

U.S. fuel pipeline operator Colonial Pipeline shut its entire network on 7th May due to a cyberattack caused by ransomware – a type of malware that is designed to lock down systems by encrypting data and demanding payment to regain access. The attack underscores the vulnerability of energy infrastructure to cyberattacks, and the need for resiliency against such operations. Colonial pipeline transports 2.5 mb/d of gasoline, and other fuels through 5,500 miles (8,850 km) of pipelines linking refiners on the Gulf Coast to the eastern and southern United States.

OECD oil inventories returning to normal levels, but volatility persists

The IEA and EIA report oil inventories above the five-year average by about 2 mb and 7 mb, respectively while OPEC diverges and reports oil stocks around 38 mb above the latest five-year average. The rise of vaccinations and global mobility will see demand rise according to the IEA, but continued COVID outbreaks in India and renewed restrictions in Japan are reason for caution as uncertainty persists.

16th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting agrees to continue market rebalancing

OPEC and non-OPEC Ministers agreed to abide by the planned output increase decided at its most recent meeting. The 15th meeting agreed to boost production by 350 kb/d in May, add the same volume again in June, and increase production by another 440 kb/d barrels in July. Saudi Arabia will begin rolling back its voluntary 1 mb/d adjustment, adding 250 kb/d in May, 350 kb/d in June, and 400 kb/d in July.

2. Key Points

2.1 Demand

The IEA and EIA demand growth assessments decrease while OPEC growth remains static.

The IEA reduced its assessment of year-on-year (y-o-y) demand growth by 270 kb/d to 5.42 mb/d due to weaker than expected demand in 1Q21 and a lower demand outlook for India.
OPEC's y-o-y demand growth estimate remains the same as last month at 5.95 mb/d.
EIA's assessment fell by 80 kb/d for a demand growth of 5.42 mb/d in 2021. The IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimates for absolute world demand are now 96.43 mb/d, 96.46 mb/d, and 97.69 mb/d for 2021, respectively.

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA OECD and non-OECD demand growth assessments remain largely stable.

The IEA's assessment of y-o-y non-OECD demand growth falls by 160 kb/d 2.79 mb/d, while OPEC's drops by 40 kb/d to 3.27 mb/d. The EIA's assessment falls by 20 kb/d for a total non-OECD demand growth of 3.07 mb/d.
The IEA's estimate for OECD demand fell by 110 kb/d to 2.63 mb/d for 2021. OPEC's estimate rose by 50 kb/d to 2.69 mb/d while EIA's assessment sees growth at 2.36 mb/d y-o-y, a decrease of 60 kb/d.
OPEC and EIA assessments differ by 0.33 mb/d and OPEC and IEA assessments differ by 0.48 mb/d on OECD and non-OECD demand growth, respectively.

2.2 Supply

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA non-OPEC supply growth assessments continue to converge.

The IEA's May assessment for non-OPEC supply increases by 50 kb/d for a total growth of 0.81 mb/d while OPEC reports total growth of 0.70 mb/d, a decrease of 230 kb/d. The EIA reports a higher overall supply growth of 0.96 mb/d y-o-y, a decrease of 220 kb/d from last month's assessment. In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimate non-OPEC supply at 63.87 mb/d, 63.60 mb/d, and 64.50 mb/d, respectively for 2021.
The IEA reports OECD supply growth at 0.19 mb/d while OPEC records OECD growth at 0.27 mb/d, a decrease of 90 kb/d and 340 kb/d, respectively. The EIA also records a decrease of 30 kb/d for a growth of 0.23 mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA and OPEC, and EIA estimate OECD supply at 28.09 mb/d, 29.43 mb/d, and 30.99 mb/d, respectively for 2021. Divergence on OECD supply growth is the largest between OPEC and IEA differing by 80 kb/d.

The EIA reports higher non-OECD supply growth than the IEA and OPEC.

The IEA's supply assessment reaches total supply growth of 0.25 mb/d, an increase of 10 kb/d from last month. OPEC's forecast reports a growth of 0.31 mb/d, an increase of 110 kb/d from last month. The EIA is substantially more optimistic showing non-OECD supply growth of 0.72 mb/d, a decrease of 200 kb/d from last month.
In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA non-OECD supply estimates are 30.71 mb/d and 31.97 mb/d, and 33.50 mb/d, respectively for 2021. Divergence on total non-OECD supply growth is widest between the IEA and EIA that differ by 470 kb/d.

The IEA and EIA report decreases while OPEC reports an increase in OPEC production in April.

The IEA revised its OPEC production estimate downward by 70 kb/d month-on-month (m-o-m) in April to reach total production of 25.04 mb/d. OPEC, meanwhile reported an increase of 30 kb/d m-o-m for total production of 25.08 mb/d in April. The EIA decreased its assessment by 30 kb/d for total OPEC crude production of 25.00 mb/d.

2.3 Stocks

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA continue to report strong alignment on stock figures.

The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 2951 mb, which is close to OPEC's assessment of 2987 mb and EIA's assessment of 2923 mb, which is 1.7 mb, 37.8 mb, and 7 mb above the five-year average, respectively.
According to the IEA, crude oil inventories built by 6.1 mb while product stocks fell by about 31 mb. Other oils, including NGLs and feedstocks built by 0.2 mb. According to OPEC, crude oil stocks built by around 7 mb while products built by 3.3 mb.
EIA estimates OECD inventories dropped by 30 mb in March to 2923 mb – 7 mb above the five-year average.
The widest divergence in inventories is between OPEC and the EIA which stands at 64 mb. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 485 mb according to the EIA which are 2 percent below the five-year average for this time of year. OPEC reports US commercial crude oil stocks at about 485 mb and around 37.8 mb above the five-year average.

2.4 Snapshot (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

3.1 Demand Data

Figure 1

3.2 Supply Data

Figure 2

3.3 Stock Data

Figure 3

Figure 4

JODI Data:

Figure 5 - US Crude Oil Closing Stocks

US crude oil closing stock levels rose by 5.66 mb m-o-m in March to 1136.59 mb.

Figure 6 - Korea Crude Oil Closing Stocks

Korean crude oil closing stock levels fell by 5.44 mb m-o-m in March to 118.75 mb.

Figure 7 - UK Crude Oil Closing Stocks

UK crude oil closing stock levels in March rose m-o-m by 766 kb to 24.94 mb.

Figure 8 - Germany Crude Oil Closing Stocks

German crude oil closing stock levels in March rose m-o-m by 3.56 mb to 154.88 mb.

Explanatory Note

To inform IEF stakeholders on how perspectives on the oil market of both organisations evolve over time regularly, this monthly summary provides:

An overview of key events and initiatives in the international policy and market context.
Key findings and a snapshot overview of data points gained from comparing basic historical data and short-term forecasts of the IEA Oil Market Report and the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
A comparative analysis of oil inventory data reported by JODI, the IEA, OPEC, and the US EIA.

The International Energy Forum

\"}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-14","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":128243,"name":"CA May 2021","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/ca-may-2021.png","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/ca-may-2021.png","fileExt":"png","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":3954,"created":"2021-04-29T11:59:00","date":"2021-04-29T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

IMF sees strongest economic growth in more than 40 years

The International Monetary Fund lifted its global economic growth forecast for 2021 to 6 percent – the strongest annual growth in more than four decades. IMF's chief economist said, \\\"even with a high uncertainty about the path of the pandemic, a way out of this health and economic crisis is increasingly visible.\\\" The rebound comes after a 3.3 percent contraction in 2020.

Suez Canal Blockage Highlights Dredging Industry Vulnerability

A container ship blocking the Suez Canal did not have a significant impact on oil and gas markets due to swift action. However, dredged shipping channels are critical infrastructure for global energy and wider trade that are more vulnerable now than ever by suspension of public works during the pandemic.

Gulf of Mexico crude oil production will increase with new projects in 2021 and 2022

EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production in the US Federal Gulf of Mexico (GOM) to increase in the next two years. By the end of 2022, 13 new projects could account for about 12 percent of total GOM crude oil production, or about 200 kb/d. The GOM accounts for 15–16 percent of US crude oil production.

15th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting agrees to gradual production increase

OPEC and non-OPEC Ministers agreed to adjust production of world oil supplies from May to July on 1 April 2021. The group will boost production by 350 kb/d in May, add the same volume again in June and increase by 440 kb/d barrels in July. Saudi Arabia will begin rolling back its voluntary 1 mb/d adjustment, adding 250 kb/d in May, 350 kb/d in June, and 400 kb/d in July.

2. Key Points

2.1 Demand

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA demand growth assessments increase.

The IEA increased its assessment by 230 kb/d for a year-on-year (y-o-y) demand growth of 5.69 mb/d driven by the continued vaccine rollout, demand recovery in the US, and strong consumption in China and Japan.
OPEC's forecasts a y-o-y demand growth of 5.95 mb/d, an increase of 60 kb/d from last month.
EIA's assessment increased by 180 kb/d for a demand growth of 5.50 mb/d in 2021. The IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimates for absolute world demand are now 96.69 mb/d, 96.46 mb/d, and 97.67 mb/d for 2021, respectively.

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA align on OECD and non-OECD demand growth.

The IEA's non-OECD demand assessment increases by 160 kb/d to a demand growth of 2.95 mb/d, while OPEC growth remains at 3.31 mb/d. The EIA's assessment increases by 230 kb/d for non-OECD demand growth of 3.09 mb/d y-o-y.
The IEA's estimate for OECD demand increased by 70 kb/d for demand growth at 2.74 mb/d for 2021. OPEC's estimate also increased by 70 kb/d for a demand growth at 2.64 mb/d while EIA's assessment sees growth at 2.42 mb/d y-o-y, a decrease of 40 kb/d.
The IEA and EIA assessments differ by 0.32 mb/d and EIA and OPEC assessments differ by 0.36 mb/d on OECD and non-OECD demand growth, respectively.

2.2 Supply

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA non-OPEC supply growth assessments converge.

The IEA's April assessment for non-OPEC supply decreases by 80 kb/d for a total growth of 0.76 mb/d while OPEC reports total growth of 0.93 mb/d, a decrease of 20 kb/d. The EIA reports a higher overall supply growth of 1.18 mb/d y-o-y, a decrease of 380 kb/d from last month's assessment. In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimate non-OPEC supply at 63.83 mb/d, 63.83 mb/d, and 64.85 mb/d, respectively for 2021.
The IEA reports OECD supply growth at 0.28 mb/d while OPEC records OECD growth at 0.61 mb/d, a decrease and increase of 30 kb/d and 20 kb/d, respectively. The EIA also records a growth of 0.26 mb/d, a decrease of 360 kb/d. In absolute values, the IEA and OPEC, and EIA estimate OECD supply at 28.19 mb/d, 29.77 mb/d, and 31.12 mb/d, respectively for 2021. Divergence on OECD supply growth is the largest between OPEC and EIA differing by 350 kb/d.

The EIA reports higher non-OECD supply growth than the IEA and OPEC.

The IEA's supply assessment reaches total supply growth of 0.15 mb/d, a decrease of 30 kb/d from last month. OPEC's forecast reports a growth of 0.20 mb/d, a decrease of 30 kb/d from last month. The EIA is substantially more optimistic showing non-OECD supply growth of 0.92 mb/d, a decrease of 20 kb/d from last month. In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA non-OECD supply estimates are 30.61 mb/d and 31.86 mb/d, and 33.73 mb/d, respectively for 2021. Divergence on total non-OECD supply growth is widest between the IEA and EIA that differ by 770 kb/d.

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA all report decreases in OPEC production in March.

The IEA revised its OPEC production estimate upward by 970 kb/d month-on-month (m-o-m) in March to reach total production of 25.05 mb/d. OPEC also reported an increase by 850 kb/d m-o-m for total production of 25.04 mb/d in March. The EIA increased its assessment by 610 kb/d for total OPEC crude production of 25.02 mb/d.

2.3 Stocks

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA continue to report strong alignment on stock figures.

The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 2977 mb, which is close to OPEC's assessment of 2978 mb and EIA's assessment of 2951 mb, or for OECD stock that is 28.3 mb, 29 mb, and 14.2 mb above the five-year average, respectively.
According to the IEA, crude oil inventories built by 7.4 mb while product stocks fell by about 67 mb. Other oils, including NGLs and feedstocks built by 3.6 mb. According to OPEC, crude oil stocks built by around 6 mb while products fell by 51 mb.
EIA estimates OECD inventories dropped by 67 mb in February to 2951 mb – 14.2 mb above the five-year average.
The widest divergence between OPEC, and the EIA stands at 27 mb. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 492 mb according to the EIA which are 1 percent above the five-year average for this time of year. OPEC reports US commercial crude oil stocks at about 485 mb and around 15 mb above the five-year average.

2.4 Snapshot (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

3.1 Demand Data

Figure 1

3.2 Supply Data

Figure 2

3.3 Stock Data

Figure 3

Figure 4

JODI Data:

Figure 5 - US Crude Oil Closing Stocks

US crude oil closing stock levels rose by 14.35 mb m-o-m in February to 1128.29 mb.

Figure 6 - Korea Crude Oil Closing Stocks

Korean crude oil closing stock levels rose by 744 kb m-o-m in February to 124.18 mb.

Figure 7 - UK Crude Oil Closing Stocks

UK crude oil closing stock levels in February fell m-o-m again by 1.81 mb to 25.65 mb – the lowest since monitoring began in 2002.

Figure 8 - Germany Crude Oil Closing Stocks

German crude oil closing stock levels in February fell m-o-m by 1.98 kb to 153.44 mb.

While both the IEA and OPEC report closely aligned data on OECD stocks due to a continuous and reliable data stream and data harmonisation efforts, comprehensive data on stock developments for non-OECD countries is still work in progress as large differences in assessments show.

3.3.1 Global Stock Analysis

IEA, JODI, and available weekly inventory data for February imply crude, NGL, and product stocks drew by ~62.5 mb

JODI non-OECD data for February shows inventories increased by 1.4 mb after a 7.4 mb draw in crude was largely offset by an 8.1 mb build in NGL + Other. Crude stocks drew in Brazil (4.2 mb), Saudi Arabia (2.6 mb) and Chinese Taipei (3.4 mb).
Floating crude inventories fell by 10.0 mb in February and by 2.0 mb in March. They are now 122.2 mb below their June peak.
Rapidan Energy Group's preliminary global inventory estimate for March shows slight draws with visible inventories falling by 5.4 mb. Early data shows OECD commercial increased by 2.1 after a 17.0 mb build in crude was nearly offset by a 15.3 mb draw in products. If the numbers stand, the slight build for March would break seven consecutive months of OECD total stock draws.
Stock data shows global inventories drew by ~31.5 mb in 1Q21, led by a 51.8 mb drop in OECD product stocks, but partially offset by a 10.4 mb build in the non-OECD data. Notably, our estimation for the quarter so far (which includes preliminary data for both February and March) came in below the stock levels implied by IEA, EIA, and OPEC's balances.

* Non-OECD data is the aggregate of country-level data through JODI. Not all non-OECD countries report inventory data and the countries in the aggregate may vary monthly depending on regularity of individual country reporting.

Table 1

Figure 9

Figure 10

Explanatory Note

To inform IEF stakeholders on how perspectives on the oil market of both organisations evolve over time regularly, this monthly summary provides:

An overview of key events and initiatives in the international policy and market context.
Key findings and a snapshot overview of data points gained from comparing basic historical data and short-term forecasts of the IEA Oil Market Report and the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
A comparative analysis of oil inventory data reported by JODI, the IEA, OPEC, and the US EIA, and secondary sources in collaboration with the Rapidan Energy Group.

The International Energy Forum

\"]}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-13","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":127402,"name":"April Web","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/april-web.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/april-web.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":3928,"created":"2021-04-01T10:59:00","date":"2021-03-31T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

Attacks on Energy Infrastructure Threaten Energy Supplies and Global Economic Stability

The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum (IEF) Joseph McMonigle condemned the attempted attacks on oil facilities at the Ras Tanura Port and surrounding areas in Saudi Arabia on 7 March and the drone attack on refinery installations in Riyadh on 20 March. Attacks threaten global energy supplies and world economic stability when the economy is just beginning to recover from the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic. The attacks briefly pushed oil prices above $70 a barrel for the first time since January 2020.

IEA Forecasts Return of Gasoline Demand to Pre-Pandemic Levels in Doubt

Gasoline is not likely to return to pre-pandemic levels, according to the latest IEA medium-term oil forecast through 2026. An accelerating global shift toward electric vehicles, along with increasing fuel efficiency among gasoline-powered fleets, may outweigh gasoline demand growth from developing countries.

US crude oil production sees largest year-on-year decline on record

U.S. crude oil production averaged 11.3 mb/d in 2020, down 935,000 kb/d (8 percent) from the record annual average high of 12.2 mb/d in 2019. The 2020 decrease in production was the largest annual decline in the U.S. Energy Information Administration's records. The production decline resulted from reduced drilling activity related to low oil prices in 2020 along with the sudden drop in petroleum demand due to COVID-19.

14th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting Keeps Production Adjustments in Place

OPEC and non-OPEC Ministers decided to maintain supply adjustments on 4 March while Saudi Arabia extended the additional voluntary adjustments of 1 mb/d for the month of April 2021. Ministers decided that only Russia and Kazakhstan will be allowed to increase production due to seasonal consumption patterns.

2. Key Points

2.1 Demand

IEA, OPEC, and EIA demand growth assessments remain steady.

The IEA increased its assessment by 30 kb/d for a year-on-year (y-o-y) demand growth of 5.46 mb/d due to colder than expected weather at the start of the year, positive economic outlook, and the continued rollout of vaccines.
OPEC's forecasts a y-o-y demand growth of 5.89 mb/d, an increase of 100 kb/d from last month.
EIA's assessment decreased by 60 kb/d for a demand growth of 5.32 mb/d in 2021. The IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimates for absolute world demand are now 96.49 mb/d 96.27 mb/d, and 97.50 mb/d for 2021, respectively.

IEA, OPEC, and EIA align on OECD and non-OECD demand growth.

The IEA's non-OECD demand assessment increases by 10 kb/d to a demand growth of 2.79 mb/d, while OPEC decreases its assessment by 10 kb/d for a growth of 3.31 mb/d. The EIA's assessment decreases by 100 kb/d for non-OECD demand growth of 2.86 mb/d y-o-y.
The IEA's estimate for OECD demand increased by 20 kb/d for demand growth at 2.67 mb/d for 2021. OPEC's estimate increased by 100 kb/d for a demand growth at 2.57 mb/d while EIA's assessment sees growth at 2.46 mb/d y-o-y, an increase of 40 kb/d.
The IEA and EIA assessments differ by 0.21 mb/d and IEA and OPEC assessments differ by 0.52 mb/d on OECD and non-OECD demand growth, respectively.

