New IEF Report Highlights Growing Importance of LNG Market Security as Global Trade Expands
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 14 September 2026 - The International Energy Forum (IEF) today released Global LNG Market Security, a new report prepared in collaboration with the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC), examining the changing structure of global liquefied natural gas markets and the implications for energy security, affordability and market resilience.
IEF-JOGMEC study finds LNG trade could reach around 800 bcm by 2031, while supply concentration, infrastructure constraints and maritime chokepoints underline the need for greater market resilience.
The report finds that, over the past two decades, LNG has evolved from a supplementary source of natural gas into a strategic component of the global energy system, connecting producers and consumers across increasingly diverse markets and providing greater flexibility beyond fixed pipeline infrastructure.
Global LNG trade has expanded more than fourfold since 2000, growing from 133 billion cubic meters (bcm) to more than 600 bcm expected in 2026. The report projects trade could reach around 800 bcm by 2031, although the pace of growth remains sensitive to economic conditions, energy prices, infrastructure development and policy.
At the same time, the report finds that growing volumes alone do not necessarily translate into greater energy security. LNG supply remains concentrated among a relatively small group of exporters, while critical infrastructure and shipping capacity require continued investment, and major physical and “virtual” chokepoints impact global LNG market security and affect the speed with which markets respond to volatility and disruptions.
Jassim Alshirawi, Secretary General of the International Energy Forum, said:
"LNG has moved from the margins of the gas market to the center of the global energy security agenda. Its share of global primary energy demand has nearly tripled, while global LNG trade has expanded more than fourfold over the same period."
"The lesson from recent energy shocks is clear; LNG market Resilience is built through investment, spare capacity, diversified relationships, transparent markets and sustained dialogue between producers and consumers."
Harada Daisuke, Director General of Energy Business Unit, and Leader of LNG Information Team, Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC), said:
"LNG remains critically important to the energy security of Japan and many other importing economies, while the market itself is becoming larger, more interconnected and increasingly exposed to geopolitical and supply-chain risks."
"This report demonstrates the value of combining detailed market analysis with international dialogue. Strengthening LNG security will require an appropriate balance between stable long-term procurement and greater flexibility, supported by diversified supply, adequate infrastructure and effective trading capabilities. JOGMEC welcomes its collaboration with the IEF in contributing to a deeper shared understanding of these evolving global market dynamics."
The report develops the first harmonized global bilateral LNG trade dataset covering 144 countries from 2000 to 2024, integrating multiple national and international statistical sources. The dataset provides a consistent historical picture of LNG trade flows and supports projections through 2031.
Among the report's key findings:
- Supply remains highly concentrated even as demand becomes more diverse. The United States, Australia and Qatar accounted for nearly 64% of global LNG exports in 2024, while the number of importing countries has expanded substantially. Market flexibility has increased, but price exposure remains uneven. The 2026 disruption triggered stronger price responses in European and Asian markets than in the United States, while renewed price volatility highlight how tightening LNG balances amplify the impact of sustained disruptions.
- The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical LNG chokepoint. Nearly 20% of global LNG trade transits the Strait. Available spare liquefaction capacity elsewhere has not consistently been sufficient to replace these volumes, with the estimated replacement gap reaching approximately 14 bcm in 2025.
- Exposure to the Strait of Hormuz varies significantly across importing economies. Around 75% of India's LNG imports, 87% of Pakistan's and 71% of Bangladesh's were sourced through Hormuz in 2024. China had a much lower proportional exposure of 22%, but the scale of its imports means disruption can still materially increase competition for replacement cargoes.
- Diversification is not the same as substitutability. Spare liquefaction capacity, feed-gas availability, contractual commitments, shipping, storage and regasification infrastructure all determine how quickly alternative supply can reach affected markets.
- Investment across the whole LNG value chain is critical. Future security depends not only on new liquefaction capacity, but also upstream supply, storage, shipping, ports, regasification terminals and the pipeline networks connecting them.
Ali Alsamawi, Senior Energy Analyst at the IEF and principal author of the report, said:
"We have brought together more than two decades of bilateral LNG trade across 144 countries, giving governments, industry and other stakeholders a clearer picture of how the global LNG market has evolved and where it is heading."
"The LNG market is becoming more global, but not less vulnerable. Demand is diversifying rapidly while supply remains concentrated, an imbalance that will shape the market’s resilience to future disruptions."
"Not every energy chokepoint appears on a map. Feed-gas shortages, domestic supply obligations, regulatory decisions and investment conditions can create virtual bottlenecks just as constraining as physical ones."
The report also examines how risks extend beyond physical maritime chokepoints. Feed-gas availability, domestic supply requirements, regulatory conditions and commercial constraints can operate as "virtual chokepoints", limiting the volume of LNG that can reach international markets even where liquefaction capacity exists.
This distinction is increasingly important as future supply growth remains concentrated. Under the report’s projections, the United States remains the largest LNG exporter through 2031, followed by Qatar and Australia, with the three countries together accounting for approximately two-thirds of projected global supply.
On the demand side, growth is more widely distributed. Among the countries projected to add the most of LNG imports between 2025 and 2031, Türkiye is expected to record by far the strongest relative growth, with imports increasing by approximately 85% above 2025 levels by 2031. India, Pakistan and China follow at a near-identical pace, with imports in each country projected to increase by roughly 50%.
Christof van Agt Ross, Director of Energy Dialogue at the IEF, said:
"The LNG market is global, but disruptions affect regions differently. The 2026 Hormuz disruption creates strong price responses in Europe and Asia, while developing economies are often priced out of the market, underscoring the market’s growing sensitivity to the duration of disruptions and tightening global LNG balances."
"LNG market security and resilience will depend on the strength of international cooperation to stimulate trade and investment, more diversified partnerships and greater regional market integration to cover risk, strengthen reliability, and improve affordability."
The report highlights the increasing interaction between LNG market security and broader economic trends. Rising electricity demand, data centers and AI-enabled services, advanced manufacturing and energy-intensive industries are creating additional sources of power and gas demand, while energy prices increasingly affect industrial competitiveness and investment decisions.
The study concludes that future LNG security will increasingly depend on sustained investment, diversified supply relationships, flexible contractual and shipping arrangements, adequate storage and regasification capacity, transparent market information and stronger international coordination.
It also highlights the importance of regional cooperation, including cross border investment and market integration and shared approaches to storage and emergency procurement, strengthening resilience while reducing lead times and costs.
About Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC)
JOGMEC is committed to securing stable supplies of resources and energy to Japan and to achieving carbon neutrality. In 7 types of projects - oil and natural gas, hydrogen, CCS, geothermal, offshore wind power, metals, and coal - we support Japanese companies in acquiring interests by conducting eight businesses, including geological surveys, marine resource development, technological development, and financial assistance.
