The S&P Global Platts Oil Security Sentinel is an interactive editorial project that explores the changing relationship between geopolitical risk and the price of crude. The analysis shows how diversity of supply, higher levels of global spare capacity and the expansion of strategic petroleum reserves have helped to insulate markets from the risk of supply disruptions.
However, oil supply has become less responsive to a demand recovery. A protracted fall in E&P investment, changing return on capital, and environmental and social governance preferences erodes security of supply. Contrary to what high inventory levels and spare capacity indicate today, oil markets may be tightening faster than long-term visions on peak demand imply.
What does the new market and risk environment imply for critical oil infrastructure and safe passage on maritime shipping lanes? Could incidents cause already elevated price levels to spike? Will energy market volatility increase with an untimely return of geopolitical risk premiums?
Platts will introduce the key findings of the S&P Global Platts Oil Security Sentinel Project followed by an update on the IEF Post-COVID Recovery Energy Monitor and findings of the IEF-BCG report on Oil and Gas Sector Investment in the New Risk Environment. Discussions will assess if existing oil market security mechanisms, from investment, storage and spare capacity to data transparency, safe passage, and cyber resilience are adequate, and what issues warrant closer scrutiny.