2.2 Supply

IEA, OPEC, and EIA show differences in non-OPEC supply growth.

The IEA's March assessment for non-OPEC supply decreases by 100 kb/d for a total growth of 0.84 mb/d while OPEC reports total growth of 0.95 mb/d, an increase of 280 kb/d. The EIA reports a higher overall supply growth of 1.56 mb/d y-o-y, an increase of 160 kb/d from last month’s assessment. In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimate non-OPEC supply at 63.90 mb/d, 63.80 mb/d, and 65.18 mb/d, respectively for 2021.
The IEA reports OECD supply growth at 0.31 mb/d while OPEC records OECD growth at 0.59 mb/d, a decrease and increase of 100 kb/d and 50 kb/d, respectively. The EIA also records a growth of 0.62 mb/d, an increase of 80 kb/d. In absolute values, the IEA and OPEC, and EIA estimate OECD supply at 28.20 mb/d, 29.73 mb/d, and 31.38 mb/d, respectively for 2021. Divergence on OECD supply growth is the largest between the IEA and EIA differing by 310 kb/d.

EIA reports higher non-OECD supply growth than the IEA and OPEC.

The IEA's supply assessment reaches total supply growth of 0.18 mb/d, an increase of 30 kb/d from last month. OPEC’s forecast reports a growth of 0.23 mb/d, an increase of 230 kb/d from last month. The EIA is substantially more optimistic showing non-OECD supply growth of 0.94 mb/d, an increase of 80 kb/d from last month. In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA non-OECD supply estimates are 30.64 mb/d and 31.88 mb/d, and 33.80 mb/d, respectively for 2021. Divergence on total non-OECD supply growth is again widest between the IEA and EIA that differ by 760 kb/d.

IEA, OPEC, and EIA all report decreases in OPEC production in February.

The IEA revised its OPEC production estimate downward by 760 kb/d month-on-month (m-o-m) in February to reach total production of 24.75 mb/d. OPEC also reported a decrease by 650 kb/d m-o-m for total production of 24.85 mb/d in February. The EIA, meanwhile, decreased its assessment by 460 kb/d for total OPEC crude production of 24.86 mb/d in February.

2.3 Stocks

IEA, OPEC, and EIA continue to report strong alignment on stock figures. The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 3023 mb, which is close to OPEC’s assessment of 3052 mb and EIA’s assessment of 3016 mb, or for OECD stock that is 63.2 mb, 92.2 mb, and 69.2 mb above the five-year average, respectively. The widest divergence between OPEC, and the EIA stands at 36 mb. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 503 mb according to the EIA which are 6 percent above the five-year average for this time of year. OPEC reports US commercial crude oil stocks at about 485 mb and around 15 mb above the five-year average.

2.4 Snapshot (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

3.1 Demand Data

Figure 1
IEA, OPEC, and EIA demand growth remains steady
OPEC reports higher demand growth than IEA and EIA

Absolute Demand

The IEA's estimate for global demand growth increased slightly to 5.46 mb/d in March for an absolute demand of 96.49 mb/d in 2021 due to positive economic sentiment and the faster rollout of vaccines.
OPEC's global demand assessment increases by 100 kb/d for a total y-o-y increase of 5.89 mb/d in 2021 with absolute demand at 96.27 mb/d.
The EIA revised its assessment down by 60 kb/d with a demand growth of 5.32 mb/d y-o-y for an absolute demand of 97.50 mb/d.

OECD Demand

The IEA increases its assessment by 20 kb/d for OECD oil demand growth of 2.67 mb/d with the Americas comprising most of the increase at 1.64 mb/d. The IEA anticipates total OECD consumption for 2021 at 44.76 mb/d.
OPEC's demand projection for the OECD region increased by 100 kb/d for y-o-y growth of 2.57 mb/d with the Americas comprising most of the increase at 1.69 mb/d for absolute demand at 44.64 mb/d.
The EIA's assessment for OECD demand growth increases by 40 kb/d to 2.46 mb/d with the Americas comprising most of the increase at 1.68 mb/d for an absolute demand at 44.40 mb/d.

Non-OECD Demand

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA anticipate increases in non-OECD demand growth for this year of 2.79, mb/d, 3.31 mb/d, and 2.86 mb/d, respectively. Divergence is largest between the IEA and OPEC that differ by 520 kb/d. Demand is driven largely by Asia, Middle East, and the Americas. Total non-OECD demand forecasts average 51.73 mb/d, 51.63 mb/d, and 53.10 mb/d, respectively. OPEC and the EIA estimates diverge most by 1.47 mb/d.

China Demand

According to the IEA, demand in 2021 will be 14.78 mb/d, an increase of 850 kb/d from last year.
According to OPEC demand in 2021 will be 14.20 mb/d, an increase of 1.11 mb/d from last year.
Demand in 2021 will be 15.15 mb/d, an increase of 820 kb/d from last year according to the EIA.
The EIA and OPEC demand growth estimates diverge most with 290 kb/d between them.

India Demand

According to the IEA, Indian demand is expected to increase by 440 kb/d in 2021 to reach a total demand of 4.98 mb/d.
Demand will increase by 600 kb/d with total demand reaching 4.99 mb/d in 2021, according to OPEC.
The EIA forecasts total demand at 4.89 mb/d in 2021, an increase of 520 kb/d from last year.
The IEA and OPEC demand growth estimates diverge most differing by 160 kb/d.

3.2 Supply Data

Figure 2
IEA, OPEC, and EIA supply growth estimates vary strongly
EIA differs most on non-OPEC and non-OECD supply growth

Non-OPEC Supply

The IEA forecasts non-OPEC supply at 63.90 mb/d, adjusting supply growth by 0.84 mb/d for 2021; a decrease of 100 kb/d from last month’s report. Most of the growth comes from Canada (0.38 mb/d), Norway (0.16 mb/d), Brazil (0.16 mb/d), and Russia (0.11 mb/d).
OPEC's March assessment of total non-OPEC supply for 2021 stands at 63.80 mb/d for a total growth of 0.95 mb/d, an increase of 280 kb/d from the February report. Most of the growth comes from Canada (0.30 mb/d), US (0.16 mb/d), Norway (0.15 mb/d), and Brazil (0.14 mb/d).
EIA's assessment shows non-OPEC supply grows by 1.56 mb/d reaching 65.18 mb/d this year. Most of the growth comes from Canada (0.43 mb/d), Brazil (0.41 mb/d), US (0.21 mb/d), and Norway (0.18 mb/d).
The largest divergence in non-OPEC supply growth estimates is between the IEA and EIA that differ by 720 kb/d.

OECD Supply

The IEA forecasts OECD supplies to increase by 0.31 mb/d for 2021 while OPEC and the EIA see growth at 0.59 mb/d and 0.62 mb/d with total supply reaching 28.20 mb/d, 29.73 mb/d, and 31.38 mb/d, respectively in 2021. Divergence in growth is largest between the IEA and EIA that differ by 310 kb/d with EIA showing twice as much growth as the IEA forecasts.
The IEA's data shows that OECD Americas oil supply increases by 180 kb/d to reach 24.00 mb/d in total. OPEC reports an increase of 450 kb/d with total oil supply reaching 25.17 mb/d in 2021. The EIA reports an increase of 600 kb/d for a total supply of 26.43 mb/d.
The IEA's assessment for OECD Europe supply records an increase by 100 kb/d for total production of 3.64 mb/d led primarily by Norway. OPEC's assessment for total OECD Europe production in 2021 is 4.03 mb/d with a growth of 140 kb/d. The EIA reports an increase of 110 kb/d for a total supply of 4.39 mb/d.

OPEC Supply

The IEA reports that OPEC production decreased by 760 kb/d m-o-m in February to reach total production of 24.75 mb/d. Output increased in Nigeria, Iraq, Venezuela and decreased in Saudi Arabia and Iran.
OPEC reports that total OPEC-13 crude oil production averaged 24.85 mb/d in February according to secondary sources which is a decrease of 647 kb/d m-o-m. Crude oil output increased primarily in Nigeria, Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, and Libya while production decreased primarily in Saudi Arabia and Angola.
The EIA reports OPEC production decreased by 460 kb/d m-o-m in February for a total production of 24.86 mb/d.

3.3 Stock Data

IEA data shows OECD commercial inventories fell by 14.2 mb m-o-m in January to 3023 mb and are 63.2 mb above the five-year average. Crude oil inventories dropped by 23.7 mb while product stocks fell by only 0.3 mb. Other oils, including NGLs and feedstocks drew by 9.3 mb.
According to OPEC, preliminary data for December showed that total OECD commercial oil inventories fell by 11.3 mb m-o-m to 3052 mb and are now 92.2 mb above the latest five-year average. OPEC estimates a crude draw of 17.7 mb while product stocks built by 6.4 mb.
EIA estimates OECD inventories dropped by 16.8 mb in January to 3016 mb – 69.2 mb above the five-year average.

JODI Data:

US crude oil closing stock levels fell by 12.52 mb m-o-m in January to a yearly low of 1110.83 mb.
Korean crude oil closing stock levels fell by 1.9 kb m-o-m in January to 123.43 mb.
German crude oil closing stock levels in January fell m-o-m by 1.48 kb to 152.72 mb.
UK crude oil closing stock levels in January fell m-o-m by 4.60 mb to 2.37 mb – the lowest level since monitoring began in January 2002.

Figure 3
IEA, OPEC, and EIA data show alignment on OECD stock builds

Figure 4
OPEC reports higher five-year average than IEA and EIA
OECD stocks remain well above five-year average

3.3.1 Global Stock Analysis

IEA, JODI, and available weekly inventory data for January imply crude, NGL, and product stocks built by ~16.3 mb

JODI non-OECD data for January shows inventories increased by 11.0 mb led by a 6.8 mb build in products. Products built in India (8.6 mb), Saudi Arabia (2.5 mb), and Thailand (2.2 mb). Crude stocks built in Nigeria (8.6 mb) and Chinese Taipei (2.9 mb).
Floating crude inventories increased by 18.8 mb in January but fell by 6.5 mb in February. They are now 127.2 mb below their June peak.
Rapidan Energy Group's preliminary global inventory estimate for February returned to draws with visible inventories tumbling by 62.1 mb. Early data shows OECD commercial inventories dropped for a seventh consecutive month in February, falling by 51.9 mb with a 50.7 mb m/m drop in OECD commercial products.
February's large m/m drop in OECD products (50.7 mb) was driven by strong draws in the US. Distillate (19.8 mb), propane and propylene (14.8 mb), and gasoline (8.7 mb) drove the declines in the US.
Stock data shows global inventories drew by ~302.3 mb in 2H20, led by a 175.3 mb drop in total OECD stocks and a 68.1 mb drop in floating crude. We estimate that a little above 70% of 1H20 historic builds were wiped in the second half of the year.

Table 1

Figure 5

Figure 6

Explanatory Note

To inform IEF stakeholders on how perspectives on the oil market of both organisations evolve over time regularly, this monthly summary provides:

An overview of key events and initiatives in the international policy and market context.
Key findings and a snapshot overview of data points gained from comparing basic historical data and short-term forecasts of the IEA Oil Market Report and the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
A comparative analysis of oil inventory data reported by JODI, the IEA, OPEC, and the US EIA, and secondary sources in collaboration with the Rapidan Energy Group.

The International Energy Forum

\"]}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-12","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":126348,"name":"March 2021 Square","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/march-2021/march-2021-square.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/march-2021/march-2021-square.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":3906,"created":"2021-02-25T07:52:00","date":"2021-02-25T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

Cold Weather and Soaring Electricity Demand in the US Cause Blackouts and Oil Production Shortages

Power outages in the US, with Texas most affected, impacted millions of households due to winter temperatures at 30-year lows. Power demand reached an all-time high as Arctic air pushed south to the Gulf of Mexico. The polar vortex forced power plants to purchase electricity on the spot market leading to a price spike and power outages. US oil production was also down by about 5 mb/d due to lost power and extreme weather conditions.

Oil Prices Rise to Pre-Pandemic Levels

Positive market sentiment caused by the global vaccine rollout, increasing demand, particularly in Asia, and production disruptions due to cold weather in the US pushed Brent above $60 per barrel. Brent crude futures contracts have increased by almost 60 percent since November while WTI prices rose to one-year highs. However, continued lockdowns in certain parts of the world, mobility restrictions, and differences in vaccine distribution makes oil market rebalancing a gradual and uncertain process.

The IEF hosts the 11th IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Energy Market Outlooks

The 11th iteration of the Symposium was livestreamed and examined the impact of the COVID-10 pandemic on global energy markets and the outlook for global energy security and market stability.
- HRH Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia acknowledged the progress made in bringing stability to oil markets, but warned against complacency, emphasised caution, and stressed the importance of adaptation and resilience in an unpredictable environment.
- HE Dharmendra Pradhan, Indian Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas, reiterated that in the collective interests of both producing and consuming countries oil prices should be reasonable and responsible.
- The Director-General of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), HE Francesco La Camera, and Secretary General of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), HE Yury Sentyurin were also invited to speak.

26th Meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) Optimistic for Recovery in 2021

The 26th JMMC on 3 February 2021 emphasised the importance of accelerating market rebalancing without delay. The Committee also observed that stocks in OECD countries fell for the fifth consecutive month. It was also noted that while economic prospects and oil demand growth would remain uncertain in the coming months, the gradual rollout of vaccines around the world is a positive factor for oil demand and global economic recovery.

2. Key Points

2.1 Demand

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA show alignment on demand growth in 2021.

The IEA decreased its assessment by 20 kb/d for a year-on-year (y-o-y) demand growth of 5.43 mb/d due to a positive economic outlook and gradual drawdown of surplus crude inventories.
OPEC’s forecasts a y-o-y demand growth of 5.79 mb/d, a decrease of 110 kb/d from last month.
EIA’s assessment decreases by 180 kb/d for a demand growth of 5.38 mb/d in 2021. The IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimates for absolute world demand are now 96.44 mb/d 96.05 mb/d, and 97.67 mb/d for 2021, respectively.

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA align on OECD and non-OECD demand growth.

The IEA’s non-OECD demand assessment increases by 510 kb/d to a demand growth of 2.78 mb/d, while OPEC increases its assessment by 10 kb/d for a growth of 3.32 mb/d. The EIA’s assessment decreases by 130 kb/d for non-OECD demand growth of 2.96 mb/d y-o-y.
The IEA’s estimate for OECD demand decreased by 90 kb/d for demand growth at 2.65 mb/d for 2021. OPEC’s estimate decreased by 120 kb/d for a demand growth at 2.47 mb/d while EIA’s assessment sees growth at 2.42 mb/d y-o-y, a decrease of 50 kb/d.
IEA, OPEC, and EIA assessments differ by 230 kb/d and 540 kb/d on OECD and non-OECD demand growth, respectively.

2.2 Supply

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA show differences in non-OPEC supply growth.

The IEA's February assessment for non-OPEC supply increases by 360 kb/d for a total growth of 0.94 mb/d while OPEC reports total growth of 0.67 mb/d, a decrease of 180 kb/d. The EIA reports a higher overall supply growth of 1.40 mb/d y-o-y, an increase of 180 kb/d from last month’s assessment. In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimate non-OPEC supply at 64.00 mb/d, 63.33 mb/d, and 65.03 mb/d, respectively for 2021.
The IEA reports OECD supply growth at 410 bb/d while OPEC records OECD growth at 540 kb/d, an increase and decrease of 290 kb/d and 180 kb/d, respectively. The EIA also records a growth of 540 kb/d, an increase of 50 kb/d. In absolute values, the IEA and OPEC, and EIA estimate OECD supply at 28.28 mb/d, 29.68 mb/d, and 31.26 mb/d, respectively for 2021 and diverging by 2.98 mb/d.

Non-OECD supply growth varies amongst the IEA, OPEC, and EIA.

The IEA's supply assessment reaches total supply growth of 150 kb/d, an increase of 70 kb/d while OPEC’s forecast reports no growth, a slight increase of 10 kb/d. The EIA is more optimistic with a growth of 860 kb/d, an increase of 120 kb/d from last month. In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA non-OECD supply estimates are 30.63 mb/d and 31.45 mb/d, and 33.77 mb/d, respectively for 2021 diverging by 3.14 mb/d.

The IEA, OPEC report increases in OPEC production in January while EIA posts a small decrease.

The IEA revised its OPEC production by 240 kb/d month-on-month (m-o-m) in January to reach total production of 25.45 mb/d. OPEC also reported an increase by 180 kb/d m-o-m for total production of 25.50 mb/d in January. The EIA meanwhile decreased its assessment by 10 kb/d \\for total OPEC crude production of 25.26 mb/d in January.

2.3 Stocks

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA continue to report strong alignment on stock figures. . The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 3063 mb, which is close to OPEC’s assessment of 3068 mb and EIA’s assessment of 3045 mb, or for OECD stock that is 138.3 mb, 143.4 mb, and 135 mb above the five-year average, respectively. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 462 mb according to the EIA which are at the five-year average for this time of year. OPEC reports US commercial crude oil stocks at about 476 mb and around 17 mb above the five-year average.

2.4 Snapshot (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

3.1 Demand Data

Figure 1
IEA, OPEC, and EIA show lesser overall demand growth
OPEC reports more non-OECD demand growth than IEA and EIA

Absolute Demand

The IEA’s estimate for global demand growth decreased slightly by to 5.43 mb/d in February for an absolute demand of 96.44 mb/d in 2021 due to positive economic sentiment and draw-down in inventory levels.
As the traditional driver of demand growth, demand in non-OECD Asia reports growth of 1.84 mb/d in 2021, an increase of 120 kb/d from January’s assessment.
OPEC’s global demand assessment decreases by 110 kb/d for a total y-o-y increase of 5.79 mb/d in 2021 with absolute demand at 96.05 mb/d.
The EIA also revised up down its assessment by 180 kb/d with a demand growth of 5.38 mb/d y-o-y for an absolute demand of 97.67 mb/d.

