IEF-Bank of Canada Workshop on Commodity Cycles and their Implications
Ottawa, Canada
The Secretary General of the of the International Energy Forum (IEF), Aldo Flores-Quiroga opened the IEF-Bank of Canada Workshop on Commodity Cycles and their Implications that was jointly organised with the Bank of Canada on 25 April 2016 in Ottawa, Canada. The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, Timothy Lane concluded the meeting on behalf of the hosting organisation.
The Workshop discussed recent developments across various commodity markets and evaluated their implications for economic stability and oil market security. Accomplished academics and practitioners presented their research findings and insights in three sessions moderated by Cesaire Meh, Chief International Economic Analysis of the Bank of Canada, Timothy Lane, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, and Adam Sieminski, Administrator of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (see below detailed agenda including research papers and presentations).
In the First Session, "Technological Advancement and Commodity Dynamics", discussants addressed how technology advancements have affected commodity cycles and to what extent these explain recent market fluctuations.
The Second Session, "Distributional Effects of Commodity Shocks", focused on how commodity price shocks affect welfare across different countries and economic sectors. Participants discussed the role of monetary policy in the face of commodity shocks.
The Third Session, "Implications of Oil Market Shocks", assessed the impact of pronounced oil market movements across industries, labour markets, and individual countries, in an effort to identify the factors that determine how countries respond to commodity market fluctuations.
The Secretary General of the International Energy Forum concluded the Workshop with a moderated panel discussion on Swing Production and The Role of Credit among senior industry and financial sector practitioners. Panelists discussed the impact of credit markets on production and the changing dynamics in spare capacity and storage between producing and consuming countries.
The meeting was governed by the Chatham House Rule and participation was by invitation only. To find out more, please contact Christof van Agt, Senior Energy Analyst, IEF (Christof.vanagt@ief.org) or Mr Bahattin Buyuksahin, Policy Adviser, Commodities, Bank of Canada (bbuyuksahin@bank-banque-canada.ca).
Session I: Technological Advancement and Commodity Dynamics
Session Moderator: Cesaire Meh, Chief- International Economic Analysis, Bank of Canada
Presentations
- Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan, "The Impact of the Shale Oil on Oil Prices and Arab Oil Producers"
- John Baffes, World Bank, "The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences and Policy Responses"
- Martin Stuermer, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, "Industrialization and the Demand for Mineral Commodities"
Research Papers
- Lutz Kilian, "The Impact of the Fracking Boom on Arab Oil Producers"
- John Baffes, M Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Marc Stocker, "The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses"
- Martin Stuermer, "Industrialization and the Demand for Mineral Commodities"
Session II: Distributional Effects of Commodity Shocks
Session Moderator: Timothy Lane, Deputy Governor, Bank of Canada
Presentations
- Michael Wetzstein, Purdue University, "U.S. Ethanol Demand and World Hunger: Is There Any Connection?"
- Catherine Hausman, University of Michigan, "Welfare and Distributional Implications of Shale Gas"
- Luis A.V. Catão , IMF, "World food prices and monetary policy"
Research Papers
- Hao, N., Pedroni, P., Colson, G., Wetzstein, M, "The Linkage between the U.S. Ethanol Market and World Hunger: A Panel SVAR Analysis"
- Catherine Hausman, Ryan Kellogg, "Welfare and Distributional Implications Of Shale Gas"
- Luis Catão, Roberto Chang, "World Food Prices and Monetary Policy"
Session III: Implications of Oil Market Shocks
Session Moderator: Adam Sieminski, Administrator, U.S. Energy Information Administration
Presentations
- Kenneth J. McKenzie, University of Calgary, "Going Dutch? The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Canadian Economy"
- Anna-Maria Herrera, University of Kentucky, "Where Do Jobs Go When Oil Prices Drop?"
- Michele Cavallo, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, "Oil Price Elasticities and Oil Price Fluctuations"
Research Papers
- Dario Caldara, Matteo Iacoviello, Michele Cavallo, "Oil Price Elasticities and Oil Price Fluctuations"
- Anna-Maria Herrera, "Where Do Jobs Go When Oil Prices Drop?"
Session IV: Panel: Swing Production and the Role of Credit
Session Moderator: Aldo Flores-Quiroga, Secretary General, International Energy Forum
Presentations
- Michael Cohen, Barclays Capital
- David Fyfe, Head of Market Research, Gunvor Group
- Adam Sieminski, Administrator, U.S. Energy Information Administration
- Hilary Till, University of Colorado Denver Business School
- Anthony Yuen, Global Energy Strategist, Citi Research
