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Global Oil Demand Climbs in October While Crude Production Falls - JODI Data

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia – Global oil demand climbed counter-seasonally in October by 75 kb/d and was 1.7 mb/d higher than a year ago, according to new data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI). Demand growth was driven primarily by gains in China, the US, and India.

Meanwhile, global crude production declined by 228 kb/d in October led by losses in Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the US.

While markets tightened compared to September, global inventories of crude and refined products climbed counter seasonally by 37.9 mb. Global inventories remain 406 mb below the five-year average.

Global demand was at 99 percent of pre-COVID levels in October, while crude production was at 96 percent of pre-pandemic levels.

The data showed that Russian oil production fell by 107 kb/d to 9.88 mb/d and is down 378 kb/d from the levels prior to its invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russian gas production increased slightly for the third consecutive month but was still more than 22 percent below March levels and at a five-year seasonal low.

EU+UK natural gas inventories increased by 6.7 bcm in October to stand at 95 percent full at the end of the month.

The JODI oil and gas databases were updated on Monday with more than 54 countries reporting data for the latest month of October 2022. The October data submissions account for more than 70 percent of both global oil demand and crude production.

Highlights for October oil data:

  • Saudi Arabia
    • Crude production fell by 84 kb/d to 10.96 mb/d.
    • Crude exports rose by 52 kb/d to 7.77 mb/d – a 30-month high.
    • Crude inventories rose by 3.9 mb and product inventories fell by 5.2 mb.
  • Russia
    • Crude production fell by 107 kb/d to 9.99 mb/d – a five-month low.
    • Refinery intake rose by 77 kb/d to 5.64 mb/d.
  • China
    • Demand rose by 518 kb/d – a five-month high.
    • Crude imports rose by 368 kb/d to 10.19 mb/d – a five-month high.
    • Total product exports fell by 302 kb/d to 1.02 mb/d.
  • United States
    • Crude production fell by 297 kb/d to 11.97 mb/d.
    • Total product demand rose by 621 kb/d in October and was up 714 kb/d from year-ago levels.
    • Crude oil closing stocks fell by 8.38 mb to the lowest level recorded in JODI.
    • Product closing stocks increased by 26.77 mb.

Highlights for October natural gas data:

  • Natural gas demand rose by 5.8 bcm in October, less than the seasonal average gain of 14.5 bcm. Meanwhile, gas production rebounded in October, increasing 10.6 bcm month-on-month.
  • Russian gas production rose for the third consecutive month but remains at a five-year seasonal low and 22 percent below January levels.
  • EU+UK gas consumption was at a five-year seasonal low in October and inventories rose by 6.7 bcm to stand 95 percent full at the end of the month. The group’s LNG imports were up 50 percent from a year ago.
  • Total gas inventories rose by 11.7 bcm month-on-month and exceeded the five-year average for the first time since February 2021.

The full JODI oil and gas database will be available today at noon BST and can be viewed at jodidb.org or jodidata.org. The next update will be on Thursday, January 19th with data through November 2022. 

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