OECD Demand

The IEA decreases its assessment by 90 kb/d for OECD oil demand growth of 2.65 mb/d with the Americas comprising most of the increase at 1.57 mb/d. The IEA anticipates total OECD consumption for 2021 at 44.72 mb/d.
OPEC’s demand projection for the OECD region decreased by 120 kb/d for y-o-y growth of 2.47 mb/d with the Americas comprising most of the increase at 1.60 mb/d for absolute demand at 44.51 mb/d.
The EIA’s assessment for OECD demand growth decreases by 50 kb/d to 2.42 mb/d with the Americas comprising most of the increase at 1.60 mb/d for an absolute demand at 44.32 mb/d.

Non-OECD Demand

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA anticipate increases in non-OECD demand for this year of 2.78, mb/d, 3.32 mb/d, and 2.96 mb/d respectively, diverging by 0.54 mb/d. This is driven largely by Asia, Middle East, and the Americas. Total non-OECD demand forecasts average 51.72 mb/d, 51.54 mb/d, and 53.35 mb/d respectively, diverging by 1.81 mb/d.

China Demand

Overall demand in 2021 will be 14.79 mb/d, an increase of 860 kb/d from last year according to the IEA.
Overall demand in 2021 will be 14.14 mb/d, an increase of 1.10 mb/d from last year according to OPEC.
Overall demand in 2021 will be 15.13 mb/d, an increase of 820 kb/d from last year according to the EIA.

India Demand

According to the IEA, Indian demand is expected to increase by 380 kb/d in 2021 to reach a total demand of 4.92 mb/d.
Overall demand will increase by 590 kb/d with total demand of 4.99 mb/d in 2021. according to OPEC.
The EIA forecasts overall demand at 4.85 mb/d in 2021, an increase of 480 kb/d from last year.

3.2 Supply Data

Figure 2
IEA, OPEC, and EIA show differences in supply growth
All three organisations converge on OECD supply growth

Non-OPEC Supply

The IEA forecasts non-OPEC supply at 64.00 mb/d with an adjusted supply growth of 0.94 mb/d for 2021, an increase of 360 kb/d. Most of the growth comes from Canada (0.38 mb/d), Brazil (0.16 mb/d), Russia (0.11 mb/d), and Norway (0.13 mb/d).
OPEC’s February assessment of total non-OPEC supply for 2021 stands at 63.33 mb/d for a total growth of 0.67 mb/d, a decrease of 180 kb/d. Most of the growth comes from Canada (0.27 mb/d), Brazil (0.17 mb/d), US (0.16 mb/d), and Norway (0.13 mb/d).
The EIA’s assessment for non-OPEC supply is at 65.03 mb/d with a supply growth of 1.40 mb/d. Most of the growth comes from Canada (0.50 mb/d), Brazil (0.39 m b/d), Norway (0.20 mb/d), and Russia (0.16 mb/d).

OECD Supply

The IEA forecasts OECD supplies to increase by 0.41 mb/d for 2021 while OPEC and the EIA see growth at 0.54 mb/d with total supply reaching 28.28 mb/d, 29.68 mb/d, and 31.26 mb/d, respectively in 2021 and diverging by 2.98 mb/d.
The IEA’s data shows that OECD Americas oil supply increases by 330 kb/d to reach 24.16 mb/d in total. OPEC reports an increase of 430 kb/d with total oil supply reaching 25.14 mb/d in 2021. The EIA reports an increase of 500 kb/d for a total supply of 26.33 mb/d.
The IEA’s assessment for OECD Europe supply records an increase by 60 kb/d for total production of 3.57 mb/d led primarily by Norway. OPEC’s assessment for total OECD Europe production in 2021 is 4.01 mb/d with a growth of 120 kb/d. The EIA reports an increase of 110 kb/d for a total supply of 4.38 mb/d.

OPEC Supply

The IEA reports that OPEC production increased by 240 kb/d m-o-m in January to reach total production of 25.45 mb/d led by Saudi Arabia.
OPEC reports that total OPEC-13 crude oil production averaged 25.50 mb/d in January according to secondary sources which is an increase of 180 kb/d m-o-m. Crude oil output increased primarily in Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Iran.
The EIA reports OPEC production decreased by 10 kb/d m-o-m in January for a total production of 25.26 mb/d.

3.3 Stock Data

IEA data shows OECD commercial inventories fell by 44.6 mb m-o-m in December to 3063 mb and are 138.3 mb above the five-year average. Crude oil inventories dropped by only 1.1 mb while product stocks fell by 32.7 mb. Other oils, including NGLs and feedstocks drew by 10.8 mb.
According to OPEC, preliminary data for December showed that total OECD commercial oil inventories fell by 39.3 mb m-o-m to 3068 mb and are now 143.4 mb above the latest five-year average. OPEC estimates a crude draw of 24.2 mb while product stocks fell by 15.1 mb.
EIA estimates OECD inventories dropped by 52.8 mb in December to 3045 mb – 135 mb above the five-year average.

JODI Data:

US crude oil closing stock levels fell by 14.96 mb m-o-m in December to 1123.54 mb.
Japanese crude oil stock levels were revised downward by 10.17 mb and its December figure virtually unchanged m-o-m at 364.92 mb.
Korean crude oil closing stock levels rose by 714 kb mb m-o-m in December to 125.32 mb.
German crude oil closing stock levels in December rose m-o-m by 325 kb to 153.11 mb.
UK crude oil closing stock levels in December rose m-o-m by 1.26 mb to 27.67 mb.

Figure 3
IEA and OPEC data show alignment on OECD stock builds

Figure 4
Stock decline rates by the IEA and OPEC converge
OECD stocks remain well above five-year average

3.3.1 Global Stock Analysis

IEA, JODI, and available weekly inventory data for December imply crude, NGL, and product stocks tumbled for a fifth consecutive month by ~84.3 mb.

JODI non-OECD data for December shows inventories decreased by 24.0 mb including a 7.9 mb crude draw and a 15.6 mb product draw. Products in drew in Indonesia (13.0 mb), Nigeria (1.5 mb), Thailand (0.5 mb), and Chinese Taipei (3.1 mb). Crude stocks drew in Saudi Arabia (3.4 mb), Thailand (3.9 mb).
Floating crude inventories fell by 7.9 mb in December and 32.3 mb in January. They are now 150.5 mb below their June peak.
Rapidan Energy Group’s preliminary global inventory estimate for January shows visible inventories tumbled by 67.6 mb. Early data shows OECD commercial inventories dropped for a sixth consecutive month in January including a 7.6 mb decline in OECD product stocks.
There is a wide divergence between preliminary data (total inventories drop by 67.6 mb) while EIA – the only agency with a monthly breakdown – is showing a slight 1.9 mb build. The builds in January are the first builds in EIA’s monthly balance since May and are partially driven by a higher-than-normal seasonal monthly drop in global demand (down 2.3 mb/d m/m from December to January).
Preliminary data shows global inventories drew by ~347.9 mb in 2H20, led by a 171.8 mb drop in total OECD stocks and a 118.2 mb drop in floating crude.

Table 1

Figure 5

Figure 6

Explanatory Note

To inform IEF stakeholders on how perspectives on the oil market of both organisations evolve over time regularly, this monthly summary provides:

An overview of key events and initiatives in the international policy and market context.
Key findings and a snapshot overview of data points gained from comparing basic historical data and short-term forecasts of the IEA Oil Market Report and the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
A comparative analysis of oil inventory data reported by JODI, the IEA, OPEC, and the US EIA, and secondary sources in collaboration with the Rapidan Energy Group.

The International Energy Forum

The International Energy Forum is the leading global facilitator of dialogue between sovereign energy market participants. It incorporates members of International Energy Agency and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and also key players including China, India, Russia and South Africa. The forum's biennial ministerial meetings are the world's largest gathering of energy ministers, where discussions focus on global energy security and the transition towards an inclusive and sustainable energy future. The forum has a permanent secretariat of international staff based in the Diplomatic Quarter of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. For more information visit www.ief.org.

\"]}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-11","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":125696,"name":"CA Feb 2021 Hompage","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/ca-feb-2021-hompage.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/ca-feb-2021-hompage.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":3883,"created":"2021-02-01T14:50:00","date":"2021-01-31T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

New U.S. President Joe Biden Rejoins Paris Climate Agreement and Signs Broad Executive Order on Climate Change

Newly inaugurated U.S. President Joe Biden rejoins the Paris Climate Agreement which will take effect in 30 days and signed the Executive Order on Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad. Other actions included:
- Directing the Environmental Protection Agency and Transportation Department to consider revising automobile fuel-economy and tailpipe emissions standards.
- A 60-day moratorium on issuing oil and gas leases on federal lands.
- Halting construction of the cross-border Keystone XL oil pipeline from Canada by revoking the permit awarded by the Trump administration.

Japan Suffers Worst Energy Crisis Since 2011 as Electricity Prices Soar

Domestic wholesale electricity prices in Japan soared to record highs due to cold weather in East Asia coupled with low natural gas supply (liquified natural gas specifically) and limited output from nuclear power stations. The resulting demand for natural gas, for both electricity generation and home heating, pushed Asian spot LNG prices to their highest point since the launch of the JKM LNG Price Assessment. Other factors pushing Asian LNG prices higher were a shortage of available LNG carriers and delays transiting the Panama Canal.

Saudi Arabia Makes Voluntary Adjustment at the 13th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting

The 13th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on 5 January 2021 acknowledged the need to gradually return 2 mb/d to the market, with the pace being determined according to market conditions. Saudi Arabia announced a unilateral production adjustment of 1 mb/d in February and March. This will widen the overall production adjustment to 8.125 mb/d in February before narrowing to 8.05 million in March.

2. Key Points

2.1 Demand

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA show alignment on demand growth in 2021.

IEA, OPEC, and EIA production assessments for the year 2021 issued in January are new outlooks and have no bearing on the year prior.
The IEA reports a year-on-year (y-o-y) demand growth of 5.45 mb/d due to widespread vaccine roll-out, a return of pent up demand, and the potential of economic recovery around the world.
OPEC’s forecasts a y-o-y demand growth of 5.90 mb/d.
EIA assessment reports demand growth of 5.56 mb/d in 2021. The IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimates for absolute world demand are now 96.64 mb/d 95.91 mb/d, and 97.77 mb/d for 2021, respectively.

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA forecast growth in OECD and non-OECD demand.

The IEA’s non-OECD reports demand growth of 2.72 mb/d, while OPEC reports growth at 3.31 mb/d largely due to growth in Chinese demand. The EIA’s assessment for non-OECD demand growth reaches 3.09 mb/d y-o-y.
The IEA’s estimate for OECD demand reaches a y-o-y increase of 2.74 mb/d for 2021. OPEC reports demand growth at 2.59 mb/d while EIA’s assessment sees growth at 2.47 mb/d y-o-y.
IEA, OPEC, and EIA assessments differ by 270 kb/d and 590 kb/d on OECD and non-OECD demand growth, respectively.

2.2 Supply

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA forecast higher non-OPEC supply growth in 2021.

The IEA’s January assessment for non-OPEC supply reaches total growth of 0.58 mb/d while OPEC reports total growth of 0.85 mb/d. The EIA reports higher overall demand growth of 1.22 mb/d y-o-y. In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA estimate non-OPEC supply at 63.61 mb/d and 63.53 mb/d, and 64.89 mb/d, respectively for 2021.
The IEA reports OECD supply growth at 120 kb/d while OPEC records OECD growth at 720 kb/d. The EIA also records an increase with a growth of 490 kb/d. In absolute values, the IEA and OPEC, and EIA estimate OECD supply at 27.97 mb/d, 29.85 mb/d, and 31.15 mb/d, respectively for 2021 and diverging by 3.18 mb/d.

The IEA and OPEC report less non-OECD supply growth than the EIA.

The IEA’s supply assessment reaches total supply growth of 80 kb/d while OPEC’s forecast reports a decline of 10 kb/d. The EIA is more optimistic with a growth of 740 kb/d. In absolute values, the IEA, OPEC, and EIA non-OECD supply estimates are 30.58 mb/d and 31.48 mb/d, and 33.75 mb/d, respectively for 2021 diverging by 3.17 mb/d.

The IEA, OPEC, and the EIA report increases in OPEC production in December with increases coming primarily from Libya, Iraq, and the UAE according to the IEA and OPEC.

The IEA revised its OPEC production by 150 kb/d month-on-month (m-o-m) in December to reach total production of 25.20 mb/d. OPEC also reported an increase by 280 kb/d m-o-m for total production of 25.36 mb/d in December. The EIA also increased its assessment by 230 kb/d for total OPEC crude production of 25.26 mb/d in December.

2.3 Stocks

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA continue to report strong alignment on stock figures. The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 3108 mb, which is close to OPEC’s assessment of 3104 mb and EIA’s assessment of 3091 mb, for OECD stock that is 166.7 mb, 163.1 mb, and 165 mb above the five-year average, respectively. The divergence between the IEA, OPEC, and EIA stands at 17 mb. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 477 mb according to the EIA which are about 5 percent above the five-year average for this time of year. OPEC reports US commercial crude oil stocks at about 485 mb and around 39 mb above the five-year average.

2.4 Snapshot (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

3.1 Demand Data

Figure 1
IEA, OPEC, and EIA show swift demand recovery in 2021
All three organisations show alignment on demand growth

Absolute Demand

The IEA’s estimate for global demand increased to 5.45 mb/d in January for an absolute demand of 96.64 mb/d in 2021 due to positive sentiment caused by the vaccine roll-out and the increased potential for economic recovery.
As the traditional driver of demand growth, demand in non-OECD Asia reports growth of 1.72 mb/d in 2021.
OPEC’s global demand assessment reports a total y-o-y increase of 5.90 mb/d in 2021 with absolute demand at 95.91 mb/d.
The EIA also revised up its assessment with a demand growth of 5.56 mb/d y-o-y for an absolute demand of 97.77 mb/d.

OECD Demand

The IEA reports an OECD oil demand growth of 2.74 mb/d with the Americas comprising most of the increase at 1.59 mb/d. The IEA anticipates total OECD consumption for 2021 at 44.78 mb/d.
OPEC’s demand projection for the OECD region is 2.59 mb/d with the Americas comprising most of the increase at 1.58 mb/d for an absolute 2021 demand at 44.75 mb/d.
The EIA’s assessment for OECD demand growth is 2.47 mb/d with the Americas comprising most of the increase at 1.67 mb/d for an absolute 2021 demand at 44.39 mb/d.

Non-OECD Demand

The IEA, OPEC, and EIA anticipate increases in non-OECD demand for this year of 2.72, mb/d, 3.31 mb/d, and 3.09 respectively, diverging by 0.59 mb/d. This is driven largely by Asia, Middle East, and the Americas. Total non-OECD demand forecasts average 51.86 mb/d, 51.17 mb/d, and 53.38 mb/d respectively, diverging by 2.21 mb/d.

China Demand

Overall demand in 2021 will be 14.65 mb/d, an increase of 750 kb/d from last year according to the IEA.
Overall demand in 2021 will be 13.99 mb/d, an increase of 1.10 mb/d from last year according to OPEC.
Overall demand in 2021 will be 15.16 mb/d, an increase of 850 kb/d from last year according to the EIA.

India Demand

According to the IEA, Indian demand is expected to increase by 380 kb/d in 2021 to reach a total demand of 5.04 mb/d.
Overall demand will increase by 570 kb/d with total demand of 4.76 mb/d in 2021. according to OPEC.
The EIA forecasts overall demand at 4.86 mb/d in 2021, an increase of 500 kb/d from last year.

3.2 Supply Data

Figure 2
IEA, OPEC, and EIA are aligned on overall supply growth in 2021
EIA is slightly more optimistic on Non-OPEC supply

Non-OPEC Supply

The IEA forecasts non-OPEC supply at 63.61 mb/d with an adjusted supply growth of 0.58 mb/d for 2021.
OPEC’s January assessment of total non-OPEC supply for 2021 stands at 63.53 mb/d with a total growth of 0.85 mb/d. Most of the increase comes from the US (0.37 mb/d), Canada (0.25 mb/d), Brazil (0.17 mb/d), and Norway (0.13 mb/d).
The EIA’s assessment for non-OPEC supply is at 64.89 mb/d with a supply growth of 1.22 mb/d.

OECD Supply

The IEA forecasts OECD supplies to increase by 0.12 mb/d for 2021. OPEC reports supply growth at 0.72 mb/d, and the EIA sees growth at 0.49 mb/d with total supply reaching 27.97 mb/d, 29.85 mb/d, and 31.15 mb/d, respectively in 2021 and diverging by 3.18 mb/d.
The IEA’s data shows that OECD Americas oil supply increases by 40 kb/d to reach 23.84 mb/d in total. OPEC reports an increase of 610 kb/d with total oil supply reaching 25.31 mb/d in 2021. The EIA reports an increase of 460 kb/d for a total supply of 26.25 mb/d.
The IEA’s assessment for OECD Europe supply records an increase by 60 kb/d for total production of 3.57 mb/d led primarily by Norway. OPEC’s assessment for total OECD Europe production in 2021 is 4.01 mb/d with a growth of 120 kb/d. The EIA reports an increase of 110 kb/d for a total supply of 4.37 mb/d.

OPEC Supply

The IEA reports that OPEC production increased by 150 kb/d m-o-m in December to reach total production of 25.20 mb/d led by Libya.
OPEC reports that total OPEC-13 crude oil production averaged 25.36 mb/d in December according to secondary sources which is an increase of 280 kb/d m-o-m. Crude oil output increased primarily in Libya, Iraq, and the UAE.
The EIA reports OPEC production increased by 230 kb/d m-o-m in December for a total production of 25.26 mb/d.

3.3 Stock Data

IEA data shows OECD commercial inventories fell by 23.6 mb m-o-m in November to 3108 mb and are 166.7 mb above the five-year average. Crude oil inventories dropped by only 3.8 mb while product stocks fell by 23.1 mb. Other oils, including NGLs and feedstocks drew by 3.3 mb.
According to OPEC, preliminary data for November showed that total OECD commercial oil inventories fell by 24.5 mb m-o-m to 3104 mb and are now 163.1 mb above the latest five-year average. OPEC estimates a crude draw of 11.2 mb while product stocks fell by 13.3 mb.
EIA estimates OECD inventories dropped by 26.8 mb in November to 3,091 mb – 165 mb above the five-year average.

JODI Data:

US crude oil closing stock levels rose by 2.70 mb m-o-m in November to 1134.85 mb.
Japanese crude oil stock levels in October were revised downward by 9.39 mb and its November figure is virtually unchanged month-on-month at 374.93 mb.
Korean crude oil closing stock levels fell by 6.84 mb m-o-m in November to 124.61 mb.
German crude oil closing stock levels in November rose m-o-m by 2.61 mb to 153.87 mb.
UK crude oil closing stock levels in November fell m-o-m by 2.15 mb to 25.78 mb – the lowest level since monitoring began in 2002.

