Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Summary and Oil Market Context

Demand

OPEC has maintained its global oil demand growth forecast unchanged in its latest assessment, projecting year-on-year growth of approximately 1.3 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026. Demand in OECD countries is expected to rise modestly by 0.1 mb/d in each year, while non-OECD regions—accounting for the bulk of the growth—are projected to see an increase of 1.2 mb/d annually over the same period.

The EIA has revised its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast upward by 0.1 mb/d compared to the previous month, projecting year-on-year growth of 1.0 mb/d. However, this represents a downward revision of 0.4 mb/d relative to the January 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). For 2026, the EIA anticipates a further deceleration in global demand growth to 0.9 mb/d. Regionally, India’s fuel demand is projected to increase by 0.2 mb/d in 2025 and 0.3 mb/d in 2026, while China’s consumption is projected to rise by 0.2 mb/d in both years.

The IEA forecasts global oil demand growth of 0.7 mb/d y/y in 2025, despite an expected decline in OECD consumption of approximately 120 kb/d. For 2026, the IEA sees global demand growth of 0.8 mb/d y/y. Newly available data released by the IEA also indicate an average annual increase in global oil demand of approximately 0.3 mb/d between 2022 and 2024.

The gap across agencies in global oil demand growth forecasts stands at 0.6 mb/d for 2025 and 0.5 mb/d for 2026, year-on-year.

Supply

OPEC projects a year-on-year growth of 0.9 mb/d in non-Declaration of Cooperation (non-DoC) liquids production and DoC NGLs in 2025, representing a downward revision of 0.1 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment. For 2026, growth is also projected at 0.9 mb/d y/y. The projected supply expansion is primarily driven by the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina in both years.

The EIA projects year-on-year growth of 1.3 mb/d in non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs in 2025, followed by 1.2 mb/d in 2026. For non-DoC supply and DoC NGLs, EIA estimates growth of 1.4 mb/d in 2025—down by 0.1 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment—and projects growth of 1.0 mb/d in 2026.

The IEA has maintained its forecast for non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs growth at 1.4 mb/d year-on-year in 2025, alongside an unchanged estimate of 1.3 mb/d for non-DoC supply and DoC NGLs. For 2026, the IEA projects continued growth of approximately 1.0 mb/d in both non-OPEC and non-DoC supply, representing a downward revision of 0.1 mb/d year-on-year for each category.

Summary of 2024-2026 Balances

• OPEC has maintained its forecast for global oil demand to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) year-on-year in both 2025 and 2026.
• Non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs may grow by 1.3 mb/d and 1.4 mb/d y/y in 2025, according to projections from the EIA and IEA, respectively.

Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions

• OPEC sees global oil demand to grow by 1.3 mb/d year-on-year in 2025, primarily driven by growth in non-OECD countries.
• The IEA has revised its global oil demand growth forecast upward by 0.4 mb/d for the full year.
• The EIA projects non-DoC supply and DoC NGLs to grow by 1.4 mb/d year-on-year in 2025.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

• OPEC maintained its global oil demand growth forecast at 1.3 mb/d y/y this month, following a downward revision in the previous month driven by updated data and expected changes in trade flows.
• The EIA projects global oil demand to grow by approximately 1.0 mb/d y/y in 2025.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

• OPEC reports a further downward revision this month in its non-DoC supply growth, lowering the estimates by around 0.1 mb/d y/y.
• EIA projects non-OPEC supply to grow by 1.2 mb/d y/y in 2025.
• The divergence between OPEC and IEA estimates for non-DoC supply growth is more than 0.4 mb/d.

Summary of 2026 Balances and Revisions

• OPEC projects global oil demand to grow by 1.3 mb/d y/y in 2026.
• The EIA forecasts non-OECD oil demand to grow by 1.0 mb/d in 2026.
• The IEA has revised its third-quarter 2026 forecast upward by 0.6 mb/d.

Evolution of 2026 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

• OPEC has maintained its estimate for global oil demand growth at 1.3 mb/d y/y for the second consecutive month.
• IEA and EIA estimates for non-OECD demand growth show strong alignment.

Evolution of 2026 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

• The EIA maintained its non-DoC supply growth forecast largely unchanged in this month’s assessment.
• The gap between IEA and EIA projections is widening, with a difference of 0.3 mb/d, compared to ~ 0.2 mb/d in the previous revision.

Key Charts