The IEF Secretary General was honoured to welcome Professor Masakazu Toyoda, CEO and the Chairman of the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ) to the IEF headquarters today to present an IEF Lecture based on the recently released "IEEJ Energy Outlook 2018 - Prospects and Challenges Toward 2050".
Professor Toyoda’s presentation (available for download below) shared views on topics ranging from current market trends, to scenarios for energy demand and potential future energy market pathways. The potential for peak oil demand, and long-term (toward 2050) climate change issues were also addressed during the lecture.
The IEEJ outlook foresees that based on current energy market trends, energy demand will increase and its centre of gravity will shift towards Southern Asia, with two thirds of the growth expected to come from non-OECD Asian countries. The IEEJ expects that three quarters of the demand will be accounted for by electricity generation and transportation fuels. The high dependence on fossil fuels is expected to continue with natural gas projected to account for 60% of fossil fuel growth. Carbon emissions are projected to increase 34% by 2050.
Professor Toyoda noted that one IEEJ study indicates the potential for new technologies to bring about a 13% reduction in energy consumption by 2050. Although this scenario implies that the share of fossil fuels in the mix would drop to 68% compared with 78% in the reference scenario, it still indicates an expectation of on-going high-level dependence on fossil fuels.
In the quest to deliver a low-carbon future, Professor Toyoda noted that the key to successful cost reduction, development and deployment of innovative technologies is international cooperation.