Figure 3
IEA and OPEC data show alignment on OECD stock builds

Figure 4
Stock decline rates by the IEA and OPEC converge
OECD stocks remain well above five-year average

3.3.1 Global Stock Analysis

IEA, JODI, and available weekly inventory data for November imply crude oil, NGL, and product stocks tumbled for a fourth consecutive month by ~46.7 mb.

JODI non-OECD data shows inventories increased by 11.5 mb including a 9.9 mb product build and a 1.3 mb crude build. Products in India built by 5.1 mb after drawing in five of the past six months. Products also built in Taiwan (1.4 mb), Saudi Arabia (1.0 mb), Bahrain (0.8 mb), and Nigeria (0.6 mb). Crude builds in Brazil (2.8 mb), Iraq (2.2 mb), and Thailand (1.5 mb) were partially offset by draws in Gabon (-2.6 mb) and India (-2.0 mb).
Floating crude inventories fell by 35.4 mb in November and 7.9 mb in December. They are now 118.2 mb below their June peak, but remain ~50 mb above year-ago levels.
Rapidan Energy Group’s preliminary global inventory estimate for December shows visible inventories tumbled by 45.9 mb. Early data shows OECD commercial inventories dropped for a fifth consecutive month in December including a 30.8 mb decline in OECD product stocks.
Preliminary data shows global inventories drew by ~273.7 mb in 2H20, led by a 118.2 mb drop in floating crude and a 105.3 mb drop in OECD commercial product stocks.
IEA, OPEC, and EIA’s global oil balances continue to imply the market was oversupplied by ~1.2-1.5 billion barrels in 1H20 and undersupplied by 0.2-0.4 billion barrels in 2H20, suggesting the market has cleaned up ~13-30% of the 1H20 surplus. However, inventory data only shows a 466.2 mb build in 1H20 and a 273.7 mb draw in 2H20, implying nearly 60% of the 1H20 builds have been reversed.

Table 1

Figure 5

Figure 6

Explanatory Note

The IEF conducts a comprehensive comparative analysis of the short-, medium-, and long-term energy outlooks of the IEA, OPEC, and the EIA, to inform the IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks that the IEF hosts in Riyadh as part of the trilateral work programme on a yearly basis.

To inform IEF stakeholders on how perspectives on the oil market of both organisations evolve over time more regularly, this monthly summary provides:

An overview of key events and initiatives in the international policy and market context.
Key findings and a snapshot overview of data points gained from comparing basic historical data and short-term forecasts of the IEA Oil Market Report and the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
A comparative analysis of oil inventory data reported by JODI, the IEA, OPEC, the US EIA and secondary sources in collaboration with the Rapidan Energy Group.

The International Energy Forum

\"]}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-10","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":124322,"name":"CA Jan 2021 Hompage","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/ca-jan-2021-hompage.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/ca-jan-2021-hompage.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":6,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis IEA OPEC EIA"}]},{"id":3861,"created":"2020-12-30T10:05:00","date":"2020-12-29T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

Countries Declare Renewed Ambition on Energy, Climate, and Circular Economy Models

As the US President-elect stated his administration's decision to rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement, and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, new climate commitments were announced at the UK Climate Ambition Summit co-convened by the UN and France, in partnership with Italy and Chile on 12 December 2020, to mark the five-year anniversary of the Paris Climate Agreement.
China pledged to lower its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by over 65 percent from the 2005 levels, increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 25 percent, bring its total installed capacity of wind and solar power to over 1.2 billion kilowatts, and increase forest cover by six billion cubic meters from 2005 levels by 2030.
The UK announced a target to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions 68 percent from 1990 levels by 2030.
The EU also committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions 55 percent below 1990 levels by 2030, up from the previous pledge of 40 percent.

12th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting Concludes

OPEC and non-OPEC producers agreed on 3 December to increase production by 500,000 barrels per day beginning in January. This will bring the total production cuts at the start of 2021 down to 7.2 mb/d from the current levels of 7.7 mb/d. Participating countries also agreed to hold monthly OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial meetings starting in January 2021 to assess evolving market conditions.

LNG Prices Climb To Six-Year High: Greater Energy Market Volatility Looms

A combination of outages at major productions hubs, colder weather in key importing countries, and congestion along global shipping routes have pushed LNG spot prices in Asia to the highest level since 2014. Noting that natural gas supply will not recover as fast as demand and may cause further market turbulence over the coming months at the Gastech Conference on 8 September 2020, the IEF Report on Oil and Gas Investment in the New Risk Environment released in collaboration with the Boston Consulting Group on 10 December 2020 points at greater market volatility and higher trending prices.

Attacks on Energy Infrastructure Threaten Market Stability

IEF Secretary General, Joseph McMonigle condemned attacks on energy infrastructure on 23 November 2020 reiterating that such attacks: \\\"...serve as another stark reminder for governments from producing and consuming countries, as well as the global energy sector, of their responsibility to maintain energy security and market stability in evermore complex and densely interconnected world markets.\\\" A subsequent attack on 14 December on an oil tanker, as it unloaded fuel at Jeddah port, caused an explosion and a fire onboard.

2. Key Points

2.1 Demand

The IEA and OPEC posted small demand declines but largely remain stable.

The IEA reported a demand decrease of 40 kb/d and a year-on-year (y-o-y) demand decline of -8.82 mb/d due to continued uncertainty caused by COVID-19 in various countries.
OPEC's demand forecast decreased by 20 kb/d for a y-o-y demand decline of -9.77 mb/d. The IEA and OPEC estimates for absolute world demand are now 91.22 mb/d and 89.99 mb/d, respectively.

The IEA and OPEC continue to diverge on non-OECD demand.

The IEA's non-OECD demand assessment remains unchanged for a demand decline of -3.27 mb/d, while OPEC reports an increase of 160 kb/d for an overall decline of -4.29 mb/d largely due to improving demand from China.
The IEA's estimate for OECD demand decreased by 30 kb/d to reach a total decline of -5.54 mb/d for 2020. OPEC's estimate decreased by 180 kb/d to reach a demand decline of -5.48 mb/d.
The IEA and OPEC differ by 60 kb/d and 1.02 mb/d on OECD and non-OECD demand declines, respectively.

2.2 Supply

Both the IEA and OPEC's non-OPEC supply projections decrease slightly but largely remain stable.

The IEA's December assessment for non-OPEC supply is down by 20 kb/d to reach a total decline of -2.60 mb/d while OPEC's assessment decreased by 70 kb/d for a total decline of -2.50 mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA and OPEC estimate non-OPEC supply at 63.01 mb/d and 62.67 mb/d respectively for 2020.
The IEA reports OECD supply declines at -0.66 mb/d, up by 40 kb/d. OPEC records OECD declines at -0.88 mb/d, a decrease of 40 kb/d from last month. In absolute values, the IEA and OPEC estimate OECD supply at 27.85 mb/d and 29.13 mb/d, respectively for 2020 diverging by 1.28 mb/d.

Both the IEA and OPEC post slight decreases to non-OECD supply.

The IEA's supply assessment decreased by 80 kb/d for a total decline of -1.51 mb/d while OPEC's forecast decreased by 40 kb/d for a total decline of -1.44 mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA and OPEC non-OECD supply estimates are 30.47 mb/d and 31.47 mb/d respectively for 2020 diverging by 1 mb/d.

Both the IEA and OPEC report increases in OPEC production in November with increases coming primarily from Libya and the UAE.

The IEA revised its OPEC production by 730 kb/d month-on-month (m-o-m) in November to reach total production of 25.02 mb/d. OPEC also reported an increase by 710 kb/d m-o-m for total production of 25.11 mb/d in November.

2.3 Stocks

The IEA and OPEC continue to report strong alignment on stock figures. The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 3129 mb, which is close to OPEC's assessment of 3145 mb for OECD stock that is 183 mb and 200 mb above the five-year average, respectively. The divergence between OPEC and the IEA stands at 16 mb. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 500 mb according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) which are about 11 percent above the five-year average for this time of year. OPEC reports US commercial crude stocks at about 488 mb and 29 mb above the five-year average.

2.4 Snapshot (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

3.1 Demand Data

Figure 1
IEA and OPEC demand remains largely steady
OPEC Non-OECD demand increases slightly

Absolute Demand

The IEA's estimate for global demand declined to -8.82 mb/d in December, a decrease of 40 kb/d, for an absolute demand of 91.22 mb/d in 2020. OECD demand decreased by a further 30 kb/d due to a rebound in COVID-19 cases across Europe and North America.
As the traditional driver of demand growth, demand in non-OECD Asia increased for the second consecutive month from -1.33 mb/d to -1.25 mb/d according to the IEA.
OPEC's global demand assessment decreased by 20 kb/d for a total decline of -9.77 mb/d in 2020 with absolute demand at 89.99 mb/d.
Global demand is expected to recover by 5.69 mb/d and 5.90 mb/d in 2021 according to the IEA and OPEC, respectively.

OECD Demand

The IEA reports an OECD oil demand decline of -5.54 mb/d, down from last month's figure of -5.51 mb/d with the Americas comprising most of the decrease at -3.03 mb/d. The IEA anticipates total OECD consumption for 2020 at 42.15 mb/d.
OPEC's demand projection for the OECD region decreased by 180 kb/d to reach a demand decline of -5.48 mb/d with the Americas comprising most of the decrease at -2.80 mb/d for an absolute 2020 demand at 42.27 mb/d.

Non-OECD Demand

The IEA and OPEC anticipate declines in non-OECD demand for this year of -3.27 mb/d and -4.29 mb/d, respectively, diverging by 1.02 mb/d. This is driven largely by Asia, Middle East, and the Americas. Total non-OECD demand forecasts average 49.07 mb/d and 47.73 mb/d, respectively, diverging by 1.34 mb/d.

China Demand

Overall demand in 2020 will be 13.83 mb/d, an increase of 120 kb/d from last year and demand is expected to rise by 840 kb/d in 2021 according to the IEA.
Overall demand in 2020 will be 12.53 mb/d, a drop of 770 kb/d, but demand is expected to recover by 1.10 mb/d in 2021 according to OPEC.

India Demand

According to the IEA, Indian demand is expected to drop by 440 kb/d in 2020 to reach a total demand of 4.67 mb/d with a recovery by 390 kb/d in 2021.
Overall demand will decline by 800 kb/d with total demand of 4.04 mb/d in 2020. Demand will recover by 570 kb/d in 2021 according to OPEC.

3.2 Supply Data

Figure 2
IEA and OPEC Non-OPEC supply estimates decrease slightly
IEA and OPEC OECD estimates diverge slightly

Non-OPEC Supply

The IEA forecasts non-OPEC supply at 63.01 mb/d with an adjusted supply drop of -2.60 mb/d for 2020, a decrease of 20 kb/d compared to last month. In 2021, non-OPEC production will see a modest recovery of 540 kb/d.
OPEC's December assessment of total non-OPEC supply for 2020 stands at 62.67 mb/d. Supply decreased by 70 kb/d with a total decline of -2.50 mb/d. Most of the decline comes from Russia (-1.05 mb/d), the US (-0.77 mb/d), and Canada (-0.30 mb/d). Norway, Brazil, and China are forecast to be the key drivers of growth.

OECD Supply

The IEA forecasts OECD supplies to decline by -0.66 mb/d for 2020 while OPEC reports a decline at -0.88 mb/d with total supply reaching 27.85 mb/d and 29.13 mb/d respectively in 2020 and diverging by 1.28 mb/d.
The IEA's data shows that OECD Americas oil supply declines by 0.87 mb/d to reach 23.78 mb/d in total. OPEC reports a decline of -1.07 mb/d with total oil supply reaching 24.70 mb/d in 2020.
The IEA's assessment for OECD Europe supply records an increase by 200 kb/d for total production of 3.53 mb/d led primarily by Norway. OPEC's assessment for total OECD Europe production in 2020 is 3.89 mb/d with a growth of 180 kb/d.

OPEC Supply

The IEA reports that OPEC production increased by 730 kb/d m-o-m in November to reach total production of 25.02 mb/d led by Libya and the UAE.
OPEC reports that total OPEC-13 crude oil production averaged 25.11 mb/d in November according to secondary sources which is an increase of 710 kb/d m-o-m. Crude oil output increased primarily in Libya and the UAE.

3.3 Stock Data

IEA data shows OECD commercial inventories fell by 55.3 mb m-o-m in October to 3129 mb and are 183.4 mb above the five-year average. Crude inventories dropped by only 2.5 mb while product stocks fell by 44.1 mb. Other oils, including NGLs and feedstocks drew by 8.7 mb.
According to OPEC, preliminary data for October showed that total OECD commercial oil fell by 46.3 mb m-o-m to 3145 mb and are now 200.3 mb above the latest five-year average. Unlike the IEA, OPEC estimates a sizable crude draw of 21.5 mb while product stocks fell an additional 24.8 mb.
OECD Asia Oceania crude stocks increased by 5.1 mb according to the IEA while OPEC records a decrease of 0.3 mb for the OECD Asia Pacific. OECD Europe stocks fell by 0.4 mb according to the IEA and 8.3 mb according to OPEC.

JODI Data:

US crude oil closing stock levels fell by 14.75 mb m-o-m in October to 1124.8 mb.
Japanese crude oil stock levels in October were revised downward by 5.84 mb and its October figure rose month-on-month by 6.81 mb m-o-m to 384.21 mb.
Korean crude oil closing stock levels rose by 4.71 mb m-o-m in October to a 33 month high of 131.46 mb.
German crude oil closing stock levels in October were revised upward by 1.39 mb to 154.07 mb.
UK crude oil closing stock levels fell by 3.55 mb m-o-m in October to 24.11 mb – the lowest level since monitoring began in 2002.

Figure 3
IEA and OPEC data show alignment on OECD stock builds

Figure 4
Stock decline rates by the IEA and OPEC converge
OECD stocks remain well above five-year average

3.3.1 Global Stock Analysis

IEA, JODI, and available weekly inventory data imply crude, NGL, and product stocks fell for a third consecutive month in October, removing ~65.7 mb from the still-glutted inventories.

Floating crude inventories declined by 3.5 mb in October and 18.1 mb in November. They now stand ~95 mb below their summer peak but remain >60 mb above their five-year average. Nearly 75% of the remaining glut is located off shore Asia.
Rapidan Energy Group's preliminary global inventory estimate for November shows visible inventories tumbled by 58 mb, led by a 26.1 mb decline in OECD product stocks. Non-OECD product inventories drew by an additional 13.6 mb.
Global inventories drew by ~98.5 mb in 3Q20, led by a ~71.4 mb drop in floating crude. Steep draws in OECD inventories and floating crude stocks were partially offset by a ~25.3 mb build in non-OECD product and other inventories. Notably, JODI non-OECD crude and product inventory data for July and August continue to show a net 31.3 mb build in Indonesia and a 26.8 mb build in China.
IEA and OPEC's 1H20 global oil balances continue to imply the market was oversupplied by ~1.3-1.5 billion barrels. Preliminary data through November show inventories have drawn by ~222 mb in 2H20, reversing only ~15% of the builds implied by the agencies.

Table 1

Figure 5

Figure 6

Explanatory Note

The IEF conducts a comprehensive comparative analysis of the short-, medium-, and long-term energy outlooks of the IEA and OPEC, to inform the IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks that the IEF hosts in Riyadh as part of the trilateral work programme on a yearly basis.

To inform IEF stakeholders on how perspectives on the oil market of both organisations evolve over time more regularly, this monthly summary provides:

An overview of key events and initiatives in the international policy and market context.
Key findings and a snapshot overview of data points gained from comparing basic historical data and short-term forecasts of the IEA Oil Market Report and the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
A comparative analysis of oil inventory data reported by JODI, the IEA, OPEC, the US EIA and secondary sources in collaboration with the Rapidan Energy Group.

The International Energy Forum

The IEF is the neutral facilitator of informal, open, informed and continuing global energy dialogue. Covering all six continents, the IEF is unique in that it comprises not only countries of the IEA and OPEC, but also key players including China, India, Russia and South Africa. The Forum's biennial Ministerial Meetings are the world's largest gathering of Energy Ministers. Through the Forum and its associated events, IEF Ministers, their officials, energy industry executives, and other experts engage in a dialogue of increasing importance to global energy security and orderly energy transitions. The IEF and the global energy dialogue are promoted by a permanent Secretariat of international staff based in the Diplomatic Quarter of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. For more information visit www.ief.org.

\"]}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-9","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":123518,"name":"CA Dec 2020 Hompage","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/ca-dec-2020-hompage.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/ca-dec-2020-hompage.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3835,"created":"2020-11-23T10:13:00","date":"2020-11-23T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

Energy Markets Rise on Potential COVID-19 Vaccine

As COVID-19 cases continue to climb in Europe and North America, vaccine developers announced their vaccine was found to be more than 90 percent effective in preventing COVID-19 according to first interim analysis of its phase three study. Oil prices moved higher as WTI climbed 8.5 percent and Brent was up 7.5 percent marking the largest single-session rally on a percentage basis since May and June, respectively.

President-Elect Joe Biden Offers New Energy Vision

The election of Joe Biden as the 46th President of the United States on 3 November 2020 will have several implications for US energy policy. Beyond rejoining the Paris Agreement and a pathway to net-zero emissions by 2050, the $2 trillion spending goal set for energy transition that is focused on infrastructure may receive bipartisan cooperation. New policies and legislative initiatives will also affect how fast US oil and gas production and job opportunities will recover from COVID-19 impacts.

IEA and OPEC Bearish on Short-term Oil Demand

The IEA recorded its largest drop in oil demand since April with a 420 kb/d decrease from last month to reach a total demand decline of 8.78 mb/d. OPEC's assessment was down by 280 kb/d for an overall demand decline of 9.75 mb/d – OPEC's largest overall decline of the year. The IEA, however, continues to be optimistic on Chinese demand which is set to increase by 80 kb/d in 2020.

24th Meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC)

At the 24th JMMC Monitoring Committee that met on 17 November, HE Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Minister of Energy, Saudi Arabia urged all the participants in the Declaration of Cooperation to renew their determination to abide by the terms of the agreement that has greatly contributed to the balancing of global markets.

2. Key Points

2.1 Demand

The IEA records its largest demand decline since April while OPEC posts its largest decline of the year.

