Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market
Tuesday 17 June 2025
Summary and Oil Market Context
Demand
OPEC projects global oil demand to rise by 1.3 mb/d y/y in both 2025 and 2026. Stronger-than-expected economic activity in the first half of 2025, driven by robust performance in India, China, and Brazil, has lifted the global GDP growth forecast to 2.9% for the year. Easing trade tensions, particularly through agreements involving the US and key partners, are expected to reduce uncertainty and support oil consumption in the second half of 2025.
The EIA projects global liquid fuels consumption to increase by 0.8 mb/d in 2025 and 1.1 mb/d in 2026 y/y, with growth concentrated in non-OECD countries. Non-OECD demand is expected to rise by 0.9 mb/d in 2025 and 1.0 mb/d in 2026 y/y, while OECD consumption remains broadly stable over the forecast period.
The IEA forecasts global oil demand to rise by approximately 0.7 mb/d in 2025 y/y, slightly below last month’s estimate due to weaker-than-expected second-quarter deliveries in the United States and China. In 2026, demand growth is also expected to remain around 0.7 mb/d y/y.
A clear divergence persists across agencies, with forecast gaps reaching up to 0.6 mb/d for both 2025 and 2026.
Supply
OPEC projects non-DoC liquids supply and DoC NGLs to grow by approximately 0.9 mb/d year-on-year in 2025, reaching an average of 62.4 mb/d in 2025, led by the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. The 2026 forecast reflects a slight downward revision, with supply expected to increase by 0.9 mb/d to an average of 63.3 mb/d. Angola is anticipated to record the most decline, while the same four countries remain the key drivers of production growth.
The EIA maintains its 2025 growth forecast for non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs at approximately 1.3 mb/d, reaching a total of 77.3 mb/d—unchanged from last month’s assessment. For 2026, the EIA has revised its growth forecast downward to 0.7 mb/d, bringing the total to 78.1 mb/d. It also projects non-DoC supply and DoC NGLs to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025 and 0.7 mb/d in 2026, y/y.
The IEA forecasts non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs to increase by 1.5 mb/d in 2025 and 1.1 mb/d in 2026, year-on-year. For non-DoC supply and DoC NGLs, the IEA projects growth of approximately 1.3 mb/d in 2025 and 1.0 mb/d in 2026.
Summary of 2024-2026 Balances
- OPEC maintains its projection of a 1.3 mb/d year-on-year increase in global oil demand for both 2025 and 2026.
- The EIA projects year-on-year growth in non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs of 1.3 mb/d in 2025 and 0.7 mb/d y/y in 2026.
- The IEA forecasts global demand growth of 0.7 mb/d y/y/ in both 2025 and 2026.
Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions
- OPEC maintains a stronger outlook for global oil demand, projecting year-on-year growth of 1.3 mb/d in 2025, compared to 0.7 mb/d from the IEA and 0.8 mb/d from the EIA.
- Both the IEA and EIA project robust supply growth from non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs, with increases of 1.3-1.5 mb/d year-on-year in 2025.
Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts
- OPEC maintains the most optimistic outlook for 2026 oil demand growth, despite a narrowing range among agencies.
- The EIA revised its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast downward by ~0.2 mb/d, bringing the estimate to 0.8 mb/d y/y.
Evolution of 2025 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts
- OPEC has maintained its 2025 non-DoC supply growth forecast at 0.8 mb/d year-on-year.
- The IEA forecasts US supply growth at 0.5 mb/d, nearly double the EIA’s estimate.
Summary of 2026 Balances and Revisions
- OPEC forecasts global oil demand at 106.4 mb/d in 2026, with year-on-year growth of 1.3 mb/d.
- The IEA projects a 0.2 mb/d contraction in OECD demand, while OPEC and EIA show flat to modest growth.
Evolution of 2026 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts
- Global demand growth forecasts stabilize, with OPEC maintaining the highest outlook.
- The EIA revised its 2026 projections upward by ~0.1 mb/d, while the IEA and OPEC showed stable forecasts with no significant changes.
Evolution of 2026 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts
- The EIA revised down its supply growth forecasts significantly.
- The three agencies are now showing greater convergence around non-DoC supply growth.
