Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Summary and Oil Market Context

Demand

OPEC projects global oil demand to rise by 1.3 mb/d y/y in 2025, driven predominantly by increased consumption of transportation fuels such as jet fuel and gasoline. The growth is expected to be regionally uneven, with OECD economies contributing a marginal 0.1 mb/d and non-OECD countries accounting for the remaining 1.2 mb/d. The 2026 forecast remains unchanged, with a further 1.3 mb/d y/y increase anticipated, sustained by rising demand for mobility and petrochemical feedstocks, particularly across emerging markets.

This month, the EIA’s assessment indicates continued growth in global liquid fuels consumption, with demand rising by 0.8 mb/d in 2025 and 1.1 mb/d in 2026 y/y. This growth is driven almost entirely by non-OECD economies, where demand is expected to increase by 0.9 mb/d in 2025 and 1.0 mb/d in 2026. In contrast, OECD oil demand is set to decline modestly by 0.1 mb/d in 2025 and remain broadly unchanged the following year. The acceleration in non-OECD consumption is concentrated in Asia, with India and China contributing the largest increments to 0.5 mb/d and 0.4 mb/d, respectively, in both years.

The IEA projects global oil demand to increase by 0.7 mb/d in 2025 y/y (its slowest pace of growth since 2009, excluding the exceptional decline during the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic). The deceleration is particularly evident between the first and second quarters of 2025, with demand growth easing from 1.1 mb/d to just 550 kb/d, driven by subdued consumption in emerging markets. By 2026, global oil demand expects to rise by 720 kb/d, reaching a total of 104.4 mb/d.

Agency projections continue to diverge, with discrepancies in global demand forecasts reaching as high as 0.6 mb/d for both 2025 and 2026.

Supply

OPEC projects non-DoC liquids production to rise by 0.8 mb/d in 2025, reaching 54.0 mb/d, driven by the U.S., Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. Supply is expected to grow by another 0.7 mb/d in 2026 to 54.7 mb/d. DoC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d annually, reaching 8.6 mb/d in 2025 and 8.8 mb/d in 2026. OPEC NGLs are also set to rise by 130 tb/d in 2025 and 150 tb/d in 2026.

The EIA forecasts a notable acceleration in global liquid fuels production, with output expected to increase by 1.8 mb/d in 2025 and a further 1.1 mb/d in 2026 y/y. This expansion is predominantly driven by producers outside the OPEC+ alliance, led by the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana. Non-OPEC+ supply and OPEC NGLs is projected to rise by 1.4 mb/d in 2025 and an additional 1.0 mb/d in 2026.

The IEA forecasts global oil supply from non-OPEC producers and OPEC NGLs to reach 77.3 mb/d in 2025 and rise further to 78.5 mb/d in 2026, reflecting year-on-year increases of 1.5 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively. Supply growth remains broad-based but moderate, with upward revisions in the latter half of 2025 and steady quarterly gains throughout 2026, from 78.2 mb/d in Q1 to 78.7 mb/d by year-end. In parallel, non-DoC supply and DoC NGLs are projected to increase from 62.8 mb/d in 2025 to 63.9 mb/d in 2026.

Summary of 2024-2026 Balances

• OPEC maintains a robust global demand outlook for 2025 and 2026, forecasting y/y growth of 1.3 mb/d in both years, consistently above IEA and EIA estimates.
• The IEA projects global oil demand to rise modestly, reaching 103.7 mb/d in 2025 and 104.4 mb/d in 2026, with growth driven entirely by non-OECD countries.
• The EIA sees global oil demand to grow by 0.8 mb/d in 2025 and accelerate to 1.1 mb/d in 2026, reaching 104.6 mb/d.

Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions

• The IEA sees steady global oil demand growth of 0.7 mb/d in 2025 y/y, driven entirely by rising consumption in non-OECD economies.
• OPEC expects non-DoC supply and DoC NGLs to grow by 0.9 mb/d y/y.
• EIA projects non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs to rise by 1.4 mb/d in 2025 y/y, reaching 77.5 mb/d.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

• OPEC continues to hold the most optimistic outlook for global oil demand growth, despite recent downward revisions to its projections.
• Both EIA and IEA maintain a flat-to-slightly-negative outlook for OECD demand.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts

• Both IEA and EIA revise their 2025 non-OPEC supply growth slightly upward, converging around 1.4 mb/d
• IEA’s forecasts for US supply growth remain relatively stable compared to last month’s assessment.
• OPEC has revised down its 2025 non-DoC supply growth forecast by over 0.3 mb/d since early 2025.

Summary of 2026 Balances and Revisions

• OPEC maintains the highest forecast for 2026 global oil demand at 106.4 mb/d, with non-OECD demand contributing 1.2 mb/d to overall growth y/y, well above IEA and EIA estimates.
• IEA’s non-DoC supply and DoC NGLs are projected to grow by 1.1 mb/d in 2026.
• EIA expects non-OECD demand to expand steadily, increasing by 1.0 mb/d in 2026, while OECD demand remains flat.

Evolution of 2026 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

• OPEC maintains the highest and most stable global demand growth forecast for 2026.
• IEA keeps its global demand growth near 0.7 mb/d, with OECD demand declining by 0.2 mb/d.
• The EIA maintains its global demand forecast above 1.0 mb/d, supported by stable non-OECD growth.

Evolution of 2026 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts

• EIA raises its non-DoC supply growth forecast this month to around 1.0 mb/d y/y.
• IEA revises non-OPEC supply growth upward to 1.0 mb/d y/y this month.
• OPEC's non-DoC supply growth forecast has remained relatively stable.

Key Charts