The IEA reported a demand decrease of 420 kb/d and a year-on-year (y-o-y) demand decline of -8.78 mb/d due to uncertainty caused by COVID-19 in various countries.
OPEC's demand forecast decreased by 280 kb/d for a y-o-y demand decline of -9.75 mb/d – OPEC's largest decline of the year. The IEA and OPEC estimates for absolute world demand are now 91.28 mb/d and 90.01 mb/d, respectively.

The IEA and OPEC continue to diverge on non-OECD demand.

The IEA's estimate for OECD demand decreased by 570 kb/d to reach a total decline of -5.51 mb/d for 2020. OPEC's estimate decreased by 460 kb/d to reach a demand decline of -5.30 mb/d.
The IEA's non-OECD demand assessment increased by 150 kb/d for a total demand decline of -3.27mb/d, while OPEC reports an increase of 180 kb/d for an overall decline of -4.45 mb/d.
The IEA and OPEC differ by 0.21 kb/d and 1.18 kb/d on OECD and non-OECD demand decline, respectively.

2.2 Supply

Both the IEA and OPEC's non-OPEC supply projections decreased slightly.

The IEA's November assessment for non-OPEC supply is down by 20 kb/d to reach a total decline of -2.58 mb/d while OPEC's assessment decreased by 60 kb/d for a total decline of -2.43 mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA and OPEC estimate non-OPEC supply at 62.97 mb/d and 62.73 mb/d respectively for 2020.
The IEA reports OECD supply declines at -0.70 mb/d, up by 50 kb/d. OPEC records OECD declines at -0.84 mb/d, a decrease of 120 kb/d from last month. In absolute values, the IEA and OPEC estimate OECD supply at 27.81 mb/d and 29.17 mb/d, respectively for 2020 diverging by 1.36 mb/d.

Both the IEA and OPEC post slight increases to non-OECD supply.

The IEA's supply assessment increased by 30 kb/d for a total decline of -1.43 mb/d while OPEC's forecast increased by 60 kb/d for a total decline of -1.40 mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA and OPEC non-OECD supply estimates are 30.47 mb/d and 31.50 mb/d respectively for 2020 diverging by 1.03 mb/d.

Both the IEA and OPEC report increases in OPEC production in October with increases coming primarily from Libya and Iraq.

The IEA revised its OPEC production by 200 kb/d m-o-m in October to reach total production of 24.25 mb/d. OPEC also reported an increase by 320 kb/d month-on-month (m-o-m) for total production of 24.39 mb/d in October.

2.3 Stocks

The IEA and OPEC continue to report strong alignment on stock figures. The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 3192 mb, which is close to OPEC's assessment of 3179 mb for OECD stock that is 225 mb and 211.9 mb above the five-year average, respectively. The divergence between OPEC and the IEA stands at 13 mb. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 490 mb according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) which are about 6 percent above the five-year average for this time of year. OPEC reports US commercial crude stocks at about 484 mb and around 28 mb above the five-year average.

2.4 Snapshot (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

3.1 Demand Data

Figure 1
IEA and OPEC demand decreases further
IEA and OPEC Non-OECD demand disparity persists

Absolute Demand

The IEA's estimate for global demand declined to -8.78 mb/d in November, a decrease of 420 kb/d, for an absolute demand of 91.28 mb/d in 2020. OECD demand decreased by 570 kb/d due to a rebound in COVID-19 cases across Europe and North America.
As the traditional driver of demand growth, demand in non-OECD Asia increased for the second consecutive month from -1.50 mb/d in October to -1.33 in November according to the IEA.
OPEC's global demand assessment decreased by 280 kb/d for a total decline of -9.75 mb/d in 2020 with absolute demand at 90.01 mb/d.
Global demand is expected to recover by 5.80 mb/d and 6.25 mb/d in 2021 according to the IEA and OPEC, respectively.

OECD Demand

The IEA reports an OECD oil demand decline of -5.51 mb/d, down from last month's figure of -4.94 mb/d with the Americas comprising most of the decrease at -2.99 mb/d. The IEA anticipates total OECD consumption for 2020 at 42.24 mb/d.
OPEC's demand projection for the OECD region decreased by 460 kb/d to reach a demand decline of -5.30 mb/d with the Americas comprising most of the decrease at -2.66 mb/d for an absolute 2020 demand at 42.44 mb/d.

Non-OECD Demand

The IEA and OPEC anticipate declines in non-OECD demand for this year of -3.27 mb/d and -4.45 mb/d, respectively, diverging by 1.18 mb/d. This is driven largely by Asia, Middle East, and the Americas. Total non-OECD demand forecasts average 49.04 mb/d and 47.57 mb/d, respectively, diverging by 1.47 mb/d.

China Demand

Overall demand in 2020 will be 13.78 mb/d, an increase of 80 kb/d from last year and demand is expected to rise by 830 kb/d in 2021 according to the IEA.
Overall demand in 2020 will be 12.53 mb/d, a drop of 770 kb/d, but demand is expected to recover by 1.10 mb/d in 2021 according to OPEC.

India Demand

According to the IEA, Indian demand is expected to drop by 460 kb/d in 2020 to reach a total demand of 4.65 mb/d with a recovery by 370 kb/d in 2021.
Overall demand will decline by 800 kb/d with total demand of 4.04 mb/d in 2020. Demand will recover by 570 kb/d in 2021 according to OPEC.

3.2 Supply Data

Figure 2
IEA and OPEC Non-OPEC supply estimates decreased slightly
IEA and OPEC OECD estimates diverge slightly

Non-OPEC Supply

The IEA forecasts non-OPEC supply at 62.97 mb/d with an adjusted supply drop of -2.58 mb/d for 2020, a decrease of 20 kb/d compared to last month. In 2021, non-OPEC production will see a modest recovery of 480 kb/d.
OPEC's November assessment of total non-OPEC supply for 2020 stands at 62.73 mb/d. Supply decreased by 60 kb/d with a total decline of -2.43mb/d. Most of the decline comes from Russia (-1.09 mb/d), the US (-0.72 mb/d), and Canada (-0.33 mb/d). Norway, Brazil, and China are forecast to be the key drivers of growth.

OECD Supply

The IEA forecasts OECD supplies to decline by -0.70 mb/d for 2020 while OPEC reports a decline at -0.84 mb/d with total supply reaching 27.81 mb/d and 29.17 mb/d respectively in 2020 and diverging by 1.36 mb/d.
The IEA's data shows that OECD Americas oil supply declines by 0.93 mb/d to reach 23.72 mb/d in total. OPEC reports a decline of -1.06 mb/d with total oil supply reaching 24.71 mb/d in 2020.
The IEA's assessment for OECD Europe supply records an increase by 210 kb/d for total production of 3.55 mb/d led primarily by Norway. OPEC's assessment for total OECD Europe production in 2020 is 3.91 mb/d with a growth of 200 kb/d.

OPEC Supply

The IEA reports that OPEC production increased by 200 kb/d m-o-m in October to reach total production of 24.25 mb/d led by Libya and Iraq.
OPEC reports that total OPEC-13 crude oil production averaged 24.39 mb/d in October according to secondary sources which is an increase of 320 kb/d m-o-m. Crude oil output increased primarily in Libya, Iraq, and Nigeria.

3.3 Stock Data

IEA data shows OECD commercial inventories fell by 19.7 mb m-o-m in September to 3192 mb and are 225 mb above the five-year average. Crude inventories dropped by only 3.1 mb while product stocks fell by 12.2 mb. Other oils, including NGLs and feedstocks, also drew by 4.4 mb.
According to OPEC, preliminary data for September showed that total OECD commercial oil fell by 15.3 mb m-o-m to 3179 mb and are now 211.9 mb above the latest five-year average. Unlike the IEA, OPEC estimates most draws occurred in crude stocks (13.0 mb) while product stocks only dropped by 2.2 mb. OPEC estimates crude inventories in OECD Americas fell by 17.0 mb m-o-m compared to IEA's estimate of a 6.8 mb decline.

JODI Data:

US crude oil closing stock levels fell by 16.51 mb m-o-m in September to 1135 mb.
Japanese crude oil stock levels in August were revised downward by 7.54 mb and its September figure rose m-o-m by 1.89 mb m-o-m to 383.24 mb.
Korean crude oil closing stock levels rose by 2.98 mb m-o-m in September to 126.75 mb.
German crude oil closing stock levels in September were revised downward by 3.03 mb and its September figure rose m-o-m by 3.13 mb to 155.69 mb.
UK crude oil closing stock levels fell by 3.06 mb m-o-m in September to 25.35 mb.

Figure 3
IEA and OPEC data show alignment on OECD stock builds

Figure 4
Stock decline rates by the IEA and OPEC converge
OECD stocks remain well above five-year average

3.3.1 Global Stock Analysis

IEA, JODI, and available weekly inventory data imply crude, NGL, and product stocks fell by ~55.6 mb in 3Q20, including a 61.7 mb draw in September.

Floating crude inventories declined by 30.4 mb in September led by a 25.4 mb drop in Asia. Floating crude fell by an additional 11.2 mb in October to stand ~95 mb below their summer peak but remaining >60 mb above their five-year average.
Rapidan Energy Group's preliminary global inventory estimate for October shows visible inventories tumbled by 97 mb led by a 49.5 mb decline in OECD commercial and SPR stocks. Meanwhile, non-OECD crude inventories drew by an additional 31.0 mb.
Preliminary data suggests 3Q20 global inventories drew by ~55.6 mb, led by a ~91.1 mb drop in floating crude. Steep draws in OECD inventories and floating crude stocks were partially offset by a ~68.7 mb build across non-OECD inventories. Notably, JODI non-OECD crude and product inventory data for July and August show a net 31.3 mb build in Indonesia and a 26.8 mb build in China.
IEA and OPEC's 1H20 global oil balances continue to imply the market was oversupplied by ~1.3-1.5 billion barrels. Only ~25% of the oversupply appeared in OECD commercial and government inventory data. IEA's China crude balance implies another ~20% of 1H20's oversupply flowed into Chinese crude stocks. An additional ~10% appeared in floating crude data. Only ~2% is accounted for in available JODI non-OECD stock data.

Table 1

* Aggregate of all non-OECD data available through JODI. Not all non-OECD countries report inventory data and the countries in the aggregate may vary monthly depending on the regularity of individual country reporting. Source: IEA, JODI, OPEC, Rapidan Energy Group.

Figure 5

Figure 6

Explanatory Note

To inform IEF stakeholders on how perspectives on the oil market of both organisations evolve over time more regularly, this monthly summary provides:

An overview of key events and initiatives in the international policy and market context.
Key findings and a snapshot overview of data points gained from comparing basic historical data and short-term forecasts of the IEA Oil Market Report and the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
A comparative analysis of oil inventory data reported by JODI, the IEA, OPEC, the US EIA and secondary sources in collaboration with the Rapidan Energy Group.

The International Energy Forum

\"]}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-8","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":122768,"name":"November","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/november.png","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/november.png","fileExt":"png","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3814,"created":"2020-11-01T19:12:00","date":"2020-10-27T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

Libya Restarts Oil Production

Libya's oil industry, shut down since the beginning of the year, is reopening with output tripling to 300,000 barrels a day after the partial lifting of a blockade on energy facilities. Libya produced around 1.2 mb/d at the start of the year, before the blockade shut down most ports and fields.

US Gulf Coast Hurricanes Limit Supply

Around 30 percent of Gulf of Mexico crude remains offline due to Hurricane Delta. At its peak on 10 October, the storm shut-in almost 2 mb/d of crude and 2 MMcf/d of gas production, respectively, representing 92 percent and 62 percent of total Gulf output. This is the fourth hurricane to impact Louisiana this year.

IEA and OPEC Differ on Long-Term Energy Outlooks

According to OPEC's World Oil Outlook, global primary energy demand is forecast to continue growing in the medium- and long-term, increasing by a significant 25 percent in the period to 2045. Oil is expected to retain the largest share of the energy mix throughout the outlook period, accounting for a 27 percent share in 2045. According to the IEA’s World Energy Outlook, oil demand will continue to grow albeit at a slower pace and plateau in the 2030s. Coal's share of the energy mix will fall below 20 percent for the first time as renewables will become the primary means of producing electricity by 2025.

G20 Energy Ministerial Meeting Communique Highlights IEF Role

G20 Energy Ministers meeting virtually on 27-28 September 2020 against the backdrop of the unprecedented impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, invited the IEF to enhance dialogue and collaboration on the Circular Carbon Economy Accelerator, Energy Security, Market Stability and Investment, Enhance Data Transparency, and sharpen focus on short term issues in the G20 Energy Focus Group.

2. Key Points

2.1 Demand

Demand remains stable according to both the IEA and OPEC.

The IEA reported a demand increase of 70 kb/d and a year-on-year (y-o-y) demand decline of -8.36 mb/d due to uncertainty caused by COVID-19 in various countries.
OPEC's demand forecast decreased by 10 kb/d for a y-o-y demand decline of -9.47 mb/d. The IEA and OPEC estimates for absolute world demand are now 91.71 mb/d and 90.29 mb/d, respectively.

The IEA and OPEC diverge on non-OECD demand.

The IEA's estimate for OECD demand decreases by 110 kb/d to reach a total decline of -4.94 mb/d for 2020. OPEC's estimate decreases by 60 kb/d to reach a demand decline of -4.84 mb/d.
The IEA's non-OECD demand assessment decreased by 180 kb/d for a total demand decline of -3.42mb/d, while OPEC reports an increase of 50 kb/d for an overall decline of -4.63 mb/d.
The IEA and OPEC differ by 0.10 kb/d and 1.21 kb/d on OECD and non-OECD demand decline, respectively.

2.2 Supply

Both the IEA and OPEC's non-OPEC supply projections increase, and OPEC surpasses IEA estimates for the first time since April.

The IEA's October assessment for non-OPEC supply is up by 90 kb/d to reach a total decline of -2.56 mb/d while OPEC's assessment increases by 310 kb/d for a total decline of -2.37 mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA and OPEC estimate non-OPEC supply at 63.08 mb/d and 62.79 mb/d respectively for 2020.
The IEA reports OECD supply declines at -0.75 mb/d, down by 10 kb/d. OPEC records OECD declines at -0.72 mb/d, an increase of 310 kb/d from last month. In absolute values, the IEA and OPEC estimate OECD supply at 27.84 mb/d and 29.28 mb/d, respectively for 2020 diverging by 1.44 mb/d.

The IEA posts a slight increase to non-OECD supply while OPEC remains constant.

The IEA's supply assessment increased by 60 kb/d for a total decline of -1.46 mb/d while OPEC remained the same at -1.46 mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA and OPEC non-OECD supply estimates are 30.44 mb/d and 31.44 mb/d respectively for 2020 diverging by 1 mb/d.

Both the IEA and OPEC report decreases in OPEC production to enhance compliance, led mainly by the United Arab Emirates.

The IEA revised its OPEC production by 340 kb/d m-o-m in September to reach total production of 24.08 mb/d. OPEC also reported a decrease by 50 kb/d month-on-month (m-o-m) for total production of 24.11 mb/d in September.

2.3 Stocks

The IEA and OPEC continue to report strong alignment on stock figures. The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 3194 mb, which is close to OPEC’s assessment of 3204 mb for OECD stock that is 209.1 mb and 219.3 mb above the five-year average, respectively. The divergence between OPEC and the IEA stands at 10 mb. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 488 mb according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) which are about 10 percent above the five-year average for this time of year. OPEC reports US commercial crude stocks at about 493 mb and around 50 mb above the five-year average.

2.4 Snapshot (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

3.1 Demand Data

Figure 1
IEA and OPEC demand remains largely stable
IEA and OPEC Non-OECD demand diverges further

Absolute Demand

The IEA's estimate for global demand declined to -8.36 mb/d in October for an absolute demand of 91.71 mb/d in 2020.
As the traditional driver of demand growth, demand in non-OECD Asia increased from -1.66 mb/d to -1.50 mb/d in October according to the IEA.
OPEC's global demand assessment decreased by 10 kb/d for a total decline of -9.47 mb/d in 2020. Absolute demand is below the 100 mb/d mark at 90.29 mb/d.
Global demand is expected to recover by 5.49 mb/d and 6.54 mb/d in 2021 according to the IEA and OPEC, respectively.

OECD Demand

The IEA reports an OECD oil demand decline of -4.94 mb/d, down from last month's figure of -4.83 mb/d with the Americas comprising most of the decrease at -2.70 mb/d. The IEA anticipates total OECD consumption for 2020 at 42.81 mb/d.
OPEC's demand projection for the OECD region decreases by 60 kb/d to reach a demand decline of -4.84 mb/d with the Americas comprising most of the decrease at -2.45 mb/d for absolute 2020 demand at 42.90 mb/d.

Non-OECD Demand

The IEA and OPEC anticipate declines in non-OECD demand for this year of -3.42 mb/d and -4.63 mb/d, respectively, diverging by 1.21 mb/d. This is driven largely by Asia, Middle East, and the Americas. Total non-OECD demand forecasts average 48.91 mb/d and 47.39 mb/d, respectively, diverging by 1.52 mb/d.

China Demand

Overall demand in 2020 will be 13.68 mb/d, a decrease of 20 kb/d from last year but demand expected to rise by 730 kb/d in 2021 according to the IEA.
Overall demand in 2020 will be 12.53 mb/d, a drop of 770 kb/d, but demand is expected to recover by 1.10 mb/d in 2021 according to OPEC.

India Demand

According to the IEA, Indian demand is expected to drop by 510 kb/d in 2020 to reach a total demand of 4.60 mb/d with a recovery by 340 kb/d in 2021.
Overall demand will decline by 800 kb/d with total demand of 4.04 mb/d in 2020. Demand will recover by 570 kb/d in 2021 according to OPEC.

3.2 Supply Data

Figure 2
OPEC Non-OPEC supply surpasses the IEA estimate
OPEC converges with the IEA on OECD supply

Non-OPEC Supply

The IEA forecasts non-OPEC supply at 63.08 mb/d with an adjusted supply drop of -2.56 mb/d for 2020, an increase of 90 kb/d compared to last month. In 2021, non-OPEC production will see a modest recovery of 440 kb/d.
OPEC's October assessment of total non-OPEC supply for 2020 stands at 62.79 mb/d. Supply increases by 310 kb/d with a total decline of -2.37 mb/d. Most of the decline comes from Russia (-1.09 mb/d), the US (-0.65 mb/d), and Canada (-0.33 mb/d). Norway, Brazil, and Guyana are forecast to be the key drivers of growth.

