Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Summary and Oil Market Context

Demand

The EIA has revised its global demand growth projections, increasing its 2024 year-over-year (y/y) estimate by 0.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) to reach 1.0 mb/d, while simultaneously adjusting its 2025 demand growth estimates downward by approximately 0.1 mb/d to 1.2 mb/d y/y. India emerges as a pivotal driver of this growth, accounting for a quarter of the total global consumption growth in both years. Despite these adjustments, the EIA notes that the projected growth rates for 2024 and 2025 remain below the 10-year average of 1.5 mb/d annual growth.

OPEC has revised its global oil demand growth estimate downward by approximately 0.1 mb/d to 1.8 mb/d for 2024 y/y. Similarly, OPEC has lowered its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast by 0.1 mb/d to 1.5 mb/d y/y. These updated adjustments are attributed to the integration of actual data gathered. Despite these revisions, OPEC's forecast remains significantly higher than the projections provided by the IEA and EIA for 2024, exceeding them by more than 0.8 mb/d.

The IEA has kept its global demand growth forecasts unchanged for the full years of 2024 and 2025. However, year-on-year growth forecasts have been revised upward by approximately 0.1 for 2024, based on revisions to the 2023 data.

Though the divergence in global demand growth forecasts across the three agencies has narrowed, differences for 2024 still reach 0.9 mb/d y/y and 0.5 mb/d for 2025 y/y.

Supply

OPEC has retained its projections for non-Declaration of Cooperation (non-DoC or non-OPEC plus) oil supply growth, expecting an increase of approximately 1.3 mb/d in 2024 and 1.2 mb/d in 2025. This sustained growth trajectory is predominantly attributed to the robust production capabilities of the US and Canada in both forecast periods.

The EIA has revised its projections for non-OPEC supply growth upward by 0.1 mb/d y/y to 0.8 mb/d, with a further rise in 2025 by 0.2 mb/d to 1.6 mb/d y/y. The EIA has also increased its non-DoC supply growth forecast by approximately 0.1 mb/d for the full year of 2024 and by 0.2 mb/d for the full year of 2025. The EIA's short-term supply forecasts indicate that US crude oil production will grow by 0.3 mb/d to 13.2 mb/d in 2024 y/y and by another 0.3 mb/d, reaching 13.5 mb/d in 2025 y/y.

The IEA has kept its supply growth forecasts for non-DoC unchanged for both 2024 and 2025 y/y. For non-OPEC, it has maintained its supply growth forecasts for 2024 y/y and revised the 2025 growth forecasts upward by 0.1 mb/d y/y.

The divergence in short-term non-DoC supply growth forecasts among these three entities is projected to reach 0.2 mb/d y/y for 2024 and 0.4 mb/d y/y for 2025.

Summary of 2023-2025 Balances

• OPEC has adjusted its global oil demand growth projections downward for the fourth successive month, impacting both 2024 and 2025 outlooks. The organization has reduced its 2024 growth forecast by approximately 0.1 mb/d to 1.8 mb/d y/y. Similarly, for 2025, OPEC has lowered its demand growth estimate by 0.1 mb/d, resulting in a new projection of 1.5 mb/d y/y, down from the earlier prediction of 1.6 mb/d.
• The disparity in global oil demand growth estimates among the three agencies has narrowed, with a variation of less than 0.9 mb/d expected for y/y figures in 2024 and 0.5 mb/d in 2025 y/y.
• The IEA has kept its forecast for global demand growth for the full years of 2024 and 2025 unchanged.

• The EIA has revised its global demand forecasts upward by 0.1 mb/d for the full year 2024, while it has maintained its forecasts for the full year 2025 unchanged.
• The IEA has kept its forecasts for demand growth in both OECD and non-OECD approximately unchanged for 2024 and 2025 y/y.
• OPEC has adjusted its projections for non-OECD oil demand growth downward for both the full year 2024 and 2025 by 0.1 mb/d and 0.2 mb/d, respectively.

Summary of 2024 Balances and Revisions

• OPEC has adjusted its global demand growth forecast downward by 0.1 mb/d to 1.8 mb/d y/y, down from 1.9 mb/d in last month's revision.
• The EIA and IEA have revised their global demand growth forecasts upward by approximately 0.1 mb/d y/y.

Evolution of 2024 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

• OPEC has revised its projections for global oil demand growth in 2024 for the fourth consecutive month, reducing it by approximately 0.1 mb/d based on newly received data.
• The EIA has adjusted its global demand growth forecast upward by approximately 0.1 mb/d.
• The IEA has increased its global demand forecasts for 2024 y/y by approximately 0.1 mb/d, driven by a modest rise in demand from both non-OECD and OECD.

Evolution of 2024 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

• The EIA has raised its forecast for non-OPEC supply growth by 0.1 mb/d y/y.
• The IEA, OPEC, and EIA continue to display strong alignment regarding US supply growth in recent months compared to their estimates at the beginning of this year, with the gap declining from more than half a million barrels per day to less than 0.1 mb/d.

Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions

• OPEC revised its forecasts for global demand growth down by 0.2 mb/d for the full year in 2025, driven by a reduction in non-OECD demand growth.
• The EIA has revised its global non-OPEC supply growth forecast upward by approximately 0.3 mb/d for the full year of 2025.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

• The EIA has revised its global demand growth forecast downward for the fourth consecutive month by approximately 0.1 mb/d y/y to 1.2 mb/d y/y.
• OPEC has adjusted its global oil demand growth forecast downward by about 0.1 mb/d y/y.
• The IEA has maintained its global demand growth for 2025 unchanged y/y.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

• EIA and IEA both forecast a rise in non-OPEC supply growth, but the gap remains more than 200 tb/d.
• The three agencies have kept their US supply growth almost unchanged.

Key Charts