Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Summary and Oil Market Context

Demand

OPEC maintains its global demand growth outlook unchanged at 1.3 mb/d year-on-year this year and approximately 1.4 mb/d in 2026. For 2025, OECD oil demand, OPEC expects this to grow by 0.1 mb/d, while OPEC projects non-OECD demand to rise by a more substantial 1.2 mb/d. In 2026, OECD demand is again forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d, driven primarily by OECD Americas, whereas non-OECD demand is set to expand by more than 1.2 mb/d, led by Other Asia, China, and India.

The EIA modestly raises its full-year global demand growth forecast by 0.1 mb/d for both 2025 and 2026, compared with last month’s estimate. The agency now expects global liquid fuels consumption to increase by 1.0 mb/d in 2025 and 1.1 mb/d in 2026. Growth is driven predominantly by non-OECD countries, where the EIA projects consumption to rise by 1.1 mb/d in 2025 and 1.0 mb/d in 2026. In contrast, the EIA expects OECD demand to decline by 0.1 mb/d in 2025, before registering a modest 0.1 mb/d increase in 2026.

The IEA revises its global demand growth forecast upward by 0.1 mb/d year-on-year for both 2025 and 2026, projecting an increase of 0.8 mb/d this year and a further 0.8 mb/d next year. These adjustments are driven by updated estimates for the third and fourth quarters of this year and for 2026, reflecting stronger demand in China, the United States, and Nigeria.

Forecasts from leading agencies continue to diverge, with global demand estimates varying by about 0.5 mb/d in 2025 and 0.6 mb/d in 2026.

Supply

OPEC projects non-DoC liquids production and DoC NGLs to increase by about 1.0 mb/d in 2025, reaching an average of 62.7 mb/d, with growth led by the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. This represents a modest upward revision of 0.1 mb/d from the previous assessment, reflecting updated historical data. In 2026, OPEC expects non-DoC liquids and DoC NGLs output to rise by 0.8 mb/d, averaging 63.5 mb/d, with Brazil, Canada, the United States, and Argentina remaining the principal drivers of growth.

The EIA revises its full-year growth outlook for non-DoC supply and DoC NGLs upward by 0.1 mb/d in 2025 and 0.2 mb/d in 2026 relative to last month’s assessment. The agency now expects global liquid fuels supply to rise by 2.8 mb/d in 2025 and an additional 1.4 mb/d in 2026. Growth remains highly concentrated, with Brazil, the United States, Guyana, and Canada together accounting for 75% of the increase in 2025 (1.5 mb/d) and 67% in 2026 (0.8 mb/d).

The IEA revises its non-DoC supply and DoC NGLs upward by 0.2 mb/d y/y this year and 0.1 mb/d in 2026, relative to last month’s estimates. The IEA projects global oil supply to rise by 3.1 mb/d this year, reaching 106.3 mb/d, and by a further 2.5 mb/d in 2026. In 2025, supply growth is driven by a 1.4 mb/d increase from OPEC+ and 1.7 mb/d from non-OPEC+ producers, with both groups expected to raise output by 1.3 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively, in 2026. The upward revision in global supply growth reflects stronger production from Middle Eastern OPEC+ members and key non-OPEC+ producers such as Brazil, the United States, and Canada.

Summary of 2024-2026 Balances

• The gap in global demand forecasts across agencies reaches 0.5 mb/d in 2025 and 0.6 mb/d in 2026.
• EIA expects global demand to grow by 1.0 mb/d y/y this year and an additional 1.1 mb/d in 2026, reaching 105.2 mb/d.
• OPEC maintains its global demand growth forecasts unchanged from last month’s estimates.

Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions

• IEA revises its global demand outlook upward this month by 0.1 mb/d year-on-year.
• EIA adjusts the first three quarters of this year upward by 0.2 mb/d, driven by stronger non-OECD demand.
• OPEC keeps its global demand growth forecast at 1.3 mb/d, with 0.1 mb/d from OECD and 1.2 mb/d from non-OECD regions.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

• IEA adjusts its global demand growth forecast upward by 0.1 mb/d, driven by stronger non-OECD demand
• OPEC maintains its global demand growth estimates steady at 1.3 mb/d y/y.
• The EIA’s global demand outlook remains above all its demand-growth revisions made over the past six months.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts

• IEA raises its non-OPEC growth estimate this month to 1.7 mb/d, yet it remains below last year’s projection.
• EIA expects non-OPEC supply growth to reach 2 mb/d for the first time.
• OPEC marginally updates its non-DoC supply growth upward to 0.9 mb/d year-on-year.

Summary of 2026 Balances and Revisions

• OPEC keeps its global demand growth forecast at 1.4 mb/d.
• The EIA estimates OECD demand will rise by 0.1 mb/d y/y, while non-OECD demand increases by 1.0 mb/d.
• IEA revises its non-OECD demand growth estimate upward by 0.3 mb/d for the second half of 2026.

Evolution of 2026 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

• OPEC has maintained its global demand growth forecast at 1.4 mb/d for four consecutive months.
• EIA has revised its global demand growth forecasts back to the levels it expected at the beginning of the year at 1 mb/d y/y.
• IEA raises its global demand growth forecast to around 0.8 mb/d y/y, the highest estimate so far.

Evolution of 2026 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts

• OPEC expects non-DoC supply growth to be roughly half of the IEA and EIA estimates.
• IEA and EIA estimates for non-OPEC supply growth are now closely aligned.
• IEA and EIA projects 1.2 mb/d year-on-year non-DoC supply growth in 2026.

Key Charts