OECD Supply

The IEA forecasts OECD supplies to decline by -0.75 mb/d for 2020 while OPEC reports a similar decline at -0.72 mb/d with total supply reaching 27.84 mb/d and 29.28 mb/d respectively in 2020 and diverging by 1.44 mb/d.
The IEA's data shows that OECD Americas oil supply declines by 1 mb/d to reach 23.73 mb/d in total. OPEC reports a similar decline at -1.01 mb/d with total oil supply reaching 24.77 mb/d in 2020.
The IEA's assessment for OECD Europe supply records an increase by 230 kb/d for total production of 3.57 mb/d led primarily by Norway. OPEC’s assessment for total OECD Europe production in 2020 is 3.96 mb/d with a growth of 250 kb/d.

OPEC Supply

The IEA reports that OPEC production decreased by 340 kb/d m-o-m in September to reach total production of 24.08 mb/d led by decreased production in the UAE.
OPEC reports that total OPEC-13 crude oil production averaged 24.11 mb/d in September according to secondary sources which is a decrease of 50 kb/d m-o-m. Crude oil output increased in Libya, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia.

3.3 Stock Data

IEA data shows OECD commercial inventories fell by 22.1 mb m-o-m in August to 3194 mb and are 209.1 mb above the five-year average. Crude inventories dropped by 25.1 mb while product stocks rose by 9.2 mb. Other oils, including NGLs and feedstocks, drew by 6.2 mb.
According to OPEC, preliminary data for August showed that total OECD commercial oil fell by 20.7 mb m-o-m to 3204 mb and are now 219.6 mb above the latest five-year average. OPEC estimates crude stocks drew by 30.2 mb while product stocks increased by 9.4 mb.

JODI Data:

The US crude oil closing stock levels fell by 27.87 mb m-o-m in August to 1147.5 mb.
Japanese crude oil stocks rose 7.65 mb m-o-m in August to 388.89 mb.
Korean crude oil closing stock levels fell by 3.94 mb m-o-m in August to 123.77 mb.
German crude oil closing stock levels rose by 4.47 mb m-o-m in August to 155.6 mb.
Having hit its 26-month high in July, UK crude oil closing stock levels fell by 2.12 mb m-o-m in August to 31.0 mb.

Figure 3
IEA and OPEC data show alignment on OECD stock builds

Figure 4
Stock decline rates by the IEA and OPEC converge
OECD stocks remain well above five-year average

3.3.1 Global Stock Analysis

IEA and available weekly inventory data imply crude, NGL, and product stocks fell by ~54.0 mb in August in the first monthly decline of the year.

Floating crude inventories collapsed by 39.7 mb in August, driven by draws in Asia (-19.4 mb), Middle East (-8.1 mb), and US Gulf Coast (-5.4mb).
Rapidan Energy Group's preliminary global inventory estimate for September shows visible inventories tumbled by an additional 84.7 mb led by a 77.7 mb drop in floating crude storage and a 10.8 mb decline in OECD commercial and SPR stocks. Meanwhile, non-OECD crude inventories grew by 10.8 mb.
Preliminary data suggests 3Q20 global inventories drew by ~124 mb, led by a ~143 mb drop in floating crude and offsetting ~22% of 1H20's historic builds. This preliminary estimate falls between the agencies' implied supply deficits for 3Q20 of 211 mb (IEA) and 56 mb (OPEC).
The IEA's and OPEC's 1H20 global oil balances continue to imply the market was oversupplied by ~1.4-1.5 billion barrels built up in storage. Only ~25% of the oversupply appeared in OECD commercial and government inventory data. IEA's China crude balance implies another ~20% of 1H20's oversupply flowed into Chinese crude stocks. An additional ~10% appeared in floating crude data. And only ~2% is accounted for in available JODI non-OECD stock data.

Table 1

Figure 5

Figure 6

Explanatory Note

To inform IEF stakeholders on how perspectives on the oil market of both organisations evolve over time more regularly, this monthly summary provides:

An overview of key events and initiatives in the international policy and market context.
Key findings and a snapshot overview of data points gained from comparing basic historical data and short-term forecasts of the IEA Oil Market Report and the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
A comparative analysis of oil inventory data reported by JODI, the IEA, OPEC, the US EIA and secondary sources in collaboration with the Rapidan Energy Group.

The International Energy Forum

The IEF is the neutral facilitator of informal, open, informed and continuing global energy dialogue. Covering all six continents, the IEF is unique in that it comprises not only countries of the IEA and OPEC, but also key players including China, India, Russia and South Africa. The Forum’s biennial Ministerial Meetings are the world’s largest gathering of Energy Ministers. Through the Forum and its associated events, IEF Ministers, their officials, energy industry executives, and other experts engage in a dialogue of increasing importance to global energy security and orderly energy transitions. The IEF and the global energy dialogue are promoted by a permanent Secretariat of international staff based in the Diplomatic Quarter of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. For more information visit www.ief.org.

\"]}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-7","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":122115,"name":"CA Octo 2020","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/ca-octo-2020.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/ca-octo-2020.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]},{"id":122107,"name":"2 4","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/2-41.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/2-41.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]},{"id":122108,"name":"3","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/3.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/3.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]},{"id":122109,"name":"3 1","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/3-11.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/3-11.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]},{"id":122110,"name":"3 2","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/3-21.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/3-21.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]},{"id":122111,"name":"4","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/4.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/4.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]},{"id":122112,"name":"5","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/5.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/5.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]},{"id":122113,"name":"6","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/6.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/6.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]},{"id":122114,"name":"Table 1","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/table-11.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/table-11.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3665,"created":"2020-09-22T18:27:00","date":"2020-09-22T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee Reiterates Conformity

The 22nd Meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMCC) took place on 17 September 2020. The committee welcomed the compliance of OPEC and non-OPEC countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation that reached 102 percent in August 2020. The JMMC also recommended to the OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting the request of several underperforming member countries to extend the compensation period until the end of December 2020.

Oil Demand Falls Due To COVID-19 Resurgence

Demand sentiment weakened according to both the IEA and OPEC as they report the largestdrop in global demand since April and May, respectively. IEA lowered its forecast by 350 kb/dand OPEC lowered its assessment by 400 kb/d. Although the intensity of COVID-19 is slowing insome countries, it is rising in others adding uncertainty to demand outlooks.

US Gulf Coast Hurricanes Limit Supply

More than 30 percent of US Gulf crude and 25 percent of natural gas output remains offline due to Hurricane Sally which has impacted the US Gulf Coast. This comes less than a month after hurricane Laura shuttered 1.5 mb/d or 85 percent of Gulf oil production and 2.3 mb/d of refining capacity making it the busiest Atlantic hurricane season since 2005.

Oil Inventory Data

IEA estimates July OECD commercial inventories rose by 13.5 mb month-on-month (m-o-m) to 3,225 mb and stood 255.7 mb above the five-year average. According to OPEC, preliminary data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 4.5 mb m-o-m to 3231 mb and are now 260.6 mb above the latest five-year average.

2. Key Points

2.1 Demand

Both the IEA and OPEC report demand decreases in September.

The IEA reported a demand decrease by 350 kb/d and a year-on-year (y-o-y) demand decline of -8.43 mb/d due to uncertainty caused by COVID-19 in various countries.
OPEC's demand forecast decreased by a similar margin at 400 kb/d for a y-o-y demand decline of -9.46 mb/d. The IEA and OPEC estimates for absolute world demand are now 91.70 mb/d and 90.23 mb/d, respectively.

The IEA and OPEC converge on OECD demand decline while diverging on non-OECD demand.

The IEA's estimate for OECD demand decreases by 280 kb/d to reach a total decline of -4.83 mb/d for 2020. OPEC's estimate increases by 50 kb/d to reach a demand decline of -4.78 mb/d.
The IEA's non-OECD demand assessment decreased by 70 kb/d for a total demand decline of -3.60 mb/d, while OPEC reports a decrease of 450 kb/d for an overall decline of -4.68 mb/d.
The IEA and OPEC differ by 0.05 kb/d and 1.08 kb/d on OECD and non-OECD demand decline, respectively.

2.2 Supply

Both the IEA and OPEC's overall supply projections increase and converge in September.

The IEA's September assessment for non-OPEC supply is up by 200 kb/d to reach a total decline of -2.65 mb/d while OPEC's assessment increases by 350 kb/d for a total decline of -2.68 mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA and OPEC estimate non-OPEC supply at 63.01 mb/d and 62.47 mb/d respectively for 2020.
The IEA reports OECD supply decline at -0.74 mb/d, up by 70 kb/d. OPEC records OECD decline at -1.03 mb/d, an increase of 290 kb/d from last month. In absolute values, the IEA and OPEC estimate OECD supply estimates at 27.85 mb/d and 28.98 mb/d, respectively.

Both the IEA and OPEC post slight increases to non-OECD supply in September.

The IEA's supply assessment increased by 50 kb/d for a total decline of -1.52 mb/d while OPEC also revised its assessment up by 50 kb/d to reach -1.46 mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA and OPEC non-OECD supply estimates are 30.40 mb/d and 31.43 mb/d respectively for 2020.

Both the IEA and OPEC report increases in OPEC production as quotas ease, led mainly by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates.

The IEA revised its OPEC production by 830 kb/d m-o-m in August to reach total production of 24.51 mb/d. OPEC also reported an increase by 760 kb/d m-o-m for total production of 24.05 mb/d in August.

2.3 Stocks

The IEA and OPEC continue to report strong alignment on stock figures. The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 3225 mb, which is close to OPEC's assessment of 3231 mb for OECD stock that is 255.7 mb and 260.6 mb above the five-year average, respectively. The divergence between OPEC and the IEA stands at 6 mb for September. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 500 mb according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The primary divergences between IEA and OPEC estimates were in Asia (total inventories +9.6 mb for IEA vs. -0.1 mb for OPEC) and the Americas (-7.2 mb vs. -12.3 mb). The EIA reports U.S. commercial crude oil inventories at 496 mb which are 14 percent above the five-year average for this time of year. OPEC reports US commercial crude stocks at about 498 mb which are around 56 mb above the five-year average.

2.4 Snapshot (mb/d)

Data obtained from IEA Oil Market Report, 15 September 2020; OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, 14 September 2020, and Energy Information Administration, Weekly Petroleum Status Report, 16 September 2020.
* Totals in table may not exactly reflect content due to independent rounding.

3. Global Analysis

3.1 Demand Data

Figure 1
Both IEA and OPEC report slight decreases in demand
IEA and OPEC converge on OECD demand but disagree on Non-OECD demand

Absolute Demand

The IEA' s estimate for global demand declined to -8.43 mb/d in September for an absolute demand of 91.70 mb/d in 2020. The 350 kb/d decrease is the largest drop in demand since April.
As the traditional driver of demand growth, demand in non-OECD Asia dropped from -1.54 mb/d to -1.66 mb/d in September according to the IEA.
OPEC's global demand assessment decreased by 400 kb/d for a total decline of -9.46 mb/d in 2020. Absolute demand is below the 100 mb/d mark at 90.23 mb/d.
Global demand is expected to recover by 5.45 mb/d and 6.62 mb/d in 2021 according to the IEA and OPEC, respectively.

OECD Demand

The IEA reports an OECD oil demand decline of -4.83 mb/d, down from last month's figure of -4.55 mb/d with the Americas comprising most of the decrease at -2.61 mb/d. The IEA anticipates total OECD consumption for 2020 at 42.92 mb/d.
OPEC's demand projection for the OECD region increases by 50 kb/d to reach a demand decline of -4.78 mb/d with total OECD demand for 2020 at 42.90 mb/d.

Non-OECD Demand

The IEA and OPEC anticipate declines in non-OECD demand for this year of -3.60 mb/d and -4.68 mb/d, respectively. This is driven largely by Asia, Middle East, and the Americas. Total non-OECD demand forecasts average 48.78 mb/d and 47.34 mb/d, respectively.

China Demand

Overall demand in 2020 will be 13.59 mb/d, a decrease of 110 kb/d from last year but demand expected to rise by 710 kb/d in 2021 according to the IEA.
Overall demand in 2020 will be 12.45 mb/d, a drop of 850 kb/d, but demand is expected to recover by 1.10 mb/d in 2021 according to OPEC.

India Demand

According to the IEA, Indian demand is expected to drop by 510 kb/d in 2020 to reach a total demand of 4.60 mb/d with a recovery by 430 kb/d in 2021.
Overall demand will decline by 800 kb/d with total demand of 4.04 mb/d in 2020. Demand will recover by 570 kb/d in 2021 according to OPEC.

3.2 Supply Data

Figure 2
IEA and OPEC supply forecast rises and converges
IEA remains more optimistic than OPEC on OECD supply

Non-OPEC Supply

The IEA forecasts non-OPEC supply at 63.01 mb/d with a supply growth of -2.65 mb/d for 2020, an increase of 200 kb/d compared to last month. In 2021, non-OPEC production will see a modest demand recovery of 470 kb/d.
OPEC's September assessment of total non-OPEC supply for 2020 stands at 62.47 mb/d. Supply growth increases by 350 kb/d with a total decline of -2.68 mb/d. Most of the decrease comes from Russia (-1.12 mb/d), the US (-0.97 mb/d), and Canada (-0.32 mb/d). Norway, Brazil, and Guyana are forecast to be the key drivers of growth.

OECD Supply

The IEA forecasts OECD supply decline at -0.74 mb/d for 2020 while OPEC reports a slightly larger decline at -1.03 mb/d with total supply reaching 27.85 mb/d and 28.98 mb/d respectively in 2020.
The IEA's data shows that OECD Americas oil supply declines by 1.01 mb/d to reach 23.72 mb/d in total. OPEC reports a larger decline at -1.31 mb/d with total oil supply reaching 24.46 mb/d in 2020.
The IEA's assessment for OECD Europe supply records an increase by 0.24 mb/d for total production of 3.58 mb/d led primarily by Norway. OPEC's assessment for total OECD Europe production in 2020 is 3.96 mb/d with a growth of 0.25 mb/d.

OPEC Supply

The IEA reports that OPEC production increased by 830 kb/d m-o-m in August to reach total production of 24.51 mb/d as production increased in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE.
OPEC reports that total OPEC-13 crude oil production averaged 24.05 mb/d in August according to secondary sources which is an increase of 763 kb/d m-o-m. Crude oil output increased in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Algeria, and Angola while production decreased in Iraq.

3.3 Stock Data

IEA data shows OECD commercial inventories rose by 13.5 mb m-o-m in July to 3225 mb and are 255.7 mb above the five-year average. Crude inventories increased counter-seasonally by 2.4 mb while product stocks grew by an additional 13.5 mb. Other oils, including NGLs and feedstocks, drew by 2.5 mb.
According to OPEC, preliminary data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil fell by 4.5 mb m-o-m to 3231 mb and are now 260.6 mb above the latest five-year average. OPEC estimates crude stocks dropped by 9.7 mb while product stocks increased by 5.3 mb. The primary divergences between the IEA and OPEC estimates of were in OECD Asia. The IEA saw total inventories rise by +9.6 mb while OPEC observed a modest drop of -0.1 mb. OECD Americas inventories declined by -7.2 mb vs. -12.3 mb according to the IEA and OPEC respectively.

JODI Data:

JODI non-OECD data for July imply crude stocks built by 9.2 mb and product stocks built by 23.5 mb. Crude builds primarily occurred in China (7.2 mb) and Angola (3.9 mb). Product builds occurred primarily in China (20.8 mb).
The US crude oil closing stock level in July fell m-o-m by 14.18 mb to 1173.8 mb.
Japanese crude oil stock level in June was revised downward by 9.87 mb and its July figure rose m-o-m by 7.13 mb to 385.31 mb.
Korean crude oil closing stock level in July rose m-o-m by 7.58 mb 127.72 mb.
UK total oil products closing stock level in July rose m-o-m by 175 kb to 52.56 mb.

Figure 3
IEA and OPEC data show alignment on OECD stock builds

Figure 4
IEA and OPEC begin to converge on stock balances over time
IEA and OPEC stocks are climbing above the five-year average

3.3.1 Global Stock Analysis

IEA, JODI, and floating inventory data imply crude, NGL, and product stocks climbed by 9.1 mb in July

Floating crude inventories collapsed by 37.2 mb in July, nearly offsetting the onshore builds. Floating storage declines were driven by draws in Asia (-16.1 mb), US Gulf of Mexico (-10.4 mb), and Europe (-8.6 mb).
The IEA's and OPEC's 1H20 global oil balances imply the market was oversupplied by ~1.4-1.6 billion barrels. Only ~21-25% of the oversupply appeared in OECD commercial and government inventory data. IEA's China crude balance implies another ~20% of 1H20's oversupply flowed into Chinese crude stocks. An additional ~20% appeared in floating crude data. And only ~2% is accounted for in available JODI non-OECD stock data.
Rapidan Energy Group's preliminary global inventory estimate shows visible inventories dropped by 37.2 mb in August led by a 24.3 mb drop in OECD crude storage and another 23.6 mb decline in floating crude storage. Meanwhile, non-OECD crude inventories grew by 17.7 mb.

Table 1

Figure 5

Figure 6

Explanatory Note

To inform IEF stakeholders on how perspectives on the oil market of both organisations evolve over time more regularly, this monthly summary provides:

An overview of key events and initiatives in the international policy and market context.
Key findings and a snapshot overview of data points gained from comparing basic historical data and short-term forecasts of the IEA Oil Market Report and the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
A comparative analysis of oil inventory data reported by JODI, the IEA, OPEC, the US EIA and secondary sources in collaboration with the Rapidan Energy Group.

The International Energy Forum

\"]}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-6","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":120773,"name":"IB Sep@1X 100","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/ib-sep1x-100.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/ib-sep1x-100.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]},{"id":121120,"name":"2 4","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/2-4.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/2-4.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]},{"id":121121,"name":"3 1","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/3-1.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/3-1.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]},{"id":121122,"name":"3 2","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/3-2.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/3-2.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]},{"id":121123,"name":"Fig 3","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/fig-3.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/fig-3.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]},{"id":121124,"name":"Fig 4","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/fig-4.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/fig-4.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]},{"id":121125,"name":"Fig 5","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/fig-5.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/fig-5.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]},{"id":121126,"name":"Fig 6","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/fig-6.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/fig-6.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]},{"id":121129,"name":"Table 1","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/table-1.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/table-1.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3667,"created":"2020-08-21T17:11:00","date":"2020-08-19T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

OPEC and Non-OPEC Partners Increase Production

OPEC production increased by 1.2 mb/d and 0.98 mb/d in July according to IEA and OPEC reports after Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE ended additional voluntary adjustments. The OPEC + agreement has now transitioned to Phase 2 in August, when the adjustments pledged by the OPEC+ alliance ease from 9.7 mb/d to 7.7 mb/d through December.

