Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Summary and Oil Market Context

Demand

OPEC keeps its assessment of global oil demand growth unchanged, holding its outlook at 1.3 mb/d year-on-year for 2025 and about 1.4 mb/d for 2026. For 2025, OPEC expects OECD demand to increase by 0.1 mb/d, while non-OECD consumption is projected to rise by a stronger 1.2 mb/d. In 2026, OECD demand is forecast to grow by 0.2 mb/d, driven mainly by OECD Americas, whereas non-OECD demand is anticipated to expand by more than 1.2 mb/d, led by Other Asia, China, and India.

The EIA estimates global liquid fuel demand to increase by 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025 y/y, an upward revision of 0.1 mb/d y/y from last month’s outlook. For 2026, the EIA projects a further rise of 1.2 mb/d. This expansion is driven largely by non-OECD countries, particularly in Asia: China’s liquid fuel demand grows by 0.25 mb/d in 2025 and 0.3 mb/d in 2026, while India adds roughly 70 tb/d this year and a further 0.17 mb/d next year. Relative to last month’s estimates, the EIA revises its OECD demand growth upward by 0.1 mb/d y/y in both 2025 and 2026.

The IEA projects global oil demand to increase by more than 0.8 mb/d in 2025 y/y, supported by improving macroeconomic conditions and other factors. For 2026, the IEA forecasts an additional 0.1 mb/d increase, compared with a similar upward adjustment last month, bringing projected demand growth next year to 0.9 mb/d year-on-year. The IEA expects almost all demand growth in both 2025 and 2026 to originate from non-OECD countries. OECD demand growth remains unchanged for the full year 2025, while the 2026 outlook is revised upward by 0.1 mb/d.

Differences across major agency forecasts remain notable, with global demand estimates differing by roughly 0.5 mb/d for both 2025 and 2026.

Supply

OPEC forecasts non-DoC liquids production and DoC NGLs to rise by about 1.0 mb/d in 2025, bringing output to an average of 62.8 mb/d. Growth is expected to be driven by the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. For 2026, OPEC projects a further rise of 0.8 mb/d in non-DoC liquid production and DoC NGLs, with average production reaching 63.5 mb/d, again led by Brazil, Canada, the United States, and Argentina.

The EIA forecasts global liquid fuels production to increase by 3.0 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025 and by more than 1.2 mb/d in 2026, driven primarily by the United States, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada. Together, these producers account for more than half of global supply growth in 2025 (around 1.5 mb/d) and roughly 60% of the increase in 2026 (about 0.8 mb/d). Brazil and Guyana lead the 2025 expansion as new offshore projects come online, with additional developments already under way.

The IEA expects growth in non-OPEC oil supply and OPEC NGLs to decline by 0.1 mb/d year-on-year, with total additions reaching 1.8 mb/d in 2025 and 1.5 mb/d in 2026. At the same time, the IEA projects non-DoC supply and DoC NGLs to expand by around 1.8 mb/d y/y in 2025 and approximately 1.4 mb/d y/y in 2026, remaining relatively unchanged from last month’s assessment.

Summary of 2024-2026 Balances

• The EIA adjusts its global demand growth forecast upward by 0.1 mb/d y/y for 2025 and by ~0.2 mb/d for 2026 relative to last month’s assessment.
• The IEA revises its global demand growth slightly upward this month for both 2025 and 2026.
• OPEC keeps its global demand growth forecasts unchanged from last month’s assessment.

Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions

• OPEC maintains its global demand growth forecast at 1.3 mb/d y/y, comprising 0.1 mb/d from OECD and 1.2 mb/d from non-OECD countries.
• The IEA projects quarterly demand growth in 3Q25 to be more than twice that of 2Q25.
• The EIA revises its global demand growth for the full year downward by 0.2 mb/d.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

• The EIA slightly revises OECD demand growth upward by 0.1 mb/d y/y, relative to last month’s estimates.
• The IEA reports rising global demand growth for the second consecutive month.
• OPEC keeps its global demand growth estimate unchanged for the ninth consecutive month.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts

• The IEA and EIA show greater alignment in their US supply growth estimates this month.
• The EIA maintains its non-DoC supply growth estimate at around 2 mb/d y/y, following two months of sharp increases.
• The divergence between OPEC’s estimates of non-DoC supply growth and those of the EIA exceeds 1 mb/d y/y.

Summary of 2026 Balances and Revisions

• The EIA revises its OECD demand growth upward by 0.1 mb/d y/y.
• The IEA adjusts its global demand growth estimates upward for all quarters.
• OPEC maintains its global demand growth forecast at 1.4 mb/d.

Evolution of 2026 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

• The EIA adjusts its global demand growth upward by ~0.2 mb/d y/y.
• The IEA projects increasing demand growth in both OECD and non-OECD countries.
• OPEC has maintained its global demand growth forecast at 1.4 mb/d for five consecutive months.

Evolution of 2026 Annual Supply Growth Forecasts

• The IEA estimates US supply growth at nearly three times the level estimated by OPEC.
• The EIA projects a decline in non-OPEC growth, following three consecutive months of positive revisions.
• The IEA and EIA show a difference of more than 0.1 mb/d in their non-OPEC supply growth estimates, following a month of closely aligned projections.

Key Charts