JODI Data Year in Review - 2021
In 2021, JODI data indicates that neither global demand for oil products nor global crude oil production levels returned to their pre-pandemic 2019 annual average levels.
While not a complete representation of global crude oil production, JODI does have full crude oil production data from 30 countries, representing two thirds of supply. Crude oil production from those 30 countries in 2021 was 3.6 million b/d lower (-8.2%) than the pre-pandemic 2019 annual average. However, the annual average comparison hides data from the year-end showing continued increases in production relative to 2019 levels. In December 2021, crude oil production in these 30 countries was 42.4 million b/d, 2.6 million b/d (6%) more than in December 2020.
Aggregate oil product demand in 50 countries, representing approximately 70% of global demand, was still 4% below pre-pandemic 2019 annual average levels in 2021, despite a significant recovery. In 2019, demand for oil products in these 50 countries averaged 72.8 million b/d, and fell to 66.9 million b/d in 2020 (-8% vs. 2019 annual average) as the pandemic hit transportation demand and overall economic growth. In the second half of 2021, as vaccines became more readily available and vaccination rates grew, oil product demand began to recover in earnest. In November 2021, aggregate oil product demand in these 50 countries came within 36,000 b/d of the 2019 annual average level, but then fell back to 1.2 million b/d below in December.
JODI data shows there were still significant variations in demand recovery amongst different petroleum products last year. Demand for liquefied petroleum gas (propane and butane) in 2021 across 40 countries exceeded 2019 demand levels, at 6.8 million b/d compared with 6.5 million b/d, respectively. Jet fuel consumption was the outlier in terms of recovery compared with pre-pandemic levels, with 2021 consumption across 32 countries 28% below the 2019 annual average at 2.7 million b/d. As of December 2021, jet-fuel consumption remained 28%, or 1.2 million b/d, below December 2019 levels, but 888,000 b/d (39%) above December 2020.
Gasoline and diesel demand, the two largest petroleum product categories, were still below 2019 levels on an annual basis, but showed significant recovery toward the end of 2021. Gasoline demand across 46 countries in 2021 was 18.3 million b/d, 2.4% below the 2019 annual average of 18.7 million b/d. However, by December 2021, gasoline demand across these countries was 19.0 million b/d, an increase of 14% compared with December 2020. Diesel demand across 45 countries showed similar patterns in 2021, with demand averaging 18.8 million b/d compared with 19.5 million b/d in 2019 (-3.5%). However, by December 2021, diesel demand was 20.6 million b/d, an increase of 12% compared with December 2022.
As pandemic induced travel restrictions ease, and travel and mobility patterns return closer to pre-pandemic levels, demand for petroleum products is likely to continue current recovery trends into 2022.