Jet Fuel Demand Weaker Than Anticipated

The IEA lowered its overall oil demand forecast after three months of consecutive increases to 8.1 mb/d largely due to reduced air travel. Jet fuel demand will decrease by 39 percent or 3.1 million b/d this year as the recovery has been \\\"weaker than anticipated with flight schedules still well below normal levels in many regions.\\\" In 2021, the year-on-year (y-o-y) recovery for jet fuel is anticipated to be just below 1 mb/d.

Oil Inventory Data

IEA estimates June OECD commercial inventories rose by 16.2 mb month-on-month (m-o-m) to 3,235 mb and stood 286.7 mb above the five-year average. According to OPEC, preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 24.3 mb m-o-m to 3240 mb and are now 291.2 mb above the latest five-year average.

US Rig Count Falls To Lowest Level Since 2005

US shale oil production continues to be impacted due to decreased oil demand amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of active oil rigs in U.S. fields fell by 4 to 172, according to Baker Hughes – the lowest level of activity since 2005 before the shale boom started. The IEA and OPEC expect US production to decrease by 910 kb/d and 1.32 mb/d in 2020, respectively.

2. Key Points

2.1 Demand

Both the IEA and OPEC report demand decreases in August.
- The IEA reported a demand decrease for the first time in three months by 150 kb/d to reach a y-o-y demand decline of -8.08 mb/d.
- OPEC's demand forecast decreased by 110 kb/d for a y-o-y demand decline of 9.06 mb/d. The IEA and OPEC estimates for absolute world demand are now 91.95 mb/d and 90.63 mb/d, respectively.
The IEA and OPEC converge closer on OECD demand decline while diverging on non-OECD demand.
- The IEA's estimate for OECD demand decreases by 320 kb/d to reach a total decline of –4.55 mb/d for 2020. OPEC's estimate increases by 90 kb/d to reach a demand decline of -4.83 mb/d.
- The IEA's non-OECD demand assessment increased by 160 kb/d for a total demand decline of –3.53 mb/d, while OPEC reports a decrease of 200 kb/d for an overall decline of -4.23 mb/d.
- The IEA and OPEC differ by 0.28 kb/d and 0.70 kb/d on OECD and non-OECD demand decline, respectively.

2.2 Supply

Both the IEA and OPEC's overall supply projections move up in August.
- The IEA's August assessment for non-OPEC supply is up by 130 kb/d to reach a total decline of -2.85 mb/d while OPEC's assessment increases by 230 kb/d for a total decline of -3.03 mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA and OPEC estimate non-OPEC supply at 62.80 mb/d and 62.11 mb/d respectively for 2020.
- The IEA reports OECD supply decline at -0.89 mb/d, up by 70 kb/d. OPEC records OECD decline at -1.32 mb/d, an increase of 210 kb/d from last month. In absolute values, the IEA and OPEC estimate OECD supply estimates at 27.69 mb/d and 28.67 mb/d, respectively.
Both the IEA and OPEC post increases to non-OECD supply in August.
- The IEA's supply assessment increased by 80 kb/d for a total decline of -1.57 mb/d while OPEC revised its assessment up by 30 kb/d to reach -1.51 mb/d.
- In absolute values, the IEA and OPEC non-OECD supply estimates are 30.35 mb/d and 31.37 mb/d respectively for 2020.
Both the IEA and OPEC report increases in OPEC production as Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates ended their voluntary production adjustments.
- The IEA revised its OPEC production by 1.24 mb/d m-o-m in July to reach total production of 23.75 mb/d.
- OPEC also reported an increase by 0.98 mb/d m-o-m for total production of 23.17 mb/d in July.

2.3 Stocks

The IEA and OPEC continue to report strong alignment on stock figures. The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 3235 mb, which is close to OPEC's assessment of 3240 mb for OECD stock that is 286.7 mb and 291.2 mb above the five-year average, respectively. The divergence between OPEC and the IEA stands at 5 mb for August. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 514 mb according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA reports U.S. crude oil inventories are 15 percent above the five-year average for this time of year. OPEC reports US commercial crude stocks at about 519 mb that are above the five-year average by about 68 mb.

2.4 Snapshot (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

3.1 Demand Data

See the graph below for the monthly revisions of IEA and OPEC annual estimates for 2019 and newestimates for 2020 demand.
*monthly estimates rounded to the nearest barrel.

Both IEA and OPEC report slight decreases in demand in August
IEA and OPEC disagree on Non-OECD demand

Absolute Demand
- The IEA's estimate for global demand declined to -8.08 mb/d in August for an absolute demand of 91.95 mb/d in 2020. This reverses three consecutive months of demand recovery since April.
- As the traditional driver of demand growth, non-OECD Asia demand has been revised up from -1.64 mb/d to -1.54 mb/d in August according to the IEA.
- OPEC's global demand increased slightly for a total decline of -9.06 mb/d in 2020. Absolute demand is below the 100 mb/d mark at 90.63 mb/d.
- Global demand is expected to recover by 5.19 mb/d and 7 mb/d in 2021 according to the IEA and OPEC, respectively.
OECD Demand
- The IEA reports OECD oil demand decline at -4.55 mb/d, down slightly from last month's figure of -4.23 mb/d with the Americas comprising most of the decrease at -2.44 mb/d. The IEA anticipates total OECD consumption for 2020 at 43.13 mb/d.
- OPEC's demand projection for the OECD region increases by 90 kb/d to reach a demand decline of -4.83 mb/d with total OECD demand for 2020 at 42.85 mb/d.
Non-OECD Demand
- The IEA and OPEC anticipate declines in non-OECD demand for this year at -3.53 mb/d and -4.23 mb/d, respectively. This is driven largely by Asia, Middle East, and the Americas. Total non-OECD demand forecasts average 48.82 mb/d and 47.79 mb/d, respectively.
- China Demand
  - Overall demand in 2020 will be 13.59 mb/d, a decrease of 110 kb/d from last year but is expected to rise by 720 kb/d in 2021 according to the IEA.
  - Overall demand in 2020 will be 12.43 mb/d, a drop of 0.87 mb/d, but is expected to recover by 1.10 mb/d in 2021 according to OPEC.
- India Demand
  - According to the IEA, Indian demand is expected to drop by 450 kb/d in 2020 to reach total demand of 4.66 mb/d with a recovery by 410 kb/d in 2021.
  - Overall demand will decline by 600 kb/d in 2020 for total demand of 4.24 mb/d and recover by 740 kb/d in 2021 according to OPEC.

3.2 Supply Data

See the graph below for the monthly revisions of IEA and OPEC annual estimates for 2019 and newestimates for 2020 supply.
*monthly estimates rounded to the nearest barrel.

IEA and OPEC report slight supply recovery in August
IEA remains more optimistic than OPEC on OECD supply

Non-OPEC Supply
- The IEA forecasts non-OPEC supply at 62.80 mb/d with a supply decline of -2.85 mb/d for 2020, an increase of 130 kb/d compared to last month. In 2021, non-OPEC production will see a modest demand recovery of 550 mb/d. Output from non-OPEC countries outside the OPEC+ group is set to fall by 1.5 mb/d on average, accounting for more than half the forecast non-OPEC output drop of 2.85 mb/d.
- OPEC's August assessment of total non-OPEC supply for 2020 stands at 62.11 mb/d. Supply growth increases by 230 kb/d with a total decline of -3.03 mb/d. Most of the decrease comes from the US (-1.32 mb/d), Russia (-1.13 mb/d), and Canada (-0.30 mb/d). Norway, Brazil, and Guyana are forecast to be the key drivers of growth.
OECD Supply
- The IEA forecasts OECD supply decline at -0.89 mb/d for 2020 while OPEC reports a slightly larger decline at -1.32 mb/d with total supply reaching 27.69 mb/d and 28.67 mb/d respectively in 2020.
- The IEA's data also shows OECD Americas oil supply declines by -1.13 mb/d to reach 23.25 mb/d in total. OPEC reports a larger decline at -1.63 mb/d with total oil supply reaching 23.90 mb/d in 2020.
- The IEA's assessment for OECD Europe supply records an increase by 0.22 mb/d for total production of 3.56 mb/d led primarily by Norway. OPEC's assessment for total OECD Europe production in 2020 is 3.98 mb/d with a growth of 0.27 mb/d.
OPEC Supply
- The IEA reports that OPEC production increased by 1.24 mb/d m-o-m in July to reach total production of 23.75 mb/d as several Gulf States ended their voluntary adjustments.
- OPEC reports that total OPEC-13 crude oil production averaged 23.17 mb/d in July according to secondary sources which is an increase of 980 mb/d m-o-m. Crude oil output increased in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq while production decreased in Angola, Congo, and Gabon.

3.3 Stock Data

See the graphs below for monthly estimates of OECD total commercial oil stocks and the monthly comparison versus the five-year average.
*monthly estimates rounded to the nearest barrel.

IEA data shows OECD commercial inventories rose by 16.2 mb m-o-m in June to 3235 mb and are 286.7 mb above the five-year average. Product builds (23.7 mb) more than offset the first monthly crude draw (7.5 mb) of the year according to the IEA.
According to OPEC, preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 24.3 mb m-o-m to 3240 mb and are now 291.2 mb above the latest five-year average. OPEC estimates builds in both crude (12.8 mb) and products (11.5 mb). The largest divergence between the agencies is in the OECD Americas where IEA estimates commercial crude inventories grew by 2.8 mb in June and OPEC estimates an 18.2 mb increase.
According to JODI Data:
- US crude oil closing stocks in April was revised downward by 3060 kb and its May figure rose again m-o-m by 16.54 mb to 1183 mb.
- Having hit its historical low of 370.01 mb in January, Japanese crude oil closing stocks have risen by 28.35 mb to 398.44 mb in May.
- Korean crude oil closing stocks in May rose again m-o-m by 6.43 mb to 122.27 mb.
- UK crude oil closing stocks in May fell m-o-m by 2844 kb to 26.84 mb.
While both the IEA and OPEC report closely aligned data on OECD stocks due to a continuous and reliable data stream and data harmonisation efforts, comprehensive data on stock developments for non-OECD countries is still work in progress.

IEA and OPEC data show alignment on OECD stock builds
Comprehensive non-OECD stock data remains missing

IEA and OPEC begin to converge on stock balances over time
IEA and OPEC stocks are climbing above the five-year average

Preliminary Available Data Shows Global Inventories Drew in July Following Six Consecutive Months of Builds

Rapidan Energy Group's preliminary global inventory estimate shows visible inventories tumbled by 54.6 mb in July led by a 38.8 mb drop in floating crude storage. Meanwhile, steep draws in OECD commercial crude stocks (20.6 mb) were partially offset by product builds (14.9 mb) across the same regions.
IEA and OPEC's 1H20 global oil balances imply the market was oversupplied by ~1.4-1.5 billion barrels. Only ~22-25% of the oversupply appeared in OECD commercial and government inventory data. IEA's China crude balance implies another ~20% of 1H20's oversupply flowed into Chinese crude stocks. And only ~5% is accounted for in available JODI non-OECD stock data through May.

Explanatory Note

To inform IEF stakeholders on how perspectives on the oil market of both organisations evolve over time regularly, this monthly summary provides:

An overview of key events and initiatives in the international policy and market context.
Key findings and a snapshot overview of data points gained from comparing basic historical data and short-term forecasts of the IEA Oil Market Report and the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
A comparative analysis of oil inventory data reported by JODI, the IEA, OPEC, the US EIA, and secondary sources in collaboration with the Rapidan Energy Group.

The International Energy Forum

The IEF is the neutral facilitator of informal, open, informed and continuing global energy dialogue. Covering all six continents, the IEF is unique in that it comprises not only countries of the IEA and OPEC, but also key players including China, India, Mexico, Russia and South Africa. The Forum's biennial Ministerial Meetings are the world's largest gathering of Energy Ministers. Through the Forum and its associated events, IEF Ministers, their officials, energy industry executives, and other experts engage in a dialogue of increasing importance to global energy security and orderly energy transitions. The IEF and the global energy dialogue are promoted by a permanent Secretariat of international staff based in the Diplomatic Quarter of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. For more information visit www.ief.org.

\"]}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-5","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":120778,"name":"August@1X 100","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/august1x-100.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/august1x-100.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3668,"created":"2020-07-30T14:16:00","date":"2020-07-30T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","details":"{\"Main\":[\"

1. International Policy and Market Context

20th Meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee

On 15 July, OPEC + members agreed to ease production adjustments by moving forward with the planned adjustment of 7.7 million barrels a day from the market in August compared with cuts of 9.7 million over the last three months. There will also be additional compensatory adjustments by members who were not able to fulfill earlier commitments.

First Global Inventory Draws

According to the IEA, floating storage of crude oil fell by 34.9 mb in June from its all-time high in May to 176.4 mb. A tightening crude market balance and flatter forward price curves are reducing the incentive to store oil. According to the US EIA, global markets have shifted from a 21 mb/d of oversupply in April to inventory draws in June.

COVID-19 Stimulus and Recovery Measures

To mitigate the economic effects of COVID-19, several countries are proposing a range of measures including green stimulus packages that promote sustainable energy production and policy support for renewables. This also includes additional investments in electric and hydrogen vehicles.

EU Hydrogen Strategy

On 8 July, the European Commission unveiled its hydrogen strategy to help the EU achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. The aim of the strategy is to boost and gradually decarbonise hydrogen production. This will be made possible by the rapid decline in the cost of renewable energy and acceleration of technology developments. This “green” hydrogen can have several applications in overall decarbonisation efforts. (See IEF Insight Brief on The Role of Hydrogen in Sustainable Growth).

2. Key Points

2.1 Demand

Both the IEA and OPEC report demand increases in July.

The IEA's world demand assessments increased by 180 kb/d to reach an overall demand decline of -7.93 mb/d – marginally less than last month’s supply decline of -8.11 mb/d.
OPEC's demand forecast also moved up 120 kb/d for an overall demand decline of -8.95 mb/d. The IEA and OPEC estimates for absolute world demand are now 92.09 mb/d and 90.72 mb/d, respectively.

The IEA and OPEC converge on OECD demand decline while diverging slightly on non-OECD decline compared to last month.

The IEA's OECD demand assessment decreased by 20 kb/d for a total demand decline of -4.23 mb/d, while OPEC reports an increase of 270 kb/d for an overall decline of -4.92 mb/d.
The IEA's estimate for non-OECD demand increases by 210 kb/d to reach a total decline of -3.69 mb/d for 2020. OPEC’s estimate decreases by 150 kb/d to reach a demand decline of -4.03 mb/d.
The IEA and OPEC differ by 0.88 kb/d and 0.48 kb/d on absolute non-OECD and OECD demand, respectively.

2.2 Supply

The IEA's overall supply projections move up slightly in July while OPEC reports a marginal drop.

The IEA's July assessment for non-OPEC supply is up by 110 kb/d to reach a total decline of -2.98 mb/d while OPEC’s assessment drops by 30 kb/d for a total decline of -3.26 mb/d. In absolute values, the IEA and OPEC estimate non-OPEC supply at 62.65 mb/d and 61.76 mb/d respectively for 2020.
The IEA reports OECD supply decline at -0.96 mb/d, up by 50 kb/d. OPEC records OECD decline at -1.53 mb/d, an increase of 40 kb/d from last month. In absolute values, the IEA and OPEC estimate OECD supply estimates at 27.61 mb/d and 28.45 mb/d, respectively.

Both the IEA and OPEC report a slight decrease to non-OECD supply in July.

The IEA's supply assessment decreased by 30 kb/d for a total decline of -1.65 mb/d while OPEC revised its assessment up by 60 kb/d to reach -1.54 mb/d
In absolute values, the IEA and OPEC non-OECD supply estimates are 30.27 mb/d mb/d and 31.24 mb/d respectively for 2020.

Both the IEA and OPEC report decreases in OPEC production as OPEC+ production adjustments continued into June including additional voluntary adjustments.

The IEA revised its OPEC production by 1.90 mb/d month-on-month (m-o-m) in June to reach total production of 22.19 mb/d.
OPEC also reported a similar decrease by 1.89 mb/d m-o-m for total production of 22.27 mb/d in June.

2.3 Stocks

The IEA and OPEC continue to report strong alignment on stock figures. The IEA reports OECD stock levels at 3216 mb, which is close to OPEC’s assessment of 3167 mb for OECD stock that is 258.5 mb and 209.5 mb above the five-year average, respectively. The divergence between OPEC and the IEA stands at 49 mb for July. Total US crude inventories (excluding SPR) amount to about 537 mb according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA reports U.S. crude oil inventories are 19 percent above the five-year average for this time of year. OPEC reports US commercial crude stocks at 539 mb that are above the five-year average by about 75 mb.

2.4 Snapshot (mb/d)

3. Global Analysis

3.1 Demand Data

See the graph below for the monthly revisions of IEA and OPEC annual estimates for 2019 and new estimates for 2020 demand.
*monthly estimates rounded to the nearest barrel

Absolute Demand

The IEA's estimate for global demand growth increased to -7.93 mb/d for an absolute demand of 92.09 mb/d in 2020. Although the demand decline has decreased since April, demand in 2020 will continue to depend on the course and extent of COVID-19.
As the traditional driver of demand growth, non-OECD Asia demand has been revised up from -1.81 mb/d to -1.64 mb/d in July according to the IEA.
OPEC's global demand increased slightly for a total decline of -8.95 mb/d in 2020. Absolute demand is below the 100 mb/d mark at 90.72 mb/d.
Global demand is expected to decline by 7.9 mb/d in 2020 and recover by 5.3 mb/d in 2021.

OECD Demand

The IEA reports OECD oil demand decline at -4.23 mb/d, down slightly from last month’s figure of -4.21 mb/d with the Americas comprising most of the decrease at -2.34 mb/d. The IEA anticipates total OECD consumption for 2020 at 43.38 mb/d.
OPEC's demand projection for the OECD region remains the same as last month with a demand decline of -5.19 mb/d with total OECD demand for 2020 at 43.44 mb/d.

Non-OECD Demand

The IEA and OPEC anticipate declines in non-OECD demand for this year at -3.69 mb/d and -4.03 mb/d, respectively. This is driven largely by Asia, Middle East, and the Americas. Total non-OECD demand forecasts average 48.64 mb/d and 47.76 mb/d, respectively.

