Global LNG Market Security

Overview

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) has become an increasingly important component of global energy trade, enabling natural gas to be transported beyond the constraints of pipeline infrastructure and strengthening the integration of geographically distant producers and consumers. Alongside its expanding role in energy systems, LNG has been positioned both as a transition fuel in decarbonization pathways and as a strategic asset for enhancing energy security. However, recent supply disruptions, price volatility, and geopolitical tensions expose vulnerabilities in global LNG markets, highlighting growing interdependence between exporters and importers while raising important questions about the resilience of future demand and supply expansion.

This IEF report contributes to deepening producer-consumer market insight by developing the first global harmonized and balanced bilateral LNG trade dataset spanning 2000-2024, covering trade flows among 144 countries at the country-pair level. The dataset integrates multiple national and international statistical sources through a systematic harmonization framework to produce a consistent historical record of global LNG trade. This database provides the basis for projecting trade flows through 2031. The work incorporates projections of economic activity and population growth, planned LNG infrastructure expansion, shipping capacity, historical patterns of natural gas use in electricity generation, and key energy demand indicators.

The analysis indicates that global LNG demand is expected to remain strong and increase through 2031, with the pace of growth varying substantially with macroeconomic conditions. By combining a harmonized historical trade database with a transparent framework to inform projections, this report provides a comprehensive assessment of evolving global LNG trade patterns and offers new insights into their implications for energy security, market development, and broader energy and climate policy objectives.

"LNG has moved from the margins of the gas market to the center of the global energy security agenda. Its share of global primary energy demand has nearly tripled, while global LNG trade has expanded more than fourfold over the same period."

Jassim Alshirawi
Secretary General, IEF

Key Findings

Key findings of the report include:

• Natural gas now powers around one in every four units of electricity generated worldwide.
• Gas-fired generation has grown nearly 1.5 times faster than electricity demand over the past two decades.
• Energy security concerns increased LNG’s strategic role, positioning it as a new growing pillar of global energy security.
• Global LNG trade grows by an average of 6% per year, expanding more than fourfold over just 26 years.
• LNG supply remains concentrated while demand continues to diversify, creating an asymmetric market structure.
• Diversification has strengthened resilience, but physical and “virtual” chokepoints continue to shape LNG supply security.
• Direct exposure varies by market, but vulnerability is shaped by both concentration and scale.
• The global LNG market transmits shocks widely, but their price effects diverge sharply across regions.
• Near-term growth in global LNG demand remains robust despite substantial uncertainty in future geoeconomic, policy and regulatory conditions.
• Regional dialogue and cooperation on global LNG market trends, strengthens energy security and reduces exposure to market volatility and disruptions.

Key Charts

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