China Demand

Demand increased in May due to strong refinery runs and a decline in oil product exports according to the IEA. Gasoline rose as well and this trend is expected to continue, however it is dependent on the recurrence of COVID-19 cases. Jet fuel and kerosene consumption continue to fall as international flights to and from China remain limited. Overall demand in 2020 will be 13.5 mb/d but is expected to rise by 710 kb/d in 2021.
According to OPEC, demand showed some recovery in May as compared to April. Vehicle sales rose by 13 percent year-on-year (y-o-y) marking the highest gain since early 2018. Demand for petrochemicals feedstocks, including LPG and naphtha, and oil products such as fuel oil also increased. Overall demand in 2020 will drop by 0.95 mb/d but is expected to recover by 1.10 mb/d in 2021.

India Demand

Indian oil demand was down by 540 kb/d y-o-y in June which was an improvement from May’s decline of 1.05 mb/d y-o-y as reported by the IEA. A re-emergence of COVID-19 is forcing some states to re-impose lockdown measures. Overall, Indian demand is expected to drop by 445 kb/d in 2020 with a recovery by 465 kb/d in 2021.
According to OPEC, India’s oil demand increased by 1.1 mb/d month-on-month (m-o-m) in May due to easing lockdown restrictions and slow economic recovery, but this is dependent on the extent and severity of the COVID-19 outbreak in India. Meanwhile LPG demand is expected to rise in 2020 due to growth in residential gas demand while gasoline and diesel are projected to decline. Overall demand for 2020 will decline by 0.54 mb/d in 2020 and recover by 0.74 mb/d in 2021.

3.2 Supply Data

See the graph below for the monthly revisions of IEA and OPEC annual estimates for 2019 and new estimates for 2020 supply.
*monthly estimates rounded to the nearest barrel.

Non-OPEC Supply

The IEA forecasts non-OPEC supply at 62.65 mb/d with a supply decline of -2.98 mb/d for 2020, an uptick of 110 kb/d compared to last month. In 2021, non-OPEC production will see a modest demand recovery of 0.74 mb/d.
OPEC's July assessment of total non-OPEC supply for 2020 stands at 61.76 mb/d. Supply growth decreases by 30 kb/d with a total decline of -3.26 mb/d. Most of the decrease comes from the US (-1.37 mb/d), Russia (-1.13 mb/d), and Canada (-0.43 mb/d). Norway, Brazil, and Guyana are forecast to be the key drivers of growth.

OECD Supply

The IEA forecasts OECD supply decline at -0.96 mb/d for 2020 while OPEC reports a slightly larger decline at -1.53 mb/d with total supply reaching 27.61 mb/d and 28.45 mb/d respectively in 2020.
The IEA's data also shows OECD Americas oil supply declines by -1.27 mb/d to reach 23.43 mb/d in total. OPEC reports a larger decline at -1.84 mb/d with total oil supply reaching 23.90 mb/d in 2020.
The IEA's assessment for OECD Europe supply records an increase by 0.27 mb/d for lower total production of 3.61 mb/d led primarily by Norway. OPEC’s assessment for total OECD Europe production in 2020 is 3.98 mb/d with a growth of 0.27 mb/d.

OPEC Supply

The IEA reports that OPEC production decreased by -1.90 mb/d m-o-m in June to reach total production of 22.19 mb/d as OPEC+ production adjustments continued into June including additional voluntary adjustments.
OPEC reports that total OPEC-13 crude oil production averaged 22.27 mb/d in June according to secondary sources. This is a decrease of -1.89 mb/d m-o-m as production adjustments continue along with additional voluntary adjustments. Crude oil output in June decreased in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Venezuela, UAE, and Kuwait, while production increased in Equatorial Guinea and Libya.

3.3 Stock Data

IEA data shows OECD commercial inventories rose by 81.7 mb m-o-m in May to 3216 mb and are 258.5 mb above the five-year average.
According to OPEC, preliminary data for May showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 29.9 mb m-o-m to 3167mb and are now 209.5 mb above the latest five-year average.
While both organisations report closely aligned data on OECD stocks due to a continuous and reliable data stream and data harmonisation efforts, comprehensive data on stock developments for non-OECD countries is still work in progress.

IEA and JODI inventory data imply crude and product stocks surged by 78.1 mb in May and ~430 mb over the first five months of the year

IEA estimates OECD inventories climbed sharply by 81.7 mb in May to 258.5 mb above the latest 5-year average at 3,216 mb. OPEC estimates a much smaller build in OECD inventories in May with only a 29.9 mb increase to 3,167 mb (210 mb above the five-year average). OPEC estimates smaller builds across all OECD regions with the largest divergence in OECD Asia Pacific (OPEC’s 7.9 mb vs. IEA’s 27.3 mb).
JODI non-OECD* data for May imply crude stocks drew by 16.9 mb and product stocks built by 3.7 mb. Crude draws primarily occurred in China (-6.4 mb), Algeria (-3.5 mb), and Taiwan (-3.5 mb). Product builds in China (6.3 mb) were partially offset by draws in Saudi Arabia (-3.7 mb).
Updated and more complete JODI data for April shows a significant upward revision to preliminary stock change data. Originally, JODI data showed a ~33.8 mb crude and product draw across reporting non-OECD countries. Updated data now shows a 53.5 mb build driven by significant product builds in India.
IEA's OECD and JODI's non-OECD* inventory data imply global crude and product stocks built by 78.1 mb in May and 429.8 mb year-to-date through May. However, it is worth noting a striking divergence in China’s reported crude stock builds in JODI and IEA’s estimate of implied Chinese crude builds. JODI shows China crude stocks drew by 6.4 mb in May and drew by a net 1.9 mb January through May. However, IEA’s crude balance implies a Chinese crude stocks built by a massive 40.6 mb in May and built by a net 220.8 mb January through May.

Explanatory Note

To inform IEF stakeholders on how perspectives on the oil market of both organisations evolve over time regularly, this monthly summary provides:

An overview of key events and initiatives in the international policy and market context.
Key findings and a snapshot overview of data points gained from comparing basic historical data and short-term forecasts of the IEA Oil Market Report and the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
A comparative analysis of oil inventory data reported by JODI, the IEA, OPEC, the US EIA and secondary sources in collaboration with the Rapidan Energy Group.

The International Energy Forum

The IEF is the neutral facilitator of informal, open, informed and continuing global energy dialogue. Covering all six continents, the IEF is unique in that it comprises not only countries of the IEA and OPEC, but also key players including China, India, Mexico, Russia and South Africa. The Forum’s biennial Ministerial Meetings are the world’s largest gathering of Energy Ministers. Through the Forum and its associated events, IEF Ministers, their officials, energy industry executives, and other experts engage in a dialogue of increasing importance to global energy security and orderly energy transitions. The IEF and the global energy dialogue are promoted by a permanent Secretariat of international staff based in the Diplomatic Quarter of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. For more information visit www.ief.org.

\"]}","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-4","link":null,"category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":120779,"name":"July@1X 100","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/july1x-100.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/july1x-100.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3670,"created":"2020-07-02T10:35:00","date":"2020-06-30T00:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","details":"","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-3","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/june-2020-comparative-analysis.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":120777,"name":"June@1X 100","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/june1x-100.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/june1x-100.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3672,"created":"2020-06-02T08:39:00","date":"2020-05-31T01:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","details":"","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-2","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/may-2020-comparative-analysis_final.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":120780,"name":"May@1X 100","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/may1x-100.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/may1x-100.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3674,"created":"2020-05-04T12:07:00","date":"2020-04-30T01:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","details":"","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market-1","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/april-comparative-analysis.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":120781,"name":"April@1X 100","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/april1x-100.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/april1x-100.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3676,"created":"2020-04-06T12:00:00","date":"2020-03-31T01:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","summary":"Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market","details":"","path":"comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/march-2020-comparative-analysis_final.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":120782,"name":"March@1X 100","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/march1x-100.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/march1x-100.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3678,"created":"2020-03-02T08:52:00","date":"2020-02-29T01:00:00","title":"Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - February 2020","summary":"Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - February 2020","details":"","path":"comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-february-2020","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/february-2020-comparative-analysis-final.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":120783,"name":"Februray@1X 100","description":null,"path":"/news/comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings---february-2020/februray1x-100.jpg","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings---february-2020/februray1x-100.jpg","fileExt":"jpg","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3681,"created":"2020-02-16T15:58:00","date":"2020-01-31T00:00:00","title":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - January 2020","summary":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - January 2020","details":"","path":"ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-january-2020","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/january-2020--comparative-analysis.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3682,"created":"2020-01-08T12:02:00","date":"2019-12-31T00:00:00","title":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - December 2019","summary":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - December 2019","details":"","path":"ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-december-2019","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/december-2019--comparative-analysis.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3685,"created":"2019-12-04T07:20:00","date":"2019-11-01T00:00:00","title":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - November 2019","summary":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - November 2019","details":"","path":"ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-november-2019","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/november-2019-comparative-analysis.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3687,"created":"2019-11-10T08:57:00","date":"2019-10-30T00:00:00","title":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - October 2019","summary":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - October 2019","details":"","path":"ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-october-2019","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/october-2019--comparative-analysis.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3689,"created":"2019-10-04T10:47:00","date":"2019-09-29T00:00:00","title":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - September 2019","summary":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - September 2019","details":"","path":"ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-september-2019","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/september-2019--comparative-analysis.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3693,"created":"2019-09-11T10:50:00","date":"2019-08-01T00:00:00","title":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - August 2019","summary":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - August 2019","details":"","path":"ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-august-2019","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-august-2019.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3694,"created":"2019-08-25T11:11:00","date":"2019-07-01T00:00:00","title":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - July 2019","summary":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - July 2019","details":"","path":"ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-july-2019","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-july-2019.pdf.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3695,"created":"2019-07-25T12:46:00","date":"2019-06-01T00:00:00","title":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - June 2019","summary":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - June 2019","details":"","path":"ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-june-2019","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-june-2019.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3696,"created":"2019-07-02T09:40:00","date":"2019-05-01T00:00:00","title":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - May 2019","summary":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - May 2019","details":"","path":"ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-may-2019","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-may-2019.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3697,"created":"2019-05-16T12:00:00","date":"2019-04-01T00:00:00","title":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - April 2019","summary":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - April 2019","details":"","path":"ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-april-2019","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/april-2019--comparative-analysis-final.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":119575,"name":"Comparative-Analysis-Insights","description":null,"path":"/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","fileExt":"png","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3698,"created":"2019-04-17T07:30:00","date":"2019-03-01T00:00:00","title":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - March 2019","summary":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - March 2019","details":"","path":"ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-march-2019","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/march-2019--comparative-analysis.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":119575,"name":"Comparative-Analysis-Insights","description":null,"path":"/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","fileExt":"png","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3700,"created":"2019-04-17T07:29:00","date":"2019-02-01T00:00:00","title":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - February 2019","summary":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - February 2019","details":"","path":"ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-february-2019","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/february-2019--comparative-analysis.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":119575,"name":"Comparative-Analysis-Insights","description":null,"path":"/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","fileExt":"png","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3701,"created":"2019-04-17T07:27:00","date":"2019-01-01T00:00:00","title":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - January 2019","summary":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - January 2019","details":"","path":"ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-january-2019","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/january-2019--comparative-analysis_final.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":119575,"name":"Comparative-Analysis-Insights","description":null,"path":"/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","fileExt":"png","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3702,"created":"2019-01-17T06:24:00","date":"2018-12-31T00:00:00","title":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - December 2018\t","summary":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - December 2018\t","details":"","path":"ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-december-2018\t","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/december-2018-comparative-analysis.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":119575,"name":"Comparative-Analysis-Insights","description":null,"path":"/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","fileExt":"png","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3703,"created":"2018-12-05T09:56:00","date":"2018-11-30T00:00:00","title":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - November 2018\t","summary":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - November 2018\t","details":"","path":"ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-november-2018\t","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/november-2018-comparative-analysis.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":119575,"name":"Comparative-Analysis-Insights","description":null,"path":"/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","fileExt":"png","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3704,"created":"2018-12-04T10:41:00","date":"2018-10-31T00:00:00","title":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - October 2018","summary":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - October 2018","details":"","path":"ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-october-2018","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/october-2018-comparative-analysis.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":119575,"name":"Comparative-Analysis-Insights","description":null,"path":"/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","fileExt":"png","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3705,"created":"2018-10-31T12:22:00","date":"2018-09-30T00:00:00","title":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - September 2018","summary":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - September 2018","details":"","path":"ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-september-2018","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/september-2018-comparative-analysis-final.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":119575,"name":"Comparative-Analysis-Insights","description":null,"path":"/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","fileExt":"png","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3706,"created":"2018-09-06T11:43:00","date":"2018-08-31T00:00:00","title":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - August 2018","summary":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - August 2018","details":"","path":"ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-august-2018","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/august-2018-comparative-analysis.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":119575,"name":"Comparative-Analysis-Insights","description":null,"path":"/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","fileExt":"png","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3707,"created":"2018-08-01T07:45:00","date":"2018-07-31T00:00:00","title":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - July 2018","summary":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - July 2018","details":"","path":"ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-july-2018","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/ief-july-2018-comparative-analysis.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":119575,"name":"Comparative-Analysis-Insights","description":null,"path":"/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","fileExt":"png","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3708,"created":"2018-07-04T11:12:00","date":"2018-06-01T00:00:00","title":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - June 2018","summary":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - June 2018","details":"","path":"ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-june-2018","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/june-2018-comparative-analysis_final.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":119575,"name":"Comparative-Analysis-Insights","description":null,"path":"/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","fileExt":"png","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3709,"created":"2018-06-27T12:51:00","date":"2018-05-01T00:00:00","title":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - May 2018","summary":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - May 2018","details":"","path":"ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-may-2018","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/may-2018-comparative-analysis_final.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":119575,"name":"Comparative-Analysis-Insights","description":null,"path":"/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","fileExt":"png","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3718,"created":"2018-06-27T12:48:00","date":"2018-04-01T00:00:00","title":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - April 2018","summary":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - April 2018","details":"","path":"ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-april-2018","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/april-2018-comparative-analysis_final.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":119575,"name":"Comparative-Analysis-Insights","description":null,"path":"/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","fileExt":"png","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3719,"created":"2018-06-27T12:43:00","date":"2018-03-01T00:00:00","title":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - March 2018","summary":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - March 2018","details":"","path":"ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-march-2018","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/march-2018-comparative-analysis-rev.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":119575,"name":"Comparative-Analysis-Insights","description":null,"path":"/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","fileExt":"png","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3720,"created":"2018-06-27T13:02:00","date":"2018-02-01T00:00:00","title":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - February 2018","summary":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - February 2018","details":"","path":"ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-february-2018","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/february-2018-comparative-analysis.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":119575,"name":"Comparative-Analysis-Insights","description":null,"path":"/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","fileExt":"png","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3721,"created":"2018-08-01T07:50:00","date":"2018-01-31T00:00:00","title":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - January 2018\t","summary":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - January 2018\t","details":"","path":"ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-january-2018\t","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-january-2018.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":119575,"name":"Comparative-Analysis-Insights","description":null,"path":"/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","fileExt":"png","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3722,"created":"2018-02-01T06:38:00","date":"2017-12-01T00:00:00","title":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - December 2017","summary":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - December 2017","details":"","path":"ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-december-2017","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-december-2017-fin.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":119575,"name":"Comparative-Analysis-Insights","description":null,"path":"/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","fileExt":"png","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3726,"created":"2017-12-01T08:39:00","date":"2017-11-01T00:00:00","title":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - November 2017","summary":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - November 2017","details":"","path":"ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-november-2017","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-november-2017.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[{"id":119575,"name":"Comparative-Analysis-Insights","description":null,"path":"/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","type":"i","url":null,"filePath":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/comparative-analysis-insights.png","fileExt":"png","tags":[]}],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3727,"created":"2017-12-01T08:40:00","date":"2017-10-01T00:00:00","title":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - October 2017","summary":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings","details":"","path":"ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-october-2017","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-october-2017.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]},{"id":3728,"created":"2017-12-01T08:42:00","date":"2017-09-30T00:00:00","title":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - September 2017","summary":"IEF Comparative Analysis of Key Oil Market Findings - September 2017","details":"","path":"ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-september-2017","link":"/_resources/files/news/analysis-reports/ief-comparative-analysis-of-key-oil-market-findings-september-2017.pdf","category":"Comparative Analysis","files":[],"tags":[{"number":2,"name":"News > Comparative Analysis"}]}],"params":{"categoryId":148,"tagsIncludeAll":true,"start":1,"end":2000,"orderBy":"Date","orderDir":"d","tags":[],"extra":null},"meta":{"categoryName":"Comparative Analysis"},"totalMatches":102}; _bs.onloadAdd("_bs.reportslist.init(rptdta, \"reportslist\")");

IEF Comparative Analysis

Monthly Comparative Analysis

Publication Dates 2026

Previous reports

Summary and Oil Market Context

Demand

Supply

Summary of 2024-2026 Balances

Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions

Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

Evolution of 2025 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts

Summary of 2026 Balances and Revisions

Evolution of 2026 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

Evolution of 2026 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts

Key Charts

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Contents

Summary and Oil Market Context

Demand

Supply

Summary of 2024-2026 Balances

Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions

Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

Evolution of 2025 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts

Summary of 2026 Balances and Revisions

Evolution of 2026 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

Evolution of 2026 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts

Key Charts

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Contents

Summary and Oil Market Context

Demand

Supply

Summary of 2024-2026 Balances

Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions

Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

Evolution of 2025 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts

Summary of 2026 Balances and Revisions

Evolution of 2026 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

Evolution of 2026 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts

Key Charts

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Contents

Summary and Oil Market Context

Demand

Supply

Summary of 2024-2026 Balances

Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions

Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

Evolution of 2025 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts

Summary of 2026 Balances and Revisions

Evolution of 2026 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

Evolution of 2026 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts

Key Charts

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Contents

Summary and Oil Market Context

Demand

Supply

Summary of 2024-2026 Balances

Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions

Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

Evolution of 2025 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts

Summary of 2026 Balances and Revisions

Evolution of 2026 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

Evolution of 2026 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts

Key Charts

Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Contents

Summary and Oil Market Context

Demand

Supply

Summary of 2024-2026 Balances

Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions

Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

Evolution of 2025 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts

Summary of 2026 Balances and Revisions

Evolution of 2026 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

Evolution of 2026 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts

Key Charts